Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

From My Post 1681 and My Reply To Dave.

Another excellent question from Dave that I will post my answer on my thread now.

Hi Benjamin,

Thank you for your quick response! So, if I am correct in my understanding, money flow into/out-of CAC and DAX will correlate with money flow into/out-of the EURO, money flow into/out-of the FTSE will correlate with money flow into/out-of the GBP, and money flow into/out-of the DOW will correlate with the USD and JPY (low yield currencies) and into the higher yield currencies such as the AUD and NZD.

What about CAD since its a commodity currency? Would you look at oil prices to determine money flow with CAD? And AUD? Wow! How well does the fundamental analysis correlate with price moves in the currencies?

Thank you for such an eye opening awareness of what moves the currency markets!

Dave

Comments from Benjaminis: I train people on this thread through the use of a FXCM UK $50,000 US Dollars Demo Account so Forex traders can learn properly without the EMOTIONS of FEAR AND GREED.

In order to answer Dave's questions , I mention this because the following 18 symbols are on the trading platform in 3 rows of 6 symbols.

The first 6 are all currency pairs. EUR/USD EUR/JPY USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CNH USD/CHF

The second 6 are as follows; EUR/CHF AUD/USD USD/CAD US Dollar (123.53) XAU/USD XAG/USD

The last 6 are as follows; US 30 NAS100 SPX500 Copper UKOil Bund

There you go my friend and everyone else reading this post.

From My Post 1711 and My Request To KeepCalmfx.

Quoting KeepCalmfx
I took a few losses last week. Not a good feeling, but it is part of trading, cost of doing business. I had a total of 8 positions today, all positions closed now with total profit of $2 116. {image}
Great Work, KeepCalmfx

Perhaps later on today or whenever you have the time to review and reflect on your experiences since December 27, 2016 which was 34 days ago or 5 weeks tomorrow.

You can share with everyone that comes to our thread that I started on December 3, 2016 which is 58 days ago and our joint experience together after 86 pages of text was produced by many here who have shared and posted here.

I have accomplished my GOAL which was to confirm that what I have learned in the last 14 years of training and education, that I taught myself could be taught to others.

The numbers that KeepCalmfx achieved is beyond even my expectations and confirms that for the right Forex traders that have an open mind and are willing to look at Forex trading in a completely different way then there are no limits to success.

This has been a most rewarding experience for me as everyone wants to be able to have confirmation of their knowledge and maybe earn some respect which on Forex Factory is more difficult to achieve for the normal human nature reasons.

I thank everyone here who has been helpful to me for their cooperation.


Benjaminis

I see my friend online now , piphunting so I can now share my thoughts about what I read on most of the posts on the most active thread on Forex Factory , EUR/USD in the last few minutes.

I do not like it when anyone loses money trading Forex even if they are perfect strangers, however it makes it so very very clear why 95% of all RETAIL Forex Traders lose trading Forex.

You CANNOT JUST TRADE OFF of Charts and if somehow you can, great.

However it is just not the way to go and yet I am sure that even if many on the EUR/USD thread came here it would not change much for most of them.

The only reason that I continue on with these points of view is that it confirms my strongest view and WHY , I KNOW, that to do my job properly I need to see how someone trades their demo account.

Our BEST STUDENT, as the results show is KeepCalmfx and the way that the efforts were put in showed me that only with desire and work and discipline which is what I surely have, then most Forex traders should just move on to other things unless they want to learn the proper way to make money in the Forex business.

Otherwise they will most likely continue to lose money and keep dreaming that one day that they will find their HOLY GRAIL, which unfortunately does not exist and will never exist unless you believe in Peter Pan and Santa Claus.

From Post 1635 - The Commentary From KeepCalmfx...

 

1. Post 1,735
2. Cleanup
3. Quote
4. Jan 31, 8:36am (10 hr ago)

1. http://cdn.assets.forexfactory.net/n...ar496005_1.gif KeepCalmfx
2. | Joined Oct 2016 | Status: Member | 218 Posts

Quoting BenjaminIs
{quote} Great Work, KeepCalmfx Perhaps later on today or whenever you have the time to review and reflect on your experiences since December 27, 2016 which was 34 days ago or 5 weeks tomorrow. You can share with everyone that comes to our thread that I started on December 3, 2016 which is 58 days ago and our joint experience together after 86 pages of text was produced by many here who have shared and posted here. I have accomplished my GOAL which was to confirm that what I have learned in the last 14 years of training and education, that I taught...


Here is my feedback on my experiences since December 27.

I will not lie, at first I was overwhelm with all of this new information, articles to read to absorb and to understand. It was very difficult for me as I only know very little about the economics. I also did not truly understand the basic jargon.

I decided to take it day for day, as I knew that you cannot be a consistent successful trader only focusing on the technical aspect of trading. I made a promise to myself to be open minded and follow this different way of thinking/trading and to do my best to learn as much as I can for the next 3 months. I had nothing to lose and a huge desire to become a consistent profitable trader.

So I started to only read the morning thoughts and evening wrap ups on the thread, then while I was doing that I started to study the basics of economic, what is a bond and interest rates, what is the monetary policy and fiscal policy, what is inflation and how these things relate to each other and also effect each other. It was hard just to get my head around it, but with time it got easier. Then I got my head around the money flow and perception vs reality or the fact, the bigger picture.

I started to understand more each week. By reading the posts from page 1, the words/jargon became more familiar and I could understand the articles/posts better. I still go back to my notes each day when I read new articles/post. Also at times when Benjamin explained how the money flow works it got easier to understand, I picked up something different each time.

I think that people struggle to get their head around this way of trading, because they are set in their own ways, routines and beliefs. In the beginning it is hard work, you have to study these article so you can understand what is being said. You have to know how everything fits in together and you have to be open minded and think in a new way. You must accept this new way of thinking and this all gets easier with your results you get when trading this way.

Last week I made a few losses, I knew the main direction of the trend, but I was not patient enough to wait for it to be risk off before entering on some of the trades and they hit my SL as a result. Other trades just didnt work out, luckily we use a very good money management plan. And not all of our trades will be winners. Every day you have to work on your patience and have the discipline to follow the trading plan. I also like that we only focus on a few instruments, that way you get to learn that particular instrument. I mainly focused on US30 and JPY our 1st 2 trade plans.

Fundamentals drive the market, Technical time the market and perception change the direction of the markets even if the fundamentals have not changed.

In my opinion the way Benjamin teach is great in getting the bigger picture and then trading according to that. I also think our trading plan works, you must just follow it with discipline and have patients with the results. The best way to learn and practice patience and discipline is when trading and what better way to do that as on a Demo account, were you also learn not to be greedy or to trade with fear and ego.

I still have a lot to learn about the markets, being more discipline and having more patience, but it is a process and all you can do is to give it your best each day.

From Post 1388 - KeepCalmfx

 

1. http://cdn.assets.forexfactory.net/n...ar496005_1.gif KeepCalmfx
2. | Joined Oct 2016 | Status: Member | 218 Posts

Quoting BenjaminIs
I just came across the chart and analysis from Admirial Markets and since it fits into the strong views and knowledge that I shared last night on this page 69 of our thread on Money Flow Method and Risk Management while other technical systems like Pivot Points or Supply and Demand would allow for more knowledgeable Forex traders that also know how to control risk and trade with more than $5000 US Dollars can make money trading as long as they can also control and deal with their fear and greed and last however not least, their EGO. There cannot...


Hi Benjamin

I agree with you, this is a very good charts. The Elliot wave and other patterns can help, but you cannot be a technical trader alone. You need to know the bigger picture, the fact from the perception. Earlier today the market was going on perception of the news and reporters what they want to believe. Currently we have Risk off, we know the reality, the facts and will be ready for the BIG move.

