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"Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade." Summary 37 replies

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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #25,001
  • Feb 8, 2017 10:18am Feb 8, 2017 10:18am
Quoting evocpr19
{quote} Profit is profit. The thing with let it run or take profit is not easy, I fight with myself on this. I currently tend to close a trade earlier when I am in the region of my daily target. I can better life with this than being in profit +XX and then end up with BE or even negative. On the other hand, it often kills longer runs.
true, there will be a discussion as to where to close, how long to let the trade run etc etc. in the end it boils down to the fact that u either are profitable or not. i've convinced myself that if market goes against me for more than 25 pips, then i'm not reading it properly. so, if it is coming near my entry, i close it, preferably at BE and then reassess. at the same time, if market is 20+ pips in my favor, what's the point of risking by keeping your stop away from BE? if it is a BE trade, then so be it. u know. next as Damian puts it. the point is that u need those trades when market really goes straight into your target. the set of rules is more for a defense play, so that u filter out bad trades. at least that's what i think.
  • #25,002
  • Feb 8, 2017 10:51am Feb 8, 2017 10:51am
Quoting Mr. Pip
{quote} Manage your trade based on the order flow you are trading. It is fine to use the shorter term to address strength and weakness but look to the left to see where the opposing force should defend. Protect there. I may have misunderstood your post. The 161 of what? Seems like the short term or immediate order flow. If this is the case you are not giving your trades the room to work and may explain some of the BE you have been getting. Hold price accountable to the order flow you are trading.
Longer term expectation was a NSH. Hence, I was trading against. I was looking for a 1:1 (and in my head for more) down. I entered too late and did not want to see a strong rebounce on the demand area which would eat my profit.
When I was in the 161 Fib area (of previous swing), I let less room. The vertical yellow box shows the trade and the automatic line also.

Honestly, I do not know what is wrong with that (except my late entry).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: allx.jpg Size: 199 KB
  • #25,003
  • Feb 8, 2017 11:27am Feb 8, 2017 11:27am
Quoting Mr. Pip
{quote} Wow, I really love when we get such an honor. We are truly blessed to have had the opportunity to read such a profound statement. Every now and then we get these Extra Terrestrials come through and make extreme and outrageously ignorant comments. My goal is not to attack or insult you but you came into my house to do nothing more than to undermined my efforts and to discredit the work that has taken me so long to put together. I noticed you are new here to FF and have posted a few times on other threads with similar statements. You are either...
Great answer and video Mr. Pip
I just want to stress out that it is just impossible for the market to be random simply because price is just the outcome of decisions made by people. This cause and effect relationship cannot be random as any other cause/effect relationship that exists in nature.
Please keep sharing your priceless knowledge to all of us!
  • #25,004
  • Feb 8, 2017 12:23pm Feb 8, 2017 12:23pm
Quoting evocpr19
{quote} Profit is profit. The thing with let it run or take profit is not easy, I fight with myself on this. I currently tend to close a trade earlier when I am in the region of my daily target. I can better life with this than being in profit +XX and then end up with BE or even negative. On the other hand, it often kills longer runs.
Like we are rules base on our entries, likewise we need to be with the trade management. Your account will thank you in the long run. Be as mechanical as possible to keep the emotions away from the process.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #25,005
  • Feb 8, 2017 12:30pm Feb 8, 2017 12:30pm
Quoting evocpr19
{quote} Longer term expectation was a NSH. Hence, I was trading against. I was looking for a 1:1 (and in my head for more) down. I entered too late and did not want to see a strong rebounce on the demand area which would eat my profit. When I was in the 161 Fib area (of previous swing), I let less room. The vertical yellow box shows the trade and the automatic line also. Honestly, I do not know what is wrong with that (except my late entry). {image}
