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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #3,201
  • Feb 9, 2017 7:06am Feb 9, 2017 7:06am
Quoting Lock
{quote} Do not forget yes pit high: all the game will be played around the acceptation below or above this level(2549) and 25395 yes unch.
as you see..
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  • #3,202
  • Feb 9, 2017 7:45am Feb 9, 2017 7:45am
Very very very difficult market here. Conflicting information and a lot of volatility.
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  • #3,203
  • Feb 9, 2017 8:00am Feb 9, 2017 8:00am
For now we saw a partial liquidation of the weak GB action of this early morning. We got acceptation below yes pit high and maybe yes pit unch. But, obviously I do not like current high. So I really don't know. The liquidation could continue untill all overnight will be taken out or we could have a correction of current weak high.
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  • #3,204
  • Feb 9, 2017 8:09am Feb 9, 2017 8:09am
Well, too much volatility for me. I'm off till news. Let's see later. Best L.
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  • #3,205
  • Feb 9, 2017 9:04am Feb 9, 2017 9:04am
D period was inside C, attempted break below C. But D high is at previous half back 25405: carry this information forward.
You see a new pit poor low right now (25122 short term reference often used last days), so it could continue lower, but all this action downside, starting from 25645 is substantially weak as it used only daily timeframe references to act. So, if something will go wrong downside, you know where price could came back.

Note E period close 4 pips above today GB open: E period was the last one for London.
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  • #3,206
  • Feb 9, 2017 9:08am Feb 9, 2017 9:08am
Btw I think that USDX is heavily influencing cable with its current rally.
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  • #3,207
  • Edited 10:11am Feb 9, 2017 9:50am | Edited 10:11am
While we are here waiting for news, let me tell you a story about human behaviour. Today I made some analysis based upon market generated information. They where substantially correct: I said that in case of acceptation below yes pit high and below yes pit unch we probably would see continuation downside aiming at yesterday pit low. And currently this is what is occurring.
But then, I assure you, I did everything in my power to hurt myself. I continuously tried to anticipate the possible, but not sure, covering of current weak forcing action downside. So, if sometime you learned from my analysis, now learn from my mistake: if you say a thing, if you think a thing you got to remain on it, you have not to think: this time could be different, this time market generated information could fail, this time etc...
This is one of the most relevant mistake a professional trader could do. And today I made it. All day long.
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  • #3,208
  • Feb 9, 2017 10:19am Feb 9, 2017 10:19am
Now, when we are less than 15 min before the speach, note that we do not have acceptation below yes pit low at 25065. We have again a new poor low, a cluster made tonight by Tokyo at round 2500 and the GB poor low at 2479, but we have not acceptation nor below yesterday pit low, nor below overnight low.

All this action occurred starting from a very weak reference at 25645 and continued from the previous half back at 2540. So current price location is structurally extremely risk. At the same time we are in a one timeframing lower mode. So we are plenty of conflicting information. The ruling reason could be the extreme weakness left above and the double pit pass gap at 25955-2613. But if we will see acceptation below yes pit low, continuation downside is not impossible. Let's see and be ready to react.
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  • #3,209
  • Feb 9, 2017 10:24am Feb 9, 2017 10:24am
Note H inside G.
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  • #3,210
  • Feb 9, 2017 11:07am Feb 9, 2017 11:07am
Quoting Lock
Now, when we are less than 15 min before the speach, note that we do not have acceptation below yes pit low at 25065. We have again a new poor low, a cluster made tonight by Tokyo at round 2500 and the GB poor low at 2479, but we have not acceptation nor below yesterday pit low, nor below overnight low. All this action occurred starting from a very weak reference at 25645 and continued from the previous half back at 2540. So current price location is structurally extremely risk. At the same time...
Taken out. Watch out if you'll not see acceptation below it and below yes pit low 25065.
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  • #3,211
  • Feb 9, 2017 12:06pm Feb 9, 2017 12:06pm
This liquidation is exceptionally weak: carry this information forward for tomorrow or tonight if you'll not see a correction during last periods of this pit session. It is aiming at the lower composite poc 2479 that is also the yesterday GB poor low cluster. I do not know if it could reach it now but I know this location is very risky. I'm off anyway. Have a nice continuation. Best L.
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  • #3,212
  • Feb 9, 2017 10:37pm Feb 9, 2017 10:37pm
Quoting Lock
This liquidation is exceptionally weak: carry this information forward for tomorrow or tonight if you'll not see a correction during last periods of this pit session. It is aiming at the lower composite poc 2479 that is also the yesterday GB poor low cluster. I do not know if it could reach it now but I know this location is very risky. I'm off anyway. Have a nice continuation. Best L.
Almost 40% of the weak pit action downside has been retraced during Tokyo session.
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  • #3,213
  • Edited 11:05pm Feb 9, 2017 10:50pm | Edited 11:05pm
17/02/10 FRIDAY 07:50+1GMT
EARLY MORNING REPORT

The situation remained as it was yesterday: monthly, weekly and daily balance, no direction, no participation, no volume. We are still experiencing the consequence of the short covering made during Tuesday: adjustment of inventories producing balance environment.