I also agree that it is very difficult to trade with a small account and have a consistent profit each month, without wanting to fear and trying hard the fear just kicks in and your emotions takes over on a small account.

I also have found the 25 myths very informative.
People have the perception that you can get rich quick with forex, that trading forex is easy, no hard work to do, just press buy or sell and w-h-a-l-a you will be rich.
They think you can play with a small account, trade big lots without having a plan or using correct risk management, then they hit a winning streak or gets lucky, add more funds and before you know you are making loss after loss, fear sets in, ego of being right, feeling of the markets ows you and before you know your account has been wiped. Or they do not have experience, then they go to blogs/forums hoping someone else would make them rich quick, by following other traders tips who dont even know a thing and also lose their funds.

There is no easy way, Holy Grail or computer/system/robot trading you can use to get a consistent 10% profit each and every month. People want to trade like it is a hobby, not taking it serious, but want to get the rewards of someone making trading their business.
Trading is a business, it is hard to start a business you have to work hard the 1st few years, put allot of hours in, be disciplined, determined, have goals, be patient and have a routine, a plan and follow it every day, does not matter how hard it gets, sometimes you may want to give up, but you have to press on.
In the past when trading Demo accounts I was very careless and would have closed and open positions as I think was right or if I added a position and it goes against me I would have closed it because it is not real money, you can start over right. I could not even get consistent 5% profit with a demo account, I had no discipline and patients.
It is very hard to be patient and have discipline, I wanted to give up many times, thinking who are you kidding, you will never be a consistent profitable trader. Once I stopped for a year, but I started over again. I still struggle with it each day, but I am doing my best to tame these devils. Lol. But this will also take time. And the discipline should become part of your routine.

I have been treating these 2 accounts the last 3 weeks as if it was someone elses live accounts. I will not lie, it was hard work so far. I use to go to bed before 10 pm each night and wake up at 7am. The last 3 weeks I went to bed after 11pm and woke up before 6am. It is very hard in the beginning to be disciplined with anything new. You have to have the desire to succeed, the vision of what you want to achieve, then you must be patient for the results to start to show and it gets a bit easier each day.
A lot can still happen before my 1st month is over, today I took a loss in both accounts, but that is just the cost of doing business. So far this experience, all of the new knowledge, way of thinking, new possibilities has been a very pleasant journey, and is worth every hour I have put in so far, because I know the rewards at the end of achieving my goals would be amazing. And off course Benjamin gets a lot of credit for all of his hard work helping us all.

Becoming successful in trading is like a river that have many little streams/sub-branches, flowing slowly at first (All the learning of the different aspects in trading the markets, time spend, sacrifices made moving slowly, to slow sometimes) then all of a sudden this little streams/sub-branches gets together one by one and becomes stronger (the light bulb go on, you get an aha moment, get into routine of good habits, trading gets easier and it becomes fun) and then this little streams forms this huge fast river with rapids without no stopping (goals you achieve, little successes you make) and explodes out into a waterfall.. Free. (Success at last!) This river with sub streams can go on for km and km, and you dont know when this little streams will become one big river and explodes to the next chapter in your life. You must just do your best each day every day and have faith that you will eventually get there

Off to bed now.

From My Post 1403

 

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 1,450 Posts | Online Now

Quoting wayfarer
Good day to all! Recently, my loss. Mainly for DOU30. Do not have time to take profits, just never traded indices and bonds. Features of behavior of asset demand to constantly monitor the monitor. So far, I have not time, we will learn. Waiting movements on technical analysis on DOU30 Screenshot_34.png;2148242 {image}
Hello wayfarer

Thanks for the channel chart.

Here is one of the keys to your trading especially when you cannot focus because of other matters that take your attention away.

To start since I have reviewed your Forex trading since December 27, 2016. For the moment we are only trading Trade Plan One and Trade Plan Two. Some of your losses have been in Gold. We trade always firstly with our two best trade plans. Now to Trade Plan Number One which is to SHORT 100 Units of US 30.

You SHORT it when it nears the TOP of the Trading Range. That is your first position. MAXIMUM LOSS is 2%. You must enter your STOP LOSS and not change it so your maximum LOSS is $1000 US Dollars.

I shorted 100 units of US 30 this morning at 8:28 AM EST and I have a DRAW DOWN now of $650 US. I put on my second position of 100 units of US 30 at 10:03 AM and now have a DRAW DOWN of $60 US Dollars at this moment. I have entered LIMIT OUTS for both positions. One will give me profits of $1515 US Dollars and the other one will be $1005 US Dollars. That was for my 100 units of US 30 SHORT done at 10:03 AM.

That is it. Go on holiday for three days. That is as simple as I can make it.

THE KEY was to have determined the Trend and then back it up with the Risk Management.

The CHARTS only give us our ENTRY POINTS. The fundamentals let us distinguish between PERCEPTION (Present Markets) and REALITY (Future Markets)

The MONEY FLOW IS AUTOMATIC and OUR EDGE.

Do not make this more complicated than that because it is not. The hardest work has already be done by most of you. Now you understand so just follow the RULES with DISCIPLINE !!!


Benjaminis

From my Post 1471 and That Is My Work For Today.

The Wrap Up - Nightly

 

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 |

For New Readers From Post 1471 - Money Flow Method with Risk Management.

I post this again so there is NO DOUBT on How To Trade Forex and Earn Money and Protect Your Capital.

Once again , I try hard for everyone to understand all the parts that would guarantee your success if you have the necessary skills and DISCIPLINE. I can not guarantee that you do however I will know for sure by your Forex Trading results. It is up to you not myself as I have done my part and at least three of our Forex Traders are learning well. The three that are working on it and participating. IT IS THAT SIMPLE and that has too be clear so JUST DO IT !!!


Benjaminis

I first want to talk about having an EDGE. Fundamentals by themselves is not an EDGE. However using Money Flow between Asset Classes from here on I will include in my basket of 100% of what a winning Forex Trader needs. I will not refer to it as a fundamental anymore since new people coming to this thread put my method as including Money Flow as a fundamental which it actually is however not in the same way as most people understand Fundamentals.

This week we will get to see Non Farm Payroll (N F P) and as any experienced Fundamental Forex Trader knows it usually is a fantasy number created by the BLS however next to a FED rate announcement it is the one number that can move markets hundreds of PIPS in seconds and minutes.

Whatever the number Trillions of Fiat Currencies and other Asset Classes will start to change values as we "SEE" the Money Flow. That is why I call it my EDGE and once you know it and understand it well then it becomes your EDGE as well.

Here are the 5 important things that any Forex Trader that belongs to the minority of constant profitable Forex Traders , which I have named , The 5% Club needs to have. Of course in my opinion, I would think that very few Professional Forex Traders use the EDGE. Of course when you know about it then anyone can use it.

Each of the following five important things which I have given a weighting of 20% to each makes up what a profitable Forex Trader needs to have in order of IMPORTANCE.

(1) The ability of the Forex Trader to control their FEAR and their GREED and their EGO. Perhaps the last one is the most important of the three since the MARKET is always right. Using Money Flow puts you with the Market instead of against it as your Forex Account keeps losing the value in it.

The reason that I teach Forex Traders whether experienced or new to Forex trading with a $50,000 US Dollars Demo Account is because that is how I learned my trade starting during 2003. By learning to trade with $50,000 US Dollars in Demo Funds, then I had no FEAR or GREED. However after 3 years of Forex Demo Trading I surely had EGO since month in and month out my Return On Investment (ROI) was constantly over 10% a month or 120% a year.

(2) Money Flow. I have now explained why.

