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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #3,101
  • Feb 6, 2017 8:07am Feb 6, 2017 8:07am
Quoting Lock
17/02/06 MONDAY 08:02+1GMT EARLY MORNING REPORT ..... In this particular case remember also that 24436/7 is the first weekly balance high after the 02.10.16 break: it is a go/non go level.
Here we are at our GO/NO GO level for today. Currently tagged by B period.
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  • #3,102
  • Feb 6, 2017 9:03am Feb 6, 2017 9:03am
Note preUS C inside preUS B: this is an other attempted breakout. Balance rules apply again here. Note also pit A high tagging exactly Friday pit low.
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  • #3,103
  • Feb 6, 2017 9:07am Feb 6, 2017 9:07am
At the same time note in USDX the attempted breakout above a bracket of 4 pit sessions. If it will succeed it could influence cable. (And even if it fails obviously)
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  • #3,104
  • Feb 6, 2017 11:35am Feb 6, 2017 11:35am
Quoting Lock
Note preUS C inside preUS B: this is an other attempted breakout. Balance rules apply again here. Note also pit A high tagging exactly Friday pit low.
As you see we are back at the weak A high...
Btw it has been a very very weak environment all day long.
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  • #3,105
  • Feb 6, 2017 11:37am Feb 6, 2017 11:37am
Note also that pit session period B bounced exactly at the half back of the entire move up from 25.10. (2428)
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  • #3,106
  • Feb 6, 2017 2:20pm Feb 6, 2017 2:20pm
Current poor high cluster made by period G J and K is also a tag of Friday unchanged (pit session close 2481) so it is particularly weak. And note that it is the third poor high in a row left by the last 3 pit sessions: the other 2 are at 25213 and 25645. Carry this information forward.
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  • #3,107
  • Feb 6, 2017 2:23pm Feb 6, 2017 2:23pm
Quoting Lock
17/02/06 MONDAY 08:02+1GMT EARLY MORNING REPORT It must be said that we are balancing around a major composite poc (2480) and that in case of attempted break we need volume to evade this pole of attraction, otherwise the possibilities to come back to this level will be substantial. ..
Note that the absence of strong participation, even in this pit session, leaded price to return periodically to the major composite poc at 2480. There was no enough volume to evade it all day long. In such cases when eventually price will manage to escape from such a pole of attraction it will do it with a directional move.
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  • #3,108
  • Feb 6, 2017 2:57pm Feb 6, 2017 2:57pm
Well, let's see next days. I'm off. Have a nice continuation, Best L.
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  • #3,109
  • Edited 1:18am Feb 7, 2017 1:08am | Edited 1:18am
17/02/07 TUESDAY 08:08+1GMT
EARLY MORNING REPORT

We are in a monthly balance, in a weekly balance and in a daily short term trend downside (3 days in a row in one time framing lower action).
What daily chart does not reveal is how this market is going downside in a short term action: it did it leaving behind a substantial amount of weaknesses like 3 poor highs in a row for pit session (yesterday at 24603, Friday at 25213 and Thursday at 25645), then with GB (a poor high at 25375) and Tokyo (poor high at 2498). Also we have above two consecutive double pass gaps, one left by pit (25955-2613) and the other left by GB (25375-25665). Please check all these references because I could do errors too.

Now, generally with such weaknesses all in the same direction, I'd bet on a substantial correction upside. And, btw, this is potentially very possible. But at the same time we have to consider that "weaknesses" are only one data point and, also, could be read in the opposite way we generally do.

When a market is trying to go higher and it finds no new buyers, what do you think is going to happen? It happens that the market in that particular price zone will be left in the hands of the weakest participants (scalpers and day timeframes). Those guys act in the only way they are able to act: they use very exact references to place their positions. A poor high is only a previous high tagged by a new one: it is a very precise and visible reference and it is exactly one of the most common spot used by those weak participants.

So all these data, all these weaknesses could also be read as the total absence of new strong money buying: and what does happen when there are no new strong money buying in a certain zone? It happens that the market has to go lower in order to eventually find them.
So an other serious possibility for the current environment is a liquidation, a sharp one, in order to go down somewhere where eventually those new stronger possible buyers eventually will be ready to enter the market.

