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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #3,441
  • Feb 22, 2017 11:46am Feb 22, 2017 11:46am
Quoting Lock
Note that C period tested above the last 3 pit sessions bracket high. Add current last 3 pit sessions bracket low is weak at 2405: in fact yes preUS tagged there Friday pit low. When you failed above a balance (and a bracket is a form of balance) then the natural direction is the opposite side of it. This does not mean we have to go there but if it will do it, we could consider it absolutely normal and expected.
great to hear from you again lock, glad to know that the situation I was reading into in regards to c period failure was indeed a tradeable situation. that's a big step forward for me now its just learning how to pull the trigger on it.. if you can when your wrapped up for the day shed any light on my question about waitin for period closes in regards to execution I feel this may be what I'm misunderstanding and is hindering me.

thank you again for you daily commentary, I have learnt so much today. and a big thank you for just now going over what the tradeable predicaments were in this session I am very grateful. would it be fair to say that in regard to the E period failure above D one would only be looking for a small portion of a move as expectation to the downside is diminished given the current factors and the more asymmetrical opportunity to take would have been the C period failure?

I always end up typing so many lil questions I am so sorry lol >< >< ><
I am learning so much here I think its getting me a lil excited
  • #3,442
  • Feb 22, 2017 11:50am Feb 22, 2017 11:50am
Quoting Lock
{quote} I mean: carry this information forward in case of shake out or in case of acceptation below 24437 (one of our major reference for today).
24437.. current session low?
  • #3,443
  • Feb 22, 2017 11:51am Feb 22, 2017 11:51am
Quoting Lock
Note that C period tested above the last 3 pit sessions bracket high. Add current last 3 pit sessions bracket low is weak at 2405: in fact yes preUS tagged there Friday pit low. When you failed above a balance (and a bracket is a form of balance) then the natural direction is the opposite side of it. This does not mean we have to go there but if it will do it, we could consider it absolutely normal and expected.
you mean long at 2405?
  • #3,444
  • Feb 22, 2017 11:53am Feb 22, 2017 11:53am
The go/no go level for this action downside is clearly 23975 that as written before many times is the half back of the entire move downside (pit) from 06.12.2016. If reached we could find short term and even mid term traders below it: both sellers or buyers. So watch out in the case. We could see a substantial acceleration below it or a substantial retracement. If only tagged or not reached we could only have a short covering and not new serious money buying.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #3,445
  • Feb 22, 2017 12:10pm Feb 22, 2017 12:10pm
24225 is GB low but also overnight low: a day timeframe reference. We need acceptation below it for any meaningfull continuation downside. If not, a failure below ON low is a good spot for a new buy. But watch out , because current value is developing overlapping to lower from yesterday pit value. So a buy there will be against developing value. It has to work quickly to succeed. If you will see a grinding reaction be aware of the risk occurring going against value.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #3,446
  • Feb 22, 2017 12:19pm Feb 22, 2017 12:19pm
Quoting Piphunter00
{quote} 24437.. current session low?
No, it is a short term reference. It is the first weekly balance high after the major break of 02.10.16
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #3,447
  • Feb 22, 2017 12:22pm Feb 22, 2017 12:22pm
Quoting titi14
{quote} you mean long at 2405?
I mean that current action could last to this level (last 3 pit sessions bracket low) in order to test it after the failure above the last 3 pit sessions bracket high. Then, yes, if we will not see acceptation below it, it could be a possible spot for a day timeframe buy. But, again, at that moment in time value will be at least overlapping to lower from yesterday pit value, so a possible long there should be fast to succeed: a very risky position. You should be ready to liquidate immediately if the long fails. It is not a trade for those who like to marry a position.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #3,448
  • Feb 22, 2017 12:26pm Feb 22, 2017 12:26pm
1.2389 will be tested
trading GoldH4, EuroH1, and PoundH1 Futures and FX skype:fxtraderpro1
  • #3,449
  • Feb 22, 2017 12:27pm Feb 22, 2017 12:27pm
Remember also to monitor this:

