The Really Useless Thread | Page 7381 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Really Useless System 25 replies

Bloomberg: VIX Indicator useless for forecasting the direction of equity prices 0 replies

The Really Really Boring Forex System 97 replies

Attachments: The Really Useless Thread
Exit Attachments

The Really Useless Thread

  • #147,601
  • Feb 10, 2017 3:12pm Feb 10, 2017 3:12pm
C
  • #147,602
  • Feb 10, 2017 4:06pm Feb 10, 2017 4:06pm
US Equities in a fresh ATH break up in weekly pretty much closing the door for anyone else to jump on board. If you are not in (or clear) you missed the train and is nothing in play in US Equities for the foreseeable future.

I lv to have killer exhaustion gasp next week with a large move but thats more on the wishful thinking for now. The easy part of the move in US Equities is gone for the year in my books.

On the FX front, no surprises whatsoever across the board. Euro rolling as widely expected @ 1.063x (goosebone clear or not yet about these easy W rolls in advance?). A neutral but rather scary looking W close.

Bulls lost foot for the first time in 8 weeks but we couldn't neither lock 1.084x, neither set the high (or low for that matter) of this Q and M yet ...so nothing new and nothing to do but same levels, same trades, same all.
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,603
  • Edited 4:41pm Feb 10, 2017 4:16pm | Edited 4:41pm
Quoting sisse
(goosebone clear or not yet about these easy W rolls in advance?).
Getting it. Thanks.
And I can see what you mean about my stops, targets, tp levels. Pretty out of whack. Didn't really constitute a valid plan. You said I'd be laughing at it later. I am.

Spent the week watching my employees steal fistfuls of cash from my business on closed circuit surveillance. I've been focused on growing the thing and lost my grasp.Cleaned house and now restaffing (an arduous task no doubt). Sounds unrelated I know. But i saw a connection to my trading recently. A focus on gains will allow you to mismanage risk. Trading, like business is less about what you win and more about what you don't lose.

I appreciate the patience shown in the thread and sisse's willingness to go over some basic stuff.

Good weekend all.
  • #147,604
  • Feb 10, 2017 4:40pm Feb 10, 2017 4:40pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} .... Trading like business is less about what you win and more about what you don't lose. .....
Indeed ...

so to wrap it up for the weekend ...

Question 12:

Now you chose C and as you mentioned " Trading like business is less about what you win and more about what you don't lose" so:

--> We cleared TP1. You are $190 / $160 bucks in profit already locked from your $500 risk:

What is your new risk profile?
What happens if price goes back above 1.080x?
or in simple words how would you manage risk? or its now time to focus on maximising profits?

(there is a rather long series of backposts on exactly these points 'position management' for those interested in a reference)

Good weekend all

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,605
  • Edited Feb 11, 2017 7:05am Feb 10, 2017 4:54pm | Edited Feb 11, 2017 7:05am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Indeed ... so to wrap it up for the weekend ... Question 12: Now you chose C and as you mentioned " Trading like business is less about what you win and more about what you don't lose" so: --> We cleared TP1. You are $190 / $160 bucks in profit already locked from your $500 risk: What is your new risk profile? What happens if price goes back above 1.080x? or in simple words how would you manage risk? or its now time to focus on maximising profits? (there is a rather long series of backposts on exactly these points 'position management' for...
Well, without doing exact calculation right now as it is beer:30 where I live, suffice it to say the risk profile has improved and if price revisits the area i originally entered (in this iteration) it would make sense to scale in again assuming no changes on the FA front. I might be wary of that idea if the reason for higher was an unexpected radical tweet from Trump for instance, but in general as long as nothing really shifted FAwise and the price action was understandable why not take the same trade for better rr? That's the way I'd look at it I guess.
  • #147,606
  • Feb 13, 2017 11:03am Feb 13, 2017 11:03am
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} rebuild short UK100 @ 7200 again
lost 30 on this one, rebuild @ 2.297 stop almost @ BE

