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AUD/USD

  • #100,721
  • Feb 15, 2017 4:01pm Feb 15, 2017 4:01pm
MFI + Volume analysis with some embellishment
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AU STORY.png Size: 72 KB
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #100,722
  • Feb 15, 2017 4:08pm Feb 15, 2017 4:08pm
I have a dedicated server and I am willing to share it with Australian traders.
24 CPUs 32GB ram. Ping time to Manhattan max 20ms average 10ms.
You can run multiple mt4 and as many EA as you like.
I can do general installation and support /security/virus protection / firewalling for entire machine and help in case you're not expert.
30 au$ per month. You can try for limited time free
This is just to share, not commercial.
  • #100,723
  • Feb 15, 2017 4:45pm Feb 15, 2017 4:45pm
Title:AUD/USD Intraday: under pressure.
Summary:Short positions below 0.7695 with targets at 0.7645 & 0.7630 in extension.
Story:Pivot: 0.7695

Our preference: short positions below 0.7695 with targets at 0.7645 & 0.7630 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 0.7695 look for further upside with 0.7715 & 0.7735 as targets.

Comment: the RSI lacks upward momentum.

Supports and resistances:
0.7735 **
0.7715 **
0.7695 ***
0.7677 Last
0.7645 **
0.7630 **
0.7615 ***

Copyright 1999 - 2017 TRADING CENTRAL
Attached Image
  • #100,724
  • Feb 15, 2017 4:55pm Feb 15, 2017 4:55pm
Quoting frx_trader
I think Aussie has different policy from the other countries. Aussie will defend their currency. Instead of lowering interest or race to the bottom. It will raise interest to defend it to protect investments. After all, Aussie doesn't compete with the west in exporting. Moreover, the price of commodity is determine bu world market. Trump may not agree.
Australia competes with developing countries in resource exports, we need a low currency for our miners to be profitable.


Quoting desphilboy
I have a dedicated server and I am willing to share it with Australian traders. 24 CPUs 32GB ram. Ping time to Manhattan max 20ms average 10ms. You can run multiple mt4 and as many EA as you like. I can do general installation and support /security/virus protection / firewalling for entire machine and help in case you're not expert. 30 au$ per month. You can try for limited time free This is just to share, not commercial.
What's the benefit of this?
  • #100,725
  • Feb 15, 2017 5:40pm Feb 15, 2017 5:40pm
I still cant believe the AUD has shrugged off Yellen hawkish statement, and US CPI beating expectations taking annual CPI from 2.1% to 2.3%.

I get the feeling the coming AUS unemployment data needs good result to justify this price above 77c. Because a poor result, in conjunction with the fact Australia is still battling low inflation, will suck the life out of the narrative the RBA wont cut rates again.
  • #100,726
  • Feb 15, 2017 5:43pm Feb 15, 2017 5:43pm
Aus employment data in just under an hour.

If data better than expected:
- price will be pushing into resistance seen on weekly chart from Aug to Nov 2016 highs.
- daily range will be tested (already at 83 in my time zone and quick glance at daily chart suggests only 12 Jan (164 pips) and 2nd Feb (135 pips) are much bigger than current.

If data poor:
Should see a long overdue correction.
(Worth noting the last 3 years the Feb data release (Jan figures) has been worse than forecast.)

Expo33 rightly pointed out above that volume on today's rise has been weak so I'm hoping data is poor and we see some correction.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #100,727
  • Feb 15, 2017 6:09pm Feb 15, 2017 6:09pm
Quoting Starcraftmaz
{quote} What's the benefit of this?
First of all it depends on how you trade and whether you have experience with VPS/EAs or not.
If you are already using Virtual Private Servers, you know that all VPS providers put limitation on your cpu usage and you can consume less than 1 CPU average, so if you run a cpu consuming EA or if you have multiple accounts then you will be kicked off. also your execution is delayful in most cases.
this is not the case with a dedicated server if you have enough cpu power and ram.

if you mean what is use of VPS in general, or you are not running any EA's I recommend you to read this:
https://github.com/desphilboy/Desphilboy-trading-system
( which is how I use it) or do a general search on google about it.
  • #100,728
  • Feb 15, 2017 6:16pm Feb 15, 2017 6:16pm
Quoting AdamSydneyAu
I still cant believe the AUD has shrugged off Yellen hawkish statement, and US CPI beating expectations taking annual CPI from 2.1% to 2.3%. I get the feeling the coming AUS unemployment data needs good result to justify this price above 77c. Because a poor result, in conjunction with the fact Australia is still battling low inflation, will suck the life out of the narrative the RBA wont cut rates again.
Look at the last few employment releases the data has been all over the place. ABS has been dropping the ball. Participation rates at all time low is hiding the true figures.

