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The Really Useless Thread

  • #147,581
  • Feb 10, 2017 4:23am Feb 10, 2017 4:23am
Quoting chester123
{quote} ....
I wouldn't pay too much attention to Germany right now as is with its hands tie for the next few months. If France doesn't flop, Germany will be a in a privilege position to take a huge boost and position of leadership not only in Europe but worldwide.... for now elections, elections, election first.

--> US and UK are in the front line to dismantle the block, the US is easy to understand why with Trump (pure Geopolitics and bullying crumbs instead of the largest economic block and free market in the world), the UK is just short term old emotional and irrational posturing with just the bad part of 'englishness' at its best with a dozen Dinosaurs in power thinking England (not the UK) is still a world Empire that confuse membership with the EU with just isolating itself from Europe and the world beyond the Brussels and EU blah...

-->Right now the Murdoch and co with help of Ukipers/ May and etc across Europe and with a nice hand from Trump are putting an 'all in' betting on France flopping (you will see hundred of headlines flooding the main wires and social media talking about Le Pen...copy/paste brexit and Trump proven successful style).

Greece is irrelevant (just noise and half lies / truths headline for bond markets positioning before the next payment round). France is not the game changer for good in this election in play but a game changer for bad ...If France flops thats it ...no need for anything else Europe is gone geopolitically in tiny crumbs and US can focus on China and Russia later.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,582
  • Feb 10, 2017 4:32am Feb 10, 2017 4:32am
Quoting sisse
{quote} I wouldn't pay too much attention to Germany right now as is with its hands tie for the next few months. If France doesn't flop, Germany will be a in a privilege position to take a huge boost and position of leadership not only in Europe but worldwide.... for now elections, elections, election first. --> US and UK are in the front line to dismantle the block, the US is easy to understand why with Trump (pure Geopolitics and bullying crumbs instead of the largest economic block and free market in the world), the UK is just short term old...
weŽll see. France floping is still extremelly unlikely - but who knows now in the times of fake news and manipulation and of course there is still more time for some terrorists attack. In any case, should it materialize the bigger impact on markets its gonna have - in this seriousness its more like 2008 again.

P.S.: do you have any opinion on the maps I posted?
  • #147,583
  • Feb 10, 2017 4:54am Feb 10, 2017 4:54am
Quoting chester123
{quote} well see. France floping is still extremelly unlikely - ...:
--> Yeap agree ...it doesn't sound really French aligning to the current UK and US trend ... it will provide some noise until first round, we'll need to keep a close eye if the Neonazis don't pass to the second round, if not we would bury the story faster than the headline of the French new President ...until then ...

Quote
do you have any opinion on the maps I posted?

--> Yes i saw them. I don't really like them . You are making things too hard for you to digest.

My 2 cents is try to go back to basic and keep it as simple as possible but no less...

 

  1. Try separating concerns. Keep you FA chart aside of your trading charts. Your FA chart is for your outlook and the macro forces in play to define direction.
  2. Keep you direction chart with just a macro view of the direction in the main range no more no less.
  3. Keep your actual trading chart with all your technicalities. Sure you can add some main FA annotations here and there but don't flood your canvas with so much information as you would get paralyse with information overload.

If you want my honest feedback: try again.

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,584
  • Feb 10, 2017 5:08am Feb 10, 2017 5:08am
Quoting sisse
{quote} --> Yeap agree ...it doesn't sound really French aligning to the current UK and US trend ... it will provide some noise until first round, we'll need to keep a close eye if the Neonazis don't pass to the second round, if not we would bury the story faster than the headline of the French new President ...until then ... {quote} --> Yes i saw them. I don't really like them . You are making things too hard for you to digest. My 2 cents is try to go back to basic and keep it as simple as possible but no less... Try separating concerns....
ok, ill post a remake over the weekend. one of the problems is that its equities - mostly in uptrend, noisy volatile legs, lots of pinabrs etc. :/ forex is much easier to chart.
  • #147,585
  • Feb 10, 2017 7:26am Feb 10, 2017 7:26am
Quoting sisse
E...y key highlight in OIL triggering major early imminent break up alerts for the mid term for 62.2x with ext the crazy 72.3x (this is still locked both FA and TAwise). Oil ju...xtremely feeble and above the $54.xx its just plenty of ai
...and I will take that in OIL. Clearing first target on the test 53.8x. Now the hard part starts, if we take $54.xx buckle up as we are going for a nice ride. For now, no break no shake no nothing ....

For those in CAD, things a bit more noisy as we have conflicting sides now. Eyes on a pop in Oil as it will unlock the floor and below 1.30xx...