(3) Risk Management. That is next to Money Flow the KEY element of my Forex Trading since when you blow your account whether you are trading with too little capital as the majority of Retail Traders are or because of a Black Swan event such as Brexit or Europe banking issue such as we have in Italy at the moment or the Swiss Central Bank as they did a few years ago say one thing and then next moment announce a major change in their policy and 500 PIP movements happen in seconds. The absolute MINIMUM Forex Account that I would and could trade with would be $10,000 US Dollars. I would be glad to answer questions as to why although most will understand. What if you do not have $10,000 US Dollars trade with ? Prove to yourself that you have the skills and the knowledge to trade with profits then you will have no problems finding funds to trade Forex with. After my 3 years of Forex Demo Trading, I went out and found 6 clients that first deposited initially $50,000 US Dollars and within 3 months along with the profits that I was generating in my first three months of Forex trading from March 2006 to June 2006, I was managing well over $100,000 US Dollars.

(4) Technical Indicators which includes all parts of it whether Support and Resistance or Supply and Demand or Pivot Points. I use when I do daily trades the 5 Minute Charts along with the 15 Minute Charts and 30 Minute Charts to go along with the 4 Hour Charts. When you toss a rock in the river the first ripple is the 5 Minute Chart and then on to the 30 Minute and the two others. I use other indicators aside from the standard ones which are SAR and Fractal and Awesome Oscillator. The most important one that I look at when I enter into a Forex Trade is Support and Resistance so if I am going long or short I enter either at the TOP or BOTTOM of the Chart that I am using. Of course my Risk Management protects me from Human Errors or EGO.

(5) Fundamentals. I am fairly sure most of those reading my words today or whenever they read it might be surprised how a Forex Trader such as myself who posts a tremendous amount of research can list fundamentals as number (5) in order of importance. It is the research that allows me to clearly understand the difference between PERCEPTION (Markets) and REALITY (Research) Then I know what will most likely happen in the future and I am better prepared to deal with it.

I hope that this post of my daily Morning Thoughts answers some of your questions both for the 12 Forex Traders using the $50,000 US Funds Demo account with FXCM UK or anyone else. There is no reason that an experienced trader reading this thread or anyone else to not open a $50,000 US Dollars FXCM UK account so they can use the knowledge that we share here to learn new things and try them without having any FEAR of LOSS !!!

As always , I look forward to feedback and thoughts and anything that you care to share with us on our Thread.

CORRECTION !!! Thursday Morning at 7:00 AM EST is the BOE Rate Decision, not the ECB with Draghi

This one is with Canadian Mark Carney ...

Good Night Everyone !!!


Benjaminis

https://yragharris.com/2017/01/31/decision/

Snippet:
Notes From Underground: FOMC Decision Day Is Upon Us


Janet Yellen and the FED take center stage tomorrow and the consensus is for NO CHANGE. The market believes the FED will be on hold until March. BUT I OFFER THIS: If I was the FED chair I WOULD RAISE RATES 50 BASIS POINTS to take some of the risk out of the U.S. equity markets. The S&Ps are virtually unchanged since the December FOMC meeting but the market’s enthusiasm for anticipated tax cuts, regulatory relief, and possible currency intervention means the FED cannot wait to let the economy run “hotter for longer,” especially because of the 4.7% U3 unemployment level. If Chair Yellen wishes to burst the TRUMP exuberance it is time to move aggressively to stem the rise of a potential inflationary threat.

DO I THINK JANET YELLEN WILL PURSUE THIS PATH? It’s highly doubtful for she does not like confrontation, especially with the markets. Remember the Fed’s retrenchment from its move to taper QE? The famous taper tantrum? I offer up this scenario: If the Fed did shock the market with a SURPRISE rate increase, or maybe more IMPORTANTLY, an announcement to shrink its balance sheet, let the DOLLAR RALLY (CURRENCY FUTURES DECLINE), let GOLD AND SILVER DECLINE, then buy the BREAK on any unanticipated FED action. Of course, this is all just a dream. We’ll have to wait for the minutes on February 22 to see what the Fed is thinking.


Why do I want to sell the DOLLAR AND BUY HARD ASSETS? As I warned last week after Trump met with auto executives. I cited Mark Fields’ comments about currency manipulation being the “mother of all trade barriers.” Today, Peter Navarro, Trump’s trade CZAR pointed his finger at the Germans for manipulating the EURO lower. In a Financial Times article Navarro said, “A big obstacle to viewing TTIP as a bilateral deal is Germany, which continues to exploit other countries in the EU as well as the U.S. with an ‘implicit Deutsche Mark’ that is grossly undervalued.” This has been a discussion in NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND for the last seven years. And LET ME BE CLEAR: PROFESSOR NAVARRO is trying to create a narrative of currency manipulation and HAS IT WRONG. In fact it is not an implicit DEUTSCHE MARK but an implicit French franc.


The Germans have been opposed to President Draghi’s QE program for it is resulting in higher inflation in Berlin’s economy. If it was a DEUTSCHE MARK the currency would be MUCH STRONGER. Based on economic fundamentals the D-MARK would be at 1.30 per dollar rather than the current synthetic level of 1.81 based on its weight within the EURO. What Navarro did today was to declare WAR ON MARIO DRAGHI, for if Draghi were “forced” to end QE to placate the Trump administration and its nationalistic economic agenda, ITALY, SPAIN, PORTUGAL, GREECE and others would find themselves collapsing under its massive load of debt. Without Draghi’s QE and promise to do “whatever it takes,” the global financial system would implode. The only way to save Europe if QE ended would be for Germany to acquiesce and agree to embark upon a program of continued TRANSFER PAYMENTS to the debt-crippled economies of Southern Europe. With elections in the fall, Merkel may not be able to do much.


After the initial statement by Navarro, President Trump held a meeting with the CEOs of large PHARMA CORPORATIONS. The president went out of his way accused “… China and Japan of using monetary policy to pursue ‘devaluation’ in the past to gain a trading advantage over the U.S.” This is a great deal of rhetoric directed toward unilateral intervention by the Trump Administration and Treasury Secretary nominee Steve Mnuchin hasn’t even been confirmed yet. As I warned last week, the currency market is overweight LONG DOLLAR positions so a short covering rally could be explosive.


Tonight, the Japanese YEN trade will be interesting as the currency has rallied 3% during the last two trading sessions, even as the BOJ had no change to its policy. If the YEN sells off tonight check your support levels because anytime the Japanese are challenged on its currency policy there is an effort to placate the markets and allow the currency to rally. The ALGO drivers have been reticent to measure fundamentals into their trading mechanisms but with a new sheriff at the BORDER things can change quickly. Ok, Yellen you’re up to bat.


Comments from Benjaminis: Now my work is done for today !!!

Great readings Benjamin,
I'm catching up slowly, two more exams to go, two already aced, still waiting for my 3rd's one result.


Will be fun watching NFP unfold
Greetings

Morning Thoughts - Daily

The way my mind is programmed to work through life experience with strong discipline is the need to really understand and then the follow up need for confirmation. Sometimes because of my very strong views in order to be objective and fair then I continue to explore all aspects of a subject that I am interested in. This morning as I do every morning when I start my Forex work day usually between 5 AM and 7 AM , I review information and in the case of Forex Factory I read certain threads to get a sense of how others are thinking.

This morning I read the following post by a new member to Forex Factory however someone who has found a positive way to trade Forex.

I am going to paste the post here now and insert my comments so everyone that reads this post can follow along with my thinking.

Quoting WolGod
I feel very sorry for all here at forex factory especially this thread. tooslow has a strategy of a candlestock bar being up or down. Wth? people talking in pips, $$s, its sad. Oscillators people actually believe give value. Even when i show an awesome fundamentally and technically perfect trade no one can see it .not even in the slightest. I was told retail traders had No clue but my god never realized how much. Im very thankful for my education. One in a million it would seem. i urge most of you to stop trading before you lose everything. Dukas...
Im already trading for long time 5 years now , study alone.. Don't Give up Guys.. I even stress when study..
i have 2 friend that have success trade until now still trade..

once you understand ,, you can dance with the chart...

