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Bored Fibonacci trade RR: 1:1.2

  • #61
  • Dec 9, 2016 2:20am Dec 9, 2016 2:20am
Quoting MaryJane
Hi, interesting approach
In cTrader i can set what trigger to use

usually i buy and sell at the bid price

beter for the strategy but not so good for the wallet on a M2 chart

so basically i leave the spread on the table, since we are after the price and not the p/l

i see too many times 83% moves and immideate retracements.
  • #62
  • Dec 9, 2016 2:33am Dec 9, 2016 2:33am
Quoting nullx8
In cTrader i can set what trigger to use
understood, thx for your reply
MarginTrader All Time Return: na
  • #63
  • Dec 9, 2016 3:53am Dec 9, 2016 3:53am
Quoting MaryJane
{quote}the 0 is never used in orders, in MT4 it's the 3rd dot in expansion so I prefer to not draw the line to avoid clutter {image}
I ise the 0 line, so i can put the end of the extention line somewhere where no candles are (in the future)
its more easy to make corrections.

but yes, besides that, the zero line has no value or function
  • #64
  • Dec 9, 2016 5:39am Dec 9, 2016 5:39am
Hi. Your levels helped me a lot to improve my trading.
So I'll post here my progress so if I can help adding something that worked fine for me for a while.
Check this out.

It's a partial TP which can improve the profitability redeeming the costs (spread)
transforming the over all combination to a 1.5:1 RR which can absorb the costs in time quite nicely.

Ok, I used it as a retracement style, not as an expansion.
But I guess it can improve your expansion style as well.

1. So, if the entry is at 38% (say 1 Lot) and rate hits 80% TP(I) you have secured a +0.5 profit closing 1/2 of the positions volume;
2. If 122% TP(II) is hit later you got another +1 (running 1/2 volume on double lengh). Thus, +1.5 for all;
3. SL it's at break even if 83 was hit first (-1);

I know, you would prefer to take the profit at 83 with 1:1RR.
Or 2:1 Sounds much square and fair

Tell me what you think though
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Member
  • #65
  • Dec 9, 2016 6:35am Dec 9, 2016 6:35am
Quoting TudorIoan
I know, you would prefer to take the profit at 83 with 1:1RR. Or 2:1 Sounds much square and fair Tell me what you think though {image}
actually i get regularly pissed of if the price runs easy to 122% (which does happen indeed on serval occasions)
the problem is the 100% .. and the way too tight stop loss .. since this strategy is purely based on momentum ..

if iam 100% honest .. i working on a way to add to the position wile going to 122.

currently i use the larger timeframe as "excuse" to remove TP

so i enter in the extension based on the small timeframe, which usually gives me a huge lot size .. because the stop loss is really close

but then i just leave it run to the 38% from teh larger timeframe .. once that is reached and the stoploss meets the larger timeframe i change to order to meet the risk level of the larger one .. (most of the time that mean i have to sell a huge part .. as 2% on a 5 pip stoploss is much larger as 2% on a 20pip stoploss

but i have not yet figured out a smart way of doing that ..
  • #66
  • Dec 9, 2016 7:22am Dec 9, 2016 7:22am
Quoting nullx8
{quote} actually i get regularly pissed of if the price runs easy to 122% (which does happen indeed on serval occasions) the problem is the 100% .. and the way too tight stop loss .. since this strategy is purely based on momentum .. if iam 100% honest .. i working on a way to add to the position wile going to 122. currently i use the larger timeframe as "excuse" to remove TP so i enter in the extension based on the small timeframe, which usually gives me a huge lot size .. because the stop loss is really close but then i just leave it run to the...
If the problem is the 100% then maybe is better to use retracement instead expansion. Because when the retrace hits 38 you can entry right away, not wait the confirmation to cover 0 - 38 zone. I mean the retracement strategy brings 122 closer.

I think that adding more to the initial position on the way to 122 it's kinda cutting both ways solution ...if price turns suddenly.
Member
  • #67
  • Dec 9, 2016 7:36am Dec 9, 2016 7:36am
here is a example ..

i enteres on the M7 chart first.

the 83% Fib on M7 was "almost" ther 38% on M45
so on 83% at M7 instead of TP i just closed most of the position to meet the new 17pip Stoploss (on M7 it was just6)
advantage is .. the M45 entry has already a green position .. on 38% because of the left over position. and the lot size is because of that larger as the stoploss is technically not as long as it would have been by entering on 38% new.