The most notable thing occurred during pit session when A period, just after open, tagged a previous pit poor high at 25645 and start a very slow and weak liquidation that lasted all the session untill its close time. During this run it left a weak D period high at initial half back (2540) and an afternoon rally high at 2529 (G period high) that will be our most important reference for upcoming pit session. But note that pit US left also a poor low at 24905 and that this poor low has been tagged tonight by a Sydney poor low and by Tokyo low: so this level is particularly weak. Now, because we have two very weak references at the opposite sides of yesterday pit session, we could imagine a sequence that could eventually be able to solve both of them.
Only a new gap above or below yesterday range could be able to skip one of these references, above or below.

Because of the huge indecision of this market the main references for all sessions will be the major composite pocs at 2417, 2479 and 2571.

Other important references could be 2428, 24437, 25122, 2548: we told about them for weeks so I'll not repeat here where they come from.

Finally, because of the current indecision and the lack of participation of bigger tmeframes I suggest to consider the daytime frame behaviour with attention: you'll probably see day time frame participants involved in this market all day long.

About upcoming GB session consider current price location: we are at the base of yesterday range. We could have a gap downside opening below yesterday low (25105) or we could open inside yesterday range. In both cases we will have to evaluate acceptation or rejection of yesterday GB range. If rejection we could aim at the lower double pass GB gap (2435-2449) while if we will have acceptation inside it we could aim at the top of it at 25815.
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  • #3,214
  • Feb 10, 2017 4:29am Feb 10, 2017 4:29am
so much for uk data, the structure wasn't there to support higher value. it opened, closed the gap upside from yesterday and was looking at the gap downside from 3.02 it's has taken most of it out just left a bit as I write remaining at 24400-24355 and left a PL
  • #3,215
  • Feb 12, 2017 11:50pm Feb 12, 2017 11:50pm
17/02/13 MONDAY 08:50+1GMT
EARLY MORNING REPORT

We still are in a monthly, weekly and daily balance. Huge uncertainty, no participation of bigger timeframes at all, no volume.

Friday pit session simply covered overnight inventories from Thursday pit unch. Friday GB made also a "look like" spike downside but closed at the top of it. Anyway the base of that spike is at 2464. And it is a relevant day timeframe reference for upcoming GB session. It will be important to see where GB will open: above or below this ref. If above we could consider this late attempt downside (the spike) as failed*, if below we could still have some possibilities to continue to test downside. *This does not mean we cannot make an other test downside, but it means that at least initially market rejected the Friday GB attempt.
An other important factor for upcoming GB session will be the opening position in relation with GB Friday range (2441-25195): for now we are inside it. A possible gap could change the environment.

We still have a GB double pass gap at 2435-2441: it could attract price.

Price is still rotating around the major composite poc at 2479: and this could be an other important reference for today consideraing the lack of participation.

Other important references (the same as Friday) are the composite pocs at 2417 and 2571 and the short term references at 2428, 24437, 25122, 2548: we spoke too much about them to repeat here again.
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  • #3,216
  • Feb 13, 2017 12:07am Feb 13, 2017 12:07am
We are at Friday GB high and we opened above Friday GB spike base: acceptation above Friday GB high could lead to a new test of 2673. Rejection could lead to a retracement back to composite poc at 2479 and, eventually, to a correctoin of the GB double pass gap at 2435-2441.
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  • #3,217
  • Feb 13, 2017 1:00am Feb 13, 2017 1:00am
B inside A: Go with any break and monitor for continuation. If it will fail in one direction, natural direction opposite side of balance.
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  • #3,218
  • Feb 13, 2017 6:25am Feb 13, 2017 6:25am
Very weak GB session. We expected something weak for the lack of participation but this was very impressive.
Now we have 2 pit poor highs in a row (2508-25645) and a preUS poor high (2525) left above. And it looks like we are going to open inside Friday pit range. We are also very close to the composite poc at 2479.

Downside instead we got a cluster of lows around 2441. And the Tokyo poor low at 2480.

Friday pit pull back low test is at 2466. If we will have acceptation above it we could aim at something upside. Acceptation below it could substantially change the situation. Anyway the first step for a possible continuation downside is to have acceptation below Friday unch at 24853. If not there are few possibilities to continue lower. And a lot to have a new correction upside.

We are also at the top of the daily bracket in USDX: a rejection there or an acceptation above it could highly influence cable. Monitor it.
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  • #3,219
  • Feb 13, 2017 7:23am Feb 13, 2017 7:23am
Above we also have the new GB poor high at 25393. So we have 4 poor highs in a row right now.
Current pit is also a new poor low: so current environment is extrordinary weak.
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  • #3,220
  • Feb 13, 2017 7:58am Feb 13, 2017 7:58am
Quoting Lock
.... Anyway the first step for a possible continuation downside is to have acceptation below Friday unch at 24853. If not there are few possibilities to continue lower. And a lot to have a new correction upside. We are also at the top of the daily bracket in USDX: a rejection there or an acceptation above it could highly influence cable. Monitor it.
First attempt below Friday pit unch failed. It was a good spot for a daytimeframe position. But now we need acceleration above the old poor pit highs. If not, consider that current low is very weak as it is a tag of Tokyo poor low.
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