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  • #100,741
  • Edited Feb 16, 2017 2:08am Feb 15, 2017 11:16pm | Edited Feb 16, 2017 2:08am
Quoting damo
A pick of the AUD futures contract. As you can see the volume is NOT dropping off.....yet {image}
meaningless volume.Feed is just retail and we know retail does not move price.
You can have no volume and price drop 100 pips because institutional traders banks,hedge funds etc can move price and you are not in that grid.
regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #100,742
  • Edited Feb 16, 2017 10:22am Feb 15, 2017 11:23pm | Edited Feb 16, 2017 10:22am
  •  damo
  • | Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Chart Pattern & Trend Trader | 217 Posts
Quoting Davit
{quote} meaningless volume.Feed is just retail and we know retail does not move price. You can have no volume and price drop 100 pips because institutional traders banks,hedge funds etc can move price and you are not in the grid. regards
Yes I know that. Read my other posts!! It was posted more as a reference as someone had already commented that the volume was decreasing, where as the futures contract shows the opposite. Besides, if you use Fx volume, it is relevant only to that particular broker.

And yes, I to have also seen price grind upwards and downwards on low volume, blowing everyone's stops while the supposed "secret" indicator (Volume) is telling us that the opposite should happen. Margin calls are judged only on price, so that is all I use these days.

I already pointed out why this is grinding up, it's a safe haven and this is all sentiment..... for now.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #100,743
  • Feb 16, 2017 12:47am Feb 16, 2017 12:47am
Quoting Davit
{quote} meaningless volume.Feed is just retail and we know retail does not move price. You can have no volume and price drop 100 pips because institutional traders banks,hedge funds etc can move price and you are not in the grid. regards
prove what you said....bla bla bla is not enough.
  • #100,744
  • Feb 16, 2017 1:05am Feb 16, 2017 1:05am
Quoting ruma29
{quote} prove what you said....bla bla bla is not enough.
idiotic response
do your own search not going to prove anything to a simpleton.Evidence is glaringly obvious ....
To help you watch Mark Douglas series on Trading volume 3
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...41#post9338341

Please don't come back even more moronic response.What I just shared is gold and if you are that bone stupid don't respond
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #100,745
  • Feb 16, 2017 1:13am Feb 16, 2017 1:13am
caught allot of pips from last usd figures and on reversal did really well.

Aud will have a strong sell off and profits will be taken
  • #100,746
  • Feb 16, 2017 1:51am Feb 16, 2017 1:51am
  •  damo
  • | Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Chart Pattern & Trend Trader | 217 Posts
Quoting Davit
{quote} idiotic response do your own search not going to prove anything to a simpleton.Evidence is glaringly obvious .... To help you watch Mark Douglas series on Trading volume 3 http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...41#post9338341 Please don't come back even more moronic response.What I just shared is gold and if you are that bone stupid don't respond
I take it that with your language and demeanor you are staying within character as previously set by your avatar ?
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #100,747
  • Feb 16, 2017 3:11am Feb 16, 2017 3:11am
Quoting Not-KPMG
{quote}   Do we know why this jump??? Why today?  Yellen....    Possible stop hunt....or news that are due in 26 hours have been leaked and they are good (employment).    Wait and see. Don't buy ofcourse. 
 
Hi 
Mystery revealed
No mystery in Aud land
So today, at the "green news" they hit the sell button.... sorry the Take profit get your stops button.
 
Oops again..... 
 
Don't argue guys.
Trade smaller frames and watch out.
Beware of robber banks (RB), bad advisors.
  • #100,748
  • Feb 16, 2017 3:43am Feb 16, 2017 3:43am
I see a big 4hr breakout candle and another retest coming ....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH4.png Size: 28 KB
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #100,749
  • Feb 16, 2017 4:14am Feb 16, 2017 4:14am
CME fed watch tool now prices in a 31% chance of a rate hike in January, up from 17% from the day before based on the 30 day federal fund futures. D
  • #100,750
  • Feb 16, 2017 7:46am Feb 16, 2017 7:46am
US Data exceeds expectations again. Duel indicators of Building permits and the Philadelphia manufacturing index smash forecasts.

This week Yellen signaled a hawkish statement on rates, on the same day inflation came in at .3% against forecast of .2%, which took annualized CPI from 2.1 to 2.3%. Moreover, data showed strong retail sales which beat forecasts. Now following the above, we now have another set of data indicating a bullish US economy. In theory, this has been a perfect week for the USD, (other than crude oil inventories). Yet even as I type, the AUD wont break back down 77 cents. Although its still early, and I wonder if the big players might start to see risks at holding the AUD at 77 cents, whilst at the same time start some profit taking.

