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The Really Useless Thread

  • #147,541
  • Edited Feb 8, 2017 12:26am Feb 7, 2017 11:44pm | Edited Feb 8, 2017 12:26am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} L sterling for a s/o or a shitload, entry was hit earlier. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...79#post9515179
So you raised your entry a bit? My broker's lowest bid is 1.23470 and ask about a pip higher. Well done, going great atm.! May I ask how wide was your stop? I've noticed that at times you use extremely small stops. And this time you really hit spot on, as many times before I assume.
  • #147,542
  • Feb 8, 2017 7:06am Feb 8, 2017 7:06am
Uneventful European session with all markets behaving. US equites look rather eager to finish this current leg ASAP as the sky is getting cloudy with far too much noise from everywhere to continue in a slow bumpy move up ...

On the FX board nothing new with Euro struggling a lot at these levels but GOLD is still the one leading the board. The leg is getting too crowded already for my taste I would rather it fly rather quickly above 1250 to leave just dust behind instead of entering in a sluggish ride...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,543
  • Feb 8, 2017 9:16am Feb 8, 2017 9:16am
Very gossipy opening range in NY.... take it with more than a pinch of salt but strong rumours of major Trump 'tweet'/(the new White house official Channel) coming in the next few hours regarding Dollar with lots of noise that will be directed towards China and etc ....Watch-out for Gold rocketing to the moon if confirmed and Euro and everything else in the FX board to follow though

Heads up, just in case as markets are becoming very very jittery now on the lack of clarity in both the fiscal plan and the dollar comments side...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,544
  • Feb 8, 2017 10:42am Feb 8, 2017 10:42am
So got new buyers in eu .... Let's C whether we roll or stay at the same range ....
Not much levels but a daily close below 1.068x is expected

Nothing much to see everything done ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #147,545
  • Feb 8, 2017 11:02am Feb 8, 2017 11:02am
Quoting primejarvis
So got new buyers in eu .... Let's C whether we roll or stay at the same range .... Not much levels but a daily close below 1.068x is expected Nothing much to see everything done ...
its fairly annoying enviroment to be trading E/U with these short political risk-on/off episodes. pretty much turned E/U into untradable instrument for swing traders this year.
  • #147,546
  • Feb 8, 2017 11:06am Feb 8, 2017 11:06am
Quoting chester123
{quote} its fairly annoying enviroment to be trading E/U with these short political risk-on/off episodes. pretty much turned E/U into untradable instrument for swing traders this year.
This time I don't agree to you .... For me we have resumed the last midterm leg in eu ... Just for one min keep aside all this BS from politics ... And see the chart .... You will get the answer ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #147,547
  • Feb 8, 2017 11:12am Feb 8, 2017 11:12am
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} This time I don't agree to you .... For me we have resumed the last midterm leg in eu ... Just for one min keep aside all this BS from politics ... And see the chart .... You will get the answer ...
I know I agree on the direction and Im loaded and locked for a very small loss eventually as the chart I posted before indicates. But I was more just lammenting about the psychological side of the January price action. But of course the trend is gonna previal if the macro plays out as expected. We will see. In any case I would not be suprised if E/U runs above the ST extreme on risk-off. hopefully, the call of trump to security advisor about dollar is a hoax cuz that would just support my opinion that that man is totally lost. wild political times ahead
  • #147,548
  • Feb 8, 2017 11:13am Feb 8, 2017 11:13am
Europe going home with a rather uneventful session in the FX board with only key highlight in OIL triggering major early imminent break up alerts for the mid term for 62.2x with ext the crazy 72.3x (this is still locked both FA and TAwise). Oil just need a small push from its friends in the White House (and it has plenty of them now). The current highs look extremely feeble and above the $54.xx its just plenty of air....

Trump stimulus to the sector with Europe recovering and international conflict (Oil's best friend) looks 'al dente' and without surprises we will have them in the menu rather soon.

Actively looking for positions ....

sisse

Quoting primejarvis
So got new buyers in eu .... Let's C whether we roll or stay at the same range .... Not much levels but a daily close below 1.068x is expected Nothing much to see everything done ...
Not sure about that ...its the capitulation move on risk on the making not the other way around but as long as 1.084x is still open on the top, the bumpy wide intraday noise of the last few weeks will continue.