On the rest of the board, all markets behaving. NY open for reports that can just put the cherry on top for US Equities ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,586
  • Feb 10, 2017 7:56am Feb 10, 2017 7:56am
....and right on time for NY, in a rather long overdue leg, double clearing in the Euro fresh first mid term target and main short target with the test 1.061x. Well done all those riding the short or/and midterm legs from the 1.08xx handle.

Heat is gone but there is nothing else to see, neither expecting much to the down side with 1.061x holding.

Quoting sisse
{quote} Why so defensive ... I just asked why? ...just part of the iteration ...as you see I wanted to [miss]lead you to this answer. ... How can you change/make opinions in 4 hours intraday moves.Question 10:

-> Long 1.080x -> STP 1.070x -> TP1 1.098x -> TP2 1.108x
or
-> Short 1.078x -> STP 1.088x -> TP1 1.0680 -> TP2 1.058x

You don't have to call it openly if you think it will influence your actual real trading...
@goosebone we have updates on the iteration coming later

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,587
  • Feb 10, 2017 8:22am Feb 10, 2017 8:22am
Quoting chester123
{quote} ok, ill post a remake over the weekend. one of the problems is that its equities - mostly in uptrend, noisy volatile legs, lots of pinabrs etc. :/ forex is much easier to chart.
Well in Equities the short side is not sustainable as permanent strategy.

Directly shorting Stocks is very limited in reality and what you will get is either a correction or a selloff in panic. When you short an index is because the whole market is moving in synch down. You will have a macro effect in the perceived value of the basket not in the estimation of value of one company, stock or Sector making shorting a counter productive strategy if you use it alone. Simply you have to be very skilful, sharp and very quick to go in and out.

When aiming for a macro swing down in Equities, you need all the ducks aligned andthese are the hardest to call across the world because you are betting against the whole economic system either on a severe slowdown, a panic selloff or a very dramatic turn in the real economy...

Don't want to go in technicalities but I don't really get what a pinbar has to do with anything here and if we are assuming a pinbar is what you are looking for a trigger why?, why are you looking for a pinbar to entry against the trend? ..

I would understand your idea from a TA point of view if we are in retrace and you want an entry long (or in a downtrend and we are in a pullback for and entry short) ....

Just a quick TA concept that apply for most indicators even those candle based. Don't use a continuation trigger (i.e a crossover or oversold/overbought oscillator, or fade a fib ext, or a candlestick formation or all the other common things etc etc)) for a reversal entry against the trend ...thats a very basic but very useful notion

We'll discuss later about the FTSE ....for now eyes on the open with all markets eager to continue on the first risk on ride of the year ....lets see if NY plays ball.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,588
  • Feb 10, 2017 11:10am Feb 10, 2017 11:10am
Quoting chester123
{quote} ok, ill post a remake over the weekend. one of the problems is that its equities - mostly in uptrend, noisy volatile legs, lots of pinabrs etc. :/ forex is much easier to chart.
Ye true, liquid markets are easier to chart, but in reality what trully is easy to chart is symetry. And in general its true FX gets it more often than stocks, but interestingly the most frequent heavily symetrical flows are often in "liquid" or perhaps "active" low caps in equities. The general problem that chartists make is to dive into high cap stocks above 100 usd becouse they feel safe swiming in it, forcing very asymetrical price movements and usually asymetrical performance, while the real party is going elsewhere. Truly the best performing charts are the most obvious ones (including counter squeezes-eg oposite to what most eyes are watching) and the cleanest ones. That is one of reason why symetrical ranges are usually targeted by big boys with double wipes.

For individual stocks i think its extremely important to make watchlist with macro and micro preparation to be ready for what you want to see and let market deliver it to you before you start doing anything, well not really that different from FX since that is good recipe to go there too, but really in stocks you have to compensate for larger spread/commission, PDT (if), slippages etc.
  • #147,589
  • Feb 10, 2017 11:21am Feb 10, 2017 11:21am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Well in Equities the short side is not sustainable as permanent strategy. Directly shorting Stocks is very limited in reality and what you will get is either a correction or a selloff in panic. When you short an index is because the whole market is moving in synch down. You will have a macro effect in the perceived value of the basket not in the estimation of value of one company, stock or Sector making shorting a counter productive strategy if you use it alone. Simply you have to be very skilful, sharp and very quick to go in and out. When...
Shorting stocks in and out not holding over night is something that is doable where you can avoid the unlimited downside on your acc and terrible loss, but what still intrigues me is certain asset managers that put half of fund short on equity market as they see things rolling over, carry trough for year two or three, acomulating quite a DD, and then still come right trough other side. Crisis in and crisis out and they outperform regular long only funds. Rationality when they get in trade and some justifications i saw were great, really hard to find any holes in analytics, other than...market can still be in lalala land for while and go higher before the reality truly sets in. Its quite interesting trade, becouse it really shows that trading is not just about finding true facts, nor about reading market sentiment, its quite something in between, finding the fact but then waiting for market to start absorbing the "reality". But i guess they do it more from perspective...well there is only one way to be in first, is to short upside move, not waiting for the second part. Maybe its just difference due to size, with large size you have to be in faster than the other "confirmation" seekers.
  • #147,590
  • Feb 10, 2017 12:24pm Feb 10, 2017 12:24pm
A great day for trading across the board ....uff we were missing a 'normal' day with markets in control rather than politicians BS and a tweeter handle (although the trigger was through twiter ...je je je).

