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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #3,081
  • Feb 3, 2017 9:57am Feb 3, 2017 9:57am
An other reason is the USDX. It tested above yesterday and went back inside its range: it could aim at yesterday low and consequently force cable in the opposite direction.
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  • #3,082
  • Feb 3, 2017 10:05am Feb 3, 2017 10:05am
Now we have 3 letters poc BCD. An other sign of lack of conviction. But also a new poor high: now we have 2 poor highs in a row (the upper one anyhow is still above the new gap, so it is currently "protected")
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  • #3,083
  • Feb 3, 2017 10:21am Feb 3, 2017 10:21am
Lock,

here we have a situation that we saw price broke out of the value....
and after time value expanded (or value went higher) so that all prices incl. the break is within value.

Well if we are in a trade then....would it say... be carefull is can a rotational environment now?!

In my perception...the break isn't a valid break anymore.... Am I correct?
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #3,084
  • Feb 3, 2017 10:23am Feb 3, 2017 10:23am
D is technically inside C: possible break from here. go with the break (if any) and monitor for continuation
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  • #3,085
  • Feb 3, 2017 10:24am Feb 3, 2017 10:24am
Quoting HappyMe
Lock, here we have a situation that we saw price broke out of the value.... and after time value expanded (or value went higher) so that all prices incl. the break is within value. Well if we are in a trade then....would it say... be carefull is can a rotational environment now?! In my perception...the break isn't a valid break anymore.... Am I correct?

Absolutely it could be a rotational environment: we have a lot of indications in that direction. And it was one of our 2 scenarios.
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  • #3,086
  • Feb 3, 2017 10:26am Feb 3, 2017 10:26am
The break is more valid if we left at least some pips clean above breakeven (double distribution trend day). The fact that now we do not have anymore pips clean above breakeven is an other negative factor.
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  • #3,087
  • Feb 3, 2017 10:43am Feb 3, 2017 10:43am
For now everything is indicating nothing more than a short covering of overnight activity. Only a substantial acceleration after the possible filling of the gap could change the situation eventually trasforming the current weak action in something more.

If not all is pointing to a rotational conclusion of this session.
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  • #3,088
  • Feb 3, 2017 10:55am Feb 3, 2017 10:55am
Remember that E period is the last one for London. After its close we will have only pit participants. And note E low exactly at GB unchanged/preUS open level 24905.
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  • #3,089
  • Feb 3, 2017 10:59am Feb 3, 2017 10:59am
PreUS B period high 2527 is the top of the news shakeout: all the remaining news stops are there. It could be part of this grinding covering action.
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  • #3,090
  • Feb 3, 2017 11:01am Feb 3, 2017 11:01am
Quoting Lock
PreUS B period high 2527 is the top of the news shakeout: all the remaining news stops are there. It could be part of this grinding covering action.

If it will take them out (those stops) people there could be forced to cover too.
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  • #3,091
  • Feb 3, 2017 11:01am Feb 3, 2017 11:01am
Quoting Lock
PreUS B period high 2527 is the top of the news shakeout: all the remaining news stops are there. It could be part of this grinding covering action.
That will say: if we overcome the PreUs B...there may be acceleration...


ps: btw I'm off ...need to cook our dinner for tonight Have a great weekend!!
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #3,092
  • Feb 3, 2017 11:02am Feb 3, 2017 11:02am
It could be.
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  • #3,093
  • Feb 3, 2017 11:03am Feb 3, 2017 11:03am
But note E inside D: attempted breakout above: if it will fail all the way back again to composite poc at least.
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  • #3,094
  • Feb 3, 2017 11:04am Feb 3, 2017 11:04am
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} That will say: if we overcome the PreUs B...there may be acceleration... ps: btw I'm off ...need to cook our dinner for tonight Have a great weekend!!
Well, have a wonderfull weekend and also a nice evening mr. chef!
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  • #3,095
  • Feb 3, 2017 11:08am Feb 3, 2017 11:08am
Gap filled. Now: acceleration or retracement.
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  • #3,096
  • Feb 3, 2017 11:16am Feb 3, 2017 11:16am
Anyway, I'm off too. At this hour of the evening I'm quite tired. Have a nice continuation and a very good holiday. Best, L.
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  • #3,097
  • Feb 3, 2017 1:14pm Feb 3, 2017 1:14pm
Quoting Lock
Gap filled. Now: acceleration or retracement.
Update: no acceleration, consequently, retracement.

And also:

Quoting Lock
But note E inside D: attempted breakout above: if it will fail all the way back again to composite poc at least.
The attempted breakout failed and here we are at the composite poc. (at the pip)
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  • #3,098
  • Edited 1:26am Feb 6, 2017 1:02am | Edited 1:26am
17/02/06 MONDAY 08:02+1GMT
EARLY MORNING REPORT

We are in a monthly balance, (price is back inside the inside month of November 2016 somewhere around the middle of its range and current month failed again above the breakeven at 2673) then we are in a weekly balance (last 2 weeks are overlapping) and we are in a daily bracket currently in a possible short term downside trend if Friday high (25375 GB high) will not be taken out by today.

The fact is that last action downside left above 2 double pass gaps (one pit at 25955-2613 and an ither GB at 25375-25665) and below these 2 consecutive zones we also have 3 poor highs in a row: 2 made by the last pit sessions at 25213 and 25645 and the other one made by last GB session at 25375. Furthermore we currently have also a poor high of tonight Tokyo at 2498.

So my opinion is that unless a new gap downside will accelerate the action towards the opposite side of November 2016 low (22043), we have big odds to to retrace upside in order to take out at least some of the underlined weaknesses above.

It must be said that we are balancing around a major composite poc (2480) and that in case of attempted break we need volume to evade this pole of attraction, otherwise the possibilities to come back to this level will be substantial. Higher nearest composite poc is at 2572 while lower closest composite poc is at 2417. Major valleys are above at 25498 and below at 2467.

It's important to note that Friday GB session is a double distribution one, so consider the single distributions as separate sessions. The upper one has a range limited by 25122-25375 while the lower one 24655-2505. Acceptation or rejection inside Friday GB range must be considered in relation to those separate ranges.

If, for what ever reason, it will decide to skip the weaknesses left above and break downside, remember that the nearest visible references for upcoming GB session are the poor low at 24115 and the bottom of the old GB gap upside at 23578: during this possible run we also have a previous Tokyo poor low at 2381. In this particular case remember also that 24436/7 is the first weekly balance high after the 02.10.16 break: it is a go/non go level.
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  • #3,099
  • Feb 6, 2017 6:35am Feb 6, 2017 6:35am
Quoting Lock
17/02/06 MONDAY 08:02+1GMT EARLY MORNING REPORT ..... It must be said that we are balancing around a major composite poc (2480) and that in case of attempted break we need volume to evade this pole of attraction, otherwise the possibilities to come back to this level will be substantial.....
As you see any attempted break in both directions has been retraced back to the composite poc at 2480: and his is very normal considering the weakness of this market.
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  • #3,100
  • Feb 6, 2017 6:37am Feb 6, 2017 6:37am
Note also that H is technically an inside period (inside G): so currently we are watching an other attempted breakout above. And again, we are exactly at the composite poc. Remember the balance rules: thay will apply here.
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