UK100 H1:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Picture0011.png Size: 87 KB
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #147,607
  • Feb 13, 2017 12:07pm Feb 13, 2017 12:07pm
Tracking NU 07177 as only important very short term level, lets see if Asia gets something going.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 9544fe29a7294044890c0f06e531c738.png Size: 52 KB
  • #147,608
  • Feb 13, 2017 12:41pm Feb 13, 2017 12:41pm
Quoting sisse
....Very good days for trading across the board....after a rather long and painful couple of weeks finally getting paid here. Clearing main short term targets in US equitiesleaving just final open for the 'just in case' (eyeballing 2330/4.xx) [super check] in an 'exuberance' manic leg. ...
Quoting sisse
... Itchy fingers in US Equities that look more than cook but more interestingly from the FX board, Dollar looks set to take the handle and start the domino. ...
...and I will take that. In nothing else but superb ride. Clearing final target in US Equities with S&P testing 2330.xxx. Clean and inline with expectations ride this year. sisse is officially flat as pancake in US equities.

I would have squeeze it the last crumbs with the current momentum but run out of positions and we are officially inside of sucker's trading area to the long side. ...no complains, not interested AT all in reloading at these levels.

On the FX board, a rather uneventful session, with Euro floating on air just a handful of ticks above 1.058x (for those following the last extra iteration, surprised??)...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,609
  • Feb 13, 2017 3:36pm Feb 13, 2017 3:36pm
--> Very interesting day in markets. First time in a very long time (nearly 4 years) Fundamentals expectations starting to diverge from the crowd expectations in US Equities. US markets closing on the moon as expected but in a textbook case of manic mode with everybody including the average mom-and-pop investor jumping on board.

--> US Equities look awfully high and we'll need an unexpected major shift/push in macro expectations to keep the move going. The high of the quarter (and prolly the year) is around the corner in my books.

On the FX board, also extremely important data coming today also showing a major divergence between macro fundamentals expectations and short term expectations in the Euro.

--> Very solid numbers and forecast in the EZ economy that officially is entering in positive outlook for the first time in nearly 8 years. However as also expected the non specialised press (specially the Murdoch and co press) flooding the headlines with anti Euro / EU headlines.

3/4 are fake and scaremonger headlines the 1/4 are real expectations that will enter in play in the next few weeks via Dutch and French elections. News and media in all topics has become unbearable with so many fake and clickbait news especially for the unaware masses.

--> For trading, there is a major long and mid term early signal that Euro downtrend has its days numbered.

--> As highlighted in the yearly outlook. If Euro holds this massive last risk hurdle (standing against populism, nationalism and the destruction of the common market and getting rid of the UK as the ugly duckling in the EU) this year, it will become a very powerful and in its own right global currency alternative especially with Dollar and Yuan hijacked by politics and national interest instead of economic factors and with Sterling leaving a huge piece of the cake for grabbing in the FX board after Brexit.

Although trading-wise it was a rather normal good day, I am bookmarking today as major day from the macro front both in US equities and Euro. Expecting to get lots of extra data and info in the upcoming weeks that will make things clearer and clearer for most....for now ....not much to see or do but same levels, same trades, same all.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,610
  • Feb 14, 2017 1:38am Feb 14, 2017 1:38am
[quote=sisse;9557217 ....not much to see or do but same levels, same trades, same all. sisse[/quote]

Think , i'm starting to hear this way too much ....

Why? some examples ...

My wife : "how was your day?"

I: "not much to see or do but same levels, same trades, same all"

My wife : "what are we doing this we?"

I: "mhhh, not much to see or do but same levels, same trades, same all"

....

I : "Son, how was your school-day?"

Son: "Dad, not much to see or do but same levels, same trades, same all"

...

  • #147,611
  • Edited 1:50am Feb 14, 2017 1:39am | Edited 1:50am
--> Some overnight and early development. First small serious 'faux pas' from Trump with Flynn showing what everybody already know (Russian oligarchs deep in power in the US) and the second from Europe and a good group of others led by the EU putting all canons towards the WTO for the US border tax.

