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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #3,161
  • Feb 7, 2017 10:56am Feb 7, 2017 10:56am
2498 is yes Tokyo poor high: an other possible victim
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  • #3,162
  • Feb 7, 2017 11:00am Feb 7, 2017 11:00am
For any meaninfull continuation upside in this short covering we must obtain acceptation above yes pit high at 2480. (not 81 edit) If not, the composite poc attraction could prevale.
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  • #3,163
  • Feb 7, 2017 11:05am Feb 7, 2017 11:05am
A fast recap: D period is very elongated and its low is exactly at yesterday pit low 2427. E period low is exactly at yesterday pit unch 24645, current F low is exactly at yesterday pit high 2480... And finally E high is 1 single pip shy of yes Tokyo poor high at 2498. So, who do you think is ruling this market? Who do use such exact references to trade?
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  • #3,164
  • Feb 7, 2017 11:14am Feb 7, 2017 11:14am
Quoting Lock
2498 is yes Tokyo poor high: an other possible victim
Taken out. Now F high weak at round 2500. Carry this info forward.
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  • #3,165
  • Feb 7, 2017 11:32am Feb 7, 2017 11:32am
Quoting Lock
I suggest also to monitor USDX that is in a quite similar situation: new gap upside and new double pit pass gap. USDX could influence cable and vice-versa.
USDX filled the new pit gap upside and also the double pass gap. As cable already did in the opposite direction.
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  • #3,166
  • Feb 7, 2017 12:16pm Feb 7, 2017 12:16pm
Quoting Lock
Very elongated C and D but if we get acceptation inside yes pit range we could have a massacre above even so. (a fire cracker effect caused by the nearness of the weak references above)
as you see..

Quoting Lock
E last period of London, so GB poor high at 25375 could be involved in the possible massacre.
taken out too.
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  • #3,167
  • Feb 7, 2017 12:23pm Feb 7, 2017 12:23pm
Quoting Lock
17/02/07 TUESDAY 08:08+1GMT EARLY MORNING REPORT ...What daily chart does not reveal is how this market is going downside in a short term action: it did it leaving behind a substantial amount of weaknesses like 3 poor highs in a row for pit session (yesterday at 24603, Friday at 25213 and Thursday at 25645),...
All but the last pit poor high at 25645 have been taken out. Also the GB double pass has been interested at least partially by current action. I'm off for today. Have a nice continuation. Best L.

PS: if you are interested re-read all the posts form the early morning one: today has been a textbook so it could be usefull to repeat all the passages that lead to current price situation.
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  • #3,168
  • Feb 8, 2017 1:05am Feb 8, 2017 1:05am
17/02/08 WEDNESDAY 08:05+1GMT
EARLY MORNING REPORT

Price is still in a monthly and weekly balance and now even daily balance. Current week tested below the last 2 overlapping week and, for now, it failed. Natural direction after a failure below a balance is the opposite side of it: than on the weekly bases the direction is the top of last week at 27057. But this directional target include, as you may see, also a new test above the November 2016 inside month high (breakeven) at 2673.

On the daily bases we can se a bracket of 12 days plus current one: yesterday tested once below the bracket low 23685 (or 24117, depending upon if you consider 31.01 low as the low of the bracket instead of 23.01 low) and failed, leaving also a substantial daily excess, at least for now.

But again, what the 2 dimensional charts didn't say is how this market performed all this action. For instance, if you take a look at yesterday GB session and preUS one you will notice a very very weak bottom zone made by a GB cluster poor low at 2346 (one of the 2 most important references we underlined yesterday) and a preUS poor low right above it at 23505. Then all the pit covering upside left a substantial amount of weaknesses like 2 major minus development (single pips on m30 chart) at 2395-2427 and 24295-24645 plus at least 3 exact references tag at 2427 (D period tag of the previous session low), 24654 period E tag of the previous session unchanged level and finally F period low at the previous session high. Furthermore the session profile has a perfect "p" shaped profile, confirming the fact that what we saw was probably mainly a short covering rally more than more serious new money buying at the bottom of our bracket.

Now, having said that, it is possible to continue a weak covering very emotional action but it is also possible to retrace it. Above we still have a poor high at 25645 so it could be targeted too, but the weaknesses left downside are currently pretty impressive.

