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variety of resources what works and what doesn't 98 replies

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What works, and what doesn't

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  • Post #181
  • Quote
  • May 6, 2016 2:49pm May 6, 2016 2:49pm
  •  Techanalyst
  • | Membership Revoked | Joined Jul 2020 | 7,294 Posts
Liquidity.
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  • Post #182
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  • Feb 9, 2017 6:17pm Feb 9, 2017 6:17pm
  •  bloodpoodle
  • Joined Dec 2010 | Status: Member | 572 Posts
Too many supply/demand posts... You will find trading sam seidens stuff will make you broke... if you want to discuss his BS go to a supply demand forum..

Mark out the Strong and weak area's..
Post some charts of strong moves vs weak moves.
note the time of day, london open, usa open ect.
study it.. do it over and over...
be picky.. don't take every signal.
The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
 
 
  • Post #183
  • Quote
  • Edited Feb 10, 2017 6:01pm Feb 9, 2017 6:27pm | Edited Feb 10, 2017 6:01pm
  •  bloodpoodle
  • Joined Dec 2010 | Status: Member | 572 Posts
Eliminate these words from your vocabulary...
Trend
trendline
supply/demand
momentum

Ad these words:
volatility
Liquidity
Lack of Liquidity
Weak move (spike)
strong move (grind)
sideways and sloppy.
London open, london lunch, usa open, london close, japan/china open/lunch

Do this, study this, and your trading will Improve!
The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
 
10
  • Post #184
  • Quote
  • Feb 9, 2017 6:35pm Feb 9, 2017 6:35pm
  •  bloodpoodle
  • Joined Dec 2010 | Status: Member | 572 Posts
Also try averaging in..
Most profitable traders split their trade into 3 or 4 parts.
If your trading .1 trade .03's and let the trade develop.. looking for strong weak moves along the way.
Try this.. it may surprise you at how much more your able to manage a trade, give it a shot for a week!
The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
 
 
  • Post #185
  • Quote
  • Feb 9, 2017 9:48pm Feb 9, 2017 9:48pm
  •  TooSlow
  • Joined Mar 2012 | Status: Trader | 11,851 Posts
Quoting bloodpoodle
Disliked
Eliminate these words from your vocabulary... Trend trendline supply/demand Ad these words: volatility Liquidity Lack of Liquidity Weak move (spike) strong move (grind) sideways and sloppy. London open, london lunch, usa open, london close, japan/china open/lunch Do this, study this, and your trading will Improve!
Ignored
You are not going to make many friends with blasphemy like that.
I know from first hand experience.
Keep it up.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
 
 
  • Post #186
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  • Feb 10, 2017 3:18pm Feb 10, 2017 3:18pm
  •  bloodpoodle
  • Joined Dec 2010 | Status: Member | 572 Posts
LOL
People who been trying trendlines or supply demand, and failing... Might just give it a try.... Sometimes changing the way you think is the answer.

We have all been down the trendline road.. Its the first thing 99% of traders do...


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The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
 
3
  • Post #187
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  • Feb 11, 2017 1:26pm Feb 11, 2017 1:26pm
  •  bloodpoodle
  • Joined Dec 2010 | Status: Member | 572 Posts
WHen is the best time of day for a major reversal? London open, USA open
I'm in a trade and it spikes in my favor, what should i do? Take some or all profit! Spikes don't hold long.. so neither should you.
......... I call this quick pip rule. if i get 10-30 pip spike I take some profit! depending on volititilty that day...
Price is sideways.. no volitlity at all what should i be doing? Waiting.. Maybe play some Grand theft auto while waiting.
What other stuff should I be watching? Stock markets many countrys, gold, oil, bonds, Dollar index.. Try to figure out where money is flowing.
IS this method easy? No, you must watch charts till your eyes bleed, before you get the feel. But it will happen!
What should I be doing into major news? Wait and expect volitiity. Don't gamble pre-news.
Any books you recommend? Market mind games, (shull) trading psych book
What other traders could I follow? Chris lori.. chrislori.com he also has youtubes (highly recommended)
Who tought you about volititilty? Chris lori
I want to get rich quick, like in a month! LOL good luck but you'll probably end up broke.
How much should i risk per trade? Thats up to you.. but the less the better. probably less then 1% if your not profitable consistantly for months!
Why average into a trade? Because it give you more control. Averaging in means taking one position and splitting it into 3 more parts.
.........It does not mean taking a full sized part and adding 2 more full sized parts to it.
The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
 
