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The Really Useless Thread

  • #147,841
  • Feb 22, 2017 12:43pm Feb 22, 2017 12:43pm
For the actual flows (if any) will take @primejarvis and @Earleone for today's reference in the thread:

@primejarvis

Direct -> 1.056x -> 1.047x

@Earleone

Direct -> 1.061x -> TP1 1.049 -> TP2 1.039X

@Fadhl

Zigzag 1.054 -> 1.045 -> 1.066 -> 1.078 and up to 1.10 (Out of range for such a micro play)

GL all trading, already in trades or simple tracking how we close today.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,842
  • Feb 22, 2017 12:54pm Feb 22, 2017 12:54pm
Inline: Hawkish .0540-->.058X-->.048X
Inline: Very Hawkish .054X to .048X to .034X (Within 5 days)

Flop/Dovish: .054X --> .0610 -->.068X
  • #147,843
  • Feb 22, 2017 1:16pm Feb 22, 2017 1:16pm
TP changed to .04000... Good luck guys ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #147,844
  • Feb 22, 2017 1:40pm Feb 22, 2017 1:40pm
Quoting sisse
Europe going home with a last minute news from France. More good news for EZ Equities that are getting flood from every front with positive signs. Euro on a quick soft knee jerk reaction on a 'perfectly' timed area inches before bulls were wiped out.... For now that its pretty much it until the Minutes later. We are literally 1 election and 1/2 (French and Dutch) away from major changes in long and mid term outlook in the Euro.... {quote} No indicator, just plainly tracking the 2 Years in both.... basic measure of short term risk and current/upcoming...

thanks sisse for your input.. you gave me some stuff to research... i didn't mean indicator as in something you can apply to the chart... but I was asking indication as in what do you look for when watching said bond( bunds and 2yr) ... I also noticed once that France news came out. Bunds sold off and Euro rose and it made me think of an earlier comment you made about euro being used as a safe haven... so it was pretty cool seeing that correlation and understanding why it happened. But it was so peculiar that when you mentioned the go ahead comment and once I asked that question about bonds ... bam... news spike came out... makes you wonder self fulfilling prophecy or not! Did we need the comment from France for that spike to happen? Hmmmm... Guess Bulls found a way...!
  • #147,845
  • Feb 22, 2017 1:44pm Feb 22, 2017 1:44pm
Hawkish inline with expectations. Odds for hikes March will keep moving higher with one final push left to trigger the core of the move.

However, hikes for Q2 will start pricing nearby to a 'done deal' as early as the M close.

Tracking the close for reference only in Dollar (and Euro).

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,846
  • Feb 22, 2017 2:33pm Feb 22, 2017 2:33pm
Quoting IMARICH1
I don't understand the bonds either roobii. Sometimes you look at treasuries then 10 yr bonds and ect. I am glad you asked but not sure how it correlates w German Bunds. Anyone see the news w France and election candidates? Is this why EU is acting like a toddler again when we were at the .0500 handle or just Bulls protecting it?

yea bonds is the next thing in regards to risk that i want to research to help with analyzing money flows.... so slowly researching it especially with the info sisse gave me
  • #147,847
  • Feb 22, 2017 3:55pm Feb 22, 2017 3:55pm
...and we are rolling with a slightly bearish close with bulls barely holding but holding at the end. No capitulation so far and the tide is at its very high, bears will need to break or do a bit more than these soft moves this year before is too late...

On the rest if the board nothing to update in an uneventful inline Minutes.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,848
  • Feb 22, 2017 6:54pm Feb 22, 2017 6:54pm
One look at inflation expectations in the US.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #147,849
  • Feb 23, 2017 5:26am Feb 23, 2017 5:26am
Bitcoin closely to hit news again while approaching ath, tracking 1143 today/tomorrow for possible poper play.
  • #147,850
  • Feb 23, 2017 6:47am Feb 23, 2017 6:47am
Uneventful European morning across the board. However we started to get some information from the talking heads in the US about the tax and fiscal plan.

->As some analyst and experts on the White House has been arguing, the noisy and very vocal plans are starting to clash with reality.

->The tax plan fading away in the horizon for late Q3 and with zero details as its becoming obvious the technical inconsistencies and legal hurdles in between.

->Honeymoon keep evaporating and so far we haven't (we won't for while for the look of it) got any real policy plan in the economic front.

-> For now strong macro numbers overruling (as it should) but lack of content in the economic front, self impose political risk and imminent rate hikes are already knocking the front door.

The high of the Quarter (and prolly the year) is around the corner in US equities.

