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The Really Useless Thread

  • #147,561
  • Feb 8, 2017 3:30pm Feb 8, 2017 3:30pm
Quoting IMARICH1
chester123, Thanks fro sharing the info. I understand some on the carry-trade but it does get confusing. I read that article which made more sense. However, it is still rather difficult to absorb this within our political situation at the present. Not to mention BOE and FED. Perhaps, .083x will be the HIGH of the Short Term Leg and MID will make a sharp run as sisse has indicated. I appreciate your map you posted as your FLIP is right around where I was looking as well now.
your earlier post had this the other way around, but risk on is risky asset going up and risk off is a flight to safety. so risk off puts a top in equities and a run to dollar.

however, when someone says that euro going up via RISK, it means risk off.

re the carry trade (someone posted you a link), a carry trade is when someone sells a low interest rate currency and buys a higher rate currency. This only works when the spot rate does not move. In other words, the strategy is good for when there is no volatility. So for example, you buy/sell a forward and there will be a positive/negative interest rate component (depending on the IR differential), which you will accrue over the life of the deal. Take CHina. selling CNH is expensive and when done in the future, one really needs to have a view that it will weaken enough to pay for the IR component. If a lot of people are short EUR as a funding currency and suddenly there is an influx of volatility, then people have to square off their positions. (buy EUR).
  • #147,562
  • Feb 8, 2017 3:31pm Feb 8, 2017 3:31pm
Quoting suntan
{quote} Just out of interest was the other bearish close 26 January? Reason being price tried to break 1.0750 for four consecutive days, failed and closed below 1.07 on 26 Jan.
I won't update that play until markets has spoken (right or wrong is irrelevant) as it will defeat and bias t the point of that extra iteration...but feel free to update yours.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,563
  • Feb 8, 2017 4:15pm Feb 8, 2017 4:15pm
Quoting sisse
Not sure about that ...its the capitulation move on risk on the making not the other way around but as long as 1.084x is still open on the top, the bumpy wide intraday noise of the last few weeks will continue. The upcoming mid term leg is going to be very very sharp and furious despite the side. Pretty much guarantee. sisse
Just out of interest what locks 1.084x.

From a purely technical perspective whilst 1.07 is being tested if this breaks 1.084x is only 100 ticks away and there is a chance at another run at the highs. Would losing 1.06 lock it but does fundamentals come into the picture at the moment with a Trump tweet keeping levels open which in normal circumstances would be closed.

I understand levels, maps, flips but not sure what can unlock/lock a level.

My guess would be all levels down to 1.035x are unlocked, and 1.05 being taken would open up 1.00.
Looking up we know 1.084x is unlocked, perhaps up to 1.087x but above this levels still locked.
Taking 1.06 would lock all levels above current highs.

Does this make any sense?
  • #147,564
  • Feb 8, 2017 4:51pm Feb 8, 2017 4:51pm
...and we rolled with a fresh bearish close but nothing out of the ordinary. All markets behaving today. Expecting some movement in the overnight session across Asian Equities ....On the rest not much to see or do with same levels, same trades, same all.

Quoting suntan
{quote} Just out of interest what locks 1.084x. From a purely technical perspective .... would be all levels down to 1.035x are unlocked,
-> Right now? 1.061x (1,061x is FA support on rate differentials ...1.084x on ECB QE)

->Yes levels are unlocked all the way down +/- 1.017x for now but clock is ticking as ECB QE end is coming very soon and that will slam the door close .... Below there is major stacked FA supports levels (also soft TA references only Supports from the early days in the Euro) all the way down to the 0.98xx handle which is technicality open but not fundamentally in my books, not as for today...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,565
  • Feb 9, 2017 7:16am Feb 9, 2017 7:16am
Another uneventful session in Europe with all eyes, ears and tweets still on the US which is now a long overdue trigger for the year.

Itchy fingers in US Equities that look more than cook but more interestingly from the FX board, Dollar looks set to take the handle and start the domino. Soft news coming with another active opening range expected for trading.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,566
  • Feb 9, 2017 7:40am Feb 9, 2017 7:40am
...a +40 year low mark Unemployment Claims .... but as we are hearing lately good numbers from the employment front are lies from bad statistics while bad ones are real and show how crap is the US Economy ....