3
  • Post #188
  • Quote
  • Feb 11, 2017 4:01pm Feb 11, 2017 4:01pm
  •  WolGod
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Aug 2016 | 377 Posts
Quoting bloodpoodle
Disliked
I have done backtests of multiple systems trying to find what works and what doesn't work. The one thing I found is market likes to be efficient and doesn't like quick moves which are highly inefficient. Market likes to range 75% of the time So these quick inefficient moves often get faded right back into range. This is what my research has shown. If you have other research consisting of 1000 back tests in all market conditions please share! I'm looking for statistical proof of what works and what doesn't. Please post any research of 1000+ backtests...
Ignored
Great post. Correct post. You should look into volume and cum delta. You are on the right track. BUT youll get hounded for saying trendlines and stochastics dont work!! LOL trendlines are absolute BS. People nake them work like fitting a square ibto a circle and then say it worked.
Anyway well done. Especially the timing of trades but thats hard work and no one wants to hear that trading is hard work. No, peope want an EA or a system thatcworks in every condition. LOL!
 
 
  • Post #189
  • Quote
  • Feb 11, 2017 4:22pm Feb 11, 2017 4:22pm
  •  TGS
  • Joined Dec 2016 | Status: Member | 464 Posts
My guess is that trend lines work better for people who are more intuitive and subjective, not so much for people who are more analytical and objective.
 
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  • Post #190
  • Quote
  • Edited 5:44pm Feb 11, 2017 5:31pm | Edited 5:44pm
  •  bloodpoodle
  • Joined Dec 2010 | Status: Member | 572 Posts
Time of day studys are a good thing.

example-- Study of what euro does after usa open..
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Size: 121 KB


From this chart I see USA SESSION USUALLY BUYS EURO's after usa opens... Knowing this gives me an edge.
This is a hint to my session bias

Time of day studys help me put odds in my favor.
The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
 
3
  • Post #191
  • Quote
  • Feb 11, 2017 6:07pm Feb 11, 2017 6:07pm
  •  TooSlow
  • Joined Mar 2012 | Status: Trader | 11,851 Posts
Quoting bloodpoodle
Disliked
Time of day studys are a good thing. example-- Study of what euro does after usa open.. euros.jpg;2183908 From this chart I see USA SESSION USUALLY BUYS EURO's after usa opens... Knowing this gives me an edge. This is a hint to my session bias Time of day studys help me put odds in my favor. {image}
Ignored
Do you have statistics to show?
Frequency distributions of ranges, high-open, open-low?
Bull/Bear candle statistics?
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
 
 
  • Post #192
  • Quote
  • Feb 11, 2017 6:15pm Feb 11, 2017 6:15pm
  •  TooSlow
  • Joined Mar 2012 | Status: Trader | 11,851 Posts
Quoting bloodpoodle
Disliked
Too many supply/demand posts... You will find trading sam seidens stuff will make you broke... if you want to discuss his BS go to a supply demand forum.. Mark out the Strong and weak area's.. Post some charts of strong moves vs weak moves. note the time of day, london open, usa open ect. study it.. do it over and over... be picky.. don't take every signal.
Ignored
Heresy!

ROFLMAO!!
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
 
 
  • Post #193
  • Quote
  • Feb 11, 2017 7:27pm Feb 11, 2017 7:27pm
  •  WolGod
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Aug 2016 | 377 Posts
These forums are a pissa.
even the members who donhave aclue about HOW markets are traded STILL believe things that have no context with that. Gee if only there was something that showed us the instos accumulating to one side or the other??? Mmmm wonder what we could use?
 
 
  • Post #194
  • Quote
  • Edited 8:53pm Feb 11, 2017 8:24pm | Edited 8:53pm
  •  dkrock
  • Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Gone | 1,106 Posts
Quoting bloodpoodle
Disliked
Time of day studys are a good thing.
Ignored
I can understand how you might think that way. In essence it is really no different than supply/demand that you mock. It is the same exact data, but in a different format. Historical highs/lows. Funny. All useless in my opinion. I have never figured out how to make money by trading yesterday's movement. But many people claim to do it. Funny.

I have two indicators to help you with this theory, but you should realize that it might work most of the time, but certainly not all the time. If it worked consistently, everyone would do it and the market would be easy to trade. One simple observation is that if the market is not anticipating news AND not moving, when it normally would, it means the bigger moves are going to happen in another market. This is why periodically you see giant moves, for no reason, at the end-of-day New York. They are just switching things up. Last week entry signals started an hour before Frankfurt, so why would that happen? It is just part of the game. The orders still have to be filled, but they slow roll it and bore you to death and then do it. Or start early and leave you sitting there staring. All a game. But, most of the time you can figure it will cycle because the transfers of money on certain days of the week and against certain news releases are routine. Based on my 30,000+ hours of chart time, I would assume you could make profit by using a decent stop loss over a number of trading attempts. You will probably be frustrated and confused a lot, but if you stick with it I "think" you might make profit eventually.

