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The Really Useless Thread

  • #147,421
  • Feb 2, 2017 2:52am Feb 2, 2017 2:52am
Quoting Earleone
Just put in a small post now before FED . Will try to play the FED with Sell stop 1.0765 if 1.0775 is touched 25 pips SL and a second sell stop 1.0860 if 1.0870 is touched 25 pips SL. All is countertrend on 4H tf. I Expect hawkish FED. {image}
Stopped out during AS 25 pips SL.

USDX makes a LL , So my harmonic uptarget is also not valid anymore. Dont like it but it is how it is. Now to see if bottom of channel will hold.
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Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #147,422
  • Feb 2, 2017 5:46am Feb 2, 2017 5:46am
...and here we go for the BOE. All eyes on inflation now after Article 50 is a done deal and we are getting the details.

What is in play?. As widely anticipated Sterling unlocking the top of the neutral range in the mid term and the burden start to translating to UK Equities. All maps crystal clear in both Sterling and FTSE.

GL all

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,423
  • Feb 2, 2017 6:59am Feb 2, 2017 6:59am
Lots of data from the UK.

Slightly dovish BOE (a bit against expectations), and on the Article 50 we are set for full frontal trading and political 'war' with the EU. UK trying to cherry pick and have the cake and eat it too. It there wasn't Dutch/French/German elections in the upcoming months this will have been a lot easier to trade the flows short term.

Basically we are set for a very turbulent year in the UK with Sterling re re re confirmed in wide Neutral zone for the foreseeable future and UK equities just holding on a thin very thin layer of ice short term with a major uncertainty 'tsunami' worldwide coming directly to the island. It's going get very rough very soon but for now BOE was giving another meeting as buffer zone.


sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,424
  • Feb 2, 2017 7:20am Feb 2, 2017 7:20am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} if the u.s. doesn't enter WW3 during his tender, i will call it a win. well above my expectations.
As much I am trying to find a realistic glimmer of hope against it. I am sadly very much agree with you.

We are going very fast. Faster than I anticipated and all the ducks are aligning rather dangerously towards a major blow worldwide.

Not only populism, nationalism, protectionism and etc etc which are the indispensable base for major world conflict and global economic slowdown but if you see the forces currently grabbing power under table behind Trump and Brexit the UK, US and Russia as quick examples is terrifying.

The most intelligent and qualify people across all sectors from science, arts to the economy are raising major alerts and those are people that never talk daily politics, and we thet talk ....one better listen.

To put the cherry on top we have very scary lobotomisation of a big chunk of the population that in my opinion is completely blind what is happening (this another major requirement we have seen it in every case before a major blow up in the world)....

Despite the politics, markets are playing short term extreme greed especially now in the US, the top top top corporation are 'sleeping' with Trump and have hijacked all key position in government until the fiscal and party blow out pie is 'fairly' distribute between themselves ....it will last as long as the honeymoon is there and the big blow out bargain is available ....but they will run faster and further than anybody else when things will turn sour ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,425
  • Feb 2, 2017 7:59am Feb 2, 2017 7:59am
Quoting sisse
...clearing all short term positions manually from the FOMC/NFP... we are set to test the highs and the spike could extend for way too high to even consider sitting on it. For those trading the reverso, there is micro reverso 'roll play' today [very advanced play]-> 1.066x [check] with max extension 1.084x [check...although from as strictly TA sense crumbs left]
Eyes on the Euro reaching key levels. In general don't be a dick for a tick rules apply for 1.084x from the open but its Game set and match for those trading the Euro to the long side. Absolutely zero doubts and very well done to all longs in on one of the steepest pullback in years. We are completing 33 of the last 35 trading days with bulls in full control.


Dollar is siting in key 99.4x and here taking extreme precautions as a failure will trigger a WTF moment across the FX board. Active session all week and today Ny open is no exception.... until then same levels, same trades, same all...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,426
  • Feb 2, 2017 8:17am Feb 2, 2017 8:17am
sisses follow up. its early choose your poison ST and MT (the map is ST!). however, Im not playing now unless trump announces major fiscal package. otherwise it seems to me that with this political course we are gonna enter risk-off without having time to finish the short and mid term leg down. and that is gonna be huge mess on E/U via carry trade.
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  • #147,427
  • Feb 2, 2017 8:32am Feb 2, 2017 8:32am
Quoting chester123
sisses follow up. its early choose your poison ST and MT (the map is ST!). however, Im not playing now unless trump announces major fiscal package. otherwise it seems to me that with this political course we are gonna enter risk-off without having time to finish the short and mid term leg down. and that is gonna be huge mess on E/U via carry trade. {image}
MT we're in choose your position time since a last couple of weeks. ST there is nothing to see until tomorrow [or a tweet]. FED flows are in play since yesterday...Triple whammy for the W close...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,428
  • Feb 2, 2017 8:55am Feb 2, 2017 8:55am
the way it is moving in short term any position will need a s/l of 200 pips and what i think that will also be less for a safe play .....