I have 2 strategy

1. Price Action Multipair Correlation (Hourly , Long Term 10% Risk , 20% reward , 80% success rate) I trade with 100$ FULL LOT..
2. Single Pair Analyst (M1 chart - Monthly) [ scappling , in most case no floating ,, after entering trade only spread from broker and it will plus profit less than 1 minute , 2.5% Equity Risk , 10% equity take profit]

COMMENTARY FROM BENJAMINIS: We see similarity here to what I teach.

(1) CORRELATION , CHARTS , RISK , REWARD , SUCCESS RATE.
(2) EQUITY RISK 2.5% , Reward - 10%.


I only use Technical. I ignore news.. just follow the trend it will help you..
But the problem is people don't know where is trend , After it they don't know how to entry.
Well i make my own indicator.

COMMENTARY FROM BENJAMINIS: More Similarity and IMPORTANT , "Follow The Trend"

Example My Simple MM :
2.5% Equity -> (100 * 2.5)/100 = 2.5$
Lot Size -> 2.5 $ / 50 (Risk Point/SL) = 0.05
Trailing Sop every -> 50 (RiskPoint/SL) * 4 = 200 Point

COMMENTARY FROM BENJAMINIS: A Plan of Action that is followed.

Don't worry if you study.. read and relax.. you will find your strategy..
My Strategy is suits to me , But when you use my strategy maybe its not suits to you..
Everyone have different taste..
Consistent!

COMMENTARY FROM BENJAMINIS: This is one of the major points that I keep confirming and it is that there are other styles and methods that work for people that have designed a method that they can succeed at HOWEVER in a limited way and with NO CERTAINTY. What I teach is hoped for PERFECTION since I am a PERFECTIONIST in my work ethic as hard as that is to do sometimes. This Forex trader of 5 years talks about STUDY , READ , RELAX and again more good similarities.

Its ok to jump real market to feel the emotion and mental real trading ..
but don't waste your money.. trade only if you already have big deal strategy success and tested with demo account ..
(IF YOU DON'T HAVE GOOD STRATEGY) you should use money that u Ready to lose it .. Because you are gambling not trading..
Attached Image
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1485937935


COMMENTARY FROM BENJAMINIS: This has been very informative for myself since it lets me explain better to myself and by extension to those here that want to become professional full time Forex traders.

WE can see that in the past prior to 2008 trading Forex was in many ways easier however in today's atmosphere and environment it is close to impossible to trade with confidence or not trading in the dark. Read the EUR/USD thread any day and you will see some excellent Forex traders guessing what might happen. We do not guess as we trade with knowledge and discipline and trade plans using all the tools at our disposal so each day we have our Forex trading EDGE.

As always I invite your thoughts on this subject. Thank You.


Benjaminis

Good Day

Hope everyone is doing well.

Here is the chats so long. Will update later again.

VERY VERY IMPORTANT ANALYSIS FROM MISH. Please read it carefully and print it out and understand the FUTURE so you are aware.

https://mishtalk.com/2017/01/31/trum...ing-the-truth/


Trump Accuses Germany of “Currency Exploitation”: Merkel vs. Trump, Is Either Side Telling the Truth?

31TuesdayJan 2017

Posted by Mish | January 31, 2017 3:28:44 | Economics

≈ 37 Comments

President Donald Trump and his advisors have taken on the EU and the Euro. Specifically, Peter Navarro, the head of Mr Trump’s National Trade Council, said euro was like an “implicit Deutsche Mark” and “grossly undervalued”.
German chancellor Angela Merkel responded Germany “will not influence the behaviour of the ECB”.
Let’s take a look at the claims and counter-claims to sort out the obvious lies.

Please consider Trump’s Top Trade Adviser Accuses Germany of Currency Exploitation.

Germany is using a “grossly undervalued” euro to “exploit” the US and its EU partners, Donald Trump’s top trade adviser has said in comments likely to trigger alarm in Europe’s largest economy.
At a meeting with pharmaceutical bosses on Tuesday, Mr Trump accused Japan and China of using monetary policy to pursue “devaluation” in the past to gain a trading advantage over the US.
“They play the money market, they play the devaluation market, while we sit here like a bunch of dummies,” Mr Trump said.
“A big obstacle to viewing TTIP as a bilateral deal is Germany, which continues to exploit other countries in the EU as well as the US with an ‘implicit Deutsche Mark’ that is grossly undervalued,” Mr Navarro said. “The German structural imbalance in trade with the rest of the EU and the US underscores the economic heterogeneity [diversity] within the EU — ergo, this is a multilateral deal in bilateral dress.”
Besides publicly supporting the British government in its negotiations with the EU over the terms of its exit, Mr Trump called the EU a vehicle for Germany, and Nato an obsolete alliance.
Mr Navarro, however, said he was not concerned about the possibility of a stronger dollar and its impact on US exports.

Merkel Rejects Navarro’s Claims
https://mishgea.files.wordpress.com/...ng?w=529&h=339
The BBC reports Merkel Rejects Trump Advisor Euro Claim.

Peter Navarro, the head of Mr Trump’s National Trade Council, told the Financial Times that the euro is a German currency in disguise.
But Mrs Merkel said Germany “has always called for the European Central Bank to pursue an independent policy”.
In response to Mr Navarro’s comments, Mrs Merkel said: “Germany is a country that has always called for the European Central Bank to pursue an independent policy, just as the Bundesbank did that before the euro existed.”
“Because of that we will not influence the behaviour of the ECB. And as a result, I cannot and do not want to change the situation as it is,” she added.

Merkel the Liar
Clearly Merkel is a liar. Her own finance Minister has on many occasions attempted to influence ECB policy.
For example, in September of 2016 Schaueble stated “Even before the European Central Bank decided its policies of unusual monetary policy, which also led to the euro exchange rate falling significantly, I said that we will increase German export surplus.”
Not only did Schaueble blame the ECB, he also blasted its “unusual policy”.
For details, please see Germany’s Finance Minister Blames ECB For German Trade Surplus; Why the Eurozone Will Destruct.
In the above case, Schaueble is actually concerned the Euro is falling. Nonetheless, it is a lie to claim that “Germany is a country that has always called for the European Central Bank to pursue an independent policy” when her own finance minister consistently tries to influence the ECB.
Germany Trade Surplus with US
On one hand, Navarro accuses Germany of weakening its currency to boos exports. On the other hand Navarro is not concerned about the effect a strong dollar will have on US exports. You cannot have this both ways.
Moreover, I would like to see Navarro’s explanation as to why Germany had a trade surplus with the US even when it took 1.5 dollars to buy a euro.
https://mishgea.files.wordpress.com/...ng?w=529&h=298
In 2011, the Dollar traded in a range of 1.26 to 1.49 per Euro, with results as shown above. One can pick any year or any currency level and discover that Germany has a trade surplus with the US, regardless of currency level.
The Euro was announced in 1995 and launched in 1999. In that entire timeframe, there is not a single month in which Germany did not have a trade surplus with the US, regardless of the level of the euro!
Going back all the way to 1985, there was only one month in which Germany did not have a trade surplus with the US. Congratulations are in order for April of 1991.
Clearly there is something more in play than the strength or weakness of currency pairs.
Pot Calls Kettle Black
Navarro blames China, the ECB, Japan, and everyone else for “currency manipulation”.
He forgot to look in the mirror. Manipulation of interest rates and central bank asset purchases also influence currencies.
The US is at least a big a manipulator as any of the countries Navarro accuses.
EU a Vehicle for Germany?
Trump called the EU a “vehicle for Germany”. That is an accurate statement. How can one deny it?
Peripheral Europe disintegrated under the Euro for benefit of Germany. Until recently, the ECB’s policy had been best described as “one size fits Germany”. And Germany still wants to dictate ECB policy.
To an extent, this is not Germany’s fault. The Euro was poorly designed and poorly implemented. Germany insisted all along it would not go into a transfer union.
Germany will pay a price, and a huge price, when this explodes sometime down the road.
Undervalued Yuan? Yen?
Trump and his team believe the Yen, the Euro, and the Yuan are all undervalued.
The irony in regards to yuan is that it might crash if China dared float the the currency. China is in fact desperately attempting to prop up the yuan to stop capital flight.
Is the Yen undervalued? Arguably it’s not given the inane policy of Japan over the years and the more recent policy of Abenomics.
Undervalued Euro?
https://mishgea.files.wordpress.com/...ng?w=529&h=358
Bloomberg reports Euro Is G-10’s Most Undervalued Currency by OECD Measure.
Really? What happens to Eurozone banks and the euro if the eurozone breaks up?
The euro might crash. That’s what. It all depends on how the eurozone breaks up and how governments respond.
If Italy decides to leave, and then pay back its target2 imbalance in lira, the entire European banking structure blows sky high. This is not an unlikely event.
And Trump is pushing the likelihood along nicely.
Origin of the Crisis
This all dates back to 1971 when Nixon closed the gold window, unleashing a torrent of speculative credit, while creating precisely the trade environment we are in today.
Governments could and did inflate at will, for the sole benefit of the banks, the politically connected, and the already wealthy.
Proponents of the “secular stagnation” thesis that blames a global saving glut are amazingly off base as to the cause of the stagnation and imbalances.
Conclusion
Part of the strength of the Dollar and weakness of the Euro reflects concerns mentioned above.
There is so much manipulation and interference by central banks everywhere, it is difficult to say precisely how this will all shake out.
However, I still expect a major currency crisis, and if so, gold stands to be the beneficiary.
Meanwhile, Trump’s trade policies are on the verge of starting a global trade war, exacerbating the currency problems he rails against.
Related Articles