Only very very stubborn, blind and political bias will argue the US numbers are not booming ....without Trump, hikes will be a done deal (even last month) but given that we need the 'Godfather's' blessing ...nothing to see until twitter unlocks the news ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,567
  • Feb 9, 2017 8:02am Feb 9, 2017 8:02am
Eu silently sitting at the same range .... dont know what is going to trigger the move whether north or south ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #147,568
  • Feb 9, 2017 9:00am Feb 9, 2017 9:00am
opening range completed but very loud gossips coming from all fronts on Trump about to finally announce something .... Last 2 days the same on the open...watchout Euro losing the 1.06xx handle...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,569
  • Feb 9, 2017 9:49am Feb 9, 2017 9:49am
lol, world where all it takes is one promise via tweet
  • #147,570
  • Feb 9, 2017 10:30am Feb 9, 2017 10:30am
Quoting sisse
opening range completed but very loud gossips coming from all fronts on Trump about to finally announce something .... Last 2 days the same on the open...watchout Euro losing the 1.06xx handle... sisse
sisse, one practical Q: FTSE is clear via direction ST MT and LT but I have not loaded there as It always gets draged up by US as I was waiting for something like today. In any case the inpact of US is muted but is there. What is your view - can US drag it to a new ALT or previous high to make something as a double top?
  • #147,571
  • Feb 9, 2017 10:43am Feb 9, 2017 10:43am
Dollar unlocking complex bottoming 2 days ago, JPY unlocking oposite short term top in aprox same timing. 112.5X as UJ, UCHF 9966 key. Lets see what else is in it, currently minimum probable targets not yet reached, could deliver far more short term.
  • #147,572
  • Feb 9, 2017 10:45am Feb 9, 2017 10:45am
GJ below H4 close below 141.80, we shall see nice drop from here. But break 142.400 not valid anymore. No sign of divergence at H4.

We shall consider S. E.L.L Button.
  • #147,573
  • Edited 12:22pm Feb 9, 2017 12:01pm | Edited 12:22pm
Europe going home with markets in upbeat mode with full risk on via Trump expectations. Very solid day here and I have the feeling that this week is far from over.

sisse

Quoting chester123
{quote} sisse, one practical Q: FTSE is clear via direction ST MT and LT but I have not loaded there as It always gets draged up by US as I was waiting for something like today. In any case the inpact of US is muted but is there. What is your view - can US drag it to a new ALT or previous high to make something as a double top?
++++ Very long correlated trading post alert ....feel free to skip reading if you are not into other markets++++

Its very simple in this case Chester. We have discussed for months how to trade a change of outlook.

You just need to be careful because this is a triple whammy Long, Mid and Short term.

--> You have seen many times how 'painful' can be for some letting it play out just for a short term flow. We had/have a mid term in Euro live case that is 3/4 way through already and still lots around finding extremely hard to grasp the magnitude and time it takes to pan out ....you can imagine what would take for a LT one. The only live case we have in the thread is the long term change of outlook in Euro (check backpost including charts to put it in perspective) back in 2011 [still in play in 2017].

--> I know obviously, none of us is aiming to trade the long term leg directly but use it to define major direction and therefore minimise A LOT risk and maximise W%. On the practical side because you have a triple whammy I would recommend you (I very seldom recommend this but giving the circumstances) is to have 2 different set of maps:

  1. Plot your long term chart for macro direction and make your map for the mid term.
  2. Plot your mid term chart for macro direction and make your map for the short term.

Be careful not to get lost in translation, neither start trying to catch the big fish (LT direction) with a small boat (ST map) as you will get painfully and deadly stung many times even if you are right. Nothing worst than being right and still lose money...

You will need 'active' positioning management.

  1. If you ST trigger according to your MT direction is aligned with the mid term trigger and LT direction ==> Go all in with the proper R:R and etc obviously.
  2. If only your ST trigger according to your MT direction is aligned and not the large one ==> enter with a very soft position with as slow or late as possible trigger and run very fast without hesitation on any micro failure ...don't think !!! Just close it. You are not going to miss the boat, even if you 'miss' a few handles at the top.
  3. If only your MT trigger according to your LT direction is aligned and not the smaller one. ==> enter and manage position as you usually do leaving space to scale in when the ST trigger align (keep in mind that in this very particular case this entry might be even higher than the MT one...).

-> I would put it in the scale of a master's 'graduation' trade .... it wont be easy, we won't get much juice at the beginning or a smooth ride. First because its shorting Equities, second because any first legs will be trigger by Risk or a major flop so they will be sharp and fast, and third you have to extremely careful not to get lost in translation at the top as we may change 3 or 4 times ST to neutral and even buy in between ...you know the 'forest for trees' thing ...

->In completely honesty rather than just riding it directly with FTSE (not saying you don't do it), the key in here is in rebalancing your portfolios, risk and investments in general....

Except in panic or a caput leg (e.g Lehaman or War etc) you will be able to get more bang for the buck trading correlated markets and sectors directly not just trading the index directly ...but thats prolly out of scope for this thread and too complicate to put it in a few lines...

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,574
  • Feb 9, 2017 2:26pm Feb 9, 2017 2:26pm
... and I will take that on the close in US equities, clearing short term main target on the test 2310.xx only extension left in both mid and short term.

As widely expected since last 2 weeks we broke to fresh ATH on Trump...we are setting for "trade expectations, sell the fact" at least for now. Very simple and direct ride. Well done all that rode the current short term leg and even better for those still holding from the Trump honeymoon rally break up.

As we have discussed many times here, only 'magic' lines on air at these levels so calling the ultimate top is just a sucker's game. We still have some crumbs left and for the look of it we won't get any further retraces until the final exhaustion gasp.