So today and next days watch out for both possibilities and do not remain fixed only on the easier one (go upside and take out the weaknesses)
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  • #3,110
  • Feb 7, 2017 1:24am Feb 7, 2017 1:24am
If for the reasons shown above in the report, we are going to experience a liquidation, remember that downside we have a GB poor low at 24115, a Tokyo poor low at 2381 a Sydney poor low at 23685, plus an old GB gap upside at 23578-24115. Then, the next major composite poc in that direction is at 2285.
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  • #3,111
  • Feb 7, 2017 1:32am Feb 7, 2017 1:32am
For upcoming GB session, our most important levels are: yesterday GB low at 2449 (because we want to know if a new gap is going to occur or not), the go no go level underlined yesterday at 24437 (it is the weekly balance high after the break of 02.10.16), and the nearest composite pocs at 2479 and 24168 (because if this weak environment will remain intact, the fairest places at which business has been conducted previously, will probably continue to attract business.)
Obviously the more upcoming GB will go closer to 24115 the more the odds to take it out.

Finally remember the importance of 2428: it is the half back of the entire move up from 25.10.16. Meaning the mid level of the previous major bracket before the new low at 19867.
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  • #3,112
  • Feb 7, 2017 1:43am Feb 7, 2017 1:43am
Quoting Lock
...Obviously the more upcoming GB will go closer to 24115 the more the odds to take it out. ....
Remember that GB 24115 poor low is also the low of the current 10 days bracket: below it we could find short term buyers or sellers. So there (if eventually reached) we could have a substantial retracement upside or a substantial acceleration downside.
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  • #3,113
  • Feb 7, 2017 1:57am Feb 7, 2017 1:57am
P Tokyo period inside period O: balance rules apply here.
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  • #3,114
  • Feb 7, 2017 1:59am Feb 7, 2017 1:59am
Quoting Lock
P Tokyo period inside period O: balance rules apply here.
Well, it was: is no more.
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  • #3,115
  • Feb 7, 2017 2:00am Feb 7, 2017 2:00am
GB open with a new gap lower. Let's see if it will preserve it or not.
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  • #3,116
  • Feb 7, 2017 2:12am Feb 7, 2017 2:12am
Quoting Lock
17/02/07 TUESDAY 08:08+1GMT EARLY MORNING REPORT ....It happens that the market has to go lower in order to eventually find them. So an other serious possibility for the current environment is a liquidation, a sharp one, in order to go down somewhere where eventually those new stronger possible buyers eventually will be ready to enter the market. So today and next days watch out for both possibilities and do not remain fixed only on the easier one (go upside and take out the weaknesses)

Quoting Lock
If for the reasons shown above in the report, we are going to experience a liquidation, remember that downside we have a GB poor low at 24115, a Tokyo poor low at 2381 a Sydney poor low at 23685, plus an old GB gap upside at 23578-24115. Then, the next major composite poc in that direction is at 2285.
Quoting Lock
{quote} Remember that GB 24115 poor low is also the low of the current 10 days bracket: below it we could find short term buyers or sellers. So there (if eventually reached) we could have a substantial retracement upside or a substantial acceleration downside.
The importance of market generated information...
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  • #3,117
  • Feb 7, 2017 2:16am Feb 7, 2017 2:16am
Quoting Lock
If for the reasons shown above in the report, we are going to experience a liquidation, remember that downside we have a GB poor low at 24115, a Tokyo poor low at 2381 a Sydney poor low at 23685, plus an old GB gap upside at 23578-24115. Then, the next major composite poc in that direction is at 2285.
All taken out. Now note the extreme elongation of current A period. People are piling on this liquidation: watch out.
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  • #3,118
  • Feb 7, 2017 2:26am Feb 7, 2017 2:26am
Quoting Lock
{quote} {quote} {quote} The importance of market generated information...
anyway....I was to late behind my desk for this move...next time better
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #3,119
  • Feb 7, 2017 2:28am Feb 7, 2017 2:28am
Quoting Lock
{quote} {quote} {quote} The importance of market generated information...
Excellent analysis. It's on the 200 MA now (2352).
  • #3,120
  • Feb 7, 2017 2:32am Feb 7, 2017 2:32am
Note that 23805 is the half back of the new major bracket from 06.12.2016 (27742) to 16.01.2017 (19867).
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