Just a piece of advice. You mentioned in post 1 that you think the market tends to range most of the time. I agree. A range on a higher time frame appears like a trend on a lower time frame. Since the market ranges most of the time, then a rational (logical) person would create a method to trade ranges. Of course, the market does stop at some point, and you can call that a high/low, but that trade is finished. Those traders that attempt to trade dead trades make no sense to me. The market has moved on into another range trade. But these traders trading dead trades are abundant, rude, and broke. Oh well. Good Luck.

Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 HourlyMovement.ex4   5 KB | 305 downloads
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 DailyMovement.ex4   7 KB | 318 downloads
You cannot be extraordinary by being normal
 
 
  • Post #195
  • Quote
  • Feb 11, 2017 11:18pm Feb 11, 2017 11:18pm
  •  bloodpoodle
  • Joined Dec 2010 | Status: Member | 572 Posts
Indicator spam above! Don't get it....

You want a connection with price movements on a deep internal level... Don't cover you charts with any BS indicators that will distract your focus from Price structure created by candles.

The only thing I use on my charts is London session highlight so I can do "time of day studys" more easy. Lets me visually see London session over a period of many days.
Everything you need to know is in the candles.

Attached Image


Attached Image


Want your trading to look like this? Don't use indicators..
The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
 
2
  • Post #196
  • Quote
  • Feb 11, 2017 11:23pm Feb 11, 2017 11:23pm
  •  wendigo
  • | Joined Nov 2012 | Status: i am mr gold | 221 Posts
this is the way i trade these days. wait for an inefficiency to pop up and trade the market till its efficient again. gaps in liquidity or liquidity vacuums are my bread and butter..

wendigo
 
 
  • Post #197
  • Quote
  • Edited Feb 12, 2017 12:34am Feb 11, 2017 11:47pm | Edited Feb 12, 2017 12:34am
  •  bloodpoodle
  • Joined Dec 2010 | Status: Member | 572 Posts
From post #191
Q. Do you have statistics to show?
Frequency distributions of ranges, high-open, open-low?
Bull/Bear candle statistics?

A. You need to do your own studys, so you have confidence in the results. And confidence in the trades that result from them.
The amount of detail you want to include is up to you. I've seen traders do
Highly statistical study's, others are just looking for general patterns like the time of day study above. (post #190)
Go as deep into it as you want to! or as basic as you want!

If you do the study's yourself you will have full confidence in it, above what reading somebody else study will ever give! (again,a deep personal connection to your work) You will own the study. You will be proud of the study. You will profit from the study!
They don't have to be rocket science.. but if that's your style and your a statistics guru, go for it! If you just want to spot a basic pattern... that's cool too!
Do what works best for your personality. Make it fun, don't over do it and stress yourself.

If your some guru can even do this... LOL
But this sorta stuff is way above my head!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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credit: image Q Farooq Akram, Dagfinn Rime and Lucio Sarno
http://www.norges-bank.no/upload/imp...rb-2005-12.pdf
The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
 
 
  • Post #198
  • Quote
  • Feb 12, 2017 12:24am Feb 12, 2017 12:24am
  •  bloodpoodle
  • Joined Dec 2010 | Status: Member | 572 Posts
way to go wendingo!
The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
 
 
  • Post #199
  • Quote
  • Feb 12, 2017 9:14am Feb 12, 2017 9:14am
  •  TooSlow
  • Joined Mar 2012 | Status: Trader | 11,851 Posts
Quoting bloodpoodle
Disliked
From post #191 Q. Do you have statistics to show? Frequency distributions of ranges, high-open, open-low? Bull/Bear candle statistics? A. You need to do your own studys, so you have confidence in the results. And confidence in the trades that result from them. The amount of detail you want to include is up to you. I've seen traders do Highly statistical study's, others are just looking for general patterns like the time of day study above. (post #190) Go as deep into it as you want to! or as basic as you want! If you do the study's yourself you...
Ignored
So you are choosing not to share/show your study but you show your equity curve?
Rather than teach you choose to tease.
It is difficult to glean anything from Post #190.
At one time of day they are buying.
At the same time on another day, they are selling.
Not begging for trading signals like Trader-Dale followers.
Only seeking to learn "how to fish".

Attached Image
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
 
 
  • Post #200
  • Quote
  • Edited 10:57am Feb 12, 2017 9:26am | Edited 10:57am
  •  TooSlow
  • Joined Mar 2012 | Status: Trader | 11,851 Posts
Quoting bloodpoodle
Disliked
Time of day studys are a good thing. example-- Study of what euro does after usa open.. euros.jpg;2183908 From this chart I see USA SESSION USUALLY BUYS EURO's after usa opens... Knowing this gives me an edge. This is a hint to my session bias Time of day studys help me put odds in my favor. {image}
Ignored
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: TooSlow2.png
Size: 59 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: TooSlow1.png
Size: 63 KB


H1 and H4 candles may provide a clue.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
 
 
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