AUD/USD | Page 5036 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

AUD/USD

Similar Threads

EUR/GBP, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, CAD, NZD, JPY, and more... 15 replies

EUR/USD, AUD/USD, and CAD/USD ready to move up 2 replies

Anyone here trading AUD/USD or USD/AUD tonight regarding AUS Home Loan Report? 1 reply

The AUD/USD 1.00 EUR/AUD 1.60 GBP/AUD 2.00 Thread! 0 replies

AUD Trade Balance and AUD Retail sales 6 replies

Attachments: AUD/USD
Exit Attachments

AUD/USD

  • #100,701
  • Feb 14, 2017 9:44pm Feb 14, 2017 9:44pm
Quoting Starcraftmaz
Beats me, there's nothing involving AUD out (news) anytime soon, and US news tonight.
I bought at 36 yo at 7670...dont know what it bounced back up and erased us gains but it has happened 
  • #100,702
  • Feb 14, 2017 9:51pm Feb 14, 2017 9:51pm
Attached Image

Title:AUD/USD Intraday: continuation of the rebound.
Summary:Long positions above 0.7645 with targets at 0.7680 & 0.7700 in extension.
Story:Pivot: 0.7645

Our preference: long positions above 0.7645 with targets at 0.7680 & 0.7700 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 0.7645 look for further downside with 0.7630 & 0.7615 as targets.

Comment: the RSI calls for a new upleg.

Supports and resistances:
0.7715 **
0.7700 **
0.7680 ***
0.7669 Last
0.7645 ***
0.7630 **
0.7615 **

Copyright 1999 - 2017 TRADING CENTRAL
  • #100,703
  • Feb 14, 2017 10:35pm Feb 14, 2017 10:35pm
I get the feeling we might test 76 again before it decides to bust another move north
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH4.png Size: 25 KB
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #100,704
  • Feb 14, 2017 10:46pm Feb 14, 2017 10:46pm
Today is Wednesday. Time is running out on AU. If it doesn't break .77 this week. We can see .75 next week.
Attached Image
  • #100,705
  • Feb 14, 2017 11:14pm Feb 14, 2017 11:14pm
Quoting frx_trader
There is no sign it will break .76. Why should it go down? I think it's carry trade. Other currencies fluctuates wildly. But AU is steady. That's what investors need.
Quoting frx_trader
Today is Wednesday. Time is running out on AU. If it doesn't break .77 this week. We can see .75 next week. {image}
Quite a contrast in points of view, only 3 days apart. Would love you to be right on the 75 but 76 & 77 are both proving tough nuts to crack. Does at least support a bit of a break out when one of those cracks.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #100,706
  • Feb 14, 2017 11:59pm Feb 14, 2017 11:59pm
Quoting frx_trader
Today is Wednesday. Time is running out on AU. If it doesn't break .77 this week. We can see .75 next week. {image}
Appreciate the comment but don't what the hell that chart means!
  • #100,707
  • Feb 15, 2017 12:25am Feb 15, 2017 12:25am
Quoting Ill-b-back
79xx (green shade / 50 fib resistance) and monthly 34ema which has been directing/following traffic for at least the last 2 decades looking good for long target off the 4hr retest, before the Aussie crap hits the fan I feel. {image} {image} {image} {image}
ABCD pattern emerging to 7960ish monthly resistance area
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH4.png Size: 22 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDMonthly.png Size: 30 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDDaily1.png Size: 27 KB
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #100,708
  • Feb 15, 2017 7:55am Feb 15, 2017 7:55am
Strong retail sales and CPI out of the US. Now I am of the opinion that this must surely break the AUD's push to 77c. The march to 77c was beat down yesterday after Yellen's hawkish comment on interest rates , yet the AUD pushed back 76850 before the recent release of CPI and retail sales.

The AUD has tried and failed to break 77c 5 times in the past 20 days. Data out of the US is beating expectations, & Yellen is sounding very hawkish & the bond markets are reacting. With such a tight labour market, and core inflation now at 2.3% - Yellen now has cause to raise rates.