All markets in the move with irrelevant closes in the making. On the fx board tracking tangentially 1.063x as soft visual reference only for todays roll ...

sisse


Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Shorting stocks in and out not holding over night is something that is doable where you can avoid the unlimited downside on your acc and terrible loss, but what still intrigues me is certain asset managers that put half of fund short on equity market as they see things rolling over, carry trough for year two or three, acomulating quite a DD, and then still come right trough other side. ....
The very very very very very small minority of real funds are just perma bears in Equities. Selling directly a leverage index as main trade is not a sustainable strategy and that pretty much a fact. Obviously getting a good hammer on a correction, pullback, panic selloff or selling quickly the short term legs in a economic recession/downturn is always good for those sharp and flexible enough to do it ....the majority of large hands and fund can't because of their nature.

If you want to be bearish and short a major economic downturn, there is one million way to do (especially through derivates) that will give you a lot better bang for the buck and risk than selling the index directly...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,591
  • Feb 10, 2017 12:32pm Feb 10, 2017 12:32pm
Daniel K. Tarullo submits resignation as member of Board of Governors, effective on or around April 5, 2017: https://t.co/gL2ddmcr6D
Re-Incarnated
  • #147,592
  • Edited 2:22pm Feb 10, 2017 1:14pm | Edited 2:22pm
Time to start wrapping the conversation. @goosebone you should get plenty of nuggets. Most you already knew it so lets go
Quoting sisse
{quote} Question 10: -> Long 1.080x -> STP 1.070x -> TP1 1.098x -> TP2 1.108x or -> Short 1.078x -> STP 1.088x -> TP1 1.0680 -> TP2 1.058x You don't have to call it openly if you think it will influence your actual real trading... sisse

Question 10:

-> Long 1.080x -> STP 1.070x -> TP1 1.098x -> TP2 1.108x
or
-> Short 1.078x [check]-> STP 1.088x -> TP1 1.0680 [check]-> TP2 1.058x

To make it efficient lets go one by one on each (some not all the question) but now 'after the fact'. This is only for the short term iteration we opened a extra iteration for the FED play not the mid term one (you can do it yourself)

 

  1. First here is the short term chart update. Simple, clear, nothing changed, nothing has changed yet since Dec...


Before

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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After
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2017-02-10 at 19.03.48.png Size: 221 KB


Then we move to stops, risk, targets and finally to the technicalities.

....
sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,593
  • Feb 10, 2017 1:22pm Feb 10, 2017 1:22pm
Quoting sisse
A great day for trading across the board ....uff we were missing a 'normal' day with markets in control rather than politicians BS and a tweeter handle (although the trigger was through twiter ...je je je). All markets in the move with irrelevant closes in the making. On the fx board tracking tangentially 1.063x as soft visual reference only for todays roll ... sisse {quote} The very very very very very small minority of real funds are just perma bears in Equities. Selling directly a leverage index as main trade is not a sustainable strategy and...
Sure, no doubt about it those are tiny minority, just by default performance of avarage fund operators. As for flexibility i wasnt really talking about those that go into exposure trough derivates, but rather "mainstream" index shorters. Thats why its interesting. Basically its very simplistic almost stubborn way to go about it, similar to the way retailer would do it with little funds, and expousure is the same, with one expection that for fund operator there are investors jumping up and down once the DD begins.
  • #147,594
  • Feb 10, 2017 1:40pm Feb 10, 2017 1:40pm
Quoting sisse
...Then we move to stops, risk, targets and finally to the technicalities. .... sisse {image} {image}
I am going to bypass the technicalities and the management to wrap up the max natural stop and the first target.

 

  1. Your stop @ 1.098x didn't make any sense from a r:r perspective. If your natural stop TA wise was that far, you shouldn't have taken the current short because you were out of scope ...I disagree (now I can tell you as I didn't want to bias your view) with both the number from a r:r /level and the TA.

Why your natural stop was outside of the map range?

You were implying the current range was going to be taken and break up. That is outguessing both the break of the range and a major change in outlook.

Direction (mid term) was sell, short term was sell ....you fade the extremes etc etc ....if your stop is outside that far from the range either your outlook is WRONG or your TA Stop is WRONG ....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Don't force neither chart fit the trade.