Quoting Lock
Note USDX testing the half back 101.53 of the last major bracket: it could fail or be accepted above it. In any case it could heavily influence cable because it is a short/mid term level for USDX
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #3,450
  • Feb 22, 2017 12:31pm Feb 22, 2017 12:31pm
Quoting carguychase
1.2389 will be tested
Well, it could be. If we get acceptation below overnight low and below other references. It is the pit session low from 02.15 meaning the lowest pit low of the last 11 pit sessions. In any case I suggest to take the market a piece at a time.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #3,451
  • Feb 22, 2017 1:07pm Feb 22, 2017 1:07pm
Quoting Lock
Take also note of the fact that E period high is weak as it was the last period of London and it perfectly tagged yesterday GB close at 24633. An other weak reference in case of shake out. (and it is also very close to the composite poc 2464 that as written many times will tend to attract price.)
No acceptation below GB low (overnight low) and here we are at 24633 and 2464 composite poc.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #3,452
  • Feb 22, 2017 1:11pm Feb 22, 2017 1:11pm
Well, I'm off. Have a nice continuation. Best L.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #3,453
  • Feb 22, 2017 1:17pm Feb 22, 2017 1:17pm
Quoting Lock
Well, I'm off. Have a nice continuation. Best L.
Blessings lock! Thank you for your guidance.
  • #3,454
  • Feb 22, 2017 1:18pm Feb 22, 2017 1:18pm
We're going back short now, Gold is going back down, USD is going up.
trading GoldH4, EuroH1, and PoundH1 Futures and FX skype:fxtraderpro1
  • #3,455
  • Feb 22, 2017 1:55pm Feb 22, 2017 1:55pm
Quoting Lock
Well, I'm off. Have a nice continuation. Best L.
Sorry to bother again lock, I left behind a question in the previous page or two that I feel is a big missing piece for me...

Here's what I said..
C period failed one tick above prior pit high, this is a point of confusion for me. I can get short on a revisit up there two ticks underneath the high but given were C period is likely to close wouldn't that level of retracement of the previous period be unhealthy? Lock when you can spend some time on replying could you please shed some light on this? is this just me thinking like a candle trader and not like a profile trader lol

am I making an error here by waiting on the current period to close to make trade decisions and entries

If you could at your own leisure give me your take on this whenever you can find the time. I understand you are constantly on the go assimilating info and I got a taste of that myself today for sure! So I won't mention it again lol
  • #3,456
  • Feb 22, 2017 2:37pm Feb 22, 2017 2:37pm
Hey Lock,

I want to thank you for your indicators, comments, direction, explanations, help, persistence, patience, generosity and time, THANK YOU.

Zaak.
  • #3,457
  • Edited 2:30am Feb 23, 2017 1:45am | Edited 2:30am
some food for thought for the upcoming session.

we are still in the same old long term balance area, so any meaningful change in market dynamics depends on breaking one of these extremes & accepting above or below. Lock has posted many of the levels that coincide with this bracket but immediate ones for me are the ASIA high from yesterday at 1.2503 and Tuesday GB low which is 1.2400 (seems to me that the market is being kept stuck between the two big figures)

Overnight inventory is net short from GB unch. and we are likely to open up the GB session within range and value of the previous session so first things to note is that we are in a balanced situation till proven otherwise. Not very sure what to expect going forward given the information I have taken in so far. Acceptance below yesterdays GB low could lead us out the bracket

UPDATED THOUGHTS:
Last period of Asia saw a big upsurge and given how A period rocketed past overnight highs tells me inventory is liquidated.
scenarios going forward are 1. the slightly sizeable move of A period is the shorts covering and given that we are in balance and range we just build around this area
2. B-C period make some continuation upwards to previous GB open - high (that would put us above the composite poc Lock has referenced, possible failure scenario aided by the attraction of that level could be attempted in this scenario, also immediate continuation from A period up into those levels could be the move maybe?)
3. Is obviously the complete opposite and we test lows but out of the two extremes of the long term bracket it seems to me that each attempt fails to dig as deep as the last

I also had plotted the downward trendline Lock referenced previously and we are currently sitting above that so monitoring for acceptance is key