The upcoming mid term leg is going to be very very sharp and furious despite the side. Pretty much guarantee.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,549
  • Feb 8, 2017 11:20am Feb 8, 2017 11:20am
Quoting chester123
{quote} I know I agree on the direction and Im loaded and locked for a very small loss eventually as the chart I posted before indicates. But I was more just lammenting about the psychological side of the January price action. But of course the trend is gonna previal if the macro plays out as expected. We will see. In any case I would not be suprised if E/U runs above the ST extreme on risk-off. hopefully, the call of trump to security advisor about dollar is a hoax cuz that would just support my opinion that that man is totally lost. wild...
After following sisse and you guys for such a long time I can assure you one thing is that without ta ... Fa is useless and without fa ..Ta is useless ... Both correlates to each other in such a fine way .... whenever such political BS comes into play traders like us start shifting ... But the point is it never go against the FA level ... And ta wise it will align in such a way that traders starts scratching their head..
Re-Incarnated
  • #147,550
  • Feb 8, 2017 11:21am Feb 8, 2017 11:21am
Quoting sisse
Europe going home with a rather uneventful session in the FX board with only key highlight in OIL triggering major early imminent break up alerts for the mid term for 62.2x with ext the crazy 72.3x (this is still locked both FA and TAwise). Oil just need a small push from its friends in the White House (and it has plenty of them now). The current highs look extremely feeble and above the $54.xx its just plenty of air.... Trump stimulus to the sector with Europe recovering and international conflict (Oil's best friend) looks 'al dente' and without...
sisse, about the capitulation you mean its a possible capitulation via risk from europe politics/elections? Or just a capitulation move after the minute the risk-off fades via trump fiscal stimulous = i.e. via a last short term risk-on window for forseeable future?
  • #147,551
  • Feb 8, 2017 11:23am Feb 8, 2017 11:23am
Sisse
Do you really see that 1.084x level is open ... I don't think so ... Ta wise nahhh... Fa wise I really don't know
Just a view ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #147,552
  • Feb 8, 2017 11:25am Feb 8, 2017 11:25am
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} After following sisse and you guys for such a long time I can assure you one thing is that without ta ... Fa is useless and without fa ..Ta is useless ... Both correlates to each other in such a fine way .... whenever such political BS comes into play traders like us start shifting ... But the point is it never go against the FA level ... And ta wise it will align in such a way that traders starts scratching their head..
But noone doubts that FA cannot go without TA and vice versa. But in potentional risk-off enviroment I would be very cautious. Just look at 2015/16 china crises spikes in E/U via carry trade. that can be super wild beyond that mid term range and its extremes. but of course It also proves that fundamental lvls hold and the risk-off spikes fades unless it causes some FA shifts
  • #147,553
  • Feb 8, 2017 11:42am Feb 8, 2017 11:42am
Quoting chester123
{quote} But noone doubts that FA cannot go without TA and vice versa. But in potentional risk-off enviroment I would be very cautious. Just look at 2015/16 china crises spikes in E/U via carry trade. that can be super wild beyond that mid term range and its extremes. but of course It also proves that fundamental lvls hold and the risk-off spikes fades unless it causes some FA shifts
I think you are talking about the aug 2015 spike in eu ... But if you surgically check TA wise without using fibo or any indicators I think it will give you a very sound answer
Re-Incarnated
  • #147,554
  • Edited 11:53am Feb 8, 2017 11:42am | Edited 11:53am
Quoting chester123
{quote} sisse, about the capitulation you mean its a possible capitulation via risk from europe politics/elections? Or just a capitulation move after the minute the risk-off fades via trump fiscal stimulous = i.e. via a last short term risk-on window for forseeable future?
To be honest not sure yet and the implications will be very important not in the short term but for later in the year.

In order of my odds scenarios as for today:

-> Markets expectations are heavily aligned to receive the main dish from Trump with some major announcement on the fiscal front (its irrelevant if its going to pass or the details in the short term) that include a huge boost for you know who in terms of taxes, subsides, protectionism and no regulation and etc. It will be a major populist blow out but something in those lines beyond from what we already know ....

Meaning related to FX ...basically Trump giving Dollar the OK to fly to the moon in the very short [only] term while the money blow out party and feast take place....Ride the pig in commodities and keep squeezing the highs in Equities.

