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"Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade." Summary 37 replies

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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #25,141
  • Feb 9, 2017 9:43pm Feb 9, 2017 9:43pm
Quoting crixus
Fibonacci question. I was monitoring a potential short setup on Gold given the strength of the equity indices and i saw this retracement to the 38.2%. My question is in relation to the target. What is the target in terms of fib. extention when the trend resumes at the 38.2% retracement level? GoldSetup.png;2181427 {image}
In those videos its either Fib extension 127% or 1-to-1 of the last few significant swings.
  • #25,142
  • Feb 9, 2017 9:48pm Feb 9, 2017 9:48pm
Potential long for EURUSD

wait for bar by bar confirmation

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Ok, anyway, i was a bit lazy to draw already or write so much, but for the sake of new traders, so i add in a little to justify why a long seems plausible now:

Expectations: actually longer term order flow is still to the downside. But I expect a possible reversal now.

Higher high in the last 3 swings.

Projection to upside is meager.

Momentum have increased in the last 2 swings.

Hence expect deep correction. 50% - 80%.

Bar by bar - bulls are stronger in the last two swing. Bears are weaker in the last swing.


What to watch out for in order to not take this trade?
a) overly powerful bears in the last swing.
b) if retracement is too deep, say, 100%.
c) no confirmation bullish engulfing candles.
  • #25,143
  • Feb 10, 2017 12:04am Feb 10, 2017 12:04am
Quoting Mr. Pip
Hello Traders, I will catch up tomorrow I just wanted to make to post session video showcasing all of the mistakes I made. Please look at it and see how sometimes even professionals screw up. Trade well and see you all tomorrow for a better session. Enough crap! https://youtu.be/yI4Pa4Qvs9k
Great video, I know it's not under the best of circumstances but I think we can all relate to this. I did the same thing this week (see what I wanted to see) verses what the market was saying and the market taught me the same lesson over and over and over. I recognized it and finally stopped for the day.

I think the most important part of the lesson is the fact that these types of days can happen to anyone, even the most disciplined professionals when we begin to see what we want to see verses what the market is telling us or our mind just isn't in the proper zone.

It's kind of like the beginner trader can come out anytime. Just like if you used to smoke or had any kind of addiction then you are always vulnerable for the rest of your life to potentially fall back given the right circumstances when certain triggers happen.

One trigger I noticed that you said (and I've done it a lot!) is when you noticed the "double top". We have in our minds that a double top is bearish and I can't tell you how many times I traded it immediately after it made the M and was crushed shortly after.

I started making money after finding your thread and although I struggle with the "beginner trader" sometimes - and sometimes the struggle with psychology or discipline - one thing has shown itself to be right more often than not... and that is following the expectation of the overall orderflow will lead to greater success than trading against it. Finding opportunities to ALIGN with the market vs. against it. I tend to have counter-trend trader mindset since that was my beginner trader. And just when we think, the market "CAN'T" go higher, it does. And finally when we realize that we need to go long, the market has had it's run and it was really time to go short but we missed the cues.

Thanks for sharing your pain with us, because trading includes pain. But one way to look at it is that it is a lesson if you choose to go back and review your lesson and learn from it... and I think that is what you did here. It may have been an expensive lesson but you re-grounded yourself by reviewing your trades, sharing the pain, and can now move forward tol wipe away that loss and continue to profit in no time.
  • #25,144
  • Feb 10, 2017 12:36am Feb 10, 2017 12:36am
Quoting Harmonic1976
{quote} Great video, I know it's not under the best of circumstances but I think we can all relate to this. I did the same thing this week (see what I wanted to see) verses what the market was saying and the market taught me the same lesson over and over and over. I recognized it and finally stopped for the day. I think the most important part of the lesson is the fact that these types of days can happen to anyone, even the most disciplined professionals when we begin to see what we want to see verses what the market is telling us or our mind just...
Yay! I also had that "market cannot go any higher" or "market cannot go any lower" mentality ...

until Damian pops up and says "Follow thy expectations! 70% of the time, market will just go higher n higher (or vice versa)."

