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"Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade." Summary 37 replies

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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #24,621
  • Feb 2, 2017 3:30am Feb 2, 2017 3:30am
Quoting kelvinyun
{quote} Nice! That was a 30 pip move! AJ.JPG;2168676 Better think of getting out now LOL! Failed to make NSH. TBH I'm learning from not only Damian, and you, and these seniors such as Mack2013 rocky ujku80 evocpr19 harmonic1976, so its really helpful.. going through these thousands of pages are never boring, and all the charts posted are real live trades from real professional traders. Seeing how you guys formulated a plan, entered, reacted, and exited. {image}
Thanks

I will wait to hit the target or breakeven , price tend to do waves but my gaols always to hit the target or breakeven . by doing this the account grow and also I got very high win ratio .as each win hit the target is equal to three loss
  • #24,622
  • Feb 2, 2017 3:42am Feb 2, 2017 3:42am
Quoting Arvs7
Got one trade USDJPY +27 Maybe someone have some ideas why i shouldn't take this trade. USDJPY1.PNG;2168777 My expectation was NSL (target 1:1 previous swing) or at least retest of structure SL above 61.8 Sorry for english. second language. {image}
Good trade , but for me will take it by doing more retracement as NSL B was not that deep far to NSL A so we expect price will retrace deeper than 38% level ,
Orange circle in chart is good entry :
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  • #24,623
  • Feb 2, 2017 4:21am Feb 2, 2017 4:21am
This is something coming up frequently where it's still not clear to me.
In specific cases where price is approaching a HTF support/resistance demand/supply zone, it is key to detect early expectation changes.
But in some cases it's not so clear, like this one, where price retraces to a 38.6% fib making a valid swing, but the clear high/low is farther away.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I personally would consider the higher level, but not sure how Damian would approach this.
Thanks for any comment.
the 3rd wave is the crowd's wave
  • #24,624
  • Feb 2, 2017 4:30am Feb 2, 2017 4:30am
Hi kelvinyun, yes a point was pretty agressive since it was going against expectation. I'm still novice and still learning about structures so I'm going with conservative trades.. when I increase my skills surely I'm going to trade more agressively in some situations reducing the risk with tighter stops.. both answers were good but as you said, we should stay with expectation since we are newbies thanks for your thoughts!
There is no justice for the weak
  • #24,625
  • Feb 2, 2017 4:46am Feb 2, 2017 4:46am
NZDUSD 5m possible long if price makes a good rotation in one of these zones:
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HTF is up and price engulfed into free space, I think we can expect another leg up.
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the 3rd wave is the crowd's wave
  • #24,626
  • Feb 2, 2017 4:50am Feb 2, 2017 4:50am
Quoting juriFX
This is something coming up frequently where it's still not clear to me. In specific cases where price is approaching a HTF support/resistance demand/supply zone, it is key to detect early expectation changes. But in some cases it's not so clear, like this one, where price retraces to a 38.6% fib making a valid swing, but the clear high/low is farther away. uj 5m swing qst.png;2168922 I personally would consider the higher level, but not sure how Damian would approach this. Thanks for any comment. {image}
Hi juriFX.

Looking at the higher time frame chart it is mainly in a down direction but it is also now in a range which the short term order flow is going between.
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So as the price is approaching the bottom of that range you have to look then at the bars and see if you can see the strength of the bulls or the bears.
Lokking at it a little close it looks like the bears are pushing fairly hard down to the area and only time will see if that pressure is enough to make a solid breakout or if the bears start losing momentum as it gets there.
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As for your chart if you are trading the short term order flow then that was a pull back to fib level and a small bit of structure to the left too.