already got burnt a few times in this flow .... so playing very systematic and safe
Re-Incarnated
  • #147,429
  • Edited 9:11am Feb 2, 2017 9:00am | Edited 9:11am
Sidelines. Nothing looks bearish EU to me without zooming in too close for comfort. DXY in a precarious spot. NFP tomorrow. I see nothing but risk for a EU bear so far today.
  • #147,430
  • Feb 2, 2017 9:41am Feb 2, 2017 9:41am
Quoting sisse
{quote} MT we're in choose your position time since a last couple of weeks. ST there is nothing to see until tomorrow [or a tweet]. FED flows are in play since yesterday...Triple whammy for the W close... sisse
Maybe 3 and a half with french elections in turmoil for a few days now, though it's still far (April 23rd and May 7th) :

Front-runner Fillon (Right wing) in a huge fake jobs scandal (falling in polls, 19% now (and counting)), Moderate socialists destroyed at the left-wing primary, Extrem-Right (national-socialism) and Extrem-Left (hard socialists+communists) very healthy (both @ 25%) , White knight Macron (Centrist, 22%) seems the only one to prevent France from falling into chaos but his inexperience, his youth and his very volatile electorate may hamper him.

Scariest scenarios for the second round :
- Extrem-Left Vs Extrem-Right : If hard socialists ally with communists, it's a done deal. Whatever the result it will be a drama for France and Europe. Welcome IMF.
- Unworthy/rotten Fillon Vs Extrem-Right : Disgusted french people may not gather behind Fillon to defeat Extrem-Right as they usually do, triggerring also a drama.

Too early to call yet but one thing is certain : uncertainty has seriously increased.
  • #147,431
  • Feb 2, 2017 12:21pm Feb 2, 2017 12:21pm
What's to rule out or lock .097x? The BOE Dovish? I'm still not convinced it won't be tested.

I had a sell limit at .0835 that didn't get hit. Still waiting.
  • #147,432
  • Feb 2, 2017 12:21pm Feb 2, 2017 12:21pm
Uneventful US session with only highlight in Oil and commodities in general preparing for a feast with Trump helping hand and with the biggest OIL companies across the world in complete control of US foreign policy. Actively looking to build positions but Dollar jitters are making a bit of mess to do it for now.

Tillerson CV/Resume is nothing but telling on what is cooking in the next few months (For those very unaware the new secretary of State background: head of Exxon Mobil worked for the company in the US, Yemen and Russia... a no brainer really].

On the FX front Dollar lots of core action happening at key areas. Sterling* lossing ground in the wide range after a unexpected dovish BOE, Dollar fighting at key FA 99.4x and Euro starting to cough at the current highs.

Tracking very closely the FX close today.

sisse

Quoting Replicant
{quote} Maybe 3 and a half with french elections in turmoil for a few days now, .....
Yeap French political circus is on the calendar but thats for later in the year. There is so many risk factors coming into play in the very short term that what it should be one of the next highlights to track for the Euro looks rather far ...

Quoting goosebone
Sidelines. Nothing looks bearish EU to me without zooming in too close for comfort. DXY in a precarious spot. NFP tomorrow. I see nothing but risk for a EU bear so far today.
What make you say that?

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,433
  • Feb 2, 2017 12:47pm Feb 2, 2017 12:47pm
What is Your outlook in oil ..Feast..You mean break up.
  • #147,434
  • Feb 2, 2017 12:53pm Feb 2, 2017 12:53pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} As much I am trying to find a realistic glimmer of hope against it. I am sadly very much agree with you. We are going very fast. Faster than I anticipated and all the ducks are aligning rather dangerously towards a major blow worldwide. Not only populism, nationalism, protectionism and etc etc which are the indispensable base for major world conflict and global economic slowdown but if you see the forces currently grabbing power under table behind Trump and Brexit the UK, US and Russia as quick examples is terrifying. The most intelligent...
like i said thousands of times. like most leaders in history who grabbed power. first they create a wolf fake or real, but most times fake. they blame the wolf for all their ills. the gullible peasants grab a torch and a pitchfork. they put on some jackboots and march. its usually against a weaker group of people unable to defend themselves, sometimes race sometimes religion. sometimes a splinter of the people. its has to be in the human dna. even street gangs have a north or south side. from there it gets smaller to block by block. we are all the offspring of the winners. we are all offspring of rapist and pillagers. the winners right the history books. and we are all within a few generations of gnawing on the bones of the dead. we got an idiot leading the blind. he needs a catchphrase like hi Hitler. i will be in one of the early boxcars because i tell it like the past predicts.

the sad part is.. most Americans are living in a larger house than their parents or grandparents. yet they were lead to believe things sucked.. let them send their sons to defend bs.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #147,435
  • Feb 2, 2017 1:04pm Feb 2, 2017 1:04pm
Quoting sisse
What make you say that? sisse