Note that current price action (Tokyo session) is occurring around our nearest major composite poc at 2479: this could be a very important pole of attraction for today because after such a confusing action the fairest place at which business has been conducted before could attract price in a so uncertain situation.

GB could open with a new gap higher, if so and if this new possible gap higher will not be retraced quickly we could experience continuation upside in order to take out the double pass GB gap at 25375-25565 and eventually reach the upper major composite poc at 2572. If instead this new possible/probable GB gap upside will be quickly retraced, the very week GB poor low cluster at 2346 could be easily targeted.

Anyway for all the upcoming sessions a balance environment is not escluded considering the proximity of the major composite poc at 2479 and the huge volatility experienced yesterday that could have caused a lot of contrasting inventories imbalances among the different market participants.
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  • #3,169
  • Feb 8, 2017 1:57am Feb 8, 2017 1:57am
If it will open around here as probable, yesterday gap lower will become a double pass (2435-2449) and we will have a new GB gap higher.
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  • #3,170
  • Feb 8, 2017 2:00am Feb 8, 2017 2:00am
GB open above its yesterday close at 24845. Let's see if we will find acceptation above or below it. If above we can continue higher, if below a correction downside is possible. (if the new gap will also be filled quickly)
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  • #3,171
  • Feb 8, 2017 2:29am Feb 8, 2017 2:29am
Remember the double distribution profile of 03.02 GB session: the top of the lower distribution is our main ref above at 2505. Acceptation above or below it could determine the current session behaviour. For now we also had a first rejection below yes GB close.
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  • #3,172
  • Feb 8, 2017 2:37am Feb 8, 2017 2:37am
25122 is an other important GB ref: most of the last Gb sessions used it as reference. We need acceptation also above it for any meaningfull continuation upside. If not all the way back to composite poc 2479. If acceptation above it we could eventually aim at he upper double pass GB gap.
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  • #3,173
  • Feb 8, 2017 3:30am Feb 8, 2017 3:30am
C inside B, first rejection above 25122 and also above 2505. B low at half back. Very weak environment as expected initially. Go with possible break from C, if it will fail go to opposite side of balance
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  • #3,174
  • Feb 8, 2017 3:35am Feb 8, 2017 3:35am
I'm off for a while because I'm too tired and I cannot follow the market in such condition. Have a nice continuation. See you later. Best L.
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  • #3,175
  • Feb 8, 2017 7:18am Feb 8, 2017 7:18am
25045 is the yesterday late afternoon pull back low: it is the major pit reference for today. Acceptation or rjection above it could lead to opposite scenarios. One aiming to continuation upside (if acceptation above it) the other one a correction downside (if rejection above it). Balance is still possible, as occurred during the entire GB session.
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  • #3,176
  • Feb 8, 2017 9:28am Feb 8, 2017 9:28am
Quoting Lock
25045 is the yesterday late afternoon pull back low: it is the major pit reference for today. Acceptation or rjection above it could lead to opposite scenarios. One aiming to continuation upside (if acceptation above it) the other one a correction downside (if rejection above it). Balance is still possible, as occurred during the entire GB session.

As you see it is trying to test it: watch out if you'll not see continuation below it (if reached).
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  • #3,177
  • Feb 8, 2017 9:36am Feb 8, 2017 9:36am
Btw it has already performed a test below yes unchanged at 2508: and it failed for now. Unchanged is a very important day timeframe reference and we are coming down from an other day timeframe reference (overnight high/preUS high). So watch out.
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  • #3,178
  • Feb 8, 2017 9:43am Feb 8, 2017 9:43am
C high at half back: market ruled by weakest hands.
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  • #3,179
  • Feb 8, 2017 9:48am Feb 8, 2017 9:48am
C period is trying 3 tasks at a time: staying below early morning low (B period low), staying below yes unch and testing below yes afternoon pull back low: for now it didn't manage to get any of them.
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  • #3,180
  • Feb 8, 2017 9:49am Feb 8, 2017 9:49am
Quoting Lock
C high at half back: market ruled by weakest hands.
and as a consequence: taken out.
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