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  • #147,521
  • Feb 6, 2017 3:39pm Feb 6, 2017 3:39pm
Very active session in the FX and Gold board.

Everything on the move except for Euro which is caught in a whirlpool of politicians BS from all sides with very solid EZ numbers in the background opening the window by the minute for the end of QE but at the same time sleeping with risk from elections and Brexit around the corner.

On the other side, Dollar in a launching platform but with Trump trying to press the launch and cancel buttons at the same time ....

Euro choking at the highs for 2 weeks now but bulls keep holding at the end .... Tracking 1.075x for the roll as soft reference for this week ...

sisse

Quoting Hickson
{quote} Did buy today on making new highs, Gold is trending up now ... {image}
1203.xx but far from being loaded. FED killing March was not in my tracking trades in Gold ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,522
  • Feb 6, 2017 4:08pm Feb 6, 2017 4:08pm
...and we are rolling ....2nd time in the last 35 trading days we got a bearish close .... Hard to tell anything new both FA and TA wise (same levels, same trades, same all) but by experience only, these whole last 2 weeks smell funny...very funny ...something big is in the oven and some of the big names in town know it ...but not really sure what it is yet ...

Keeping a very close eye in Euro as it has pretty much break short term correlation with everything and is floating around on its own ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,523
  • Feb 7, 2017 3:16am Feb 7, 2017 3:16am
Lots of comments and action in the European opening with sisse officially declaring currency war triggered for the first time in nearly 30 years. Major western economies ready to ride alone and fight with each other instead of cooperate. Most if not all of us haven't traded this live so expect major short-circuits in correlation, trends and flows across the FX board in the next few weeks/months this year.

Thanks Trump and May we are ready to rock in trading FX but sadly pick up the pieces later in the global economy when things goes tits up as they always do when protectionist and currency wars enter in the picture.

Euro flirting to move ...tracking it closely.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,524
  • Feb 7, 2017 4:13am Feb 7, 2017 4:13am
Intense European morning with risk off triggered from Europe. Sterling getting hammered again via talking heads at Westminster and carrying Euro.

More importantly and for those following how the new geopolitical chess board align.

Germany first country to take a strong stand in favour of free markets, trade and international cooperation instead of nationalism, protectionism and conflict.... How can 70 years can shift country and society positions is for a PHD thesis...

Choose your poison time continue in the world of politics. US/UK/Russia |||| Canada/Germany ...From the big guns, France to decide next and China will be the rain or war maker later.

Major changes and forces in play that will define the trading board in mid and long term.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,525
  • Feb 7, 2017 7:42am Feb 7, 2017 7:42am
Interesting news for retail FX markets. FXCM banned from the US (prolly righly so) but its more interesting the double/triple standards in the US.

The week that most of US fnancial regulations are going to be binned for the big bastards the less access for the average person/trader to free market access.

I am afraid that very soon most of US fellow posters/traders are going to start vanishing (lots have disappeared the last couple of years already) as they are officially a endanger extinct species with a very heavy regualated quasi monopoly for FX retail providers.

US is going upside down in free markets and information very fast. Hopefully this very bad trend will stop soon.

Whatever the case, i hope is not the farewell months for our fellow independent traders across the Atlantic.

