The Really Useless Thread

Was triggered but not at the spike. I also took an hard SL on it for 25 pips.

99.40 held for this week on USDx . But looking at it I will say we have a bearish close ( just below last week low) Between a rock and a stone or something like that. Maybe sideways until it meets the downside of the channel sometime in the future.

hmm, patience patience patience.

..and we are rolling 1.078x no surprises in the Euro as widely expected since the Fed with an irrelevant but slightly bullish W close. Bulls keep holding for 8 weeks in a row non stop all year long (last time with so many weeks bulls holding was back in 2007 when Euro was in an uptrend).

The highs of the 1.08xx handle naked and defenceless for a quick test with Euro triggering an extremely bullish 'roll play' in daily or for those still holding shorts from the Fed 1.08xx is a simple 'reverso' play...

On the rest and for the mid term not much to update with Dollar holding key 99.4x as Earleone pointed out with same levels, same trades, same all....

sisse

As expected following the weak earnings, Treasury 2-year yields dipped from 1.22% to 1.17%, before paring some of the intraday losses to close at 1.19 - the recovery seen after Fed's Williams (President of San Francisco Fed) made comments endorsing possibility of 3 rate increases in 2017 and spoke of there being arguments for raising as soon as March.

All in all, the above move was very mild and the yield for this maturity - which is the most sensitive to perceived changes to the benchmark rate - remains in consolidation mode, following the surge higher in yields seen in November (from 0.78% to 1.27%).

Meanwhile, Federal Funds futures prices are implying an 8.9% chance of an increase in March, down from 17.7% yesterday.

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/inte...n-to-fomc.html

What dont we sell as high as possible in intraday levels we can say extreme targets...AnD May be buy half size off 1/4 size of that sell position when it is intraday low levels... Or Vise versa. Till it is confirmed oto beyin to lokomotif like turning point. Just thinking which goodd levels sissie really obtain. Not veryansın clear May be what i say but mostly FX is time predict And getirdi risk, to take or to give some.

İ mean instead of to catch a counter trend try to improve balance with risk but where to worth to take.

Indeed its an official mark which will be recorded in the history after june 23, 2016.... but at the same time can we expect a resume in flow in both Gu and Eu ....

on the other hand its all politics whether coming from UK, US or EZ .... the CB's are totally out of the box ..... dont see any interference from the CB's or they dont have any clue .... yellen is no doubt happy with the fiscal blow .... Draghi should fasten its seat belt with the most major point that inflation is ticking up ... close but below 2% .... fed officials shouting now and then 3 hikes in 2017 and markets seems rejecting any BS from the FED officials .... (Investors waiting for the new administration for the upcoming policies) ....

my Q is whats next ?

FEB Interesting article on Globalization. The last sentence backs what sisse has said.
3
The Future of Globalization
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Mn8bFAtCa...balization.jpg
(draft of monthly column for a Chinese paper)

The cross-border movement of goods, services, and capital increased markedly for the thirty years up to the Great Financial Crisis. Although the recovery has given way to a new economic expansion in the major economies, global trade and capital flows remain well below pre-crisis levels. It gives a sense globalization is ending.

The election of Donald Trump as the 45th US President has underscored these fears. His first few weeks in office clearly mark a new era not just for America, but given its central role in late-20th-century globalization, for the world as well. Trump is a bit of a Rorschach test. He did not win a plurality, let alone a majority of the popular vote, but that does not stop pundits from claiming that Trump won because of this or that issue.

There are some campaign promises which Trump has backed away such as citing China as a currency manipulator on his first day as President or pursuing legal charges against Hillary Clinton. His priorities have been repealing the national health insurance, formally withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and signaled an intention to re-open the North American Free Trade Agreement.

Trump and his closest advisers seem intent to unwind not just his predecessor’s initiatives, but the general thrust of America’s grand strategy since the end of WWII. His rhetoric of America First harkens back to Warren Harding, who succeeded Woodrow Wilson after the US Senate rejected the League of Nations. Some historians refer to that period as ‘isolationism, ’ but in practice it was unilateralist.

The US grand strategy was first articulated around the start of the 20th century. China was being carved up by the European imperialist powers and Japan. The US was the new revisionist power. It objected to traditional spheres of influence approach to international relations and defended China’s territorial integrity.

Spheres of influence is not a particularly stable approach. It is a zero-sum exercise. To expand one’s sphere meant encroaching on another. This was frequently the source of wars. As an alternative to fixed spheres of influence, the US proposed variable shares. The variability was determined by one’s economic prowess. Rather than try to secure its own concessions in China as numerous European countries and Japan did, the US wanted to have access to all of China for its goods and capital.

It was not until after WWII that a political consensus was forged for Open Door. The World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade institutionalized the variable shares strategy. It also required that Britain and France give up their colonial practices. By early in the 21st century, nearly all countries had joined the World Trade Organization, the successor of GATT, and were members of the IMF and World Bank.

The reduction of tariff barriers to trade and the conflict resolution mechanism made possible the economic development of emerging market economies in Latin America and Asia, including China. The rule of law has helped avoid the escalation of trade conflicts.

Within the free-trade system, there are two basic approaches to meeting foreign demand. The first is the traditional export approach. Germany is the worlds’ largest exporter. It typically exports around 40% of GDP. Finland, Sweden, and Switzerland are also examples of advanced economies that rely on exports.

For more than half a century, the US developed an alternative approach. It is based on foreign direct investment: build locally, sell locally. Since the early 1960s, the sales by the foreign affiliates of US multinationals exceeds US exports. It is not even close. Local sales exceed exports by nearly five to one. Ministry of Finance data suggests Japanese companies made a similar transition in the late 1990s.