Eyes on NY.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,851
  • Feb 23, 2017 9:05am Feb 23, 2017 9:05am
Added some more s/l 1.0595 ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #147,852
  • Feb 23, 2017 9:39am Feb 23, 2017 9:39am
Quoting primejarvis
Added some more s/l 1.0595 ...
Isn't most expected return to our last important level at 1.061x? at least I do
  • #147,853
  • Feb 23, 2017 9:43am Feb 23, 2017 9:43am
[quote=IMARICH1;9587649]Inline: Hawkish .0540(check)-->.058X(check)-->.048X
  • #147,854
  • Feb 23, 2017 9:56am Feb 23, 2017 9:56am
Quoting Grinsakh
{quote} Isn't most expected return to our last important level at 1.061x? at least I do
Might be ... Just took a risk nothing else ... Everything is possible .... In this industry
Re-Incarnated
  • #147,855
  • Feb 23, 2017 9:59am Feb 23, 2017 9:59am
I guess I got my eyes on 610/633 area intraday since a break above that might shake up my thoughts on (extremely) short term action but barring that I don't think bouncing around here shows us much.
  • #147,856
  • Feb 23, 2017 10:54am Feb 23, 2017 10:54am
Quoting goosebone
I guess I got my eyes on 610/633 area intraday since a break above that might shake up my thoughts on (extremely) short term action but barring that I don't think bouncing around here shows us much.
Do you play UJ too? I'm still trying to scale in from 112,65 (112,3x using as SL) towards 114 but risk is kicking me back again and again. I'm thinking whether hike will actually help in this, or risk will prevail... we shall see
  • #147,857
  • Feb 23, 2017 10:55am Feb 23, 2017 10:55am
Quoting goosebone
I guess I got my eyes on 610/633 area intraday since a break above that might shake up my thoughts on (extremely) short term action but barring that I don't think bouncing around here shows us much.
there are some changes in the making FA and TA wise , in a nutshell :

* the risk from France election reduced due to the latest headlines [Macron gaining ground against Le pen...]
*the expectations on fiscal policy from Trump administration has become more blurry thus uncertainty about the tax reform and economic plans in the US
*March hike expectations are stalling for now and speculators are a little bit on the defense due to what happened last year.
*TA[euro] bears couldn't break down especially closes under 1.050x handle are extremely important for the capitulation move and the price action lately alongside momentum didn't prove solid for such move to happen.

Conclusion , the path of least resistance is going/about to change at this pace of events.
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #147,858
  • Edited 4:14pm Feb 23, 2017 12:15pm | Edited 4:14pm
Quoting hoom
{quote} there are some changes in the making FA and TA wise , in a nutshell : * the risk from France election reduced due to the latest headlines [Macron gaining ground against Le pen...] *the expectations on fiscal policy from Trump administration has become more blurry thus uncertainty about the tax reform and economic plans in the US *March hike expectations are stalling for now and speculators are a little bit on the defense due to what happened last year. *TA[euro] bears couldn't break down especially closes under 1.050x handle are extremely...
Looks like France is wait and see. March Fed is wait and see too it appears as, like you say, expectations are mixed and hesitant. Fiscal Policy expectations are wait and see also like I was saying over the weekend. I agree could be a shift in the making. Hard telling much about that at current levels imo. Only that there is no definitive and obvious flow to it short term.

On the TA point, 1.05 handle held for FOMC. But I don't know that this means it will hold for good and end the leg. I guess I'm not feeling we are running out of time for that as much as others here. Could be that I'm not wholly convinced that French elections will give *Euro a foothold. I can see it happening both ways.
  • #147,859
  • Feb 23, 2017 12:54pm Feb 23, 2017 12:54pm
Quoting sisse
On the FX board nothing new with Euro struggling a lot at these levels but GOLD is still the one leading the board. The leg is getting too crowded already for my taste I would rather it fly rather quickly above 1250 [check] to leave just dust behind instead of entering in a sluggish ride...
Quoting sisse
.... Tracking Gold to complete first mid term target. Euro still holding. Equities unimpressed. sisse

...and I will take that in Gold for the commodities close. Clearing first mid term target on the test 1250.xx. Extremely happy here with that trade....Well done all that rode it...I know a few here....

On the rest of the board, a rather uneventful day with Oil just held by a vey paper thin roof and it's more than cook to be the next one in line of fire.
-----

A quick accountability post for those who called the flows yesterday:

Shorts triggered for @primejarvis and the 'zig' short part @Fadhl (look awfully wrong flow call but still in play) barely holding (1.061x stops by default to keep a consistent and realistic r:r) but holding at the end.... so all still in play

@primejarvis

Direct -> 1.056x [check] -> 1.047x

@Earleone

Direct -> 1.061x [not triggered yet] -> TP1 1.049 -> TP2 1.039X

@Fadhl

Zigzag 1.054 [check] -> 1.045 -> 1.066 -> 1.078 and up to 1.10 (Out of range for such a micro play)

GL all trading, already in trades or simple tracking how we close today.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,860
  • Feb 23, 2017 12:55pm Feb 23, 2017 12:55pm
Quoting Grinsakh
{quote} Do you play UJ too? I'm still trying to scale in from 112,65 (112,3x using as SL) towards 114 but risk is kicking me back again and again. I'm thinking whether hike will actually help in this, or risk will prevail... we shall see
I don't. I have decided to focus on one pair for better or worse. When I start looking around a lot sometimes i end up picking up a machine gun and shooting everything that moves so for now i limit my scope. I look but I don't touch.
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