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The Really Useless Thread

  • #147,781
  • Feb 17, 2017 6:01am Feb 17, 2017 6:01am
Quoting Pharm0r
We trade the expectations {image}
Nice to have you back! You got to work on that profile pic though. Maybe nows the time to dig up that Duval Street one you mentioned!
  • #147,782
  • Feb 17, 2017 6:06am Feb 17, 2017 6:06am
Quoting Pharm0r
We trade the expectations {image}
and welcome back!
  • #147,783
  • Feb 17, 2017 6:52am Feb 17, 2017 6:52am
For those who are long since todays London, watch out 0636 its most likely naked.
  • #147,784
  • Feb 17, 2017 6:53am Feb 17, 2017 6:53am
hm, today may be an important close. here are my maps updated. Im trading only ST (as indicated on map), had my MT too but irrationally chicked out few weeks ago

ST: pretty self-explanatory. It should work our on short term via FED hikes, good macro numbers and Trump giving hand with his policies as all discussed here.

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MT: also all cleat, very noisy via political risk-off but it still has limited time to make it before revaluating mid and long term maps.
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  • #147,785
  • Feb 17, 2017 6:57am Feb 17, 2017 6:57am
I will know I've tamed my demons when my entries graduate out of the mediocre section of Chester's maps.
  • #147,786
  • Feb 17, 2017 7:00am Feb 17, 2017 7:00am
Quoting goosebone
I will know I've tamed my demons when my entries graduate out of the mediocre section of Chester's maps.
haha, dont worry, mine are on the edge of expensive and mediocre. Ive taken the second price action signal as sisse pointed out later in one of those itinerations.
  • #147,787
  • Feb 17, 2017 7:11am Feb 17, 2017 7:11am
Welcome back Pharm0r ... Good to see you ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #147,788
  • Feb 17, 2017 8:03am Feb 17, 2017 8:03am
Quoting janpec1000
For those who are long since todays London, watch out 0636 its most likely naked.
And 0636 is goners, now watch for possible squeeze, dollar side (just micro but worth for those looking for longs for macros).
  • #147,789
  • Feb 17, 2017 8:51am Feb 17, 2017 8:51am
Europe going home in a uneventful day across the the board. On the FX board Euro back to 1.061x with no surprises whatsoever. US in a long weekend so day and week look set to close early today.

sisse


Quoting sisse
IN @goosebone -> Short 1.068x -> STP 1.078x -> TP1 1.058x -> TP2 1.048x -> TP3 1.028x| max r:r 1:4 @SorinAQ hidden @IMARICH1 in short @clayjay in short -> Short 1.068x -> STP 1.088x -> TP1 1.058x -> TP2 1.048x | max r:r 1:1 @hoom in long @Karpa in long -> Long...
On the iteration from a quick update. Two gone all the rest still in play

IN


@hoom, @Karpa in long

-> Long 1.068x -> STP 1.0630x [check]-> TP1 1.078x -> TP2 1.088x | max r:r 1:4


sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,790
  • Feb 17, 2017 9:44am Feb 17, 2017 9:44am
Thanks
  • #147,791
  • Feb 17, 2017 10:31am Feb 17, 2017 10:31am
Have a great weekend guys ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #147,792
  • Feb 17, 2017 12:27pm Feb 17, 2017 12:27pm
Pharm0r's back? That's great! How has it been going?
  • #147,793
  • Edited 4:27pm Feb 17, 2017 12:31pm | Edited 4:27pm
Add Texas cattle ranchers to the Iowa corn farmers in that link I put up yesterday. When/if NAFTA goes, there will be winners and losers. Just like when it was implemented. TPP had the same potentials for some. Maybe makes it harder to watch when the ones who get hurt the most by a change voted for it.
Plenty examples of that across the pond as well of course. Politics is funny business indeed.

"Yes, as through this world I've wandered
I've seen lots of funny men;
Some will rob you with a six-gun,
And some with a fountain pen."
Woody Guthrie-1958

Good weekend everybody.
  • #147,794
  • Feb 17, 2017 2:32pm Feb 17, 2017 2:32pm
US Equities with a insane bullish close completing the extension reference in play without even blinking. Sadly I run out of positions for the last 2 days rally. A textbook of a manic gasp leg in ATH.

Tracking like a hawk 2347.xx for the M close as only level in play for the rest of the Quarter as the current leg will also define if we get the high of year as early as the end of Q1.

...and we rolled W again neutral on the Euro ....1.061x surprise surprise???? this time I don't think so for most. Well done @goosebone two thumbs up. I got the feeling you are getting the point on how to start 'filtering' the forest for the trees....

Quoting goosebone
Still in favor of a 610 week close EU. ....
Dollar, Gold and Yen look ready for a 'flush'. Euro still chopping around and getting hit positively and negatively from many fronts but in the last few days for the first time in years the positive factors are gaining momentum.

If it wasn't for EU elections and the nationalist, populist BS, the end of the downtrend will be around the corner (as soon as FED next hike os fully digested) but for now we keep a very fragile status quo with same levels, same trades, same all.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,795
  • Feb 17, 2017 5:11pm Feb 17, 2017 5:11pm
Hello goosebone, janpec,

Looking at today's yen move, i was also curious about the risk flows between usd and yen. The fact that usdjpy and gold were also down makes jpy the ultimate haven nowadays?
I was looking at usdjpy as a midterm play for dollar rate hikes, as the crosses will be boosted by trump fiscal news too.


Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Yeh good point but why not going then in crosses instead? If you are unsure of competing demand on risk flows from dollar and jpy you are going in in the most competitive pair UJ (+ +). GJ or CJ could offer cleaner flows from JPY as long as you have decent map for main currency on those pairs. Thats why i preffer to play crosses in such cases if all is lining up well becouse they outperform more often than not.
  • #147,796
  • Feb 18, 2017 2:51am Feb 18, 2017 2:51am
Quoting Jansen
Hello goosebone, janpec, Looking at today's yen move, i was also curious about the risk flows between usd and yen. The fact that usdjpy and gold were also down makes jpy the ultimate haven nowadays? I was looking at usdjpy as a midterm play for dollar rate hikes, as the crosses will be boosted by trump fiscal news too. {quote}
Yeh aparently trump is/has strike some deals with Japan which has some hidden strenght for JPY. For rate play i dont think UJ is too good play, if easing from BOJ Is in play sure then go ahead but otherwise especially in risk environment you might be getting muted reaction if playing from UJ, better going in pair that has mild bear counter currency like EUR or a zombie currency as it was called on this thread like CHF.
Gold wasnt down really, 1243.7 had a aim which it given and the selloff was just a part of probable retrace. We had nice squeeze from 1226 upward run 150 pips aligned with bit of risk play so in general i dont think there was anything to put gold aside in this play from JPY.
Looks like BOJ hit the wall on purchases and since last 2 years JPYs arent as fun play as they used to be....
  • #147,797
  • Edited 6:48am Feb 18, 2017 5:02am | Edited 6:48am
Quoting Jansen
Hello goosebone, janpec, Looking at today's yen move, i was also curious about the risk flows between usd and yen. The fact that usdjpy and gold were also down makes jpy the ultimate haven nowadays? I was looking at usdjpy as a midterm play for dollar rate hikes, as the crosses will be boosted by trump fiscal news too. {quote}
Since I'm learning about all this I don't want to pretend I'm qualified to answer your question so I'm glad janpec picked it up. Not sure if this is useful but I'll put it here just in case. You've been at this longer than me surely so might be kindergarten for you. No offense if so:
". As a very broad general cheatsheet:

-> Soft risk -> Gold
-> Medium risk -> Gold -> Yen/(CHF less now that is a quasi fix CB rate) -> Dollar ->
-> High risk -> Dollar -> Treasuries (German Bonds)
-> Extreme panic -> Treasuries as ultimate haven.

sisse"

Cheatsheet posted (and reposted) by sisse regarding risk in general.

Looking at equities, Bund yields, bonds, gold. It appears I was getting ahead of things talking about risk off. There may be plenty signs of that to come but we aren't facing it quite yet anyway. Would love to hear from anyone on that of course. Perhaps I'm blind to it because im looking for a burning bush instead of a gradual shift.

On that note: read an article regarding the threshold in US10year yields beyond which it's correlation with equities switches from positive to negative. In other words where the sell off in bonds is steep enough to be perceived as a risk off event and cause a correlated selloff in the stock market. Apparently that threshold pre-gfc was known to be somewhere around 5% rate in the 10yT, but after the crisis it moved lower to around 3%. This was evidenced more recently than the gfc by the taper tantrum. Granted other factors besides the 10 year yield are at play to say the least, and correlation is not causation. But with that in mind, and 10 year rates waffling around 2.4/5 at the moment, and FFR hikes on the horizon, who knows, might not take much to knock this pig off the fence. Not predicting some impending doom, but not buying ath's either. Chart below.

A great conversation between sisse, Pharmor, Fool, Fisher755, Fadhl, CommercialB and others around the subject of bonds and risk is here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...69#post9255469

And a few highlights of sisse's comments generously compiled by Fisher here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...08#post9256308
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  • #147,798
  • Feb 18, 2017 6:41am Feb 18, 2017 6:41am
Thanks janpec, i'll wait and see next week's movement for more before thinking of positioning again

Thanks goosebone, more to read this weekend ^^
I have been doing this for 9+ years, but only moved up to daily and above for the last year, so all the macro , correlation, strongest/weakest pair stuff are still coming together, so yeah, really appreciate your reply and links on backposts
  • #147,799
  • Edited 8:10am Feb 18, 2017 7:59am | Edited 8:10am
Border tax opposition is building in Congress. Both sides are positioning for a fight. Without it the tax cut promises made by the white house are unaffordable without fat deficit spending. That's a hard sell even without the debt limit in the spotlight soon. End of the month Trump should be addressing Congress on all that. If the recent rally in us equities is resting largely on tax cut expectations the debate surrounding the border tax should get dicey in markets.
  • #147,800
  • Feb 18, 2017 8:13am Feb 18, 2017 8:13am
Quoting goosebone
Border tax opposition is building in Congress. Both sides are positioning for a fight. Without it the tax cut promises made by the white house are unaffordable without fat deficit spending. That's a hard sell even without the debt limit in the spotlight soon. End of the month Trump should be addressing Congress on all that. If the recent rally in us equities is resting on large tax cut expectations the debate surrounding the border tax should get dicey in markets.
After getting so much of data from UK, US all only on fiscal policy it's really getting too much complicated to funnel every tweet ...
Trying to go with the major flow nothing else than that ... If starts funneling every tweet we are definitely going to get lost in the translation
Re-Incarnated
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