The price of iron ore, which can be volatile, is the only thing keeping the AUD this high. Why would anyone want go long on the AUD at levels near 77 cents? Long holders of the AUD are exposed to the volatility of iron ore, and if a pull back in iron ore occurs, those long on the AUD are going to be have their pants pulled down.
  • #100,709
  • Feb 15, 2017 9:27am Feb 15, 2017 9:27am
  •  damo
  • | Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Chart Pattern & Trend Trader | 217 Posts
Quoting AdamSydneyAu
Strong retail sales and CPI out of the US. Now I am of the opinion that this must surely break the AUD's push to 77c. The march to 77c was beat down yesterday after Yellen's hawkish comment on interest rates , yet the AUD pushed back 76850 before the recent release of CPI and retail sales. The AUD has tried and failed to break 77c 5 times in the past 20 days. Data out of the US is beating expectations, & Yellen is sounding very hawkish & the bond markets are reacting. With such a tight labour market, and core inflation now at 2.3% - Yellen now has...
You may have spoken a little too soon
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #100,710
  • Feb 15, 2017 10:30am Feb 15, 2017 10:30am
Shoot me now
Mr. K
  • #100,711
  • Feb 15, 2017 10:37am Feb 15, 2017 10:37am
Well there is the AU employment data due on Thursday, so may be a pump up now.
Enter Signature
  • #100,712
  • Feb 15, 2017 11:01am Feb 15, 2017 11:01am
Kicking myself. Rode it down. Seen it bonce so went long. Ended up closing it. And going short. And screwed myself.
Mr. K
  • #100,713
  • Feb 15, 2017 11:04am Feb 15, 2017 11:04am
  •  damo
  • | Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Chart Pattern & Trend Trader | 217 Posts
Like I said guys, when looking at the immediate short term price, price is totally governed by emotional sentiment. Today. Australia is a safehaven against uncertainty. Remember, the market hates uncertainty. The other economies such as EURO, US are better than ours, but their is so much uncertainty.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #100,714
  • Feb 15, 2017 11:18am Feb 15, 2017 11:18am
Quoting damo
Like I said guys, when looking at the immediate short term price, price is totally governed by emotional sentiment. Today. Australia is a safehaven against uncertainty. Remember, the market hates uncertainty. The other economies such as EURO, US are better than ours, but their is so much uncertainty.
new data is coming today. what do you think it will be? real data fake data? reflecting reality as per your knowledge?
  • #100,715
  • Feb 15, 2017 11:51am Feb 15, 2017 11:51am
  •  damo
  • | Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Chart Pattern & Trend Trader | 217 Posts
I think price is still going to break upwards out of the congestion zone. There is also a short term triangle forming out of the same congestion zone so the technicals support a break to the upside.

I still believe that when the big bankers have to trade or hedge (they always hedge against something that needs stability), they would rather put their money in the AUD ATM, especially with the nice interest rate. So from their perspective, if a trader has to move a mill (theoretically), they buy AUD where it is fairly safe ATM, and they can play the carry trade. This is what is pushing prices up ATM.

Give it another few weeks, we all get used to Trump, the EUR spurts some better news (giving stability and direction) then the fundamentals will play. The only thing you have to get right is the timing....... Even Mr. Ehlers is still trying to perfect that one .

I've already admitted my shortfall, I picked the bottom in late Dec, played it up and should have retired on it, timed this rally wrong and I payed dearly. I know have to admit that I stood in front of a train. I know the fundamentals for the AUD are bad, but the rest of the world does not believe it, so what I think with my local knowledge means nothing!
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #100,716
  • Feb 15, 2017 11:55am Feb 15, 2017 11:55am
  •  damo
  • | Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Chart Pattern & Trend Trader | 217 Posts
Just as I wrote this, I get ANOTHER phone call from a UK broker !! I tell him I'm not interested and am in the job market myself (yes that AUD long trade was the retirement fund). He argued with me for nearly 30 mins, he refused to believe me and claimed that "everyone in the US and UK know us Aussies in management are on 200k plus!!".

So there you go. Go figure!?!?! in the mean time I'm back on mini lots.

Oh yes, in ref to the data, it does not matter, it will cause a spike and the trend will continue, regardless.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #100,717
  • Feb 15, 2017 12:31pm Feb 15, 2017 12:31pm
I think Aussie has different policy from the other countries. Aussie will defend their currency. Instead of lowering interest or race to the bottom. It will raise interest to defend it to protect investments.

After all, Aussie doesn't compete with the west in exporting. Moreover, the price of commodity is determine bu world market.

Trump may not agree.
  • #100,718
  • Feb 15, 2017 1:35pm Feb 15, 2017 1:35pm
Lowe wont cut rates because of housing indebtedness
Its one of the highest in the world
There is a perceived correlation with iron ore as well which has been flying up.
Mixed views on employment figures later on.
On balance could be worse but too many iffs and buts.
  • #100,719
  • Feb 15, 2017 2:40pm Feb 15, 2017 2:40pm
Quoting PriceProphet
Look at this! On the weekly AUDUSD has broken the down tend line: {image} Buy 0.7600
hate to say I told you so, but AUD looks very strong after the downtrend breakout

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD BREAKOUT.png Size: 100 KB
  • #100,720
  • Feb 15, 2017 3:19pm Feb 15, 2017 3:19pm
Quoting damo
{quote} Yep.... its pure manipulation. The reserve buys it up at during the AUS/Asian session when liquidity is low, they time it whenever the slightest bit of good news is announced so you'll see a big up move. Then if AUS buys, the Brits usually buy just out of patriotism. I used to do it because I was instructed to. I love this country but the government is the most crooked you'll come across.
aud is unsustainable above 77,
the forecast for aud rate have been cut from 2 to 1 rate cut this year.



HSBC
The AUD has generally had three distinct and clear drivers:

  1. commodity prices,
  2. China
  3. and carry.

The issue now is that these three factors are not aligned. On top of this, the relationship between the AUD and its drivers has changed.

1) The AUD has failed to keep up with stronger commodity prices.
2) China's economic stability does not point us in a clear direction for the AUD, and risks of a US-China trade spat would leave the AUD exposed.
3) This leaves interest rate differentials as the dominant driver of AUD-USD.


The problem here is to get AUD-USD correct, both US rates and Australian rates must be forecast correctly. For now we think as the Fed tightens policy, Australia's carry buffer will erode putting AUD-USD under downward pressure. For this reason we expect AUD to weaken from here.

32 traders viewing now