1. January 12, 2017: Secular Stagnation Theory: Challenge to DeLong, Summers, Bernanke, Krugman, Keen, Pettis, Edwards
2. January 10, 2017: Steen Jakobsen on “The Nixon Doctrine”, Trump, Equities, Gold
3. July 8, 2011: Hugo Salinas Price and Michael Pettis on the Trade Imbalance Dilemma; Gold’s Honest Discipline Revisited
4. October 19, 2014: Challenge to Keynesians “Prove Rising Prices Provide an Overall Economic Benefit”
5. September 9, 2016: Germany’s Finance Minister Blames ECB For German Trade Surplus; Why the Eurozone Will Destruct.

My challenges in links 1 and 4 have gone unanswered. DeLong, Summers, Bernanke, and Krugman won’t answer because they have no answer.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock


Trump Accuses Germany of “Currency Exploitation”: Merkel vs. Trump, Is Either Side Telling the Truth?

31TuesdayJan 2017

Posted by Mish | January 31, 2017 3:28:44 | Economics

≈ 37 Comments

President Donald Trump and his advisors have taken on the EU and the Euro. Specifically, Peter Navarro, the head of Mr Trump’s National Trade Council, said euro was like an “implicit Deutsche Mark” and “grossly undervalued”.
German chancellor Angela Merkel responded Germany “will not influence the behaviour of the ECB”.
Let’s take a look at the claims and counter-claims to sort out the obvious lies.

Please consider Trump’s Top Trade Adviser Accuses Germany of Currency Exploitation.

Germany is using a “grossly undervalued” euro to “exploit” the US and its EU partners, Donald Trump’s top trade adviser has said in comments likely to trigger alarm in Europe’s largest economy.
At a meeting with pharmaceutical bosses on Tuesday, Mr Trump accused Japan and China of using monetary policy to pursue “devaluation” in the past to gain a trading advantage over the US.
“They play the money market, they play the devaluation market, while we sit here like a bunch of dummies,” Mr Trump said.
“A big obstacle to viewing TTIP as a bilateral deal is Germany, which continues to exploit other countries in the EU as well as the US with an ‘implicit Deutsche Mark’ that is grossly undervalued,” Mr Navarro said. “The German structural imbalance in trade with the rest of the EU and the US underscores the economic heterogeneity [diversity] within the EU — ergo, this is a multilateral deal in bilateral dress.”
Besides publicly supporting the British government in its negotiations with the EU over the terms of its exit, Mr Trump called the EU a vehicle for Germany, and Nato an obsolete alliance.
Mr Navarro, however, said he was not concerned about the possibility of a stronger dollar and its impact on US exports.

Merkel Rejects Navarro’s Claims
https://mishgea.files.wordpress.com/...ng?w=529&h=339
The BBC reports Merkel Rejects Trump Advisor Euro Claim.

Peter Navarro, the head of Mr Trump’s National Trade Council, told the Financial Times that the euro is a German currency in disguise.
But Mrs Merkel said Germany “has always called for the European Central Bank to pursue an independent policy”.
In response to Mr Navarro’s comments, Mrs Merkel said: “Germany is a country that has always called for the European Central Bank to pursue an independent policy, just as the Bundesbank did that before the euro existed.”
“Because of that we will not influence the behaviour of the ECB. And as a result, I cannot and do not want to change the situation as it is,” she added.

Merkel the Liar
Clearly Merkel is a liar. Her own finance Minister has on many occasions attempted to influence ECB policy.
For example, in September of 2016 Schaueble stated “Even before the European Central Bank decided its policies of unusual monetary policy, which also led to the euro exchange rate falling significantly, I said that we will increase German export surplus.”
Not only did Schaueble blame the ECB, he also blasted its “unusual policy”.
For details, please see Germany’s Finance Minister Blames ECB For German Trade Surplus; Why the Eurozone Will Destruct.
In the above case, Schaueble is actually concerned the Euro is falling. Nonetheless, it is a lie to claim that “Germany is a country that has always called for the European Central Bank to pursue an independent policy” when her own finance minister consistently tries to influence the ECB.
Germany Trade Surplus with US
On one hand, Navarro accuses Germany of weakening its currency to boos exports. On the other hand Navarro is not concerned about the effect a strong dollar will have on US exports. You cannot have this both ways.
Moreover, I would like to see Navarro’s explanation as to why Germany had a trade surplus with the US even when it took 1.5 dollars to buy a euro.
https://mishgea.files.wordpress.com/...ng?w=529&h=298
In 2011, the Dollar traded in a range of 1.26 to 1.49 per Euro, with results as shown above. One can pick any year or any currency level and discover that Germany has a trade surplus with the US, regardless of currency level.
The Euro was announced in 1995 and launched in 1999. In that entire timeframe, there is not a single month in which Germany did not have a trade surplus with the US, regardless of the level of the euro!
Going back all the way to 1985, there was only one month in which Germany did not have a trade surplus with the US. Congratulations are in order for April of 1991.
Clearly there is something more in play than the strength or weakness of currency pairs.
Pot Calls Kettle Black
Navarro blames China, the ECB, Japan, and everyone else for “currency manipulation”.
He forgot to look in the mirror. Manipulation of interest rates and central bank asset purchases also influence currencies.
The US is at least a big a manipulator as any of the countries Navarro accuses.
EU a Vehicle for Germany?
Trump called the EU a “vehicle for Germany”. That is an accurate statement. How can one deny it?
Peripheral Europe disintegrated under the Euro for benefit of Germany. Until recently, the ECB’s policy had been best described as “one size fits Germany”. And Germany still wants to dictate ECB policy.
To an extent, this is not Germany’s fault. The Euro was poorly designed and poorly implemented. Germany insisted all along it would not go into a transfer union.
Germany will pay a price, and a huge price, when this explodes sometime down the road.
Undervalued Yuan? Yen?
Trump and his team believe the Yen, the Euro, and the Yuan are all undervalued.
The irony in regards to yuan is that it might crash if China dared float the the currency. China is in fact desperately attempting to prop up the yuan to stop capital flight.
Is the Yen undervalued? Arguably it’s not given the inane policy of Japan over the years and the more recent policy of Abenomics.
Undervalued Euro?
https://mishgea.files.wordpress.com/...ng?w=529&h=358
Bloomberg reports Euro Is G-10’s Most Undervalued Currency by OECD Measure.
Really? What happens to Eurozone banks and the euro if the eurozone breaks up?
The euro might crash. That’s what. It all depends on how the eurozone breaks up and how governments respond.
If Italy decides to leave, and then pay back its target2 imbalance in lira, the entire European banking structure blows sky high. This is not an unlikely event.
And Trump is pushing the likelihood along nicely.
Origin of the Crisis
This all dates back to 1971 when Nixon closed the gold window, unleashing a torrent of speculative credit, while creating precisely the trade environment we are in today.
Governments could and did inflate at will, for the sole benefit of the banks, the politically connected, and the already wealthy.
Proponents of the “secular stagnation” thesis that blames a global saving glut are amazingly off base as to the cause of the stagnation and imbalances.
Conclusion
Part of the strength of the Dollar and weakness of the Euro reflects concerns mentioned above.
There is so much manipulation and interference by central banks everywhere, it is difficult to say precisely how this will all shake out.
However, I still expect a major currency crisis, and if so, gold stands to be the beneficiary.
Meanwhile, Trump’s trade policies are on the verge of starting a global trade war, exacerbating the currency problems he rails against.
Related Articles