total RR: 3:1 ..
but thats way to complicated for a no-brainer strategy like this is

if go from 38 to 83 .. all you need is 1 swing plotting the direction and there you go .. it works about 80% of the time at the 2nd swing. and about 60% of the times on the 3rd swing, and amlost never on the 4th one (only exeption was russel 2000 last week .. there it worked 11 times .. haha)

zooming out to a larger timeframe is kind of abusing the rules about "it works on the 2 following swings"
butthen .. have to look much more detailed on the priceaction (no-brain factor is pretty much gone)
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  • #68
  • Dec 9, 2016 4:41pm Dec 9, 2016 4:41pm
Quoting TudorIoan
maybe is better to use retracement instead expansion
using retracement as in the chart you posted, you would have to use limit orders, instead of stop orders.

this implies a major disadvantage: if a move goes totally against you, your order will always get filled... with expansion using stop orders, price has to go your way first (as the author says - it works because of momentum!); in many cases the stop order doesn't even get filled if price turns on you sharply, avoiding some clear losses.

i'm afraid that using retracement, there will be much more losers than with the extension.
MarginTrader All Time Return: na
  • #69
  • Dec 9, 2016 9:41pm Dec 9, 2016 9:41pm
Quote
in many cases the stop order doesn't even get filled if price turns on you sharply, avoiding some clear losses. i'm afraid that using retracement, there will be much more losers than with the extension.

true.
i think this works best by turn off FOMO and be happy with what the strategy aims.
it's not like the current pullback was the last one

i admit, its hard to do, seeing tp is hit, and then watch the price going to the moon,

in the end 2% are 2%
i have to be stronger about this too, too many times i try to catch more, or remove the stoploss because the larger timeframe confirmes the direction, ending up loosing 3 days winnings.

i making now a trading jurnal, with screenshoots of each trade, so i can re-evaluate them on the weekend.
especially about the "what happen after" and the "what if" factors.
  • #70
  • Dec 10, 2016 1:49am Dec 10, 2016 1:49am
Quoting MaryJane
{quote} using retracement as in the chart you posted, you would have to use limit orders, instead of stop orders. this implies a major disadvantage: if a move goes totally against you, your order will always get filled... with expansion using stop orders, price has to go your way first (as the author says - it works because of momentum!); in many cases the stop order doesn't even get filled if price turns on you sharply, avoiding some clear losses. i'm afraid that using retracement, there will be much more losers than with the extension.
well, the disadvantage it's obvious, i haven't omitted that. is just that i suggested that disavntg can be somehow compensated by bringing the target closer with 38%.
and also compensated more by some MM combination presented above.
anyway, to be honest, i'm not 100% sure if it's working better - my experiments/statistics still in progress.
thank you considering my post, you sound pretty right, but i say that only experience can tell if in the market conditions the "improved" retracement extension levels works really better than the expansions.
my wild guess is that is no big difference ( that wicked mm "improvement" included)

Quoting nullx8
{quote} true. i think this works best by turn off FOMO and be happy with what the strategy aims. it's not like the current pullback was the last one i admit, its hard to do, seeing tp is hit, and then watch the price going to the moon, in the end 2% are 2% i have to be stronger about this too, too many times i try to catch more, or remove the stoploss because the larger timeframe confirmes the direction, ending up loosing 3 days winnings. i making now a trading jurnal, with screenshoots of each trade, so i can re-evaluate them...
looking forward the journal. this strategy it's best scalping stuff for me. worth attention and study. thnx
Member
  • #71
  • Dec 10, 2016 5:27am Dec 10, 2016 5:27am
Quoting TudorIoan
looking forward the journal. this strategy it's best scalping stuff for me. worth attention and study. thnx
well i "try" .. and got bored one day 1 already ...
good thing iam a coder, ill make a small php app that does track the trades for me .. so i can just upload the screenshoots.
  • #72
  • Edited 1:36pm Dec 10, 2016 12:26pm | Edited 1:36pm
Quoting TudorIoan
only experience can tell if in the market conditions the "improved" retracement extension levels works really better than the expansions
yes, exactly.. it's worth some testing. What I think is a trader who's got a LOT of experience (screentime), guessing impulse legs mostly correctly, may take advantage from the retracement scheme as the entry is better, stop is "more far" in absolute price, target is giving better R/R.. if the impulse guesswork is worse, then the expansion scheme will score better as it actually requires the price to move in right direction to fill the order.

Quoting TudorIoan
this strategy it's best scalping stuff for me. worth attention and study.
Yeah right, one of brightest things I've ever encountered here in FF, seriously

the best thing is: it's an almost mechanical approach which can be applied as an 'executive extension' to whatever momentum-building sign you can 'read' in the market.