The minute I understood that, profitable trades starts to pile up.
  • #25,145
  • Feb 10, 2017 3:29am Feb 10, 2017 3:29am
Quoting Mr. Pip
Hello Traders, I will catch up tomorrow I just wanted to make to post session video showcasing all of the mistakes I made. Please look at it and see how sometimes even professionals screw up. Trade well and see you all tomorrow for a better session. Enough crap! https://youtu.be/yI4Pa4Qvs9k
Screwing up is part and parcel of this business - not many put this out for show....big respect Daminan!!!

trade well
It's a dirty job but someone's gotta do it!
  • #25,146
  • Feb 10, 2017 3:41am Feb 10, 2017 3:41am
Quoting jmezz
{quote} Screenshot1.png;2181283 {image}
nice analysis thanks
It looks very obvious to me now that with the double top prior and the lower highs that there were a couple of opportunities to bail with some profits, I seem to have far too many breakeven trades which is frustrating.
Bulls nor Bears may hide their intent.
  • #25,147
  • Feb 10, 2017 5:26am Feb 10, 2017 5:26am
Missed this long on 6J.
I did not feel comfortable to enter after the strong bearish candle although price got rejected twice from structure.

I've been noticing lately (since the beginning of the year) that the european sessions are very boring and don't give nice rotations.
Oh well.. lets see what the US session will bring to the table.
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  • #25,148
  • Edited 6:14am Feb 10, 2017 5:33am | Edited 6:14am
Quoting Mr. Pip
Hello Traders, I will catch up tomorrow I just wanted to make to post session video showcasing all of the mistakes I made. Please look at it and see how sometimes even professionals screw up. Trade well and see you all tomorrow for a better session. Enough crap! https://youtu.be/yI4Pa4Qvs9k
Yesterday was also expensive for me. I was more thinking on a fade out and then a nice move down. I saw later that you had the same idea and it turned out that we were both wrong.
Currently I have the feeling that I do one step forward and then 2 steps back in trading.

Hope it will be better today.

Thank you for highlighting the points in the video.
  • #25,149
  • Edited 9:21am Feb 10, 2017 7:28am | Edited 9:21am
Eur 5min

see what price will do in this area, if it will continue or reverse.

Price reversed a bit lower

Looking at volume also
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The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #25,150
  • Feb 10, 2017 7:44am Feb 10, 2017 7:44am
Quoting crixus
Fibonacci question. I was monitoring a potential short setup on Gold given the strength of the equity indices and i saw this retracement to the 38.2%. My question is in relation to the target. What is the target in terms of fib. extention when the trend resumes at the 38.2% retracement level? GoldSetup.png;2181427 {image}
I can't remember if you keep track of BC extensions at all. In this example, price pulled back just past the 382. Because price is in between the 382 and the 50, you use both of the correlations for those fibs to build your PRZ. The correlations are 382 = 261.8 and 50 = 200. So then you'd apply fib extensions to the BC leg and price *should* hit your PRZ which is between the 200 and 261 BC extensions.

As a general rule, if you take your 1:1 it will place price in the correct PRZ.

If you only use AB extensions then I'd look to the 127, 141, 161 etc.

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  • #25,151
  • Feb 10, 2017 7:48am Feb 10, 2017 7:48am
YM this morning

Net long but we've pulled back a bit so far.

Expectation is NSH until close below green line.

Tough to get in the mindset to buy up here but yesterday I kept waiting for a short that did not come instead of following order flow.