Hope that helps
Oh Crap I've done it again
  • #24,627
  • Feb 2, 2017 5:25am Feb 2, 2017 5:25am
Quoting juriFX
This is something coming up frequently where it's still not clear to me. In specific cases where price is approaching a HTF support/resistance demand/supply zone, it is key to detect early expectation changes. But in some cases it's not so clear, like this one, where price retraces to a 38.6% fib making a valid swing, but the clear high/low is farther away. uj 5m swing qst.png;2168922 I personally would consider the higher level, but not sure how Damian would approach this. Thanks for any comment. {image}
Not sure but today I can't see it clearly, another one:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu 5m.png Size: 70 KB

I'm short biased now because to me that HL which got broken was the important one and we made a NSL, but the one with the arrow makes me insure though.

Sorry, hope I'm not confusing others too

Quoting oh.crap
{quote} Hi juriFX. Looking at the higher time frame chart it is mainly in a down direction but it is also now in a range which the short term order flow is going between. Screenshot1.png;2168971 So as the price is approaching the bottom of that range you have to look then at the bars and see if you can see the strength of the bulls or the bears. Lokking at it a little close it looks like the bears are pushing fairly hard down to the area and only time will see if that pressure is enough to make a solid breakout or if the bears start losing momentum as it gets there. Screenshot2.png;2168984 As for your chart if you are trading the short term order flow then that was a pull back to fib level and a small bit of structure to the left too. Hope that helps {image} {image}
Thanks, I understand that the context can help to assess. Still, my specific question is, what is the technical (mechanical) correct way to handle swings, do we pick the obvious high/low or do we have to account for swings that are able to correct to a 38.6% RT (which makes them a swing on their own).
the 3rd wave is the crowd's wave
  • #24,628
  • Feb 2, 2017 6:02am Feb 2, 2017 6:02am
Quoting juriFX
{quote} Not sure but today I can't see it clearly, another one: gu 5m.png;2169044 I'm short biased now because to me that HL which got broken was the important one and we made a NSL, but the one with the arrow makes me insure though. Sorry, hope I'm not confusing others too {quote} Thanks, I understand that the context can help to assess. Still, my specific question is, what is the technical (mechanical) correct way to handle swings, do we pick the obvious high/low or do we have to account for swings that are able to correct to a 38.6%...
I suppose it really depends if you are trading the short term order flow or the long term order flow.

Short term you use the lower high
Long term you use the main high
Oh Crap I've done it again
  • #24,629
  • Feb 2, 2017 7:11am Feb 2, 2017 7:11am
Quoting juriFX
{quote} Not sure but today I can't see it clearly, another one: gu 5m.png;2169044 I'm short biased now because to me that HL which got broken was the important one and we made a NSL, but the one with the arrow makes me insure though. Sorry, hope I'm not confusing others too {quote} Thanks, I understand that the context can help to assess. Still, my specific question is, what is the technical (mechanical) correct way to handle swings, do we pick the obvious high/low or do we have to account for swings that are able to correct to a 38.6%...
Hi juriFX (http://www.forexfactory.com/jurifx)

answers to your Q in the chart illstration i made here , Mr. Pip can correct me if i miss somthing :
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  • #24,630
  • Feb 2, 2017 7:15am Feb 2, 2017 7:15am
Quoting marwan71
{quote} Hi juriFX (http://www.forexfactory.com/jurifx) answers to your Q in the chart illstration i made here , Mr. Pip can correct me if i miss somthing : {image}
As you can see now what price did , for swing XA breakeven hit
For swing 1-2 all targits hits

Ofcourse entery trigger was not good but price did exactley as per harmonic rules
  • #24,631
  • Feb 2, 2017 7:46am Feb 2, 2017 7:46am
situation for YM right before news:
no question that bears are the dominant species here. poor bulls are getting slaughtered and ending up as food to bears. Notice how the bears are increasing in strength (see slope of the second move vs that of first move). However, we have an almost 1/1 harmonic move (completed at 127.1 ext) to the downside (blue lines). Therefore, it could be smart to wait for maybe a bit deeper PB. Personally I wouldn't hesitate to take a trade at 78.6% PB of the recent move (if we're so lucky to see price come to that level).

