The Really Useless Thread | Page 7395 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Really Useless System 25 replies

Bloomberg: VIX Indicator useless for forecasting the direction of equity prices 0 replies

The Really Really Boring Forex System 97 replies

Attachments: The Really Useless Thread
Exit Attachments

The Really Useless Thread

  • #147,881
  • Feb 24, 2017 10:49am Feb 24, 2017 10:49am
Quoting hoom
{quote} The Conservative Political Action Conference is an annual political conference attended by conservative activists and elected officials from across the United States He made the same show as everytime : wall , bad dudes , fake news , how big he won then how massive the tax reforms will be and less regulation because nobody loves regulation like that in the US etc...
Was expecting it ... Anyways have a good weekend to u and all the members of the thread
Re-Incarnated
  • #147,882
  • Feb 24, 2017 11:14am Feb 24, 2017 11:14am
"Take my wife... please"

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...-a7597221.html
  • #147,883
  • Feb 24, 2017 12:00pm Feb 24, 2017 12:00pm
...eyes on Euro ... we may be witnessing the start of a clean sweep. Tracking very closely the close today...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,884
  • Feb 24, 2017 12:11pm Feb 24, 2017 12:11pm
Donald Trump scares the life out of me
Appeals to ordinary working class American to get elected
Total distrust of the media
Hates China. Steve Bannon (his right hand man) said that the US will most likley go to war with China in the next 10 years. Now Trump says he's going to build up the US military
Surely there should be some psycho-analytical profiling in place before someone is allowed to run for President.
No wonder all the banks are short UJ.
  • #147,885
  • Edited 12:37pm Feb 24, 2017 12:25pm | Edited 12:37pm
Quoting Replicant
"Take my wife... please" http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...-a7597221.html
Thats the irony of this current nationalist chest-beating U.S.A, etc that it doesn't make any sense in America. If they apply the same rules they are trying to introduce right now retroactively , over 1/2 (and more if we go over 3er generation migration) of the most important businesses in the US would have ever existed.

From the almighty and untouchable Apple (for those unaware Steve Jobs come from a Syrian refugee background) to the first lady, and most of the key business in the richest States in the US from FL, CA and obviously NY ...doesn't matter if they were a Jew refugee, Irish escaping a famine or an honest Mexican selling Tacos and paying his taxes....

America became great because its diversity and respect from different cultures and countries. As long as you pay your taxes, respect freedom and democratic values, the rule of law and do and mind your own business is all fine ...only now we have this new non sense trend that being American implies something else. ...

I still believe the core and real US will prevail at the end ....for now copy/paste from a banana republic / third world country populist policies....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,886
  • Edited 1:50pm Feb 24, 2017 1:30pm | Edited 1:50pm
Daily: Baby bear under 580, Mama bear 560, Papa bear under 540
Weekly: Papa bear sleeps under 520.
Where will Goldilocks sleep tonight?
  • #147,887
  • Edited 2:16pm Feb 24, 2017 1:49pm | Edited 2:16pm
Quoting goosebone
Daily: Baby bear under 580, Papa bear at 530 Weekly: Papa bear sleeps under 520. Where will Goldilocks sleep tonight?
When these boards are empty and quiet thinking that is business as usual but you can clearly see major moves on the making ...you know that we are about to witness something special...

We'll see in a few. Euro losing 1.055x for the close will trigger major alerts across the FX board....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,888
  • Feb 24, 2017 1:53pm Feb 24, 2017 1:53pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} When these boards are empty and quite thinking that is business as usual but you can clearly see major moves on the making ...you know that we are about to witness something special... We'll see in a few. Euro losing 1.055x for the close will trigger major alerts across the FX board.... sisse
I am a big fan of major alerts.
  • #147,889
  • Feb 24, 2017 2:01pm Feb 24, 2017 2:01pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} I am a big fan of major alerts.
lol me too , it has been a nice week for trading euro apart from the headline that came from France elections as a surprise , I am waiting for a WTF moment to put the cherry on top
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #147,890
  • Feb 24, 2017 2:04pm Feb 24, 2017 2:04pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} I am a big fan of major alerts.
They prolly already hear us and won't make it that simple ..je je je ... for real it looks rather difficult to be honest as we are set for a rather uneventful close in US equities. Real money wont buy (S&P for reference) at the close but rather settle around this area for the M close and therefore Euro will go to bed around 1.057x ....we'll see in a few

More interesting and prolly the only important level to track for the rest of the month across all markets is US Equities (S&P 2347/5.x for reference) as it will not only carry the board in the mid term but will clear the map for March FED hikes play ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,891
  • Feb 24, 2017 2:07pm Feb 24, 2017 2:07pm
Honestly , whenever I take a look into the EURUSD thread [which I do once in quarter at most ] , I feel like I was sent back in time when I have seen a euro chart for the first time . I feel for the old members still posting the same superficial analysis in there .

Keep the good stuff coming folks and have a nice weekend .
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #147,892
  • Edited 2:47pm Feb 24, 2017 2:25pm | Edited 2:47pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} They prolly already hear us and won't make it that simple ..je je je ... for real it looks rather difficult to be honest as we are set for a rather uneventful close in US equities. Real money wont buy (S&P for reference) at the close but rather settle around this area for the M close and therefore Euro will go to bed around 1.057x ....we'll see in a few More interesting and prolly the only important level to track for the rest of the month across all markets is US Equities (S&P 2347/5.x for reference) as it will not only carry the board...
Watching that for sure. I'm short SPY via some puts at the moment. Wouldnt mind a little black monday (doubt it) since I missed the last one as I was young enough to be chasing chicks not charts. Looked like things were kind of lined up this morning for risk off to my noob eyes, still does honestly (treasuries up, Yen up, dollar skittish, Equities everywhere skittish, gold on the move). I might be looking too hard for it. If I look hard enough I can see whatever I want to. It's reading guys like you and Gator and all the contributors here (where the Ph*k is Ph*rmor?) that keep it in perspective for me.
Watching W close with one eye since I see what you mean about the M close bringing us back.
Good weekend all.
  • #147,893
  • Feb 24, 2017 2:55pm Feb 24, 2017 2:55pm
Strong closing range in US equities . They bought it at the end ...sneaky bastards...