If you were convinced that we were outlook sell ....just sell ....if you are lost in the outlook and your stop is telling you that is outside of the range against sell ...you should stay sidelined or in the worst case scenario go long for TA reasons alone !!!! no short ...

Avoid making your brain have contradictory decisions. Thats why we follow FA and outlooks so the TA part is only to pull the trigger and not to decide the side !!!!

...now to the technicalities, I first let you decide the map, but after a few answers with hesitation I 'force you to take a side' in a constrain set of options with predefined entry and exits to show the 'trade' from a different angle of choose one or the other instead of trying to interpret anything else ....

so lets check each of the options I gave you ...now after the fact.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,595
  • Feb 10, 2017 1:59pm Feb 10, 2017 1:59pm
That hurts :-( ... Here goes on the profit of this year so far... Closed all my shorts at the very top of that move up
Quoting Xxavier
Anybody know what is Sisse's short term outlook on Gold... I have been watching this since today morning after Trump's tax tweet. Could not control anymore so took a decent size short position...Looks like it is going to go deeep down, at least i hope (^_^).. If anybody have the short term Gold outlook please post here
  • #147,596
  • Edited 2:19pm Feb 10, 2017 2:04pm | Edited 2:19pm
The decision was very simple lets go in detail:

Question 10:

-> Long 1.080x -> STP 1.070x -> TP1 1.098x -> TP2 1.108x

"Either you went long on the break back up 1.080x which by now you should be already locked and loaded....."

Here no stress whatsoever. If you chose long you only needed to take the break up 1.080x after NFP ....Although we closed extremely bullish on daily after NFP with a simple potential reverso play in case of breaking back up ...price never even tick above 1.0800 once ...so if even if you were thinking to go long ...you should have never get filled ....

Now for the fun part:

-> Short 1.078x -> STP 1.088x -> TP1 1.0680 -> TP2 1.058x

I just give you the option to go short on the simple rejection on price entry as simple as that. Before I post a chart lets review the other 2 options I gave you before:

 

  1. The oscillator / indicator entry. We chatted a few examples but it was very simple. Go short on any oversold crossover of (slow stochastic we used) in H4 to avoid drawdown...that was the only rule . Nothing to interpret, nothing to outguess. Just a mechanical trigger.


We got 2 triggers related to this short term trade:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2017-02-10 at 19.56.07.png Size: 278 KB


Nothing to analyse or think. It was just a mechanical trigger. You got 2 entries both around 1.076x. Both decent entries but you would have had a not that bad but drawdown to 1.082x (+/- 60 ticks).

 

  1. The second trigger we discussed was a simple fib on the range (we discussed the details about when to change a range etc etc before). The triggers was going short when price take the 50% line in this case we got this one:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2017-02-10 at 20.02.59.png Size: 301 KB


I don't think I need to say much or where we are right now, do I?

...and finally the price trigger which...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,597
  • Feb 10, 2017 2:18pm Feb 10, 2017 2:18pm
...and finally and the most important one...that you should have take it both for the iteration and in real trading ...was the simple price entry trigger.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2017-02-10 at 20.11.23.png Size: 239 KB


One more time and for the 4th or 5th iteration/ example in a row a simple price based entry was the flawless triggers (as it usually is). Either again 1.076x with NFP or if you played with the limit order around 1.078x (I gave you a few heads ups on 1.078x and you even called it for the W close) or on stp limit @ 1.073x on the micro momentum break. All no brainers with the same signal.

Like always a price based entry would have gave you almost zero drawdown (i this case I think the drawdown was a dozen of ticks in less than 5 minutes).

So now that we are where we are and you know what you know:

Question 11: How would you manage the position?

a. Time to close all 1.061x is going to hold and Trump is a bit unstable ..."he may said something weird over the weekend"
b. Nay ....we are going for the homerun. Not only staying short but adding on a break 1.061x.
c. Nothing to see. Same levels, same trades, same all

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,598
  • Feb 10, 2017 2:37pm Feb 10, 2017 2:37pm
Quoting sisse
...and finally and the most important one...that you should have take it both for the iteration and in real trading ...was the simple price entry trigger. Screen Shot 2017-02-10 at 20.11.23.png;2183253 One more time and for the 4th or 5th iteration/ example in a row a simple price based entry was the flawless triggers (as it usually is). Either again 1.076x with NFP or if you played with the limit order around 1.078x (I gave you a few heads ups on 1.078x and you even called it for the W close) or on stp limit @ 1.073x on the micro momentum break....
Going for C.
  • #147,599
  • Feb 10, 2017 3:02pm Feb 10, 2017 3:02pm
Probably A.....we can expect lot of unexpected
  • #147,600
  • Feb 10, 2017 3:04pm Feb 10, 2017 3:04pm
Went for A in live, because I had limited positions from the 1.0777 entry. Otherwise would have let the remaining positions run. Certainly not adding here.
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