That's all folks. All u need to do is keep your eyes opened, your bows and arrows ready. It's hunting time and the forest is fulls with animals. So, don't complain about lack of food. green pips to all
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  • #24,632
  • Feb 2, 2017 8:17am Feb 2, 2017 8:17am
Hello Traders,

Very interesting discussions over night about finding your way through complicated price swings. Seems that this is becoming a bit of a struggle for a few so I'm going to put something together to address this issue.

I understand that seeing a clear path for price in consolidating markets can be challenging some times. I will make a video on this as I want this to be a lesson that you can visit and revisit as many times as you need.

There are a couple of things that will keep your path clear almost every time. Sometimes you just need more information because you may be in the process of establishing a new expectation but for the most part your path should be clear.

1. Identify the long, intraday and short term order flow.

2. Which order flow are you looking to trade?

3. What is the expectation of that order flow?

4. Address the shorter term order flow. Is it in alignment with the order flow I am looking to trade?

I will cover this in a video that I will make for you all today at some point.

I will also catch up on the thread. Some of the most recent post I will not answer directly because it will be covered in the video lesson.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #24,633
  • Feb 2, 2017 8:21am Feb 2, 2017 8:21am
I am long on YM (entry protected), although bulls looks not really strong

Update: taken out
  • #24,634
  • Feb 2, 2017 8:27am Feb 2, 2017 8:27am
Well let's see what the YM has in store for us today. With no major scheduled volatility the market will run on it's own steam today. The market is still in decline and the expectation is for a NSL. The bulls are trying to recover but the bears have greater volume and the short term order flow has aligned itself with the longer term order flow.

There are buyers in the area of 750 - 740 and an intraday ABCD has completed. It's important for the buyers to take price above 790 and the intraday expectation is a NSH. Volume in the bar by bar will help us asses if the intraday expectation is strong or weak. At this point in time that expectation is average as the bulls are trying to consume some of the bears more aggressive volume.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #24,635
  • Feb 2, 2017 8:33am Feb 2, 2017 8:33am
Quoting evocpr19
I am long on YM (entry protected), although bulls looks not really strong Update: taken out
what, speedy gonzales? first why did u go long? second, if' u're trading short term and u went long, why did u get stopped out? where was you SL? It should have been at least below the recent swing, which is around 730. price didn't go there yet. to be extremely aggressive, u could have moved now to 740 below the second little swing. when price goes to about 800 then, u're BE and maybe taking profit there.
  • #24,636
  • Feb 2, 2017 8:41am Feb 2, 2017 8:41am
Quoting ujku80
{quote} what, speedy gonzales? first why did u go long? second, if' u're trading short term and u went long, why did u get stopped out? where was you SL? It should have been at least below the recent swing, which is around 730. price didn't go there yet. to be extremely aggressive, u could have moved now to 740 below the second little swing. when price goes to about 800 then, u're BE and maybe taking profit there.
I entered at a rubbish place and against expectation, so either it goes through or not. This is the reasons why I protect my entry. It went up +7 and came back.
  • #24,637
  • Feb 2, 2017 8:43am Feb 2, 2017 8:43am
Looking to get short soon. but the bulls may be trying to get more aggressive let's see.
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If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #24,638
  • Feb 2, 2017 8:45am Feb 2, 2017 8:45am
Around 800 -810
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If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #24,639
  • Feb 2, 2017 8:45am Feb 2, 2017 8:45am
Quoting evocpr19
{quote} I entered at a rubbish place and against expectation, so either it goes through or not. This is the reasons why I protect my entry. It went up +7 and came back.
it's fine. I was just kidding. there was in principle a reason to go long because of the completion of harmonic moves. and now u see that in the short term the bulls are sort of gaining strength.
  • #24,640
  • Feb 2, 2017 8:47am Feb 2, 2017 8:47am
Might have missed the short
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If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
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