Good day
Hope everyone is doing well.
Here is the charts so long.
Hope everyone is doing well.
Here is the charts so long.
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Europe and Asia
GBP: UK Services PMI 54.5 vs. 56.2
EUR: Final Svc. PMI 53.7 vs. 53.6
North America
USD: NFPs 8:30
USD: ISM Non-Manufacturing 10:00
The yen went on a wild ride is Asian session trade while sterling continued to be pounded on the London open in a generally active overnight session before today’s key release of US NFPs.
After a week holiday, Chinese markets were back to work and PBOC began by tightening in its Open Market Operations. USD/JPY which rose steadily for most of Asian trade, hit 113.00 and dropped sharply, probing the 112.50 level within minutes.
But as quickly as it fell the pair spiked once again after BOJ announced that it was buying 5-10s JGBs in unlimited quantities. It has been BOJ policy to keep the rates on 10-year JGBs at or near 0% and the recent spike in rates forced its hand. The news promptly dropped the rate and once again spiked USD/JPY above the 113.00 figure where it remains ahead of the NFPs.
Meanwhile, in UK, the PMI Services printed worse than expected coming in at 54.5 versus 56.2 the month prior. In its analysis of PMI Markit stated:
”The main area of concern is the extent to which companies’ costs are rising across the economy, with the rate of inflation accelerating to a pace not seen since before the global financial crisis. There is evidence that higher costs are deterring some companies from taking on extra staff, with the January surveys finding employment to have increased at the slowest rate since August. Only construction companies stepped up their hiring at the start of 2017.”
Today’s report continues to suggest that UK growth may have peaked in the post-Brexit environment as inflationary pressures begins to build through the system. The latest batch of UK data has shown a deceleration in growth and the trigger of Article 50 now a foregone conclusion, the slowdown may continue as European businesses begin their exodus from British Isles.
Sterling has been a relative weak trade all week long and that dynamic could continue today especially if the US NFPs beat their mark. Having broken below 1.2500 GBP/USD could test 1.2400 if US numbers prove especially strong.
The market expectations for today’s NFPs are slightly higher than the month before but still below the 200K mark at 170K. The very strong print from ADPs which suggest that the NFPs could be 220K or more have given dollar bulls some room for hope, but the two reports are not perfectly correlated and have diverged in the past.
Given the 4.7% unemployment rate, the more important data point will be the average hourly wages number. The Fed will very likely look to that report in determining if a March rate hike is warranted. The market is looking for a 0.3% rise after last month’s 0.4% gains.
Another good print could boost USD/JPY and send it towards 114.00. However, any miss will add to dollars woes as currency traders will become convinced that the Trump trade has lost its luster and liquidation could start in earnest with 112.00 once again being tested.
"The market is not a random formless mess reacting to current news events but a remarkably precise recording of the formal structure of the progress of man". - Elliot Waves: A Comprehensive Course on the wave principle I say it four times a day, Elliot said it. 'The news is not going to be a deciding factor in market movement'. It may wobble 30 pips above or below the existing move of the day, nothing more.
COMMENTARY FROM BENJAMINIS: The above statement is 100% false. Now you can see why 95% or more of ALL Forex Traders both retail and commercial lose. It is that clear. The intelligence is great however the COMMON SENSE does not exist. The only thing that the FOCUS must be on after we see the numbers is MONEY FLOW as all the WAVES will be reset. Charts cannot and will not predict the FUTURE in any consistent way. It is IMPOSSIBLE. Now back to the thoughts of suthmo.
Had a sleep, woke up Stopped out longs. I know it's due for 1.064X and halfway there. levels for a last swing up are falling through.
I have to get back on the bear. And now it will go up of course.
Pioneering the new science of trading
FINAL THOUGHT FROM BENJAMINIS: Please post your own views so that we can continue our discussions. We have 45 minutes or so before we all know a number and keep in mind the number is only the NEW FALSE PERCEPTION NUMBER. Stand back and do nothing until at least 9:00 AM and refocus on what is best to do and maybe no Forex Trades. This is a Friday and there will be MUCH UNCERTAINTY over the weekend for many reasons and the media on all sides will be reviewing everything on the Sunday News Channels such as Meet The Press and all the others to keep misleading the masses on both sides while those with REAL POWER continue to try to CONTROL ALL OF US. "THEY WILL FAIL" However that will not be evident to them for at least a number of many more years and NO HUMAN ON THIS EARTH HAS CONTROL. Only GOD has CONTROL. AMEN !!!
