The Really Useless Thread | Page 7375 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Really Useless System 25 replies

Bloomberg: VIX Indicator useless for forecasting the direction of equity prices 0 replies

The Really Really Boring Forex System 97 replies

Attachments: The Really Useless Thread
Exit Attachments

The Really Useless Thread

  • #147,481
  • Feb 3, 2017 12:59pm Feb 3, 2017 12:59pm
.075x bearish
  • #147,482
  • Feb 3, 2017 1:01pm Feb 3, 2017 1:01pm
Quoting goosebone
Looking at the daily now let me try that again. Over 820 bullish (not expected) Under 820 (expected) bullish/neutral Under 780 (expected) neutral Under 750 (not expected) bearish My pick for the roll is a neutral 780
we may see weekly close under 1,075X..
Wise decisions are based on lies we living..
  • #147,483
  • Edited 1:35pm Feb 3, 2017 1:04pm | Edited 1:35pm
Quoting chronical
{quote} we may see weekly close under 1,075X..
Most definitely we could. I guess that would look bearish/neutral to me on the weekly and bearish to me on the daily.
  • #147,484
  • Feb 3, 2017 1:11pm Feb 3, 2017 1:11pm
I would say under .068x since last week closed around there. I know that wasn't available but more bearish confirmation for me.

I'm not sure if I am allowed to give my thoughts on it.
  • #147,485
  • Feb 3, 2017 1:51pm Feb 3, 2017 1:51pm
Quoting goosebone
Looking at the daily now let me try that again. Over 820 bullish (not expected) Under 820 (expected) bullish/neutral Under 780 (expected) neutral Under 750 (not expected) bearish My pick for the roll is a neutral 780
hmmm so you were force to think for this one....

--> Look I was trying to make you think in advance. You [and a few others] are maybe too reactive in trading, showing that you come from trading reactively charts patterns and indicators. I am not implying you have to jump all over the place forecasting or trade blindly neither the validity of patterns or indicators in general but I am trying to make your decisions, plans, scenarios and trading plans before (when possible) charts reach there.

--> So when chart reach there you already have your paths and options and risk for trading already clear and defined making the actual trigger (or the lack of it) just the final formality to follow your path.

--> You need to think ahead if you want to make it in this business. Don't sit and wait for charts to give you the answer as when chart reach to those areas its a lot harder to make decisions. Anticipate charts areas and scenarios so when they happen you already have the picture clear while the rest are just thinking on the spot ...you will get miles ahead in performance.

--> This apply for FA and TA. I this particular case while you were thinking or looking at today price after the FED initial reaction you should have been already anticipating where should be the close especially given that we are in key areas in the Euro.

I am not expecting you knew (nobody does) the exact area but you should have a pretty clear picture for what was the area in play for the close (assuming no unexpected factors). I gave you 4 options and whatever was your answer you just needed to put if that was bullish or bearish or neutral for the WEEK...

So lets do it one more time, now with a huge benefit of hindsight and a lot lower than 1.079x we were before so let me ask you again with 2 hours for the roll:

@goosebone To wrap up the week ...next question. Where are we rolling ? can we spot that? and if so what will make a bullish/neutral or bearish close (just for the week)

a. 1.078x [bullish / neutral or bearish]
b 1.0820 [bullish / neutral or bearish]
c. 1.075x [bullish / neutral or bearish]
d. No fck clue [you better have it by now]

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,486
  • Feb 3, 2017 1:59pm Feb 3, 2017 1:59pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} hmmm so you were force to think for this one.... --> Look I was trying to make you think in advance. You [and a few others] are maybe too reactive in trading, showing that you come from trading reactively charts patterns and indicators. I am not implying you have to jump all over the place forecasting or trade blindly neither the validity of patterns or indicators in general but I am trying to make your decisions, plans, scenarios and trading plans before (when possible) charts reach there. --> So when chart reach there you already have...
A neutral
B bullish
C bearish
D Not telling.
  • #147,487
  • Feb 3, 2017 2:12pm Feb 3, 2017 2:12pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} A neutral B bullish C bearish D Not telling.
Sorry for jumping in on this one - please ignore if this interrupts the conversation with goosebone.

I would guess we roll at 1.0780 but I don't see a bearish scenario in the options offered.

What definition to you place on bullish/bearish/neutral close? close above/below previous weekly candle, candle formation in terms of wicks?
  • #147,488
  • Feb 3, 2017 2:22pm Feb 3, 2017 2:22pm
Quoting suntan
{quote} Sorry for jumping in on this one - please ignore if this interrupts the conversation with goosebone. I would guess we roll at 1.0780 but I don't see a bearish scenario in the options offered. What definition to you place on bullish/bearish/neutral close? close above/below previous weekly candle, candle formation in terms of wicks?
Public forum. No private conversation here so no interruption possible. There's some links to previous posts about this I'll try to pm you those. Someone compiled them in a word doc too I think. It's really second nature to most traders here I think which is why I find it at least a little embarrassing that I just can't soak it in yet. Im sure i overthink it as thats a hobby of mine. But yes, you got the idea what you wrote there. But understanding what those wicks and candle bodies, opens closes really represent and how each is a description of the forces in play is kind of the heart of it so not really patterns per se
  • #147,489
  • Feb 3, 2017 2:24pm Feb 3, 2017 2:24pm
Quoting suntan
{quote} Sorry for jumping in on this one - please ignore if this interrupts the conversation with goosebone. I would guess we roll at 1.0780 but I don't see a bearish scenario in the options offered. What definition to you place on bullish/bearish/neutral close? close above/below previous weekly candle, candle formation in terms of wicks?
What is bullish/bearish/neutral in expectation? Generalization and asumption is a fucking killer in trading. Simply becouse something closes above/bellow flat line means nothing if it doesnt perform/overperform in short/mid/long term run.
The point here being just if someone says what is bearish close it means almost nothing to you, becouse you do not know the real expected performance of such close. Only if you know it, you can base your view or aligment on it. So "definition" of close is worth nothing, if one knows not the performance of how, where and why (why if possible).
Do the homework on whatever you are told by anyone, that is one of best lesson you will get in trading, becouse i tell you what, its filled with more myths that freaking Greek Mythology.
  • #147,490
  • Feb 3, 2017 2:30pm Feb 3, 2017 2:30pm
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} ..x ... And I have a question for sisse and everyone ... Views for 8th Feb EU vote ...?
Nothing to see. It just a formality vote they are not even going to debate details. They will regret later not discussing the most important decision in 25 years because of politics but for trading purposes is just the official [check] mark.

