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AUD/USD

  • #100,681
  • Feb 14, 2017 1:17am Feb 14, 2017 1:17am
On a 15 minute candle bar chart, its spend about 5 hours over 70% in the RSI index, ranging from when Chinese CPI was released (which marginally beat expectations), to this very moment. With Yellens speech coming, and the Iron ore rally being suspect in his ability to hold, who is bidding the AUD to these levels?

Even long term, by the end of the year, its within reason to believe AUD and USD interest rates will reach parity at 1%. There is so much risk in the AUD at this level. Namely interest rates risk, potential credit downgrade, commodity risk, the risk premium on Trump's trade & economic policies.

My only thought, is investors are speculating the RBA will alter monetary policy and wont heed another rate cut based on improving economic conditions in both Australia and China, and the RBA not wanting to fuel what many believe is a housing bubble in Sydney and Melbourne by cutting interest rates further.

Boom!! As I type, is just bounced of the high trend line of 76850 to fall through the intra day resistance level of 76745.
  • #100,682
  • Feb 14, 2017 4:10am Feb 14, 2017 4:10am
  •  damo
  • | Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Chart Pattern & Trend Trader | 217 Posts
Boom!! As I type, is just bounced of the high trend line of 76850 to fall through the intra day resistance level of 76745.[/quote]

And then without looking back it again screams north.

I don't think the RBA will slash rates again. The fact that the big banks are jacking them up while the RBA brings them down shows that their is no reason to continue with this strategy. The Aussie is riding on sentiment, a safehaven until Trump establishes himself, the Brits sort Brexit out and the Euro is problem free. Think about it, if you had a few mil of a banks money and you wanted it to be fairly safe for a few months, where would you stash it? You would probably by Aussie $$$, especially with those interest rates. Maybe by some Kiwi as well.

Just my 2 cents.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #100,683
  • Feb 14, 2017 4:50am Feb 14, 2017 4:50am
Quoting damo
Boom!! As I type, is just bounced of the high trend line of 76850 to fall through the intra day resistance level of 76745.
And then without looking back it again screams north. I don't think the RBA will slash rates again. The fact that the big banks are jacking them up while the RBA brings them down shows that their is no reason to continue with this strategy. The Aussie is riding on sentiment, a safehaven until Trump establishes himself, the Brits sort Brexit out and the Euro is problem free. Think about it, if you had a few mil of a banks money and you wanted it to be fairly safe for a few months, where would you stash it? You would probably by Aussie $$$, especially with those interest rates. Maybe by some Kiwi as well. Just my 2 cents.[/quote]

The AUD is not about where people are putting money. The rba will put the rates down at least once... look at retail figures, umemployment and when the AUD is up... exports get expensive and guess what demand for materials decline.

EUR is a mess.. USA is in a ok sisutation.
  • #100,684
  • Feb 14, 2017 4:52am Feb 14, 2017 4:52am
Quoting AdamSydneyAu
On a 15 minute candle bar chart, its spend about 5 hours over 70% in the RSI index, ranging from when Chinese CPI was released (which marginally beat expectations), to this very moment. With Yellens speech coming, and the Iron ore rally being suspect in his ability to hold, who is bidding the AUD to these levels? Even long term, by the end of the year, its within reason to believe AUD and USD interest rates will reach parity at 1%. There is so much risk in the AUD at this level. Namely interest rates risk, potential credit downgrade, commodity risk,...
High Five for you... this is a trader... looking at all the aspects.. CNY just realesed negative figures at 9:00... Lending is way down only 60 billion less.
  • #100,685
  • Feb 14, 2017 5:09am Feb 14, 2017 5:09am
  •  damo
  • | Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Chart Pattern & Trend Trader | 217 Posts
Quoting jpcashflow
{quote} And then without looking back it again screams north. I don't think the RBA will slash rates again. The fact that the big banks are jacking them up while the RBA brings them down shows that their is no reason to continue with this strategy. The Aussie is riding on sentiment, a safehaven until Trump establishes himself, the Brits sort Brexit out and the Euro is problem free. Think about it, if you had a few mil of a banks money and you wanted it to be fairly safe for a few months, where would you stash it? You would probably by Aussie $$$,...
I totally agree with you. I am just amazed at how strong this currency is and even tired of myself for bagging it out. Every time it pulls back, it seems to go forward with an even higher velocity.

Many of my previous posts have been making those unaware of how bad the fundamentals are. I am in the west and never seen unemployment this high. There are so many problems here it will take another decade to clean it up and neither premiers at this election are capable at it.

But... most of trading resides on sentiment. The AUD is seen ATM as a safe haven. I get so many calls from UK and US brokers asking for cash for new accounts telling me how much they know its booming over my way. So, in reality the fundamentals only play in the big picture, not whats happening now. Its all sentiment. This is all one of those circumstances where the AUD is not so strong, but it is the others that are very weak (US is just uncertain with the new P).

Also, most trading is done by the banks, they move the money around, not traders. They can afford to dump or buy several mill per day, unlike anyone on this forum. When they put money somewhere, they always go where interest rates are big and then try and play the carry.