Well, when I wrote that EU was trading 817 just over last two days high (really since 870 high) and didn't show me any real signs of giving up even with decent resistance levels around. Didn't look to me like a sensible place/time to enter short given some action possible tomorrow. So I guess I meant for potential short entry not just bullish on eu in general or anything. I may regret not taking a trade on today's high. It honestly looked at the time of my post like if I had jumped in there it would have been another "what's the rush?" moment. And NFP might be another "Look where we are again, no surprises there." moment. Now that daily starts to look like I may have missed my chance. If there's a bounce back towards 800 I'll think about it. If it's too late, well fuck it.
  • #147,436
  • Feb 2, 2017 1:23pm Feb 2, 2017 1:23pm
I do not think it is too late to take short position. Like Sisse said today morning the flow for NFP is happening and it is clear in EUR and GBP. So far it looks like both will have a bearish close. I am a little surprised with Gold. I was expecting Gold to have similar action as EUR because the flow in Gold should also follow tomorrow's NFP anticipation.
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Well, when I wrote that EU was trading 817 just over last two days high (really since 870 high) and didn't show me any real signs of giving up even with decent resistance levels around. Didn't look to me like a sensible place/time to enter short given some action possible tomorrow. So I guess I meant for potential short entry not just bullish on eu in general or anything. I may regret not taking a trade on today's high. It honestly looked at the time of my post like if I had jumped in there it would have been another "what's the rush?" moment....
  • #147,437
  • Feb 2, 2017 1:27pm Feb 2, 2017 1:27pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Well, when I wrote that EU was trading 817 just over last two days high (really since 870 high) and didn't show me any real signs of giving up even with decent resistance levels around. Didn't look to me like a sensible place/time to enter short given some action possible tomorrow. So I guess I meant for potential short entry not just bullish on eu in general or anything. I may regret not taking a trade on today's high. It honestly looked at the time of my post like if I had jumped in there it would have been another "what's the rush?" moment....
No need to be in doubt, you have a plan, just becouse price is in area where you want to short it it doesnt mean you have to jump a gun, your fishing for it which is good way to go about. I agree with your short term / micro view, nothing to see (even though we are in desired area). Give it some time to see what it has. Just becouse one wants to short 080X it doesnt mean 079X smells bad.
  • #147,438
  • Feb 2, 2017 1:27pm Feb 2, 2017 1:27pm
Quoting Xxavier
I do not think it is too late to take short position. Like Sisse said today morning the flow for NFP is happening and it is clear in EUR and GBP. So far it looks like both will have a bearish close. I am a little surprised with Gold. I was expecting Gold to have similar action as EUR because the flow in Gold should also follow tomorrow's NFP anticipation. {quote}
Might be right. Did you short?
  • #147,439
  • Edited 1:51pm Feb 2, 2017 1:40pm | Edited 1:51pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Well, when I wrote that EU was trading 817 just over last two days high (really since 870 high) and didn't show me any real signs of giving up even with decent resistance levels around. Didn't look to me like a sensible pla....

Why so defensive ... I just asked why? ...just part of the iteration ...as you see I wanted to [miss]lead you to this answer. ...

How can you change/make opinions in 4 hours intraday moves. My points is and was if you decided to 'choose your poison' as we discussed yesterday on the FED flow play, you should have already decided your trade in advance not by today intraday action. The test of highs or the current micro session intraday flow should / has to be irrelevant !!!! for your trading as you have:

--> Your capital risk -> macro direction defined -> Short term map defined -> Your max risk -> Your position size --> Proper leverage and max capital risk positioning -> Max reward -> Same outlook FA and TA with a clear Timing area -> Your actual FA trigger for the play and --> already the initial knee jerk reaction

What this mean is that either you have become trigger shy, or you are full of doubts or maybe you think this area is completely irrelevant for a short/mid or news flow trade (do you?)....

You didn't choose a public side in the iteration which is fine as its irrelevant for this conversation but I gave you 2 options (whatever other entries you may have)

-> Either you went long on the break back up 1.080x which by now you should be already locked and loaded or
-> You go short on the simple rejection on price entry we discussed which you should be tracking like a hawk in case we lose 1.073x on the close (btw, I don't expect so...)

So just for the sake of the conversation and now that you have a LOT MORE information both FA and TA wise I am asking you again but this time I will limit the playing field so you feel more comfortable (like we did in the early round of iteration to talk about the basics)

Question 10:

-> Long 1.080x -> STP 1.070x -> TP1 1.098x -> TP2 1.108x
or
-> Short 1.078x -> STP 1.088x -> TP1 1.0680 -> TP2 1.058x

You don't have to call it openly if you think it will influence your actual real trading...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,440
  • Feb 2, 2017 1:54pm Feb 2, 2017 1:54pm
Yes, I am short GBP, EUR and Gold. I am comfortable with EUR and GBP so far.... Not so much with Gold...
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Might be right. Did you short?
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