We already are well into Chapter 2 Brexit flow since last week .....we called live and some of us are already well into positions (check @USD-Bear backpost posts) ...

sisse

Quoting goosebone
{quote} A neutral B bullish C bearish D Not telling.
Ok we'll check in a few....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,491
  • Feb 3, 2017 2:33pm Feb 3, 2017 2:33pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} What is bullish/bearish/neutral in expectation? Generalization and asumption is a fucking killer in trading. Simply becouse something closes above/bellow flat line means nothing if it doesnt perform/overperform in short/mid/long term run. The point here being just if someone says what is bearish close it means almost nothing to you, becouse you do not know the real expected performance of such close. Only if you know it, you can base your view or aligment on it. So "definition" of close is worth nothing, if one knows not the performance...
Idk. Points of control in the hands of bears vs bulls specific to time frame seem less like mythology and more like a good way to get the TA of that time frame understood while keeping it all in the FA frame of reference. But yes. Homework.
  • #147,492
  • Feb 3, 2017 2:44pm Feb 3, 2017 2:44pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Idk. Points of control in the hands of bears vs bulls specific to time frame seem less like mythology and more like a good way to get the TA of that time frame understood while keeping it all in the FA frame of reference. But yes. Homework.
...and Equities closing so last question of the week. Now we are back to 1.078x ....have you change your mind? Now you have all the information on the table so:

@goosebone To wrap up the week ...final question. Where are we rolling ?

a. 1.078x
b 1.0820
c. 1.075x
d. No fck clue

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,493
  • Feb 3, 2017 2:46pm Feb 3, 2017 2:46pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} ...and Equities closing so last question of the week. Now we are back to 1.078x ....have you change your mind? Now you have all the information on the table so: @goosebone To wrap up the week ...final question. Where are we rolling ? a. 1.078x b 1.0820 c. 1.075x d. No fck clue sisse
Neutral 1.7839 (a) no change of mind.
  • #147,494
  • Feb 3, 2017 2:54pm Feb 3, 2017 2:54pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Neutral 1.7839 (a) no change of mind.
Ok A 1.078x and that make the weekly close neutral for you ...finally we got the final answer ....

we'll talk in a few minutes to wrap up...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,495
  • Feb 3, 2017 3:03pm Feb 3, 2017 3:03pm
How come 1.078 close is neutral when it was the trigger to go short?
  • #147,496
  • Edited 3:16pm Feb 3, 2017 3:05pm | Edited 3:16pm
Quoting goosebone
Looking at the daily now let me try that again. Over 820 bullish (not expected) Under 820 (expected) bullish/neutral Under 780 (expected) neutral Under 750 (not expected) bearish My pick for the roll is a neutral 780
@sisse You got that answer 2 hours ago
  • #147,497
  • Feb 3, 2017 3:06pm Feb 3, 2017 3:06pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Idk. Points of control in the hands of bears vs bulls specific to time frame seem less like mythology and more like a good way to get the TA of that time frame understood while keeping it all in the FA frame of reference. But yes. Homework.
My point was, if you dont know relevance of level just skip it. No opinion. No matter of macros above it. FA macros are usually overfitting retrace entries(for micros) (eg bearish macro of 1.000 to 1.1000 and then fishing). Point being if you dont have pattern that you know of with decent performance dont force anything, just skip it, if sisse gives you levels to play with that you have no micro performance to track with you are mainly just roulette playing it. Closes by themselves (being higher or lower to X point) mean nothing without tracking real performance. He perhaps has something, but unless you backtracked it might have nothing on long term. It doesnt mean his levels are non valid, it just means you have a lot of noise on your side tracking something that is not valided on Z and Y scale with statistics if those levels are straight used in your positioning.
Never asumpt anything in trading, the last part of your post is essential, homework destroys the myths. But always put pattern in context otherwise its all just overfitting.
Logical expecations just do not work in trading a lot of time.
  • #147,498
  • Feb 3, 2017 3:12pm Feb 3, 2017 3:12pm
Quoting Fadhl
How come 1.078 close is neutral when it was the trigger to go short?
Well it wasn't my trigger to go short personally. But it could be I'm alone in seeing 780 as neutral. Here's why I see it that way:
700 to 780 represents a resistance zone from last week's candle. (Open to high) so, closing above that but below this week's high looks neutral to me. Bearish under that zone, bullish above it. Simple, probably too simple.
  • #147,499
  • Feb 3, 2017 3:25pm Feb 3, 2017 3:25pm
rolling
a. 1.078x neutral reason is we didn't take tuesday's 1.079
  • #147,500
  • Feb 3, 2017 3:35pm Feb 3, 2017 3:35pm
All week Bulls have won but failed this entire weekto take the .08xx handle.
253 traders viewing now