Example: Post #1 stresses out it's necessary to find a trend first, then apply. That's very correct, because a trend structure gives higher probability of continuation.

Yet myself, being more of a top/bottom picker fool and adherer to a "there's no trend, just moves" philosophy, I have tested it last week with purely countertrend setups - price approaching significant SR/SD area in H1/H4, there's almost always a sign of rejection even if the level breaks a bit later.. and in small TFs, while price approaching such a level, there's very often a structure supported by a micro trendline that, if breaks, gives an excellent opportunity to enter on 1st impulse leg's PB of the rejection (small TF like M1). Many times (everytime if it's not a V-shape reversal) there is no further continuation and price turns back for a retest of the level, but the very 1st PB, if well recognized, is an almost certain way to bank pips on 83% rinse & repeat on consecutive retests, and if momentum story in very small TF tells the level probably held, it's time to unlock the target

Quoting nullx8
well i "try" ..
please "try"looking forward to it!
MarginTrader All Time Return: na
  • #73
  • Edited 2:05pm Dec 10, 2016 12:55pm | Edited 2:05pm
some countertrend setups from last week
SORRYi've had the stop wrong+5 instead of -5but it survived (luck && momentum)
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more risky.. local M1 S/D play after TL break:
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@Mario if it's disturbing posting countertrend setups here, I will cease and delete this, just tell me
MarginTrader All Time Return: na
  • #74
  • Dec 11, 2016 10:35am Dec 11, 2016 10:35am
Quoting MaryJane
some countertrend setups e} more risky.. local M1 S/D play after TL break
excellent idea to associate TLs with expansions!
Member
  • #75
  • Dec 13, 2016 11:57pm Dec 13, 2016 11:57pm
Quoting MaryJane
@Mario if it's disturbing posting countertrend setups here, I will cease and delete this, just tell me
NOOOOOO !! please continue .. i see you get the drill

the Wigs do matter most .. most peoples confusing candles with momentum .. thats just dead wrong .. but you do it just like i do it ..

just today i made 6 trades inside of 2 M15 candles

price pulls back .. the candle gets smaller but the wig gets bigger (thats a pullback already) the 38% keeps us from entering too early.

okay on setups like this i just go for 0.5% or so as you need to 100% focus the priceaction.
of i do other stuff .. i also only consider candle color changes ..

i think the most important part on this strategy is simply to accept the gain .. and not try to get more, as in too many times between 80and83% .. there comes another pullback and if the micro-trend does reverse ... sl is almost certain t be hit.
sure if look on historical charts, often 120% or 160% is hit .. but after the candle is build, its really hard to see how far it went back.

if the trend is confirmed .. i risk sometimes only 0.5% .. stoploss at swing high .. wait for another pullback .. draw the extention again .. double the position at 38%

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managed to do this 18 times last week
DONT!! copy that !!! Slipage from a news event or so would have killed the whole trade and put me in a HUGE loss.. but it is possible
  • #76
  • Feb 4, 2017 5:46am Feb 4, 2017 5:46am
Hi Nullx8, interesting strategy, thanks for sharing, week-end is always time to improve my scalping strategy and as i'm using fibo retracement sometimes so i found your thread with this expansion strategy.
I did not understand your fibo 1st point in this pictures below, i read your rules but cannot really see any consolidation below this point so why the 1 st point is not below ?

As Mary Jane i like to enter on higher time frame (or zoom out m1) S/R without confirmation with a small SL on m1 chart, i also like to enter twice, first time on S/R and the second time, with bigger lot, when i found confirmation of bounced with engulfing or/and HA candle changing color, but i think your expansion will be a more better way to re enter so i subscribed and will test this next week on Asia session as you, will give my feed back here if you re ok with this (?!)

Have a nice week end all
Ockham
Attached Image
There is no way to happiness , happiness is the way.
  • #77
  • Oct 27, 2017 3:15am Oct 27, 2017 3:15am
Quoting Ockham
{image}
I actually do that.
entering the bottoms.
the 38% is just a way to get some confirmation without thinking too much ...

that's why its called "bored fib"

I still trading this strategy (if nothing better comes up) but mainly I trade vWap reversals to make the real money ...

cheers
P.S.: check out my journal https://swingfish.trade/journal
  • #78
  • Oct 27, 2017 4:12am Oct 27, 2017 4:12am
GREAT Stuff
  • #79
  • Oct 27, 2017 5:39am Oct 27, 2017 5:39am
Quoting danc
GREAT Stuff
it's for the lazy & non-pip hungry ones like me
  • #80
  • Oct 27, 2017 10:55pm Oct 27, 2017 10:55pm
MMMMMMMM
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