Eyes on NY.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,526
  • Edited 8:32am Feb 7, 2017 8:16am | Edited 8:32am
Quoting sisse
Germany first country to take a strong stand in favour of free markets, trade and international cooperation instead of nationalism, protectionism and conflict.... How can 70 years can shift country and society positions is for a PHD thesis... . sisse
If I understood correctly sisse you mean that 70 years has helped Germany to a shift from the fascist ideology of 1930s to an open country? Because I would argue that so far they have been the main beneficiaries of the set up of the EU, managing to create a hegemony that was very convenient, and as a major exporting country (when you factor the population they are top global player) they would certainly prefer to maintain things as they are. I would also support free markets and speak against protectionism if I were Germany.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #147,527
  • Feb 7, 2017 8:24am Feb 7, 2017 8:24am
instead of a healthy correction or downtrend I am waiting fat finger anytime. so that they can wipe out.
  • #147,528
  • Feb 7, 2017 8:31am Feb 7, 2017 8:31am
Quoting sisse
Interesting news for retail FX markets. FXCM banned from the US (prolly righly so) but its more interesting the double/triple standards in the US. The week that most of US fnancial regulations are going to be binned for the big bastards the less access for the average person/trader to free market access. I am afraid that very soon most of US fellow posters/traders are going to start vanishing (lots have disappeared the last couple of years already) as they are officially a endanger extinct species with a very heavy regualated quasi monopoly for...
Hey but they are capping little fish, becouse little fish is too reckless to make money. Aparently that is excuse pointed out regularly. The little fish trading rules are exactly the same as terrorist rules that are stripping down 8 year old children on airports and NSA checkouts, probably a full spectrum dominance as it was pointed by mr.hates.Russia.alot which just by coincidence covers in same fashion across many sectors.
  • #147,529
  • Edited 9:51am Feb 7, 2017 9:40am | Edited 9:51am
well, if my ST map is valid today weakness is just a hint of the next short term move down on ST sell after this painfull politically prolonged chop up of the ST range. I added shorts yesterday in the area of cheap tickets. So far working good however I did not feel comfortable as one solid tweet and the E/U could have taken the extreme and run the MT stops on MT sell down plus the friday price action of H4 and D1 looked awfully bullish.

in any case: much more interesting than watching E/U is to see whats going on in the background on the political front - its running for a major international political and economic chaos. soon Im planning to short UK100 on ST and MT frame.
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  • #147,530
  • Feb 7, 2017 10:42am Feb 7, 2017 10:42am
Quoting sisse
Interesting news for retail FX markets. FXCM banned from the US (prolly righly so) but its more interesting the double/triple standards in the US. The week that most of US fnancial regulations are going to be binned for the big bastards the less access for the average person/trader to free market access. I am afraid that very soon most of US fellow posters/traders are going to start vanishing (lots have disappeared the last couple of years already) as they are officially a endanger extinct species with a very heavy regualated quasi monopoly for...
Sisse,

There are quite a few brokers that offer FX other than FXCM and Oanda. Almost all brokers that offer equity trading offer FX. So, don't be worried, I'll still be around.
  • #147,531
  • Feb 7, 2017 10:57am Feb 7, 2017 10:57am
Europe going home on the verge of reaching boiling point with the talking heads all over the place.

Markets a bit subdue on the European front now overwhelm by the amount of stupidity and tweets coming across the political spectrum in the UK and Europe today.

sisse

Quoting manosk
{quote} If I understood correctly sisse you mean that 70 years has helped .... if I were Germany.
...I was talking about the US and UK....


Quoting chester123
well, if my ST map is valid today weakness is just a hint of the next short term move down on ST sell after this painfull politically prolonged chop up of the ST range. I added shorts yesterday in the area of cheap tickets. So far working good however I did not feel comfortable as one solid tweet and the E/U could have taken the extreme and run the MT stops on MT sell down plus the friday price action of H4 and D1 looked awfully bullish. in any case: much more interesting than watching E/U is to see whats going on in the background on the political...
We are witnessing a disaster on the making, markets wont hold on the sidelines witnessing the stupidity that some politicians are doing. Whatever the case and as stupid as may sound for anybody with more than 2 neurones in the brain, today UK openly declaring economic conflict, trade and currency war against Europe.

One can 'understand' the whole EU discussion but its hard to understand whats the point now after the vote on open fire to the continent ...except for local political gains.

UK Local politics in play because of the Brexit vote taking place but this is probably the last time they will be able to do it without paying a heavy toll (after Article 50 Europe wont be that nice with May). Brexit chapter 2 in full motion and EU elections entering in the picture at the same time (we are set for a hell of a ride).