-> A major faux pax from Trump on the currency front. This scenario is the one currently hitting the gossip chain which is US officially declaring China a currency manipulator and openly declaring trade, currency (and scarily and hopefully not, real major conflict)

That will trigger a major RISK OFF worldwide with a major and very sharp short term run to Dollar and to Treasuries on panic but it will mark the end of the current leg in US Equities.

--> Finally which is the least probable scenario for now but it will start getting track very fast we get closer to Dutch and French election is via European risk with the permanent fuel now from Brexit (will stay with this for a loooong time).

This will trigger the RISK OFF via Euro rather than Dollar. Making the sharp reaction felt primarily in European currencies and obviously benefiting the Dollar as collateral but with little impact in Equities and Commodities in the short term.

Whatever the case, the only thing in common in all 3 is that GOLD will be on the bid if any of those got trigger.

On the macro front there is very little to see for a while. ECB and FED are crystal clear. Numbers in both are clear, Expectations are clear ....basically only populism, risk and the mental instability [or incompetence from some others] are in play now.

Very strange times ...we haven't seen something like this (political risk via the major countries) in the Develop world since I remember trading ....

Let see...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,555
  • Feb 8, 2017 12:27pm Feb 8, 2017 12:27pm
Going for nap guys ... Locked and loaded with all tp, SL set ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #147,556
  • Feb 8, 2017 12:32pm Feb 8, 2017 12:32pm
sisse,

I am one of those that had an acct w FXCM and now will be switched to GAIN. How much longer until this one goes. Sigh....

My questions is that I thought when RISK IS ON that money heads to DOLLAR and when RISK is OFF it goes to Equities. Is there another variable I am not understanding? I would think RISK OFF would support EU and not Dollar.

"That will trigger a major RISK OFF worldwide with a major and very sharp short term run to Dollar and to Treasuries on panic but it will mark the end of the current leg in US Equities"-sisse

I am still looking for .084X before I position again. I may miss the move but tough trading environment for me to understand from political, FA and TA side.

I appreciate the good posts here as I am uneducated to r ally share what some of you can grasp from a FA point of view.
  • #147,557
  • Feb 8, 2017 12:36pm Feb 8, 2017 12:36pm
Quoting IMARICH1
sisse, I am one of those that had an acct w FXCM and now will be switched to GAIN. How much longer until this one goes. Sigh.... My questions is that I thought when RISK IS ON that money heads to DOLLAR and when RISK is OFF it goes to Equities. Is there another variable I am not understanding? I would think RISK OFF would support EU and not Dollar. I am still looking for .084X before I position again. I may miss the move but tough trading environment for me to understand from political, FA and TA side. I appreciate the good posts here as I am uneducated...
this is what keeping E/U up on risk-off

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/...carrytrade.asp

P.S.: thanks sisse for your complex view. we on the same page
  • #147,558
  • Feb 8, 2017 12:56pm Feb 8, 2017 12:56pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} this is what keeping E/U up on risk-off http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/...carrytrade.asp P.S.: thanks sisse for your complex view. we on the same page
NP....nice to have a decent conversation.

Euro looks extremely soft the last 2 days we are going to lose the handle rather quickly. Still have a strong feeling that we are going get a WTF moment there very soon and will be very sharp.

Problem around these levels is that is extremely difficult to sneak in or out on a low volatility sessions in calm waters as there are major mid and long term levels in play with all and the biggest sharks in the board tracking the moves.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,559
  • Feb 8, 2017 2:17pm Feb 8, 2017 2:17pm
chester123,

Thanks fro sharing the info. I understand some on the carry-trade but it does get confusing. I read that article which made more sense. However, it is still rather difficult to absorb this within our political situation at the present. Not to mention BOE and FED.

Perhaps, .083x will be the HIGH of the Short Term Leg and MID will make a sharp run as sisse has indicated. I appreciate your map you posted as your FLIP is right around where I was looking as well now.
  • #147,560
  • Feb 8, 2017 3:24pm Feb 8, 2017 3:24pm
Quoting sisse
...and we are rolling ....2nd time in the last 35 trading days we got a bearish close
Just out of interest was the other bearish close 26 January?

Reason being price tried to break 1.0750 for four consecutive days, failed and closed below 1.07 on 26 Jan.
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