Is the market really invested in the idea the iron ore rally is going to save the USD/AUD from interest rate parity?
  • #100,751
  • Feb 16, 2017 8:17am Feb 16, 2017 8:17am
Quoting AdamSydneyAu
Although its still early, and I wonder if the big players might start to see risks at holding the AUD at 77 cents, whilst at the same time start some profit taking. Is the market really invested in the idea the iron ore rally is going to save the USD/AUD from interest rate parity?
Risk? Yes, it is risky to hold USD or AUD. It's 2 ways street. So far AUD is ahead. The question is will USD catch up? So far, USD is underdog now to AUD. We don't know when the tide will turn. It can be 5 min from now or 1 month. So study your chart and get some hints.
  • #100,752
  • Feb 16, 2017 8:19am Feb 16, 2017 8:19am
If you fight the trend, you are against the crowd.
  • #100,753
  • Feb 16, 2017 8:28am Feb 16, 2017 8:28am
My chart tells me. If this week ends above .7650. It is still uptrend. If it ends below .7650, it's 50-50 chance.
  • #100,754
  • Feb 16, 2017 1:01pm Feb 16, 2017 1:01pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} idiotic response do your own search not going to prove anything to a simpleton.Evidence is glaringly obvious .... To help you watch Mark Douglas series on Trading volume 3 http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...41#post9338341 Please don't come back even more moronic response.What I just shared is gold and if you are that bone stupid don't respond
unskilled , immature trader could only insult...
Attached Image
  • #100,755
  • Feb 16, 2017 2:53pm Feb 16, 2017 2:53pm
Hello Guys i am Not sure about the Up move i don't think it will break all my Analysis points that 0.7550 is coming in few weeks, so i am selling AUDUSD
0.7700 and 7680
2 trades and lets see if i get my targets,
Sell 0.7700
Target 0.7630
sell 0.7685
Target : 0.7600 Final Target 0.7550

Wish me Good Luck..
  • #100,756
  • Edited 5:30pm Feb 16, 2017 5:17pm | Edited 5:30pm
Quoting frx_trader
If you fight the trend, you are against the crowd.

True. But the AUD rally has been strong, and no one wants to be the last one to the party.

Rallies need fundamentals or sentiment to support it. However on paper, US fundamentals have been vastly superior to AUD fundamentals. Sentiment is whats driving the AUD - belief a global bull market will attract investors to assets with more opportunity for growth. Also I think many are assuming the RBA is done cutting rates.

Also, did anyone see Trump's press conference today? What a moron, casually talking about blowing up a Russian submarine. So terms of holding any currency against he USD over a long time, you run the risk of Trump allowing a manageable situation to escalate to a full blown crisis.

I dont think I could ever sleep at night if I held long positions against the USD or Yen (or the Yen against the USD)

As for technical, a downward sloping wedge has formed on a 15 minute chart, and the AUD has failed to break out of the range 4 times.
  • #100,757
  • Feb 16, 2017 10:29pm Feb 16, 2017 10:29pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
I see a big 4hr breakout candle and another retest coming .... {image}
Another nice full bodied candle off the retest

The market can remain fundamentally irrational longer than we can remain solvent.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH4.png Size: 27 KB
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #100,758
  • Feb 16, 2017 11:00pm Feb 16, 2017 11:00pm
Quoting AdamSydneyAu
{quote} True. But the AUD rally has been strong, and no one wants to be the last one to the party. Rallies need fundamentals or sentiment to support it. However on paper, US fundamentals have been vastly superior to AUD fundamentals.
Ok. But how about if market players want USD to be low, before they finally buy USD. We don't know when. Just play along their game.


Sentiment is whats driving the AUD - belief a global bull market will attract investors to assets with more opportunity for growth. Also I think many are assuming the RBA is done cutting rates. Also, did anyone see Trump's press conference today? What a moron, casually talking about blowing up a Russian submarine. So terms of holding any currency against he USD over a long time, you run the risk of Trump allowing a manageable situation to escalate to a full blown crisis.

I don't think many take his seriously. Like you, you think he is a moron. He likes to tweet. Market will adjust to his style.

I dont think I could ever sleep at night if I held long positions against the USD or Yen (or the Yen against the USD) As for technical, a downward sloping wedge has formed on a 15 minute chart, and the AUD has failed to break out of the range 4 times.

Then close your trades daily. Good. You use technical analysis along with fundamental.
  • #100,759
  • Feb 17, 2017 1:06am Feb 17, 2017 1:06am
5 times now bounced of a downward sloping wedge. Without a new iron ore rally, few people will be wanting to hold the AUD at 77c as the next Fed meeting draws closer.
Attached Image
  • #100,760
  • Feb 17, 2017 3:22am Feb 17, 2017 3:22am
Still holding short from 7715.

Not a pretty picture on the weekly. Could the party be over? Iron ore, gold, silver, oil...up up up up. What happens when that ends?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: weekly.png Size: 5 KB
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
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