the market will tell


cant wait to hear what lock has to say
  • #3,458
  • Feb 23, 2017 2:20am Feb 23, 2017 2:20am
lock, would you say we have some form of a new composite poc with the last couple sessions all being relatively close? asia,preus,and gb are all pretty much on the same level
  • #3,459
  • Feb 23, 2017 2:56am Feb 23, 2017 2:56am
Quoting Piphunter00
{quote} Sorry to bother again lock, I left behind a question in the previous page or two that I feel is a big missing piece for me... Here's what I said.. C period failed one tick above prior pit high, this is a point of confusion for me. I can get short on a revisit up there two ticks underneath the high but given were C period is likely to close wouldn't that level of retracement of the previous period be unhealthy? Lock when you can spend some time on replying could you please shed some light on this? is this...
Who was with any probability ruling the market at that moment in time? This is the question. When a session opened inside the previous one range with any probability the ruling participants are day time frame traders. Wednesday high was a very important day timeframe reference, so, first of all you had to expect a possible reaction there by current market participants. Secondly those particular kind of market participants tend to be reactive in the sense they will generally tend to avoid "experiments" above or below their major boundaries. Day timeframes tend to stay inside balances and brackets, they generally will avoid attempts above or below them. Only if they find stronger participants above or below them they will tend to pile on. But only in the way to add positions aside major timeframes initiative action.

Now, this is the theory. Yesterday C period went higher, tested 2 pips above the day before pit session (not one), find no initiative major participants and immediately went down: you could not be sure of the fact that this retracement will be just fine but the odds were in favour of that possible behaviour, considering the market participants involved.

Let me explain in a better way: 2 pips above that reference you could find bigger buyers or bigger sellers. If bigger buyers you should have seen an immediate acceleration there and you didn't. So what? Maybe also bigger sellers where absent but at a minumum at that moment in time you were sure that no serious buyers where there. Correct? So what again? You should have placed immediately a short because at that moment in time the risk was minimum (no serious buyers there) and the opportunity was asimmetrical, because when we fail above a bracket the first natural target is the opposite side of that one. Sure, it could fail, and no body can assure you about nothing in a market, but the odds were in favour to your short position. And you have to stay always with bigger oddss if you want to survive on the big run.

Now, you were asking me about acceptation: the famous 2 periods closed above or below a particular level in order to get acceptation and consequently continuation in one particular direction. Fine. The answer is: prices are not equal. A break above or below an inside period in a zone where only a particular market participants should be present is a price level totally different from a bracket high or low whre possibly other market participants could be present.

Let's say you are in the middle of the previous session range and let's say you observed the formation f a balance (one period inside an other) if the break occurred above or below you have to place your position (a short or a sell) then monitor for continuation, meaning acceptation above or below balance in order to evaluate if that particular action could continue to strongest references. But if you already are at a strongest reference, as yesterday, because you were already at the top of a bracket than you have to be faster than normal. And if you see an immediate reaction, your reaction too has to be immediate.

Let me conclude with a potent raccomandation: what I described here is only a very small portion of what a prepared trader has to know in case of a breakout. It is not a single data point that could answer your question. Experience is needed and a full understanding of all the other data points is needed too in order to execute a position. And it is literally impossible to explain all this things in a single post or even in a book. And this is exactly the reason for this thread: here multiple different conditions are anlayzed from time to time in order to provide other trader a vast amount of different behaviours, situations, possibilities etc.

I hope it could help. Best L.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #3,460
  • Edited 3:28am Feb 23, 2017 3:05am | Edited 3:28am
Quoting Lock
{quote} Yesterday C period went higher, tested 2 pips above the day before pit session (not one), find no initiative major participants and immediately went down: you could not be sure of the fact that this retracement will be just fine but the odds were in favour of that possible behaviour, considering the market participants involved. Let me explain in a better way: 2 pips above that reference you could find bigger buyers or bigger sellers. If bigger buyers you should have seen an immediate acceleration there and you didn't. So what? Maybe also bigger sellers where absent but at a minumum at that moment in time you were sure that no serious buyers where there. Correct? So what again? You should have placed immediately a short because at that moment in time the risk was minimum (no serious buyers there) and the opportunity was asimmetrical, because when we fail above a bracket the first natural target is the opposite side of that one.
This was a big help thank you so much, and your point on the fact that the market was ruled by weak hands allowing me to be aggressive outside of previous days range because weak hands don't like to play that game makes full sense. I fully understand its all about situational awareness and this is what I'm trying to hone to become second nature. your explanation has made it seem a lot clearer.

So let me test some current observations given this new piece of information.

B period has printed a poor high, couldn't break A period and closed ON or just below the trendline which throws a lot of doubt on if we are accepting so I'm thinking this is short covering like I said before in my possible scenarios. B period also made its rally directly off of the overnight high and half back of A which is another data point supporting weakness. So given these factors if we manage to reach any of the extremes of the previous session or the overnight low would this be a sensible place to put on an aggressive trade with a tight stop and maybe a sort of time stop in mind?

I feel transformed in these last two days Lock god bless you and your talent as a trader
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