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The Really Useless Thread

  • #147,821
  • Feb 21, 2017 12:10pm Feb 21, 2017 12:10pm
Quoting sisse
whole US foreign policy is driven directly by Exxon and a bunch of top executive from OIL companies.
So....whats new?
  • #147,822
  • Feb 21, 2017 12:21pm Feb 21, 2017 12:21pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Yes for fact checking yes. But for short term market reaction/expectation no. There is 3 months in between that, markets will likely price before that risk side for EUR/FR50/bonds on downside if she wins same as we had with Brexit, and reaction can be severe. ....
I am actually looking at the other side. We are inches away from a long term bottom in the Euro. Clearing French election in any combination may give us a strong reaction but to start marking the bottom ....

For now we are still 'far' and with US and dollar in full control. Depending on how much Trump interfere with free markets and information, things may get a lot clearer and sooner than most expect. For now status quo, with Dollar pushing on macro numbers (and rates) and ignoring risk while Euro 'minimising' macro numbers as long as risk from elections (and brexit) is in play.

Its a matter of timing for the risk factors rather than the divergences in macro numbers now. US risk is somewhere later in the year via political instability while in Europe (EZ and UK) we have the date set, defined and already in play....

sisse

Quoting janpec1000
{quote} So....whats new?
je je je well that now they were shameless and put the CEO directly in control while openly sleeping with the Russian Oligarchs on top ... this time is just not hidden ...but hey just blame the Mexicans for that too...
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,823
  • Feb 21, 2017 12:38pm Feb 21, 2017 12:38pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} I am actually looking at the other side. We are inches away from a long term bottom in the Euro. Clearing French election in any combination may give us a strong reaction but to start marking the bottom .... For now we are still 'far' and with US and dollar in full control. Depending on how much Trump interfere with free markets and information, things may get a lot clearer and sooner than most expect. For now status quo, with Dollar pushing on macro numbers (and rates) and ignoring risk while Euro 'minimising' macro numbers as long...
Defenetly a possibility. Those kind of "complex binary" events are often a case of short squeeze so one should defenetly put that in watchlist. You are thinking on this one several steps ahead so i am not gona even pretend to be clear on such scenario, but if we do develop solid environment for it then that will be something to watch for.

US risk yes, date yes. If i got you correct you are thinking dot plots/hikes priced in to certaint extend as long as US data stays in "correct" path, EU data inline, certain pricing in of EZ risk from elections , thus risk scenarios that arent yet priced in for US especially (completly unexpected) the key leading factor once it starts and if. I had US risk factor expected to happen ever since election, but putting date on it is really hard unless i am missing something obvious.

Exxon...ah ye, it goes to previous post some weeks ago when someone said Trump administration has hidden agenda, and my response was not at all. This time its deffirent, its blunt and obvious.

On side note i think you pointed last time for some instrument the same situation, reaction/flip/bottom and it performed (was it GBP?), dont remember what it was, but it could be good case to point it out for others.
  • #147,824
  • Feb 21, 2017 2:04pm Feb 21, 2017 2:04pm
...and we rolled. Irrelevant very bearish close in the Euro. Bulls need a urgent hand to hold this one....for now nothing to see or do.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,825
  • Feb 22, 2017 3:51am Feb 22, 2017 3:51am
Quoting IMARICH1
Goosebone, You may have called that area right as price reacted very quickly there. I was looking for a test of the .0500 handle. It is reasonable to believe we will visit the .058x/.0610 level again prior to Minutes.
Tag. You're it.
  • #147,826
  • Feb 22, 2017 5:04am Feb 22, 2017 5:04am
Yes goosebone the .0500 was tested but didn't pierce thru enough to hit the .048x. I actually closed one of last two positions here. I closed at .0494 since price tested this area before and didnt go further along w knowing we still have the Minutes.

As as I said before, I am not good w capital and reward management. Perhaps, I should have not closed out my 2nd position at this point.

EU is a terrible toddler for me in the past 2 yrs. I can't take it out anywhere as I'm not sure if it is going to behave or throw a fit. Usually, it's the latter.

Goodluck all.
  • #147,827
  • Feb 22, 2017 5:33am Feb 22, 2017 5:33am
Quoting IMARICH1
Yes goosebone the .0500 was tested but didn't pierce thru enough to hit the .048x. I actually closed one of last two positions here. I closed at .0494 since price tested this area before and didnt go further along w knowing we still have the Minutes. As as I said before, I am not good w capital and reward management. Perhaps, I should have not closed out my 2nd position at this point. EU is a terrible toddler for me in the past 2 yrs. I can't take it out anywhere as I'm not sure if it is going to behave or throw a fit. Usually, it's the latter....
If I remember well, a few weeks ago in this thread, we discussed about setting limit stop sell orders to scale in when Euro will loose 1.05 handle as there will be nobody on the buy side.
  • #147,828
  • Edited 6:13am Feb 22, 2017 5:57am | Edited 6:13am
Markets on the move in the European session. Solid sessions keep coming across the board.

Main highlight for today is in the key Bond markets. German and US 2yrs reaching a maximum gap which is not surprising at all giving the current macro and risk environment.

