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The Really Useless Thread

  • #147,621
  • Feb 14, 2017 7:20am Feb 14, 2017 7:20am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Not sure how imminent, i still see 650 as likely test.
i am not saying anything wrong or right but you can see i have mentioned 1.067x .... and my whole system is pointing it out .... might also not get triggered today but we are ready for a roller coaster ride ....

by the way "HAPPY VALENTINE DAY "GUYS
Re-Incarnated
  • #147,622
  • Feb 14, 2017 7:43am Feb 14, 2017 7:43am
Just a quick reminder for those newcomers in the thread ....1.061x is FA support on rate differentials. We have been here many times before and we always land here right on time for a FED or ECB announcement.

Not expecting anything from Yellen today but rather from Trump ...whatever the case NY in control with Dollar looking extremely light to flight high after the last inflation reports...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,623
  • Feb 14, 2017 9:27am Feb 14, 2017 9:27am
Quoting sisse
... Not expecting anything from Yellen today but rather from Trump ...whatever the case NY in control with Dollar looking extremely light to flight high after the last inflation reports... sisse
Overall her speech is bullish, except this sentence: "That said, the economic outlook is uncertain, and monetary policy is not on a preset course... Also, changes in fiscal policy or other economic policies could potentially affect the economic outlook."
So how market will react to it? Equities up for sure, but I doubt $UD will strengthen further.
  • #147,624
  • Feb 14, 2017 9:43am Feb 14, 2017 9:43am
Important update from the FED. RMT triggered in the US....Eyes on Euro losing the handle rather quickly.

Quoting sisse
.......quote} @goosebone we have updates on the iteration coming later sisse
A quick [check] at 1.058x to clear a rather simple flow from last week for those following the iteration (@goosebone ...what do you say now ...we'll talk later). Well done all riding the legs....


> Long 1.080x -> STP 1.070x -> TP1 1.098x -> TP2 1.108x
or
-> Short 1.078x [super checlk] -> STP 1.088x -> TP1 1.0680 [check]-> TP2 1.058x[check]

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,625
  • Feb 14, 2017 9:49am Feb 14, 2017 9:49am
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} i am not saying anything wrong or right but you can see i have mentioned 1.067x .... and my whole system is pointing it out .... might also not get triggered today but we are ready for a roller coaster ride .... by the way "HAPPY VALENTINE DAY "GUYS
Looks like not, got new LL before 650.


Quote
Closed UJ long from 112.404, leaving second one afloat, closing partially only 20% of it, 114 is now higher significant that opens extended agressive leg if we break and hold it on probability side. Tracking 114Xish closely on micros.

114 taken, didnt manage to get in on micros, 3.520 was sneaky pending missed by few pips. Nothing to see atm on macros until 115.70ish.
  • #147,626
  • Feb 14, 2017 9:56am Feb 14, 2017 9:56am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Looks like not, got new LL before 650. {quote} 114 taken, didnt manage to get in on micros, 3.520 was sneaky pending missed by few pips. Nothing to see atm on macros until 115.70ish.
Actually my whole system which i rely on was pointing a break down alert so I just shared ... 670 was my highest level for today's trading ... Anyways we got a break ... So not much to see and ride the pig ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #147,627
  • Edited 11:39am Feb 14, 2017 10:51am | Edited 11:39am
Can we consider the 1.058x level broken (or are we waiting for a D close)? I mean Sisse let us know that there's a lot of air until 1.04. Or should we keep in mind the old adage "don't be a dick for a tick" and close any open positions from higher up?

Quoting sisse
For this morning, all eyes on Euro 1.058 holding. There is very little support below until the 1.04xx handle ... sisse
  • #147,628
  • Feb 14, 2017 11:10am Feb 14, 2017 11:10am
Quoting ExForX
Can we consider the 1.058x level broken (or are we waiting for a D close)? I mean Sisse let us know that there's a lot of air until 1.04. Or should we keep in mind the old adage "don't be a dick for a tick" and close any open positions from higher up?

for one we haven't had a 4hr candle break past the level yet... and that would be considered still imminent break down...until the daily confirms it
  • #147,629
  • Feb 14, 2017 12:12pm Feb 14, 2017 12:12pm
i would now... guess an euro imminent break down alert from sisse ...hehee
  • #147,630
  • Feb 14, 2017 12:16pm Feb 14, 2017 12:16pm
Europe went home with US markets in full motion but with important updates from the FED expectations side.

