Bored Fibonacci trade RR: 1:1.2

everyone knows "DONT Trade if you bored"
well, i did it anyway and blow away ALOT of $$ in the process.

if you are like me and can't control yourself .. better stop trading
or do this below:
it's basically a way to let you "chase trades"

based on Beauty rather than difficult analytics ... (yes I meant Beauty, because the strategy works best and only on a clear structure)
perfect for quiet markets (personally I make the best results in the Asian session as there are less news and levels are better respected)

look at this screen below and tell me if you would have taken this trade off the 1H chart:

I would not

so the first part of this strategy is to zoom in/out so far until the chart does look "nice"
where "nice"means where you can clearly see the steps a typical trend does "HH-HL-HH" or "LH-LL-LH"

like this (same time as above, just on M3)


Indicators needed: None
Tools Needed: Fibonacci extension tool with the values: 0, -5, 38, 83

find the trend-sequence appearing "CLEARLY"(this is VERY VERY important!!! .. if there is consolidation in the way .. drop it .. wait for next setup.)

Long Setup:

1. draw the first part of the extension from LH to HH while the retracement-candles are still building
2. after this you can place a buy stop with SL and TP preset already as the range will not change anymore. this enables you to make proper Money Management.
3. then "correct"the Extention line to the currently building HL ONLY Downwards and keep moving the Buy Stop to align with 38% of the Extention.
4. once direction change upwards .. wait

3 things can happen:

1. price goes below stop loss -> move the extention to the new Low and -> move pending order to be filled at the new 38% level
2. price goes lower than previous low -> Cancel order (trend is no longer valid)
3. order get filed -> wait for TP

I tested this with 152 trades with a 56% Win Ratio.
let me know what you guys think of that.

quick Video about the re-positioning

Quick example about re-evaluating via larger timeframes: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...08#post9301208

also, momentum usually grants positive slippage .. as you can see the exit did happen much later as anticipated/planned


okay, thats a prime cherrypicked example .. as the whole trade did just take about 9 seconds
it's not like it usually goes but positive slippage is very common for some reason

here is another one from a few minutes ago

USDJPY M4

 

1. Lower High - Lower Low
2. draw first part of the Extention
3. measure distance between 38 and -5 (in the example it was 8.5 pip)
4. place sell stop order with 8.5 pip stop loss ... adjust size to match your MM Risk amount.
5. i "corrected" the extension 2 times upwards and moved the sell stop accordingly so it stays on the 38% line
   while move the extension the size and distance will not change .. so its really simple adjustments

result: 82$ in 18 Minutes

Short AUD USD 5 minutes ago .. on M4

it was 1 Lot .. i sold half twice for no real reason

can't always win ..
but this one was mainly me being extra Stupid.

misstaken the London Open with a breakout and gone short

Wendsday update

AUDUSD countertrend trade (not advisable, but worked)


USDJPY beautifully hit the 83% and reversed instantly after order was closed by TP


a looser (2 hours earlier) also USDJPY
perfect setup ... well it can't always work


total 9 trades

again (yes i did it again)
do not trade into a market opening !!

1 win 1 loss (the winner did luckily hit the target a few sec before London opens (with EURUSD i was not so lucky)

note to myself: stop being stupid and look at the time !
note 2: proper money management would made this 2 trades break even .. sadly the winning position was a wild guess and the looser was exactly based on MM

+3.6
-2.6

DealMap from Monday

13 Trades: 10 winners 2 loosers

Hi
I was looking for a long time a profitable trend/countertrend waves expansion.
Thnx.
(backtesting on long term to validate and estabilish average profitability now)

great .. would be really nice if someone have another eye on it.

the reward is not so great .. but it can be executed very frequently .. just find structure .. does not really matter how small the timeframe is ..
in my experience .. the better the structure the better the success rate.

83% is not a Fibonacci Number !
the aim is actually the fibonaci number 89 but after A LOT of trades i noticed it takes MUCH longer to reach 98 (usually requires another pullback)
so 83 however is MUCH more easy to reach.

i usually change TF 2 - 3 times per day, depending on market movement ..
just flip trough the charts until the structure id most clear ... there is no real rule what to use to which time, thats why it can't be automated.

Looks like a nicely measured 1 - 2 - 3 strategy to me, applied by someone who has some detailed experience of the market. Tell me if I'm wrong.

yes pretty much it is .. but actively ignoring all surroundings, only focusing on the structure itself.

i always risk 2% so for me it does not really matter making alot of pips.
i grow my account by 11% on Monday with 13 trades but "traveled" only 29 pips

Now you have my attention. Lol.

well about the pips i just guessed ..
here is a statement
+73 - 50.8 Gain: 22.8

but couning pips does not really work .. as some orders had large stoploss and some tiny ones .. so the "smaller pips" where worth a lot more $$ than the larger ones

see yourself:

quick video about the "correction process"
sorry no sound i just made it a few min ago

wow, I like such simple systems like this one
Good job, thanks.

here is a "extended" version of this trade style

i entered on the reversal on the 1 Minute chart .. then zoomed out to M3, M7, M15, M20

as the market closed (trade still open) i was on M20 and it has now 151$ (21 pips) but i risked only 24$ (2 pip) to enter it .. as the risk was just 2 pip so the lot size is larger (simple money management)


new target is 255$ .. that would be a 1:10 with no sweat ... (at market close it was 1:6 already)

simply keep drawing/moving the extension over the new pullbacks if the trades still open .. that gives you a new 83% target and move the stop to the new -5
(well i did not do that on that trade .. but you get the idea )

closed with 265$ (risked 21$) guess I'm done for today

feels good to make $$ while sleeping

sometimes its quite difficult to "see" the structure

and the more unclear it becomes, the less likely it will happen or you get stop out by spikes.
well since i made far as anticipated via the weekend trade i was testing some of the more difficult ones



its still in progress