For FX trading, bonds giving the 'is ok' to go ahead in Euro* and Dollar to extend the ranges so we just need to actually trigger the moves. Eyes on a quick opening range to set the mood for the rest of the day until the Minutes.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,829
  • Feb 22, 2017 7:36am Feb 22, 2017 7:36am
Quoting sisse
Markets on the move in the European session. Solid sessions keep coming across the board. Main highlight for today is in the key Bond markets. German and US 2yrs reaching a maximum gap which is not surprising at all giving the current macro and risk environment. For FX trading, bonds giving the 'is ok' to go ahead in Euro* and Dollar to extend the ranges so we just need to actually trigger the moves. Eyes on a quick opening range to set the mood for the rest of the day until the Minutes. sisse
can you give examples or explain this? for future reference what is the indicator watching the bond chart to anticipate a break in range? is it the expectation of bonds selling off? i might be way off but a lil help with this would be great
  • #147,830
  • Feb 22, 2017 7:51am Feb 22, 2017 7:51am
I don't understand the bonds either roobii. Sometimes you look at treasuries then 10 yr bonds and ect. I am glad you asked but not sure how it correlates w German Bunds.

Anyone see the news w France and election candidates? Is this why EU is acting like a toddler again when we were at the .0500 handle or just Bulls protecting it?
  • #147,831
  • Feb 22, 2017 7:53am Feb 22, 2017 7:53am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} [...] Tomorrow (I think it's at 3:30pm GMT), Bayrou, a centrist, will announce if he is candidate to presidential election (expected) or if he supports Macron (less expected). If he backs Macron, that will make things a lot clearer as odds for Macron to go to second round and win over Le Pen will then increase a lot[...]
Bayrou has just proposed an alliance between him and Macron

Quoting IMARICH1
[...] Anyone see the news w France and election candidates? Is this why EU is acting like a toddler again when we were at the .0500 handle or just Bulls protecting it?
I think so (but circus far far from over)
  • #147,832
  • Feb 22, 2017 8:01am Feb 22, 2017 8:01am
Thanks for the info Replicant! I am glad I closed my second position now.

With this news, I wonder if I can get a chance to scale in using my rewards as capital is protected now.
  • #147,833
  • Feb 22, 2017 8:49am Feb 22, 2017 8:49am
Europe going home with a last minute news from France. More good news for EZ Equities that are getting flood from every front with positive signs. Euro on a quick soft knee jerk reaction on a 'perfectly' timed area inches before bulls were wiped out....

For now that its pretty much it until the Minutes later. We are literally 1 election and 1/2 (French and Dutch) away from major changes in long and mid term outlook in the Euro....

Quoting roobii
{quote} can you give examples or explain this? for future reference what is the indicator watching the bond chart to anticipate a break in range? is it the expectation of bonds selling off? i might be way off but a lil help with this would be great
No indicator, just plainly tracking the 2 Years in both.... basic measure of short term risk and current/upcoming rates.

Breakout? very simple just DX 101.7x and / or Euro 1.049x ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,834
  • Feb 22, 2017 9:00am Feb 22, 2017 9:00am
Expecting a test of .056x and then a run below .047x during minutes ... Let's C how it goes
Re-Incarnated
  • #147,835
  • Feb 22, 2017 9:34am Feb 22, 2017 9:34am
Will give a try to scale in with more shorts during fomc minutes and hope for some volatility .

If 1.0608 touched sell stop 1.0600 SL 27 pips
if 1.0636 touched sell stop 1.0628 SL 27 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH1.png Size: 50 KB
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #147,836
  • Edited 10:05am Feb 22, 2017 9:54am | Edited 10:05am
Minutes coming ... Not expecting much for today.

Markets expectations for March hikes are sitting slightly below 40% as for today but we got a hawkish FED last weeks with very strong numbers, particularly in inflation. If anything moving will be to the hawkish side via inflation.

Nothing new in play TA wise either with all cards on the table already (bar unscheduled risk flows) with Feb calendar pretty much cleared (just a marginal US GDP left among the majors).

For the actual flows (if any) will take @primejarvis and @Earleone for today's reference in the thread:

@primejarvis

Direct -> 1.056x -> 1.047x

@Earleone (merging in one as its 'useless' no pun intended to have 2 in the same area)

Direct -> 1.061x -> TP1 1.049 -> TP2 1.039X [please fill TP1, TP2 etc so we can track]

and anybody else who want to jump and call the other side?

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,837
  • Feb 22, 2017 10:02am Feb 22, 2017 10:02am
Quoting sisse
For the actual flows (if any) will take @primejarvis and @Earleone for today's reference in the thread: @primejarvis Direct -> 1.056x -> 1.047x @Earleone (merging in one as its 'useless' no pun intended to have 2 in the same area) Direct -> If 1.061x -> [please fill TP1, TP2 etc so we can track] and anybody else who want to jump and call the other...
Yes, I know they are to close to each other. It is if I am lucky and get a Spike ( not expected today ) . If slow movement after big spike i will fill both postions at the 1.0628 level if time to change orders manually.

TP1 1.049X
TP2 1.039X
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #147,838
  • Feb 22, 2017 10:08am Feb 22, 2017 10:08am
Yes direct ... if breached the .057x will move the s/l above .068x ... A close below .048x is in my book ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #147,839
  • Feb 22, 2017 10:12am Feb 22, 2017 10:12am
My view: a zigzag 1.054 1.045 1.066 1.078 and up to 1.10
  • #147,840
  • Feb 22, 2017 10:19am Feb 22, 2017 10:19am
LMT Sell 1.058x STP 1.063x TP1 1.041x TP2 1.033x
and
LMT Stop Sell 1.048x STP 1.053x TP1 1.041x TP2 1.033x
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