1. January 12, 2017: Secular Stagnation Theory: Challenge to DeLong, Summers, Bernanke, Krugman, Keen, Pettis, Edwards
2. January 10, 2017: Steen Jakobsen on “The Nixon Doctrine”, Trump, Equities, Gold
3. July 8, 2011: Hugo Salinas Price and Michael Pettis on the Trade Imbalance Dilemma; Gold’s Honest Discipline Revisited
4. October 19, 2014: Challenge to Keynesians “Prove Rising Prices Provide an Overall Economic Benefit”
5. September 9, 2016: Germany’s Finance Minister Blames ECB For German Trade Surplus; Why the Eurozone Will Destruct.

My challenges in links 1 and 4 have gone unanswered. DeLong, Summers, Bernanke, and Krugman won’t answer because they have no answer.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock

Hi Dttsomh, glad to hear about your exams, all the best for the last 2.

Will the following excellent charts on EUR/USD factor in any of the DATA coming out during the day especially the FOMC announcement at 2 PM EST ?

The answer is clearly NO.


Benjaminis

Guys I had to share this.. might help some of you to see the bigger picture.. (Thanks to Chris Svorcik from www.mtrading.com, all credits goes to him.)

Hour 4: "The EUR/USD turned around yet again for one more bullish push higher. The price action, however, remains very choppy and corrective. Price has also reached the next Fibonacci resistance: the 88.6% level. A break above the 88.6% makes a wave 2 (brown) unlikely and a break above 100% invalidates this wave structure. A break below support could spark waves 3"

Hour 1:"The EUR/USD bearish price action was an ABC correction (green) and price could have completed a bullish ABC correction too. The wave C (green) could continue higher if price breaks above resistance (red) and the 138.2% Fibonacci."

Stay Green
Attached Images (click to enlarge)
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1485948588 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1485948602
Be a seer, not a looker!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ops+to+zero%29

The Alternative Fact of the Cashless Society
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...ture-44273.jpg
by GoldCore
Feb 1, 2017 7:30 AM


Why gold will benefit from the alternative fact of the cashless society

1. Alternative facts prevail in the European Commissions calls for cash controls
2. Terrorism is blamed for the need to control cash
3. Evidence shows criminals find alternative ways to finance activities
4. Citizens continue to want and to use cash in day-to-day life
5. Cashless society is being used to force through other agendas
6. Gold and silver will be used as savers are forced to hold assets outside of the financial system

http://www.goldcore.com/ie/wp-conten...llar-ascii.png

Why gold will benefit from the alternative fact of the cashless society

Those who control the present, control the past and those who control the past control the future.
? George Orwell, 1984

Last week a new phrase was introduced into our lexicon by Trump Adviser Kellyanne Conway. When asked about why press secretary Sean Spicer had made statements that were (according to the press) unverifiable she said that he had used alternative facts.
This prompted a raft of satire, journalists to flail their arms up at the audacity of Conway and Trumps administration, and for people to rush out and buy George Orwells 1984.

Penguin, the worlds largest publisher, ordered a 75,000 copy reprint last week. Apparently more than the typical reprint' for the 1949 Orwellian classic. The alternative facts statement echoed of Newspeak the language used by the totalitarian government in Orwells 1984 to influence and control its citizens of Airstrip One (previously Britain).

European Commission Embraces Newspeak
A day after Conways interview the European Commission took of the advantage of the furore that continues to surround the Trump administration (the shock that the President is doing exactly what he promised to do) and introduced a proposal enforcing "restrictions on payments in cash.
The EC apparently like to use their own version of alternative facts when it comes to arguing why we should be going cashless.

The proposal is based on a plan from February 2016 that explained, Payments in cash are widely used in the financing of terrorist activities In this context, the relevance of potential upper limits to cash payments could also be explored. Several Member States have in place prohibitions for cash payments above a specific threshold.

And whilst terrorists do no doubt use cash to finance some activities (the US has purportedly blown-up stockpiles of ISIS cash), research shows that countries with higher denominations of cash in fact experience lower levels of crime and corruption.
And what about those non-criminals? EC are failing to address the fact that law-abiding citizens still like to use cash and will continue to whilst negative interest rates and bail-ins remain a reality. Not to mention the privacy it affords us.

This Newspeak is starting to feel like were supposed to feel bad about using cash and instead should become inclined to move to a cashless way of life. Whilst the EC is still in proposal-stage we should be reminded that the move to cashless is very much in play, as we explained in Cashless society - War on Cash to Benefit Gold?.

Cash-free does not mean terrorism free
As pointed out by Zerohedge the proposal is very focused on stopping terrorism, crime and money laundering. It states:
Potential restrictions to cash payments would be a mean to fight criminal activities entailing large payment transactions in cash by organised criminal networksTerrorists use cash to sustain their illegal activities, not only for illegal transactions (e.g. the acquisition of explosives) but also for payments which are in appearance legal
http://www.goldcore.com/ie/wp-conten...2/currency.pngBut, as argued in the Sovereign Man blog, economists such as Rogoff and Stiglitz and government organisations such as the EC are relying on the myth that cash facilitates illegal activity.

Who is so naive to think that a ban on cash will stop terrorism? What they have missed is that criminal and terrorist leanings facilitate such activities, they will always find some form of means of exchange to facilitate it.

Sovereign Man explains that criminals and terrorists can, miraculously, use means other than physical cash in order to facilitate illegal activities.

The US military has literally blown up more than a billion dollars worth of ISISs stockpiles of physical cash during airstrikes.
But this hasnt affected their terrorist activities one bit.

Thats because the most notorious terrorist group on the planet famously uses both the worlds oldest currency (gold) and the worlds newest currency (Bitcoin).
And its not just big terrorist groups who are able to work their way around a cash-based monetary system.
What Stiglitz, and perhaps many law enforcement agencies, fail to realize is that one of the biggest tools in masking illegal activity is actually Amazon.com.
Specifically, Amazon gift cards.

If youre looking to quietly and easily pay large sums of money, even tens of thousands of dollars, you can do so with Amazon gift cards.
Amazon gift cards are essentially a cash equivalent.
Amazon sells just about everything on the planet, so its gift cards can either be spent or quickly resold for cash.

