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EUR/GBP - What a great pair to trade!

  • #3,501
  • Feb 15, 2017 12:59pm Feb 15, 2017 12:59pm
It is much too early now with a few days left before a confirmation but I'll be monitoring for a buy opportunity.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP H4.jpg Size: 328 KB
  • #3,502
  • Feb 16, 2017 3:37am Feb 16, 2017 3:37am
Quoting TGS
It is much too early now with a few days left before a confirmation but I'll be monitoring for a buy opportunity. {image}
Is there any reason for your analysis, or are you waiting for the H4 trend line to break?
Gone to a better place
  • #3,503
  • Feb 16, 2017 8:33am Feb 16, 2017 8:33am
Quoting smikester
Is there any reason for your analysis, or are you waiting for the H4 trend line to break?
The trend line break is the first of two confirmations. The second confirmation in the screenshot is later when price moves further up and all of this is to increase the likelihood of price actually reaching the target.
  • #3,504
  • Feb 16, 2017 8:53am Feb 16, 2017 8:53am
Quoting smikester
Is there any reason for your analysis, or are you waiting for the H4 trend line to break?
This post shows why the trend line break is the first confirmation because in this NZDJPY post, the trend line didn't break and price moved further up which actually was my second confirmation to buy towards the dashed line area target.

This is a EURGBP thread but I'll post that NZDJPY chart here since it's about this example.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDJPY H1.jpg Size: 298 KB
  • #3,505
  • Feb 16, 2017 10:00am Feb 16, 2017 10:00am
Quoting TGS
{quote} This post shows why the trend line break is the first confirmation because in this NZDJPY post, the trend line didn't break and price moved further up which actually was my second confirmation to buy towards the dashed line area target. This is a EURGBP thread but I'll post that NZDJPY chart here since it's about this example. {image}
Thanks for the explanation. For me, a bullish candle for this week and a close above that trend line, would see me seeking long trades.
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  • #3,506
  • Feb 17, 2017 12:16am Feb 17, 2017 12:16am
50 fib looks like a sell zone to me aEG retests an important zone after daily/weekly TL breaks
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBPDaily.png Size: 22 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBPWeekly.png Size: 22 KB
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #3,507
  • Feb 17, 2017 3:26am Feb 17, 2017 3:26am
Quoting TGS
{quote} The trend line break is the first of two confirmations. The second confirmation in the screenshot is later when price moves further up and all of this is to increase the likelihood of price actually reaching the target.

They're playing at the trend line:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBPH1.png Size: 34 KB
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  • #3,508
  • Feb 17, 2017 8:15am Feb 17, 2017 8:15am
Quoting smikester
They're playing at the trend line: {image}
That EURGBP H4 structure didn't hold up and is no longer valid. This is why the break of trend line is only the first of two confirmations. I'll be waiting to enter into W4 on H1 before looking at this pair for a buy.
  • #3,509
  • Feb 17, 2017 1:54pm Feb 17, 2017 1:54pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
50 fib looks like a sell zone to me aEG retests an important zone after daily/weekly TL breaks {image} {image}
rejection warning on the daily
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBPDaily.png Size: 22 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBPWeekly.png Size: 22 KB
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #3,510
  • Feb 20, 2017 6:01pm Feb 20, 2017 6:01pm
more down?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBPH4.png Size: 29 KB
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #3,511
  • Feb 21, 2017 5:52am Feb 21, 2017 5:52am
I got this in my playbook.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 29 KB


Now if we were to zoom out....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot5.png Size: 33 KB


H/S within a H/S.
I don't know if this idea is feasible with impending brexit crystallization however this chart is screaming at me everyday.......

Any advice?
The only true wisdom is in knowing you know nothing.
  • #3,512
  • Feb 22, 2017 11:52am Feb 22, 2017 11:52am
Quoting aarontan
I got this in my playbook. {image} Now if we were to zoom out.... {image} H/S within a H/S. I don't know if this idea is feasible with impending brexit crystallization however this chart is screaming at me everyday....... Any advice?
Yes, I think you are right. Both those lines could play out. I'm already short, very low risk, low margin and underwater. There are lots of confusing fundamentals and the title of this thread is currently wrong. I'm concentrating on other pairs, but if I see those lines broken and retested, and one is right now - if the price action looks right I'll add to the shorts I have.
Gone to a better place
  • #3,513
  • Feb 28, 2017 5:55am Feb 28, 2017 5:55am
Shorts closed. This is traditionally an area of ranging (see 2013). Strong support found at .8400 and .8500 found buyers specifically and to the pip last night or 22:00 UK time if you like.

.8530 is traditionally a strong level and we are currently challenging this:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp170228h4.JPG Size: 134 KB
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  • #3,514
  • Mar 2, 2017 12:57am Mar 2, 2017 12:57am
If break and close above 0.8575, would be a good bullish run, and look up to 0.8630, the 50% Fibonacci resistance.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,515
  • Mar 3, 2017 4:52am Mar 3, 2017 4:52am
I was well positioned for this move but did not expect it to be so strong. We have broken through two important weekly levels (see chart above). Next level .8640. They may be retested but I'll only add to my longs here and there's nothing much in the way of resistance until .8700 - .8800.
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  • #3,516
  • Mar 5, 2017 11:33am Mar 5, 2017 11:33am
What are people's opinions on where it's heading next? I my self believe it's going to come down due to the uncertainty surrounding the EUR
  • #3,517
  • Mar 6, 2017 11:04am Mar 6, 2017 11:04am
Quoting IvanAntipov
What are people's opinions on where it's heading next? I my self believe it's going to come down due to the uncertainty surrounding the EUR
Well, you have my view above. I'm currently long this pair until at least .9000 but I am tending to be a long term trader. You may have noticed it is trading above the 20 ma on every time frame. Some trend.

This is an American website and any "uncertainty" regarding the Euro tends to be from an American point of view. I don't underestimate the power of the EU (over 500 million people) or the determination to succeed. Just my opinion.
Gone to a better place
  • #3,518
  • Mar 6, 2017 11:29am Mar 6, 2017 11:29am
EUR GBP long-term. Ok. It's Daily H&S. We will hit 8700-8710 and reverse hard and when this clears the neckline you better watch out.

I don't track fundies, but EU pretty much already a failed state. GU Political and Brexit uncertainty priced in 90% now and EU political uncertainty still lying ahead of us, so pretty damn sure that EG ain't going nowhere fast.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 40 KB
  • #3,519
  • Mar 6, 2017 11:50am Mar 6, 2017 11:50am
Quoting asgcorp
EUR GBP long-term. Ok. It's Daily H&S. We will hit 8700-8710 and reverse hard and when this clears the neckline you better watch out. I don't track fundies, but EU pretty much already a failed state. GU Political and Brexit uncertainty priced in 90% now and EU political uncertainty still lying ahead of us, so pretty damn sure that EG ain't going nowhere fast. {image}
I totally agree with you. There is far too much uncertainty in the EU and there will be an almighty pull back. The GBP is suffering due to Brexit but UK is a very stable country and could regain it's strength far quicker than most other currencies.
  • #3,520
  • Mar 6, 2017 12:02pm Mar 6, 2017 12:02pm
Quoting IvanAntipov
{quote} I totally agree with you. There is far too much uncertainty in the EU and there will be an almighty pull back. The GBP is suffering due to Brexit but UK is a very stable country and could regain it's strength far quicker than most other currencies.
GBP USD is technically oversold. Literally every dog shorted GBP USD. When you got such extreme sentiment the time is ripe for a huuuge short squeeze.
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