--> First time ever (???) a major trading issue involving the US against the whole world could take place in the WTO but strangely at it may sound with the US on the accused chair as the free rider in free trade. Keeping a very close eye here as this is one of the major triggers both market and especially FX wise.

--> Expecting a rather powerful and 'generous' (tax cuts for the big corporation and all that with an 'unexpected' extra cherry on top)... announcement from the US government as early as today to bury the scandal and keep markets turning a blind eye short term on what is cooking not that far ion the horizon, riding greed and asking question later.

Keeping a very close eye from the 'Tweeter-in-Chief' when US wakes up today as noise in the City is very loud this morning...

For this morning, all eyes on Euro 1.058 holding. There is very little support below until the 1.04xx handle ...

sisse

PS: @ change ...je je je ... we'll thats what happen when we have a full house in play. You name it, we have pretty much all markets in play and mostly in deep positions...only US equities cleared ...got the feeling will have a 'domino of [checks]' in the upcoming sessions....If you want to keep a instrument or particular play open for live discussion you need to post and follow up with the view either via PM or in the thread...
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,612
  • Feb 14, 2017 1:58am Feb 14, 2017 1:58am
Quoting sisse
PS: @ change ...je je je ... we'll thats what happen when we have a full house in play. You name it, we have pretty much all markets in play and mostly in deep positions...only US equities cleared ...got the feeling will have a 'domino of [checks]' in the upcoming sessions....If you want to keep a instrument or particular play open for live discussion you need to post and follow up with the view either via PM or in the thread...
just a little joke sisse,

following everything with great interest and with a better understanding that in the past.
  • #147,613
  • Feb 14, 2017 2:05am Feb 14, 2017 2:05am
Quoting change
{quote} just a little joke sisse, following everything with great interest and with a better understanding that in the past.
I know no worries. ....but some newcomers around don't get that all trading discussion come from the backposts from [mostly not always possible] before expectations change [the why and what will make markets change] -> then when expectations change [the when they start chaining] -> choose your poison time [when to start trading] -> the actual trade [the how]-> letting the trade pan out [here is the same levels, same trades, same all] -> and only then comes the updates (the [checks] or [failures]) for good or bad -> ....

So they think all the FA [that sadly lately has been polluted by populist hijacking markets and economic policy in the short term] discussions are just for 'fun' and not related to the trades. While the same levels, etc etc is just some secret hidden formula/system that only very few know in the thread ... je je je

GL today ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,614
  • Edited 2:36am Feb 14, 2017 2:11am | Edited 2:36am
Hi Sisse!

You wrote that mid and long term downtrend in Euro will end soon. You see no parity and below? I'm aiming as low as 0.93. You think we will not get there?
  • #147,615
  • Feb 14, 2017 2:24am Feb 14, 2017 2:24am
UK100 short stop @ BE, free ride this time hope it holds
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #147,616
  • Feb 14, 2017 3:09am Feb 14, 2017 3:09am
Quoting USD-Bear
UK100 short stop @ BE, free ride this time hope it holds
Where you aim? 71xx or below?
  • #147,617
  • Feb 14, 2017 3:23am Feb 14, 2017 3:23am
Quoting Grinsakh
{quote} Where you aim? 71xx or below?
st 7100 indeed is my 1st target below 3500 on a longer horizon but just fishing atm
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #147,618
  • Feb 14, 2017 4:17am Feb 14, 2017 4:17am
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} st 7100 indeed is my 1st target below 3500 on a longer horizon but just fishing atm

CPI helped the flow up again unfortunatelly.
  • #147,619
  • Feb 14, 2017 6:44am Feb 14, 2017 6:44am
hi guys ... hope every1 is fine and accumulating green pips ....

got an imminent break down alert .... if breached 1.067x on the upside breakdown invalid .....
Re-Incarnated
  • #147,620
  • Feb 14, 2017 7:18am Feb 14, 2017 7:18am
Quoting primejarvis
hi guys ... hope every1 is fine and accumulating green pips .... got an imminent break down alert .... if breached 1.067x on the upside breakdown invalid .....
Not sure how imminent, i still see 650 as likely test.
45 traders viewing now