On the FX board, Euro still hanging by its fingernails but hanging at the end on a wide spread risk on session across the board. Euro looks set to lose the handle as early as the Asian session with Chinese eager hands wiling to jump on board in Dollar ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,575
  • Feb 9, 2017 4:41pm Feb 9, 2017 4:41pm
Quoting sisse
Europe going home with markets in upbeat mode with full risk on via Trump expectations. Very solid day here and I have the feeling that this week is far from over. sisse {quote} ++++ Very long correlated trading post alert ....feel free to skip reading if you are not into other markets++++ Its very simple in this case Chester. We have discussed for months how to trade a change of outlook. You just need to be careful because this is a triple whammy Long, Mid and Short term. --> You have seen many times how 'painful' can be for some letting it play...
ok sisse, Im afraid I did not understand everything mostly about entering with different frames alligned. but here is what I tried based on what u said.

1. LT map (sell): the chart is self explanatory, we overshooting LT extreme, LT direction down + mid term down as well - first suggested leg!!!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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2. MT map (sell): seems confusing BUT.... MT direction is down (arrows) + Im suggesting ST leg down (I cannot find if u updated ST sell - but for the purpose of the chart lets say its sell since BoE). MT leg moves to LT flip. ST leg is its first part.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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3. ST map (sell): sell since BoE =) it killed the extension, we may just get to extreme again.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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So what I see: its time to wait for technical signal on ST/MT/LT lvls.

Any comments welcomed also in context with your previous long post thank you
  • #147,576
  • Feb 10, 2017 12:15am Feb 10, 2017 12:15am
Anybody know what is Sisse's short term outlook on Gold... I have been watching this since today morning after Trump's tax tweet. Could not control anymore so took a decent size short position...Looks like it is going to go deeep down, at least i hope (^_^)..

If anybody have the short term Gold outlook please post here
  • #147,577
  • Feb 10, 2017 12:31am Feb 10, 2017 12:31am
Quoting Xxavier
Anybody know what is Sisse's short term outlook on Gold... I have been watching this since today morning after Trump's tax tweet. Could not control anymore so took a decent size short position...Looks like it is going to go deeep down, at least i hope (^_^).. If anybody have the short term Gold outlook please post here
not will be very useful for you short term trade decide but days ago he had waiting 1203 usd pending long as he said far away from to be filled.
  • #147,578
  • Feb 10, 2017 4:02am Feb 10, 2017 4:02am
--> European opening completed with highlights we were waiting for over 3 weeks. Trump announced the next announcement or whatever that means in terms of tax serious policy making but talk in the street is that Corporate America is set for a major feast.

--> Equally important, US finally in the first match against an equal weight opponent (China) and this time there was not bullying anymore but rather a polite and almost normal US president clearing all the risk from the board in the very short term. How long it will last? ...got the feeling that the cannons are aligning towards the EU in the upcoming weeks to dismantle the block rather quickly and clean the road for a unilateral US world for his presidency

--> Both nothing new and widely expected, and in inline with wide risk on mode this week. In the US economic policy front, things are starting to get 'easier' to read from Trump as most of the big announcements are getting triggered and filtered down with bastards riding the pig before the information is public (no brainer really with such an inner circle of economic advisors ) ....Gold obviously losing foot via risk on and triggering the pullback after the last break.

Without surprises, we are set for the week. Expecting Trump to clarify some comments when US wakes up but for markets NY will settle the final deal..

Nothing to see or do with same levels, same trades, same all.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,579
  • Feb 10, 2017 4:10am Feb 10, 2017 4:10am
Quoting janpec1000
Dollar unlocking complex bottoming 2 days ago, JPY unlocking oposite short term top in aprox same timing. 112.5X as UJ, UCHF 9966 key. Lets see what else is in it, currently minimum probable targets not yet reached, could deliver far more short term.
Closed UJ long from 112.404, leaving second one afloat, closing partially only 20% of it, 114 is now higher significant that opens extended agressive leg if we break and hold it on probability side. Tracking 114Xish closely on micros.
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  • #147,580
  • Feb 10, 2017 4:12am Feb 10, 2017 4:12am
Quoting sisse
--> European opening completed with highlights we were waiting for over 3 weeks. Trump announced the next announcement or whatever that means in terms of tax serious policy making but talk in the street is that Corporate America is set for a major feast. --> Equally important, US finally in the first match against an equal weight opponent (China) and this time there was not bullying anymore but rather a polite and almost normal US president clearing all the risk from the board in the very short term. How long it will last? ...got the feeling...
I think that its exact - they can start the dismanteling via blocking IMF participation in the greeces next rescuae package. Also its getting more and more obvious that what scheuble wants is to have greece out. suprisingly, even germens seem to be annoyed by their participation in the eurozone mostly via ECB. wonder if there is any "wanting" to be in eurozone on any side. its rather just waiting for the one who pulls the trigger out to be the one historically blamed for the failure.
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