Outlooks updates coming on the close...

sisse

Quoting ExForX
Can we consider the 1.058x level broken (or are we waiting for a D close)? I mean Sisse let us know that there's a lot of air until 1.04. Or should we keep in mind the old adage "don't be a dick for a tick" and close any open positions from higher up? {quote}
Whats your map saying?. I don't have anything at 1.058x. That was the final target for last week news flow play (the one we made the iteration)...

The only level in play are mid term and is only one 1.061x. Nearest next target (3er) for those on the short term swing is still far from these levels comes around the highs of the handle below....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,631
  • Feb 14, 2017 12:30pm Feb 14, 2017 12:30pm
Quoting sisse
Important update from the FED. RMT triggered in the US....Eyes on Euro losing the handle rather quickly. {quote} A quick [check] at 1.058x to clear a rather simple flow from last week for those following the iteration (@goosebone ...what do you say now ...we'll talk later). Well done all riding the legs.... > Long 1.080x -> STP 1.070x -> TP1 1.098x -> TP2 1.108x or -> Short 1.078x [super checlk] -> STP 1.088x -> TP1 1.0680 [check]-> TP2 1.058x[check] sisse
Missed the boat. Second guessed my entry last week. Hindsight says I shouldn't have. My high was 828 and I didn't like it at the time. But we discussed that in detail.
The trade I would have taken was goofy wide risk and my map was leaning towards fubar so at least I'm glad I don't own that part of it right now. But hey, even if i don't make any money I'm kicking some ass in the iterations . I'll keep trying to sync those better instincts with my live trading (and checking my inbox )
Like you said, if your outlook is sell, just sell.
  • #147,632
  • Feb 14, 2017 12:31pm Feb 14, 2017 12:31pm
Quoting sisse
Europe went home with US markets in full motion but with important updates from the FED expectations side. Outlooks updates coming on the close... sisse {quote} Whats your map saying?. I don't have anything at 1.058x. That was the final target for last week news flow play (the one we made the iteration)... The only level in play are mid term and is only one 1.061x. Nearest next target (3er) for those on the short term swing is still far from these levels comes around the highs of the handle below.... sisse
I was asking since you were hinting at the end of the mid-term leg soon.

Quote
For trading, there is a major long and mid term early signal that Euro downtrend has its days numbered.

I was trading mid-term and now I'm worried that the changes you were hinting at might mess up my map and plans. The map might be saying one thing, but if fundamentals change, any map might need to be re-evaluated.
  • #147,633
  • Feb 14, 2017 12:32pm Feb 14, 2017 12:32pm
hmmm hawkish FED, equities still up in manic moves on no regulation and tax cuts for corporations. no suprise that tarullo resigned.
  • #147,634
  • Feb 14, 2017 12:44pm Feb 14, 2017 12:44pm
Quoting chronical
{quote} > Short 1.078x [check] -> STP 1.088x -> TP1 1.0680 -> TP2 1.058x im in.. lets c how it goes Sisse's contribution here priceless.. Thanks for all these sharing...

All targets are cleared from the last 2 week's short term play..

Thanks again Sisse

for NOT giving a man a fish and you feed him for a day; BUT teaching a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime..
Wise decisions are based on lies we living..
  • #147,635
  • Feb 14, 2017 3:13pm Feb 14, 2017 3:13pm
Quoting chester123
hmmm hawkish FED, equities still up in manic moves on no regulation and tax cuts for corporations. no suprise that tarullo resigned.
To be honest, we are witnessing for the first time in history a shameful and unimaginable circus from the US in not even a month.

Things like that happens in Banana Republics but shouldn't be happening in a country like the US despite politics and political party lines.

I am starting (i am not the only one) to think that Trump wont last pass the second year as either he will get bored with politics and blow out resigning in some of his hate speeches with somebody or he may be impeached before for a major faux pas....

From afar it just ridiculously medieval was going in such a great country.