I understand your position better now and why you did what you did. I would only say that if you were against the expectation trading into an area that was consistently trying to find support, I would have never entered. This lowers the probabilities farther and really cuts deeply into the RR of the trade and leaving you even less room to protect. Keep in mind context. Not horrible but I like to ask myself is worth taking on the risk?
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #25,006
  • Feb 8, 2017 12:40pm Feb 8, 2017 12:40pm
Quoting ujku80
{quote} true, there will be a discussion as to where to close, how long to let the trade run etc etc. in the end it boils down to the fact that u either are profitable or not. i've convinced myself that if market goes against me for more than 25 pips, then i'm not reading it properly. so, if it is coming near my entry, i close it, preferably at BE and then reassess. at the same time, if market is 20+ pips in my favor, what's the point of risking by keeping your stop away from BE? if it is a BE trade, then so be it. u know. next as Damian puts it....
Hey man I wouldn't say that if the market goes against me a set number of points then I am wrong. Swings are dynamic in point value and so is your entry so every trade will have a different point value as to whether you are wrong or not. There is a clear difference between the timing of your entry and being wrong on your analysis and that is where you need to place your stop. Sometimes we know we are entering early and we assume the risk because we might not get the correction we expect and at other time we think our timing is perfect and the market continues to move against us. This goes back to timing your entry now if price closes above or below your main swing now you are wrong and that could be 10, 15, 25 or 40 points whatever the situation dictates.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #25,007
  • Feb 8, 2017 1:03pm Feb 8, 2017 1:03pm
Quoting Forthebulls
{quote} Perfect in my opinion. So many conspiracy theory traders these days, people who scream "Institution!" when they haven't a clue. Just recycling the same unjustifiable rhetoric to justify why they can't win a trade. I recall seeing Steve Pratt, or whatever his name was, make similar unsubstantiated claims with zero proof earlier in the thread. Sometimes the better question is: do you even justify that level of ignorance with a response?
I know I was just going to blow it off with a but then I thought for the benefit of the newbies that I would not want them to be influenced by a comment that made no sense and that every soul is worth saving. If this guy is broken down as I know this business can easily do to people then if I show him maybe we can still save him and maybe it was just a huge waste of time. I like to give everyone the benefit of doubt.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #25,008
  • Feb 8, 2017 1:05pm Feb 8, 2017 1:05pm
Quoting ujku80
{quote} oh yeah. i'm ok with it. it wasn't one of those trades worth risking more. as for your response yesterday, u gave a very detailed answer illustrating it with a video which, i think just for the time used he should have been polite enough to say thank you, at least. but anyway. results are here, and anyone can watch and judge for themselves whether this strategy, or style is profitable or not. More than that, I don't know what else to expect. incidentally, just for the record, i finished January at 14% profit. but, like i said before, there...
Awesome! So true.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #25,009
  • Feb 8, 2017 1:07pm Feb 8, 2017 1:07pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} No it was perfect response.
Thank you nice to see you weigh in.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #25,010
  • Feb 8, 2017 1:17pm Feb 8, 2017 1:17pm
Quoting x3m-PippiN
{quote} Yes, I just have to write it down in the rules. I traded for a very long time without a plan. And I always blamed myself for taking a certain decision in the trading arena. But after I sat down one day and made a nice simple to follow (for me) trade plan and started executing it I've found my peaceful place in my mind. Many times like today I know that I shouldn't hurry and put the stop at BE but I just want to stay disciplined with my plan and stick to it. I recommend that every one writes a plan. It doesn't have to be as long and detailed...
Your report is already your journal I just revisit my trading session when I am not pleased with my performance and see what I did wrong or how I could have been more efficient. I understand some people saying that a trade journal is an excellent tool to help you improve but if you are looking at a bunch of recorded numbers without any chart image and specific notes on that particular trade after a couple of weeks you will have no memory of the trade or what happened. So is there really any value?