Cash will soon not be a right
The EC, Rogoff and Stiglitz are all behaving as though cash is only used for illicit activities. There is apparently little thought to those of us who still use cash. Most of us look at cash as something that is both convenient and provides a way to spend money without it being anyone elses business other than ours and the seller. But governments label this as suspicious with the intention to get us away from cash so that the banking system may be propped up and bailed-in by our funds.

There is but a fleeting mention of the fundamental right to use cash in this recent EC proposal but it is quickly dismissed:
It should also be observed that national restrictions to cash payments were never successfully challenged based on an infringement to fundamental rights.

Cash is still widely used, by both citizens and big businesses but this has not stopped both governments and banks looking to move us away from using cash.
The most recent example of a shift to a cashless society was of course the demonetisation of 500 and 1,000 rupee notes in India. Whilst Prime Minister Modi acknowledged that millions had been affected he reiterated calls for the country to become a cashless society.

Meanwhile In Ireland companies are making investments on the basis of the future cashless society. US company EVO, a payment processing partner of Bank of Ireland, announced a 9.1 million move to the country that is embracing a cashless way of life. Brian Cleary, managing director of BOI Payment Acceptance Ireland and UK, an arm of Evo Payment International told the Irish Independent, With over six million debit and credit cards in the market, debit card spend on the increase year-on-year and over 35,000 Irish businesses offering contactless payment facilities, this number continues to grow.

http://www.goldcore.com/ie/wp-conten...der-threat.pngIn the UK, cashless is almost as popular as the likes of the Scandinavian countries. In August 2016 More than 260 million contactless transactions were made in the UK, a 200% increase from the year before. According to a Telegraph article, ATMs are close to becoming extinct as banks will no longer finance them. Rural areas will be the hardest hit with the South West, Scotland, and the South East where 44pc, 40pc and 33pc of cash points are under threat

The threat of a cashless society is seemingly greater than ever, so much so that MPs are being called to investigate. As Ron Delnevo, director of the ATM Industry Association in Europe, told the Telegraph: "Some organisations want to drive people away from cash because it suits their agenda. He also warned of a "domino effect", saying that if one big bank pulled out of the arrangement "the whole thing will just melt".

Cash controls will extend beyond cash
The EC doesnt intend to stop just at putting controls on (or even outright banning) cash. Under the guise of preventing anonymity they believe that restrictions should be placed on all means of payment that mean people can have some privacy:
In view of the development of cryptocurrencies and the existence of other means of payments ensuring anonymity, an option could be to extend the restrictions to cash payments to all payments ensuring anonymity (cryptocurrencies, payment in kinds, etc.). On the other hand, restrictions on cash payments could promote the development of alternative payments technologies compatible with the non-anonymity objective pursued.

Aside from what this means for all forms of payments, it ultimately means that the EC has decided that http://www.goldcore.com/ie/wp-conten...02/privacy.pnganonymity, i.e. privacy, is a bad thing. To want it is to suggest that you are doing something criminal.
This will no doubt drive up demand for tangible currencies such as gold and silver which should be held outside of the banking system, as outlined in a letter to the FT following Gillian Tetts article in support for a cashless society:
Sir, Gillian Tett sees some benefits in scrapping cash (February 5). I, instead, see an Orwellian nightmare where citizens every step is recorded in a Big Brother database for tax, financial and monetary purposes. In a certain sense cash means freedom. If cash is really scrapped by governments in the future I have no doubt that alternative tangible currencies will emerge. I will be in the front line using them.

At the moment negative interest rates and bail-ins will only work if cash cannot be removed from the system. And central banks and government are well aware of this. This is why tangible currencies such as gold and silver are becomingly increasingly more attractive as the push for cashless society and reduced privacy, grows.

As Doctor Constantin Gurdgiev wrote:
Cash and monetary assets, such as gold, cannot be expropriated or bailed-in as long as they are held in physical form and under proper storage. Cashless accounts amplify the importance of monetary assets, such as gold, in fulfilling the function of being safe havens against systemic risks risks that are associated with high probability of Government expropriation.

Conclusion: gold and silver
A cashless world means a transparent world, which is great if terrorists were the only ones using cash. But theyre really not, so a cashless world means transparent bank accounts which means restricted banks accounts.

Human behaviour and data does not support the argument for a cashless society. Instead this is seemingly a move to force to restrict our freedom and to get us to hold our wealth in a banking system where negative interest rates and bail-ins are a harsh reality and are our financial decisions are there for all to see.
Lars Feld, economic advisor to the German government, referred to cash as printed freedom. It seems that this will not be the case for long. Unfortunately under the Newspeak guise of protecting us from criminals our cash will no longer be the ticket to a private life.

Money in a bank account is no longer yours- it is a bank deposit, an unsecured liability in a commercial bank that is entrenched in the global banking system. It relies on trust in a system that is inherently broken and on a downward spiral that is prepared to take savings and wealth with it.
Fyodor Dostoevsky wrote, Money is coined liberty and many years later this is still the case for gold and silver. Unfortunately it is no longer the case for cash. History shows multiple attempts of wealth confiscation and restrictions on freedom, each time individuals and governments have returned to gold and silver in order to protect their savings and their privacy.

Going cashless will not rid us of people and organisations who wish to commit horrific and illegal acts. Instead it will encourage them to find additional ways to run their gangs and terrorist cells. For the rest of us it will remind us of the importance of liberty, safe-havens, security and the need to protect our wealth from negative interest rates, bail-ins and currency devaluations.

Whilst a government using alternative facts and telling us that something is for the greater good when it is clearly for the greater banking system is disheartening we should embrace the role of gold and silver. The role of precious metals in a cashless society are key and investors should remember the importance of diversification and holding assets, under direct ownership, outside of the vulnerable and exposed banking system.

Gold and Silver Bullion - News and Commentary
Gold becomes one of investors favorite safe havens with Trump uncertainty (Reuters.com)
Gold rises as Trump policy fuels safe haven demand (Reuters.com)
ETF Buyers Return to Precious Metals Amid Trump Policy Angst (Bloomberg.com)
German inflation pick-up unsettles euro zone bond markets (Reuters.com)
Lloyd's of London says it can manage a $200bn event (CityAM.com)
http://www.goldcore.com/ie/wp-conten...hour-2-feb.png
Ultra Easy Money: Digging the Hole Deeper? (LMBA.org.uk)
Major Inflection Point Coming In Stocks - Hussman (DollarCollapse.com)
ECB Assets Rise Above 36% Of Eurozone GDP; Draghi Now Owns 10.2% Of European Corporate Bonds (ZeroHedge.com)
What totalitarianism looks like - Daily Reckoning (DailyReckoning.co.uk)
United States Is On The Precipice Of Widespread Civil Unrest (ZeroHedge.com)
http://www.goldcore.com/news/wp-cont...BlogBanner.jpg
Gold Prices (LBMA AM)
01 Feb: USD 1,210.00, GBP 960.01 & EUR 1,122.03 per ounce
31 Jan: USD 1,198.80, GBP 964.91 & EUR 1,119.20 per ounce
30 Jan: USD 1,189.85, GBP 949.38 & EUR 1,112.63 per ounce
27 Jan: USD 1,184.20, GBP 943.81 & EUR 1,108.77 per ounce
26 Jan: USD 1,191.55, GBP 945.14 & EUR 1,111.95 per ounce
25 Jan: USD 1,203.50, GBP 956.90 & EUR 1,119.62 per ounce
24 Jan: USD 1,213.30, GBP 972.22 & EUR 1,130.07 per ounce
23 Jan: USD 1,213.75, GBP 974.03 & EUR 1,130.12 per ounce
Silver Prices (LBMA)
01 Feb: USD 17.60, GBP 13.91 & EUR 16.29 per ounce
31 Jan: USD 17.29, GBP 13.86 & EUR 16.07 per ounce
30 Jan: USD 17.10, GBP 13.65 & EUR 16.03 per ounce
27 Jan: USD 16.70, GBP 13.32 & EUR 15.61 per ounce
26 Jan: USD 16.86, GBP 13.39 & EUR 15.71 per ounce
25 Jan: USD 16.93, GBP 13.46 & EUR 15.74 per ounce
24 Jan: USD 17.10, GBP 13.73 & EUR 15.92 per ounce
23 Jan: USD 17.14, GBP 13.78 & EUR 15.97 per ounce