The direct investment strategy is also consistent with extensive global supply chains. The production process itself is dissembled, and the pieces are distributed around the world. It is driven by numerous considerations, and not all reduced to short-term bottom-line savings, like labor costs. For example, most of the US foreign direct investment is not in the lowest labor cost centers, but the opposite. US businesses often want to be close to their customers.

The direct investment strategy also can lead to development in the countries, which means increased standards of living in absolute terms, in a way that export strategy simply does not. A German company exports a machine tool to China. The company that buys it may succeed in its domestic competition, but the export does not generate new aggregate demand.

Foreign direct investment in China creates new jobs and may transfer technology to China. It helps boost aggregate demand. It does not stop there. Some of the new demand will be for goods from foreign countries. The latest research suggests that an American firm that hires low-skilled workers abroad does indeed compete with low-skilled domestic workers. However, the employment of skilled workers outside of the US bolsters the employment of skilled domestic workers.

The direct investment strategy also has advantages over the export-oriented strategy in a period of floating, which is to say volatile foreign exchange prices. An exporter is often at the mercy of its currency relative to its largest customers and competitors. With the foreign direct investment, one can construct diversified exposure, with natural hedges or internal offsets.

On the eve of World War I, as Lenin was writing Imperialism: The Highest Stage of Capitalism, late-19th-century globalism was about to collapse. It was not rebuilt until after WWII under what some call Pax Americana. It is that which is often meant by globalization now. It is under threat now but not because of terrorism or intra-capitalist rivalries. Competing ideologies and visions are not undermining globalization. The threat is emanating from the country that is often accused of benefiting the most with its exorbitant privilege and its vast economic and military power.




Disclaimer




Posted 22 hours ago by Marc Chandler
Labels: Globalization US

hy man can u pm me too with that word doc?

Yup. Hold on. I think it was a pdf actually. I'll post it here.


Ok attached is the pdf someone (sorry can't remember who) so nicely put together.
It stops maybe a little before the end of the conversation here I think so here's the link to where conversation started in this thread if you wanted to follow that through:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...53#post9158453

guys i have read about central banks and their monetary policy i have read about economic indicators i know that markets move in the expectations of this things but somehow i can't put all this pieces toghether like SISSE does in his analysys it makes me go nuts ? how did u all learned to do fundamental analysys ? do u have something like a checklist something like if "inflation goes up then interest rates must go up"?

Easiest way to go about is to check history. If X happen does Y follows up on it more often than not. You have to make sure is that X in past is very similar to your current day X otherwise performance will change. The higher the X/Y performance the better macro it is for you. That should be the core of go about on anything for trading no matter if you are in fundy camp or tech or else. Every X is complex macro when it comes to fundies generally and has many different variables, for example when it comes to rates you cant just define rates up or down and by how much simply by only looking at inflation, there are many other additional variables that play just as important role to define that, defining the Y performance.

Main media outlets writing articles like this one more and more.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/02/gop-c...consumers.html

Perhaps an indicator of which way rumor (not fact) will push on USD. Let the tweet battle begin. White House 1, Economic talking heads 0 is where it stands right now I believe.

Incoming strenght on NZD and AUD likely in next days. Watching for micros.

7210 done. Closing here some London longs, leaving the rest for higher.

...uneventful European session week open in a very light weeks from the report front with nothing new in play but hijacked in populism 'tweet mode' from both UK and US. Lots of noise from the UK as its expected before Article 50 is officially signed. From Scotland to lots of talking heads from both sides.

May and the UK has been particularly aggressive leaving zero room for a friendly divorce while on the EU side a rather very soft tone but things will dramatically change in the next few days when the UK officially announce its leaving as it will enter in open confrontation mode....we are set for a very ugly and jittery non market-/economic driven rest of the Quarter ....

Buckle up as politicians (and populist ones) will be in full control of markets from this week onwards....

On the FX board, a rather dull morning with Euro holding 1.078x without much interest ...and as long as it hold there is no much to see or do but same levels, same trades, same all...

sisse

I am still pretty confused on this subject. Could you please explain more?
It seems to me that rising prices of equities (SPX500) will generate more demand for USD (people who want to buy the equities will need to find this cash and they will need even more cash because the prices are rising).
For sure in case of SPX500 being sold off, there will be also demand for cash (again from the side of buyers, who will have to find the cash in order to do the transactions ), however I do not understand why this demand will be bigger compared to the case when SPX500 is raising? (all other things being equal)

i think i need something like a checklist to know what to look for

Look here in the thread for posts 19th of december 2016. USDCAD.

--> Uneventful day for trading but the 'decibel' levels from talking heads and countries across the world is reaching levels we haven't witness in decades. We are about to enter in a uncharted water we haven't seen in the last 30 years.

Protectionism and currency manipulation for political gains and uncompetitive advantage is at center stages and sadly the leader of free markets now are taking the lead and moving the world to a darker place in that front ....its going to end up very bad ...for all with no winners except the haven countries like Switzerland.

--> US is declaring that will join China as lone rider with Dollar sending threats to Japan, China, Mexico and everybody else. Sterling and Euro are going to have major clash in a currency war that will have more looser than winners, CHF is well positioning to handle a major blow with negative rates and fix exchange rate....commodity currencies ready to blow up while emergent one will be nothing else but chaos.

Paraphrasing Gator, the FX world is reseting 40 years (to the 70s) at very fast pace. A huge rush on Gold that like always in this cases of FX wars and protectionism is the only safe place in the last few session but specially today sending screaming signals that we are going for a full blown FX scenario via risk. Strong hands positioning in Gold today on the commodity close eyeballing 1611.xx with intermediate stop 1470.xx.

Changing short and mid term outlook in Gold to buy.

sisse

Did buy today on making new highs, Gold is trending up now ...