The only possible real value is if you create a journal thread in FF and record each trade with an image and clear notes. This is very tasking when you should be focusing on trading. I humbly thing journals are overrated. In reviewing my session I can see where I screwed up and I can make those adjustments if needed.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #25,011
  • Feb 8, 2017 1:26pm Feb 8, 2017 1:26pm
Quoting Rachid34
Dear Damian/fellow traders, I am trading the USDJPY 15m as i experienced this pair was for me the most profitable (EURUSD unfortunately didn't work for me, bad experience or its just psychological) Please have a look at mi chart. 1.First as i tried to recognize the Supply/Demand area 2.I recognized the NSH/NSL and HL/LH 3.I waited for the 61.8 fib 4.I entered at the bleu arrows For me it's a little bit difficult to follow this great tread constantly because of my busy life(full time job and family responsibility's). Last week i had 8 winners...
Nice work your first trade was late it looks like to chased after price or got you your computer late. That is not a huge problem as long as your RR is still better then a 1:1. The second entry is fine just an expensive rotation. Overall I like what I see and strive to improve the timing of your entries and do not chase after price. If you are late you are late. If the RR still justifies the late or expensive entry go ahead and take it.

I hope this answer helps.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #25,012
  • Feb 8, 2017 1:28pm Feb 8, 2017 1:28pm
Quoting evocpr19
{quote} Thank you for highlighting the trading session and to point out the key levels and trade opportunities and the confluences. It looks always really easy when you talk about, but when I have to take a decision in realtime it is not always easy for me. Moreover, I have the impression that my emulated CFD chart has much more noise in it.
I will focus more on this in the live stream and in future videos. I agree that it can be difficult to see this in real time.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #25,013
  • Feb 8, 2017 1:31pm Feb 8, 2017 1:31pm
Quoting ujku80
{quote} i liked your comment very much. Although from my experience i can tell that there is none so deaf than those who do not want to hear. But it's a very valuable comment to me, and other followers of yours nevertheless. Btw, yesterday before I left home to send my girls to the dance school (as i said), noticing the strength of bears which resulted with that great winning trade that you took, i placed a limit sell at about 50% of that swing right where there was a great level, and went without much stress about the trade because I know that...
You are very welcome Arjan, I have really enjoyed your progress. Sometimes these trades come out of the screen and slap you screaming take me.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #25,014
  • Feb 8, 2017 1:41pm Feb 8, 2017 1:41pm
Quoting Mr. Pip
I hope the response yesterday was not too much and I welcome all opinions and discussions so I hope it does not discourage posts that differ in opinions. The difference is the intent and manner in which it is done. I don't have all the answers and I'm here to learn too but that was not the intent. He was throwing rocks at my window and ran away. That was not cool. Let me know if I was too strong or out of line. I'm human too.
It was well spoken. The last thread I've been on had a guy like that. It really caused allot of confusion. Better to deal with it early before it's too late.
Play the hand you were dealt.
  • #25,015
  • Feb 8, 2017 1:46pm Feb 8, 2017 1:46pm
Quoting Hazza88
Hi damian, your post and video yesterday in response to the new poster was a great reminder to me so thanks for that. If you have time i'd like your opinion on a trade ive taken this morning that i lost on, as you can see in the chart below price had made a nsl and was struggling to climb and that horizontal line is the low of yesterday, so i waited for 2 painstakingly slow hours for it to reach that level and took a trade after the rotation candle. I know the recent nsl was a weak one but the trade offered decent RR even at just the test of structure....
It looks like you were trading the longer term order flow and The is fine my issue with your entry is that the short term was strengthening against you. Always remember to use the short term order flow to your advantage. It has to support your case for entry. In this case it was not. I'm not sure if I would have taken the entry or not to be honest but I do understand and like the area you took the entry.

Nice recovery on the following trade!
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #25,016
  • Feb 8, 2017 2:26pm Feb 8, 2017 2:26pm
Quoting crixus
{quote} Here is how i try to use Fib tool. To measure harmonic moves and find level of exhaustion along with order flow... This is the ES - 3min TF (e-mini S&P 500) along with other flow or volume behind the bar: ES_20170206a.png;2175250 ES_20170206b.png;2175253 ES_20170206c.png;2175254 {image} {image} {image}
That 382 check is always a good 'first look' when order flow changes for the reversal.
  • #25,017
  • Feb 8, 2017 3:48pm Feb 8, 2017 3:48pm
Quoting jmezz
{quote} That 382 check is always a good 'first look' when order flow changes for the reversal.
Who do you think made me aware of this? That's so simple yet so effective after a huge move in one direction. Hey btw, have you decided to take a break? I like reading about your take on price action.
  • #25,018
  • Feb 8, 2017 4:22pm Feb 8, 2017 4:22pm
Quoting Forthebulls
Hello Mr Pip. Another lurker popping out of the woodwork. Would like to thank you for all you have done... truly amazing that you have been able to empower so many traders in so little time! I can now see the markets with clarity and precision thanks to your concepts around structure and order flow. Two years ago that was just a dream and I was stacking loss upon loss, but now the losers are few and far between! You rock Damian! {quote} Hi Hazza, Appears you took a short immediately after a short term NSH. The longer term and shorter term order...
Thank you for your kind words!
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #25,019
  • Feb 8, 2017 6:31pm Feb 8, 2017 6:31pm
Something funny happened today.

Since I'm at work now, I trade using my phone - MT4, but I use PC for online charts.

So I have one open trade from last night.

And I take a look at the online charts - WOW 50 pips! And price seems to be reversing...I immediately close trade on my phone.

Feeling great!

Then I scrutinize my profit... only 50 cents? (0.01 lot = 5 pips)

Turned out the online chart's weren't updated. (I am connected to the company's server, but I haven't validate my account for internet access yet)
  • #25,020
  • Edited 11:32pm Feb 8, 2017 7:10pm | Edited 11:32pm
Currency: EURUSD
Potential Entry: Short at 62% - 79% Fib

Expectation: NSL (Follow expectations)
Projection: Weak
Momentum: Weak
Depth: Should be deep.

Bar by bar: Equivalent strength. Risky to short at 38%-50% level. Risky to go long as well against expectations.

Structure: Good structure at 24%-38% and 62% - 79%.

Final Condition for entry:
- as long as the momentum of the corrective upswing is not too strong, and the bar by bar of the upswing is not too strong.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 5M.JPG Size: 86 KB


Outcome: went for lunch and could not take profit at the best possible area. It's ok. Next!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 3.JPG Size: 57 KB



Damian, if you read this, what should I expect next? Better to wait and see?
1) The bar by bar shows equal strength in bears v bulls.
2) The peaks are getting lower! - thus less strength in bulls.
3) Even as NSL are made, those have really weak projections. The trough have been tried 3 times! - thus bears are not that strong as well.

Everytime when this bulls = bears scenario, would the best thing be to stay on sidelines or, alternatively, follow the expectations for better winning probability?

Never mind. I got the answer already. Price follows the path of least resistance.
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