A collage of non sense, talking heads, populist and cheap nationalism cheerlead in the background by the Murdoch and co mass media empire and promoted in the front by the scumbag of the world ('neonzais in Europe especially in France now and extremist from the left and right). Disgusting ...

The odds of the current status quo holding for much longer are vanishing by the minute. I would even dare to say that is no longer a matter of "IF" but "WHEN" will have the 'kaboom'...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,532
  • Feb 7, 2017 11:02am Feb 7, 2017 11:02am
Hi Sissee! Could you share your view on current political situation. I know you think there is nothing good about it and war is in the air, as I understood from your previous posts, but I would like to ask your opinion about the following:

1. USA, UK are stepping aside from the policy that was conducted several decades.
2. US ambassador in EU told in the interview that after Brexit he expects ***exit. Replace the starts with the name of the country at your choice.
3. Germany contributed a lot to have EU as it is. When financial crisis broke out and it seemed everything will collapse Merckel was crying telling "it's unfaire", there was an article about it, it was a meeting with Obama.

So, we have US and UK separate from Europe and US intending to take advantage of EU problems and contribute to EU falling apart (acc. to US officials), Russia and Germany, whose 3rd Reich dream almost came true and now it became so elusive. It reminds WW2 situation so much, or do you think this time the configuration will be different and China will be in game as well? What will be the end result after the game is over? New Bretton Woods and Jamaica and winners writing new rules?

Also, do you think that the Gulf monarchies (big creditors of US) will be appointed new evil and their "accounts receivable" will be zeroed out?
  • #147,533
  • Feb 7, 2017 11:08am Feb 7, 2017 11:08am
Quoting Maks
...Also, do you think that the Gulf monarchies (big creditors of US) will be appointed new evil and their "accounts receivable" will be zeroed out?
Thats a very interesting topic I was just discussing with some Gulf and UAE investors a few days ago ...we'll discuss later on the close ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,534
  • Feb 7, 2017 11:15am Feb 7, 2017 11:15am
Quoting sisse
Europe going home on the verge of reaching boiling point with the talking heads all over the place. Markets a bit subdue on the European front now overwhelm by the amount of stupidity and tweets coming across the political spectrum in the UK and Europe today. sisse {quote} ...I was talking about the US and UK.... {quote} We are witnessing a disaster on the making, markets wont hold on the sidelines witnessing the stupidity that some politicians are doing. Whatever the case and as stupid as may sound for anybody with more than 2 neurones in...
I basically agree. One thing of the problem is why is this happening. Some blaming "elites", some "globalization", some "minority rights", some "robotization/automatization". I cannot decide but if tha masses have some motive it should be carefully examined whats behind.

Other question is where this leads =) I expect some sort of deglobalization with local wars/conflicts erupting, e.g. South China See (was in Vietnam this year and the situation between those countries is critical, so many people saying a war in that region is question of months), Middle Ease (thats a story for itself), East Europe (Russia taking Baltics, Ukrain and Transnistria. Of course these major changes do not happen overnight but as history evolves faster and faster I think we are talking about months/years and not hundreds years as Roman empire collapse took.

If EU dezintegrates it will be the final nail into the post-WW2 order coffin - it could mean also NATO end. The only possible scenarion I see right now is NT, FR, IT get along elections well and Schultz wins = I think he can reconcile the south europe with germany and could lead to a new order inside EU backing down Germanys dominance and giving more voice to the "periphery". I think the austerity policics and absolute arrogance of Scheuble is toxic for EU.

But who knows. When one hears populist politicians from France, Hungary, Poland, Netherlands etc. The probability of sustaining the european consesus fades very quickly.