Quoting goosebone
{quote} Watching that for sure. I'm short SPY via some puts at the moment.....
For a directional trade like that you may want to peak at calendar spreads instead in this particular case 'cause of French election and hikes...but that's just at a quick glance. Maybe @The Fool will give you a better insight as he is the guy around here for options... GL

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,894
  • Feb 24, 2017 3:08pm Feb 24, 2017 3:08pm
Quoting sisse
Strong closing range in US equities . They bought it at the end ...sneaky bastards... {quote} For a directional trade like that you may want to peak at calendar spreads instead in this particular case 'cause of French election and hikes...but that's just at a quick glance. Maybe @The Fool will give you a better insight as he is the guy around here for options... GL sisse
Yes I've picked his brain on the subject of spreads to all ends over in the LTO thread. Very patient and helpful to understate it. Still working that demo. This one is a one off small risk small probability attempt at picking a top. They don't work often you are right. Death by a thousand cuts if I did that all the time. But it won't be death by one cut so I'll try it. Once.
  • #147,895
  • Feb 24, 2017 3:10pm Feb 24, 2017 3:10pm
I am eyeing the FOMC/Dutch elections week (the Ides of March!) for short index spreads, but I have not spent much money on those setups yet. Best recent trades have been bullish weekly SPX and SPY call spreads, milking the bull grindup. Also have bullish gold spreads that look promising, in profit above gold $1,250 generally, expiring FOMC week and the end of Q1. No long vol setups. I see dark clouds on the horizon but I don't think there are any really decisive event horizons until perhaps the French elections, the rest are wild cards waiting to pop out and impossible to time. Dark clouds don't always produce rain and can blow over.....in Q1 so far I have mostly just sat on cash.

Goose you can see some short index directional ideas via SPY and SPX put spreads over on LTO thread - there are some really cheap set-ups now with the iv's so low, ping me over there if you have any questions.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #147,896
  • Feb 24, 2017 3:11pm Feb 24, 2017 3:11pm
Quoting sisse
Strong closing range in US equities . They bought it at the end ...sneaky bastards...

lol...

je je je, same level, same trades, same all...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #147,897
  • Feb 24, 2017 3:14pm Feb 24, 2017 3:14pm
Quoting The Fool
I am eyeing the FOMC/Dutch elections week (the Ides of March!) for short index spreads, but I have not spent much money on those setups yet. Best recent trades have been bullish weekly SPX and SPY call spreads, milking the bull grindup. Also have bullish gold spreads that look promising, in profit above gold $1,250 generally, expiring FOMC week and the end of Q1. No long vol setups. I see dark clouds on the horizon but I don't think there are any really decisive event horizons until perhaps the French elections, the rest are wild cards waiting to...
Headed there now. Thanks man.
  • #147,898
  • Feb 24, 2017 3:39pm Feb 24, 2017 3:39pm
...that was it for the week.

Euro set to roll in a slightly bullish W close but a fresh bearish daily roll...the textbook of the noisy chop zone we have formed this year.

More importantly we have a fresh level in play in the Euro (and in a few majors across the board). 1.052x emerging as the rain maker before ECB/FED March combo.

We have a light next week in terms of news so expecting a rather technical week ahead of the ECB/FED with the usual hiccups from the Trump/Brexiters and Murdoch press Co / fake news flooding the mainstream and social media headlines cheerleading for Le Pen to join the nationalistic bandwagon and make the EU and China to collapse in the background....

Lots of action expected in the upcoming weeks but for now not much to see or do with same levels, same trades, same all...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,899
  • Feb 25, 2017 11:58am Feb 25, 2017 11:58am
Quoting sisse
{quote} I disagree with you. BTC is in its infancy. Its a paper-thin unregulated market with barely any 'serious' money flowing on it. It epitomise a case of extreme risk instrument not the opposite. Don't get me wrong. I am not with the Dinosaurs (particularly active now in policy making in the UK and US economic front) on Cryptocurrencies. I think they will be a essential part of the monetary system in the long run one way or the other. How? Not sure yet. When? Don't know [most people don't] but guarantee is not now. BTC and all the derivates...
Alright fair point, perhaps pointing gold as risk asset first and BTC as capital outflow bypass asset first should be better. Small size and low historical data is defenetly something that isnt attractive for risk parking, ill note that in future.
  • #147,900
  • Feb 25, 2017 12:08pm Feb 25, 2017 12:08pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} If I look hard enough I can see whatever I want to.
That might be one of the most important quotes for chartist to remember, and fundy catalysts aswell. As for charting my rule is if i dont see it nearly instantly, its most likely not what i am looking for, otherwise it often leads to pattern/curve fitting becouse one wants it too. This was one significant point i realized that i need significant amount of assets to trade (equities mainly fill that) to have macros otherwise personality of little hopping monkey like myself just gets you in micro overtrading.
There are traders that are very patient and organized and they are fine and can swipe that quote of the table, and then there are those that need to hold and grab that for life in order not to drown.
54 traders viewing now