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  • #25,152
  • Feb 10, 2017 7:53am Feb 10, 2017 7:53am
Quoting jmezz
YM this morning Net long but we've pulled back a bit so far. Expectation is NSH until close below green line. Tough to get in the mindset to buy up here but yesterday I kept waiting for a short that did not come instead of following order flow. Screenshot1.png;2182645 {image}
Perhaps it will hit the 1:1 structure zone

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  • #25,153
  • Feb 10, 2017 8:00am Feb 10, 2017 8:00am
GM Traders, Thanks you for the comments and yes there are good days and certainly bad ones as well. It's important for me to show you this because once we become lazy or undisciplined with our process then things like this can happen. I also believe in complete transparency because I too from time to time specially after a couple of really good months can get lazy of the process driven approach an then the market kicks you in the balls.

For me it's humbling when I have a bad session and come back to find that I ignored or overlooked my process. I have to clean that up and get back to basics.

I would not be a good teacher or mentor if I only showed you the posts of gold. The muddy puddles are a very real part of the business too. And it's more important to show you that then the pots of gold. The going back after a bad session and being able to see where you messed up and had you followed your process would have prevented the draw down is just priceless and critical to growth and success. I also want you to see how I attack and handle adverse outcomes. as this too is important to your development.

I don't keep anything from you, a true professional doesn't only post happy charts. If you are going to give a picture, give the whole picture.

Let's clean it up! Stay on task by following the trade plan and respecting the process that keeps the account fat. It's seems in the last couple of days some have experienced some issues with price. go back like I did and see if it was you cutting corners or anything else.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #25,154
  • Feb 10, 2017 8:06am Feb 10, 2017 8:06am
Quoting Mr. Pip
GM Traders, Thanks you for the comments and yes there are good days and certainly bad ones as well. It's important for me to show you this because once we become lazy or undisciplined with our process then things like this can happen. I also believe in complete transparency because I too from time to time specially after a couple of really good months can get lazy of the process driven approach an then the market kicks you in the balls. For me it's humbling when I have a bad session and come back to find that I ignored or overlooked my process....
It was great to watch your video this morning covering were you messed up yesterday and just as beneficial as seeing your winning tradess, very helpful indeed to myself and everyone else it seems!
  • #25,155
  • Feb 10, 2017 8:11am Feb 10, 2017 8:11am
Quoting Hazza88
{quote} It was great to watch your video this morning covering were you messed up yesterday and just as beneficial as seeing your winning tradess, very helpful indeed to myself and everyone else it seems!
Thanks
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #25,156
  • Feb 10, 2017 8:17am Feb 10, 2017 8:17am
Today we still have a bullish bias and an expectation of a NSH. There is scheduled volatility at 10 so I will be aware of that. We will see what the open brings in but I will be on task today and following my process without cutting any corners.
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If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #25,157
  • Feb 10, 2017 8:29am Feb 10, 2017 8:29am
Quoting Maule
{quote} Just an update on my USD/CAD H4 Trade. Moved SL to BE locking in 13 pips. Now it's a risk free trade. The funny thing is on the last thread I was following there was this guy (the same problem guy) saying that "trades cannot be managed." Now here I am managing a trade. Simply because I choose who to listen to and who to ignore. Question: Did I move the SL too soon? Edit: as I was typing this I noticed a bull candle on the Short term OF coming closer to my SL so moved it back out of the way {image}
2nd Update on UDS/CAD H4 Trade.
Moved SL to BE.
Thanks Mr Pip for making this so easy.
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Play the hand you were dealt.
  • #25,158
  • Feb 10, 2017 8:38am Feb 10, 2017 8:38am
Quoting Maule
{quote} 2nd Update on UDS/CAD H4 Trade. Moved SL to BE. Thanks Mr Pip for making this so easy. {image}
You are welcome trading is not hard. We are the ones that screw up simple things.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #25,159
  • Feb 10, 2017 8:43am Feb 10, 2017 8:43am
Not in anything yet waiting for an opportunity to get long.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #25,160
  • Feb 10, 2017 8:46am Feb 10, 2017 8:46am
I would expect the bears to defend the highs here not that I would take the short but lets see what happens .
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If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
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