Recent Market Updates
- Silver, Platinum and Palladium As Safe Havens Reassessing Their Role
- Why 2017 Could See the Collapse of the Euro
- Dow 20K US Debt $20 Trillion Trump and $15,000 Gold
- Switzerlands Gold Exports To China Surge To 158 Tons In December
- Blockchain Central Banks Banking On It
- Sharia Standard May See Gold Surge
- Gold Price To 2 Month High As Fiery Trump Declares New American Order
- Golds Gains 15% In Inauguration Years Since 1974
- Turkey, Axis of Gold and the End of US Dollar Hegemony
- Gold Up 5.5% YTD Hard Brexit Cometh and Weaker Dollar Under Trump
- Bitcoin and Gold Outlook and Safe Haven?
- Physical Gold Will Trump Paper Gold
- Gold Lower Before Trump Presidency Strong Gains Akin To After Obama Inauguration
www.GoldCore.com

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/yel...teid=rss&rss=1

Yellen may be the foil of the Trump administration

President Donald Trump seems in pole position to get potentially budget-busting corporate tax cuts and infrastructure spending plans through a pliant Congress.
Fed chief Janet Yellen is not likely to be as flexible.
The Fed is likely to respond to fiscal stimulus that requires borrowing by jacking up interest rates. That seems to be the signal that Yellen, and at least one of the central banks other top officials, are sending.
In a way, that sets Yellen up to seen as the most powerful Democrat in opposition to Trumps agenda, along the lines of Sen. Mitch McConnell to President Barack Obama.

But this is a narrative that Yellen would reject, experts said.
Yellen would run, not walk from any suggestion she was the Democrats last best hope in Washington, said economist Diane Swonk.
The Fed is just walking a very fine line, and it is important for the central bank to be seen as nonpolitical, Swonk said.
Mark Gertler, a professor of economics at New York University who often writes about the U.S. central bank, agreed. Yellen would very much resist such a label and its not fair to give it to her.

Being seen as acting politically would only put the Fed more in the crosshairs of a Republican Congress eager to clip the U.S. central banks wings, Swonk said.
Other experts said it would be impugning Yellens motives to describe them in political terms.
The Fed chair is not a political office. She will not be the last hope for Democrats. She will just be an economist that calls it as she sees it, said Austan Goolsbee, a former top economic adviser for Obama and now a professor of economics at The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, in an email.
Gertler said that if the Yellen Fed were to raise interest rates sharply after the Republican Congress passes some sort of budget-busting fiscal stimulus, well, thats what any mainstream Fed official would do.
At her latest press conference Yellen downplayed the need for fiscal stimulus, noting the economy very close to the central banks twin goals of low unemployment and a 2% annual rate of inflation.

I would say at this point fiscal policy is not obviously needed to provide stimulus to help us get back to full employment, Yellen said.
Fed Gov. Lael Brainard went further. Brainard, who published reports indicate was a contender to be Treasury secretary if Hillary Clinton had won, said the pace of interest rate hikes could have to be more rapid than otherwise depending on the nature of fiscal stimulus.
While great uncertainty regarding the path of fiscal policy and its economic effects will remain for some time, with the economy getting closer to full employment, the prospect of a material increase in fiscal stimulus over a sustained period could reasonably be expected to shift somewhat greater probability toward stronger inflation outcomes, she said just days before Trumps inauguration.
Carl Tannenbaum, chief economist at Northern Trust Co., said any central banker worth his or her salt would have the same response to poorly crafted fiscal strategy.

Its not even clear that the rest of the Democratic Party would want such a response from the Fed despite Yellen and Brainards ties.
The party has historically complained that the Fed has paid more attention on guarding against inflation at the expense of battling unemployment.
Yellen has tentatively sketched out a path of three rate hikes per year until the Fed get interest rates to 3% in 2019.

Updated charts

http://seekingalpha.com/article/4041...-friday-expect

NFP Friday - What To Expect

by: Leo Nelissen

Leading employment indicators are accelerating which makes an employment beat on Friday very likely.
I am looking to see higher year-on-year employment growth.
Don't bet on tomorrow's numbers. Volatility, noise and the fact that the data is not leading make it a toxic environment for (day) traders.
Every month, I write an article about the nonfarm payroll expectations. As most traders know, we get employment numbers on every first Friday of each month. These numbers cause by far the most volatility among various asset classes.
However, let me say one thing before I give you Friday's outlook. NFP numbers are not leading. You don't get any employment numbers on Friday that tell you where the US economy is heading.
on Friday, you get to see what the US economy is currently doing. These indicators are called 'coincident indicators'. They tell us what the US economy is currently doing.
I am looking at one number on Friday: employment growth. I want to know whether the year-on-year growth rate of employment is going up or not. We have seen a downtrend for quite some time now. These downtrends are typical late-cycle patterns and should reverse any moment. Why? Because the US economy is accelerating since the third quarter of 2016.
https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fas...1731676006.png
The graph above shows the ISM employment index. This index is leading employment index and should tell us what we can expect in terms of growth. The correlation between ISM employment and the month-on-month NFP change is even bigger than the one above.
https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fas...8288443354.png
Note that I already added tomorrow's expectation of 175K new jobs. Based on strong manufacturing employment, I believe that we are going to see a slightly higher number.
The next graph contains the average employment index from five major regional indices. This index is also leading. During the last two weeks, I discussed every single regional report and mentioned that it looks like employment is bottoming. The average on the graph below confirms this. Based on this upswing, it is very unlikely to see a low NFP number. Numbers close or above 200K are common in times of a strong employment rally.
https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fas...3505699568.png
The FED's employment indicator is slightly down in December. Note that there is no January value. The labor market conditions index is a coincident indicator and can be adjusted every single month.
https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fas...4634767435.png
I use this indicator as a tool to see where employment is trending. I believe that both the labor market conditions index and official employment (year-on-year) growth will bottom in the first quarter of this year.
This Friday, I am not betting on an NFP outcome. I am sticking to my current portfolio (bullish bias). I do this because of the reasons I just explained. The market will overreact after the numbers. Many people will try to get a macro view by analyzing Friday's noise on the media. My advice is to analyze Friday's data carefully. Where is employment growth headed? Are there any surprises we didn't expect? Etc. And keep in mind that it is very likely that we will see a better number than expected due to very strong leading indicators.
Many thanks for reading my article. You can of course expect a full employment breakdown next Friday. Please leave a comment below if you have questions or remarks.

I just got back to my office and FED decision in 13 minutes.

I have one open position of 100 units of Short US 30.

The first reaction is usually reversed within 24 hours. If the FED raises rates today or suggest it might in March 2017 that will be the reaction of the markets and it might overshoot to give the US Dollar strength. On the other hand because of the HIGH ADP number of 246,000 (Private Employment Number) who knows.

Another thing done by the markets (BROKERS) just before the news is out they clean out the STOPS on both sides. We need to watch 5 Minute and 15 Minute charts only.

We are now 6 minutes away and I am watching CNBC live. This is always fun for me.

Any questions please post them and be careful whatever you do and if not sure do nothing and look at Pivot Points and Supply and Demand and Resistance and only trade with OUR TREND.

I also thank KeepCalmfx for the research posted before the release of the numbers.


Benjaminis