Also, for the record, I am also short the AUD. I did pick the bottom in the new year, got out to early and lost it all picking the top.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #100,686
  • Feb 14, 2017 6:10am Feb 14, 2017 6:10am
at the same time as sentiment;
there is also the fact the Aussie is a commodity currency.
From top of my head:
iron ore is trending toward $100,
gold is trending towards $1300,
coal probably is heading up too.
ps short but waiting on it
I will get my head around this, but always can be wrong
  • #100,687
  • Feb 14, 2017 7:06am Feb 14, 2017 7:06am
  •  damo
  • | Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Chart Pattern & Trend Trader | 217 Posts
Quoting nimtrader
at the same time as sentiment; there is also the fact the Aussie is a commodity currency. From top of my head: iron ore is trending toward $100, gold is trending towards $1300, coal probably is heading up too. ps short but waiting on it
Yes, i'll pay all of that, but they are long time fundamentals. For those in other countries who may be interested:

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/au...035132180.html

When its in the news its usually a time to run... the secrets out. At least for the short term.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #100,688
  • Feb 14, 2017 7:15am Feb 14, 2017 7:15am
picked up some shorts on AU

SL just above the high of the day... TP: let it run
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  • #100,689
  • Feb 14, 2017 8:01am Feb 14, 2017 8:01am
Falling shy of 77 cents. The strong US PPI result has blunted the AUD surge, for now. Guess everyone is sitting tight for Yellen.

Central bankers should always be kind to the holders of treasuries or bonds. If she is thinking of a rate hike in March, she will signal it.
  • #100,690
  • Feb 14, 2017 9:25am Feb 14, 2017 9:25am
Finaly!
Bat gone wrong, but after 12 hours of pain, it finaly dropped and took profit
(my short was at 0.76832)
you are not expected to understand this
  • #100,691
  • Feb 14, 2017 10:06am Feb 14, 2017 10:06am
Quoting Don96
picked up some shorts on AU SL just above the high of the day... TP: let it run {image}
oops
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  • #100,692
  • Feb 14, 2017 10:25am Feb 14, 2017 10:25am
Closed my short for about 60p))

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  • #100,693
  • Feb 14, 2017 1:09pm Feb 14, 2017 1:09pm
Quoting Starcraftmaz
Went short at 0.76836, seems like a decent setup is forming, lots of supply overhead. I think this current movement is just a reflection of the iron ore price, and it doesn't have much behind it.
Closed at 0.762, 0.764. All happened while i was sleeping, what a nice surprise!
  • #100,694
  • Feb 14, 2017 3:48pm Feb 14, 2017 3:48pm
Quoting Starcraftmaz
{quote} Closed at 0.762, 0.764. All happened while i was sleeping, what a nice surprise!

Always great feeling when when you wake up to profits. 🤣
Mr. K
  • #100,695
  • Feb 14, 2017 3:53pm Feb 14, 2017 3:53pm
My trade setup. Going long. Bounce off the 61.8 fib line. And trend line. On 4 hour chart. These are the trades I make. And been making. Unless I get greedy and screw myself. Which I did the other day.

take profit is the top. .7695. Stop loss is 5 points under the 61.8 fib line. Or .7635
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Mr. K
  • #100,696
  • Feb 14, 2017 4:35pm Feb 14, 2017 4:35pm
There has been very strong buying of AUDUSD in this dip. Seems like long may be a good idea, I'm just a bit worried it has gotten ahead of itself. Will wait for Tokyo.
  • #100,697
  • Feb 14, 2017 4:47pm Feb 14, 2017 4:47pm
Quoting Starcraftmaz
There has been very strong buying of AUDUSD in this dip. Seems like long may be a good idea, I'm just a bit worried it has gotten ahead of itself. Will wait for Tokyo.
 
Do we know why this jump???
Why today?  Yellen.... 
 
Possible stop hunt....or news that are due in 26 hours have been leaked and they are good (employment). 
 
Wait and see. Don't buy ofcourse. 
Beware of robber banks (RB), bad advisors.
  • #100,698
  • Feb 14, 2017 4:56pm Feb 14, 2017 4:56pm
Quoting Vorex
{quote} Price moves from left to right, eventually it will break it no matter what, not because it's a bullish signal but it's because of the fact that bars are created from left to right. If they moved from right to left, the same thing applies eventually it will break the trendline. on the 23rd of Dec 2016 price reached .715x, if price continued going down just like the rough pic I drew and gone down to make a new low of .67xx it will eventually still break the trendline, it does not mean it's time to buy. {image}
Time is obviously a factor you need to take into account when making your analysis.
  • #100,699
  • Feb 14, 2017 5:56pm Feb 14, 2017 5:56pm
  •  damo
  • | Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Chart Pattern & Trend Trader | 217 Posts
Quoting Not-KPMG
{quote}  Do we know why this jump??? Why today?  Yellen....  Possible stop hunt....or news that are due in 26 hours have been leaked and they are good (employment).  Wait and see. Don't buy ofcourse.Â
I have to admit, if it were to rally I expected it at around 9am Sydney time, not last night. Possibly some guys working late. Anyway, its a fairly strong and unusual rally and a strange time. With the weak volume in that part of the trading session my guess from experience that it is a price manipulation, simply because a bank with money muscle behind them can push that price so easily when their is minimal volume.

Also, the price usually moves in the opposite direction before the new announcement. Some traders at the bank may be intending to dump the AUD on news.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #100,700
  • Feb 14, 2017 6:31pm Feb 14, 2017 6:31pm
Beats me, there's nothing involving AUD out (news) anytime soon, and US news tonight.
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