P.S: the only thing I dont understand is why we have this way of populism and nationalism without a major economic crisis as in 30īs. In that times most of the dynamics could have been explained via that. But If these policies of financial deregulation and protectionism are to trigger one. I think today would be a supper sunny day compared to whan can come.
  • #147,535
  • Edited 12:29pm Feb 7, 2017 12:13pm | Edited 12:29pm
Wild day in Sterling, BOE unexpectedly (especially after the last meeting) triggering RMT in Sterling*. What started as rumour, became a slip of mouth and the last few hours a pretty much a policy announcement under the table filtering thought the cracks in the walls of some of the ones that knew it in advance in the City...

Whatever the case RMT triggered in the UK ...so you know the drill ...changing and reconfirming outlooks accordingly and here locked and loaded.

sisse

Quoting chester123
...he only thing I dont understand is why we have this way of populism and nationalism without a major economic crisis as in 30
Don't forget that in between we had the happy 20s

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,536
  • Feb 7, 2017 2:32pm Feb 7, 2017 2:32pm
Quoting chester123
{quote}
P.S: the only thing I dont understand is why we have this way of populism and nationalism without a major economic crisis as in 30īs. In that times most of the dynamics could have been explained via that. But If these policies of financial deregulation and protectionism are to trigger one. I think today would be a supper sunny day compared to whan can come.
Mind that just as in that time the crisis (30s) did not start when populists walked on stage, the paths were always laid before that, this is fact as much is was then its now. Meaning timing wise you have to wait a bit before anything starts to develop when you get flashes, altough realistically we are in major tectonic changes since 2011-13 and the last batch 2014 as i was pointing since years ago, altough masses havent noticed yet (time wise proabably 2018 or 2020). When traditional knowledge points at trigger its actually in reality years behind lagging, as micro triggers are laid way before. Trump was just a baked in cake event to happen.
As for crisis itself its already ongoing strongly but its not on US ground for now, as usually it starts where its planned to on probability side, EMs. You simply cannot put EM events outside of perspective of DMs becouse its all completly in the same batch. Second batch are second circle countries in this case perhaps EU, and for US on probability side its last to suffer a major blow.

As for your reference to Roman empire, no empire collapses over night, no structure in history of humanity was as integrated on macro level as we have today, so do not expect EU to deconstruct tomorrow with Russians flowing trough Eeast EU, and US economy going to plunge, its simply outside of scale of probabilities by a miles.
This is a major generalization which has been done over history many times and times after times proven wrong. Globalization prevails whether you like it or not (with hickups in between). Populist from more EU countries will come, but its outcome that matters (structure wise), and no it wont be in populist side more likely than not.
  • #147,537
  • Edited 3:44pm Feb 7, 2017 3:34pm | Edited 3:44pm
Lots of data coming today from different fronts. We are witnessing major shake across the board. Highlight of the day comes from the UK. Despite the headline on Article 50 taking place all day (even right now) at Westminster and blah blah that is more a about local politics rather than anything important, BOE triggering RMT in a rather awkward way.

Sterling unlocking the top of the wide mid term range 1.308x with max ext 1.344x (this one still locked) and intermediate stop 1.282x with a very very wide neutral mid term range in play and RMT, risk via BREXIT and Dollar on the short term pulling it all over the place.

Plenty of trading juice in Sterling*. GJ for the European risk trades, GU for the Dollar moves and EG for the BOE plays all available on the trading workspace....

Tracking closely Euro that is set to lose foot on the close and Sterling for the Brexit short lived headlines knee jerk reaction (if any) on article 50.

sisse

Quoting janpec1000
.... As for your reference to Roman empire, no empire collapses over night, no structure in history of humanity was as integrated on macro level as we have today, s...
--> Way too deterministic from my view but I agree that things are looking rather gloomy.

--> On the empire collapsing, as far I can see, there is no empire (what empire exactly ???) collapsing in play whatsoever but rather a major self made global economic smack down in play made by the 'usual' forces since the beginning of modern societies and way before the concept of nation states even existed. They always have managed to squeeze in and destroy all around it...