We'll see how it goes

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,636
  • Feb 14, 2017 3:54pm Feb 14, 2017 3:54pm
Quoting ExForX
{quote} I was asking since you were hinting at the end of the mid-term leg soon....
Ok a couple of things:

  1. I just posted above this:

Quoting sisse
{quote} ... all trading discussion come from the backposts from [mostly not always possible] before expectations change [the why and what will make markets change] -.....
In which of those stages do you think my comments were referring?

A. Before expectations change [the why and what would make markets change]

B. Facts chaining with expectations (when)

C. Actual trading trigger (how)

D. Its a done deal just and we are in a new outlook already?

 

  1. We have discussed manu times and I definitely now realize is one of the hardest concepts to digest for most:

Mid term: weeks to months...
Long term: months to quarters.

-> We are talking about +6 years downtrend. Think for minute all the things that need to happen first in the FA side and then in the TA side before that.....

-> What makes you think in the middle of nowhere at the dead hours of the day with no reports or news whatsoever a massive trend in one of most important market instrument across all asset classes is going to end.....

->What i mean is common sense first and put things in perspective. My comments are for highlight expectations cooking in the horizon so you can be adaptive and proactive when they stary playing instead of reactive and chasing direction .

-> The faster you understand and get good at this, the futhter you will get from the crow and the laggers in terms of analysis and better consistent results because you will be on the 'right' (the path with less resistance and risk) side of the market.

I hope it helps.

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,637
  • Feb 14, 2017 4:11pm Feb 14, 2017 4:11pm
...and we are rolling with a very bearish close in the Euro. It's crunching time for bulls as they will need to sit very tight this time. Euro losing the handle ...ufff... but as long as it holds, there is nothing to see in the Euro.

In contrast we have a very important update from the FED today and for the first time this year:

-> Changing short term outlook in US Equities from Buy to Neutral.

We are reaching the start of the end of Trump's honeymoon period in my books. We have passed the threshold of acceptable political uncertainty from the US without a further push from real economic policies announcements (expectations of fiscal and tax cuts are well digested already)

On the FA front 2 very important key points:

-> We have 1 'tweet' pending just to confirm the above mentioned expectations (if we ever get furher details this year) and,

-> 1 FED hike pending before finally closing the first stage toward the slowest normalization process we have ever witnessed.

After that the impact of RMT in Dollar will start slowly fading away while getting stronger correlation with inflation instead.

++++Bookmark Alert Recommended Below for future reference ++++

This process will unlock a whole different flows and trading environment from a monetary policy point of view that we have been trading the last 4 years ....that's for later but for those interested in what is coming next and are sharp enough to be ready is time to start preparing and digging deeper in the upcoming environments for the year. It will come without much warning for the laggers ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,638
  • Feb 14, 2017 4:52pm Feb 14, 2017 4:52pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} This ship of fools has power to cause problems on a grand scale no doubt. But that said, I have confidence in the structure of governmental checks and balances to contain their tantrums and naive blunders to a mess that c.....
We all do....for now.

It's our obligation as citizens wherever is your country to be very vigilant and vocal when things start getting out of boundaries. Passivity, covering your eyes and ignoring what is going on around in times of aggression is the mother of all major disasters in a democratic country...

Quoting goosebone
But hey, even if i don't make any money I'm kicking some ass in the iterations . I'll keep trying to sync those better instincts with my live trading (and checking my inbox ...
You are not the only one around that is doing better in the iterations than on their own.

Many voices are saying the same which make think something is missing when putting those ideas in practice without the 'training wheels' of a predefined iteration in which I am forcing you to take a side in a particular time with a fix risk:reward. ...we'll get back on this later.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,639
  • Feb 14, 2017 5:03pm Feb 14, 2017 5:03pm
Quoting sisse
++++Bookmark Alert Recommended Below for future reference ++++ This process will unlock a whole different flows and trading environment from a monetary policy point of view that we have been trading the last 4 years ....that's for later but for those interested in what is coming next and are sharp enough to be ready is time to start preparing and digging deeper in the upcoming environments for the year. It will come without much warning for the laggers .... sisse

Thanks Sisse, everyday I read your updates for knowing the direction of the wind.

Does this mean that we should start to pay attention to CPI as the main rate forecaster from now on?
  • #147,640
  • Edited 2:25am Feb 15, 2017 2:01am | Edited 2:25am
Quoting USD-Bear
UK100 short stop @ BE, free ride this time hope it holds
damn, thrown out again
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
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