Wouldn't be surprised to see:
+19k jobs, unemployment rate goes up to to 5.9%

The market has no idea what this means. Currency does whatever it wants.

You need to remember underlying this is the governments message "jobs and growth" so anyway they can manipulate these figures to be positive they will. Hence the ABS bad releases.
  • #100,729
  • Feb 15, 2017 6:32pm Feb 15, 2017 6:32pm
Marginally beats expectations, but given January is a seasonal month for hiring, its not enough jobs volume to really justify a surge.
  • #100,730
  • Feb 15, 2017 6:39pm Feb 15, 2017 6:39pm
Quoting AdamSydneyAu
Marginally beats expectations, but given January is a seasonal month for hiring, its not enough jobs volume to really justify a surge.
Agree.

In addition, still a lot of part time employment with participation rate still at an all time low
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #100,731
  • Feb 15, 2017 6:47pm Feb 15, 2017 6:47pm
This result wont not stop the RBA from slashing rates.

The correction is coming soon.
  • #100,732
  • Feb 15, 2017 6:50pm Feb 15, 2017 6:50pm
huge fall in Full Time Employment Change -44.8K
  • #100,733
  • Feb 15, 2017 6:53pm Feb 15, 2017 6:53pm
AUD beginning to slide.

Although I hope I havent spoken to soon.
  • #100,734
  • Feb 15, 2017 7:08pm Feb 15, 2017 7:08pm
Quoting AdamSydneyAu
AUD beginning to slide. Although I hope I havent spoken to soon.
Might have to wait till European or New York sessions...
Enter Signature
  • #100,735
  • Feb 15, 2017 8:17pm Feb 15, 2017 8:17pm
Quoting SkyrEk
{quote} Going according to my forecast. Cheers! Have a great weekend all! {image}
Since my post #100,629...

All is well. Not bothered about employment data or Yellen, just stayed very focus on my chart and it will reward me accordingly.

Shall wait for London/ Europe opening to see if prices will head towards .7750. Otherwise, i will just close out all my open positions and enjoy my weekends earlier.

Cheers!
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  • #100,736
  • Feb 15, 2017 9:23pm Feb 15, 2017 9:23pm
Quoting Starcraftmaz
{quote} Australia competes with developing countries in resource exports, we need a low currency for our miners to be profitable.
Miners? There is strong demand for AU below .75. But, once it is below .75, people may unload AUD. Then RBA has to raise rate to defend it.

See the effect of low AUD is undesirable. That is rate hike. So, RBA wants to be safe for AUD above .75.

well, just an opinion. I see that RBA intervened when AU touch .76
  • #100,737
  • Feb 15, 2017 9:38pm Feb 15, 2017 9:38pm
Quoting Starcraftmaz
{quote} Australia competes with developing countries in resource exports, we need a low currency for our miners to be profitable.
There is no competition. The rates of developing countries are way above RBA. And they are trying hard to stay away from strong USD.
  • #100,738
  • Feb 15, 2017 10:34pm Feb 15, 2017 10:34pm
on lower time frame, it just broken though the resistance zone @ 0.77. but on weekly chart, there is the big resisitance @0.7750. it is key zone betweent 0.77 and 0.7750.
Attached Image
A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #100,739
  • Feb 15, 2017 10:47pm Feb 15, 2017 10:47pm
  •  damo
  • | Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Chart Pattern & Trend Trader | 217 Posts
Quoting frx_trader
I think Aussie has different policy from the other countries. Aussie will defend their currency. Instead of lowering interest or race to the bottom. It will raise interest to defend it to protect investments. After all, Aussie doesn't compete with the west in exporting. Moreover, the price of commodity is determine bu world market. Trump may not agree.
You are so .... "on the ball"! but the average person would not believe it.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #100,740
  • Feb 15, 2017 10:59pm Feb 15, 2017 10:59pm
  •  damo
  • | Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Chart Pattern & Trend Trader | 217 Posts
A pick of the AUD futures contract. As you can see the volume is NOT dropping off.....yet
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-02-16_125659.png Size: 41 KB
Trade what you see, not what you think.
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