-> In a nutshell 2 steps forward one step back ...rinse and repeat with a few WW and some million deaths in between in the name of [insert your most hated religion, colour of skin, nation, etc here] to leave a bloody trait of human stupidity ....

--> From a strictly historical perspective (you need to take a proper historical view) the closest thing to the end of an 'empire' dissolving is the remaining of the UK. It lasted +/-300 years which is the norm in the last 2000 years and we are witnessing the last 'days' from a strictly historical perspective (the UK lost the status of the major 'empire' back in early 1900 and now is just another country flirting to become even more irrelevant as little England).

--> The brexit vote and potential dissolution of the UK as such will be marked in historical context at the end of the process as highlight event no more no less. Neither you or me will see that chapter written as these things are impossible to pinpoint in an exact date. It's like trying to pinpoint the exact date of the end of the Romans, Babylons, Vikings, Egyptians, Greeks, Spanish, etc etc etc...will sure know the around rough period or events but not a exact date with day and time ...plus its irrelevant.

--> But thats from a historical perspective, from a market perspective it has absolutely no value for trading forecasting in 2012 that the US/EU or whoever was going to collapse somewhere in 2020. What is in play right now is that we are in the timeline to cross the bridge between actual political and international changes and the economy. That's the crossover we don't want to miss for trading ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,538
  • Feb 7, 2017 6:24pm Feb 7, 2017 6:24pm
Quoting sisse
Lots of data coming today from different fronts. We are witnessing major shake across the board. Highlight of the day comes from the UK. Despite the headline on Article 50 taking place all day (even right now) at Westminster and blah blah that is more a about local politics rather than anything important, BOE triggering RMT in a rather awkward way. Sterling unlocking the top of the wide mid term range 1.308x with max ext 1.344x (this one still locked) and intermediate stop 1.282x with a very very wide neutral mid term range in play and RMT, risk...
L sterling for a s/o or a shitload, entry was hit earlier. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...79#post9515179
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #147,539
  • Feb 7, 2017 6:34pm Feb 7, 2017 6:34pm
Quoting sisse
Lots of data coming today from different fronts. We are witnessing major shake across the board. Highlight of the day comes from the UK. Despite the headline on Article 50 taking place all day (even right now) at Westminster and blah blah that is more a about local politics rather than anything important, BOE triggering RMT in a rather awkward way. Sterling unlocking the top of the wide mid term range 1.308x with max ext 1.344x (this one still locked) and intermediate stop 1.282x with a very very wide neutral mid term range in play and RMT, risk...
i still have the uj to go lower, but b4 a 106.xx handle i am shooting to get a S entry.. 114.07 is no surprise (kinda expected).. i am trying to surgically place one pending at 115.61 (missed).. my stop is just above 115.62.. 3.5 pip stop may be enough..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #147,540
  • Edited Feb 8, 2017 7:24am Feb 7, 2017 7:30pm | Edited Feb 8, 2017 7:24am
u/cad still has unfinished business at 1.204x. i dont see it atm.. but with some sort of world oil upset it could happen with a oil rise. (weeks months) meanwhile w/o the help of a world upset headline atm. the chart seems to show that headline coming. at least chart wise its ready. depending if it gets the headline i guess.. anyway atm u/cad is at 1.3188. i suspect its going to 1.330x... once there it may weaken. but w/o a headline to help. a better short is probably against the high not being broke at 1.35985.. the closer the better using the high +spread as a stop area. the setup only needs 1.3308.. but as said, i don't see it w/o a oil upset. but the charts many times predict those upsets. the oil chart has reached that brent norm at 56xx before 14.. mostly tin hat atm theory.. 56.xx was just the minimal edge norm. so it could go higher and still keep 14.x valid. anyway here it is.. 1.204 is a normal retrace with a valid 1.24xx as a target. as long as it remains below 1.35985.. but i wouldn't trade it till it reached 1.3308.
edited a fu, 67 to 56 brent
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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