Quoting jusstin911
Who else picked a long? BOLD
I closed few shorts
Put a minor long. Just trying to stay awake....
few pips i got
Â
Might spike (it's Friday) I'll close long 0750 or 0770... or stop loss below.... May just hedge and wait.
Â
Who's keeping positions in the next 40 minutes???
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1486126320
Beware of robber banks (RB) and bad advisors
Der Trader All Time Return: 498.5%
Quoting jusstin911
{quote} I am more happy .. Finanly not getting a 'DOWN' move post from you.. that also makes me happy.. welcome to our LONG church
Only If you would listen to me.... now, look where we are!!
Daily Technical Analysis - Investopedia
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1486126938
It is the dust where you came from & it is the dust where you shall return
Thoughts on "smart traders"
US Non-Farm Employment Change
NFP continues to hold the lead in the ranking of dangerous indicators. A large amount of data coming into the market, can easily cause spiking quotes, talking the price up and down. Headliner Employment Change is in order, he published the first, but the market is not willing to consider it only "one".
For publications:
US Unemployment Rate
US Nonfarm Payrolls
US Average Hourly Earnings [y / y]
US Average Hourly Earnings [m / m]
US Average Weekly Hours
US Labor Force Participation Rate
The greatest attention is attracted to: Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings
Trade is conducted on Nonfarm Payrolls
Sensitivity to the extent the fact of deviation from the forecast for the NFP - blurred!
Small deviations can cause excess movement trading pairs with the same probability as large deviations from the fact that the forecast will not be able to call and small movements.
In other words, it is not necessarily that large deviations will be a lot of traffic. All traffic at the time of publication of the indicator is based on a comprehensive assessment of the indicator statistics! You almost play cat and mouse in this moment, only one (NFP), when the board will be at least five important indicators of the release.
From the background you can see different currency for trade. After the good of the British Parliament on Brexit pressure remains pound. Canadian hiding - it will follow the job market in the next Friday, etc ...
On Wednesday we received a buy signal from the optimism of ADP (246K).
ISM Manufacturing PMI and the employment component also grew: 56.1 (January) vs. 52.8 (Dec.)
Forecasts range near 170K - 180K and 4.7% for unemployment.
We omit several triggers (as it mentioned above), by and large, there is no guarantee a solid, and +/- here and there, amid the potential for conflict, has no role (almost).
NFP - a place where the trader is always extremely cautious and not encouraged by.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
DislikedWELL WELL WELL Look what happened !!! Gold is Up and Silver is Up and USD/JPY is going down and EUR/USD is down and US 30 is UP getting ready to short at the right moment. I will go back to our Forex Trading Thread and add the 5 Minute Charts now. BenjaminisIgnored
DislikedThis is interesting !!! The U.S. economy added 227,000 net new jobs in January, beating expectations for 175,000 jobs. The unemployment rate rose 4.8% from 4.7%, while the labor force participation rate edged up to 62.9% from 62.7% in December. Comments from Benjaminis: So we add 227,000 jobs (SURE) and all is well. Then we see that the participation rate goes up to 62.9% and then we see that the Unemployment Numbers went UP to 4.8 % !!! Am I missing something here ? BenjaminisIgnored
Quoting Plainview
Guys, I do not get it. If Non-Farm Employment Actual Change > Forecast = Good for currency than why EUR/USD is going up? This means you have to pay more USD for EURO - it should be the other way around. USD is getting stronger so we should pay LESS for EUR. Could you please clarify? Thank you <3
You don't get the whole picture. Hourly Av Earnings matters a lot and this time were pretty bad
...add the fact that people expecting now the the important US ISM
...it's not only the NFP show
"If you can make it intraday, you can make it anyway" - me
Quoting coldvinc
Market doesn't know what to do. I definitely don't know more than the market, so I'm staying out. This will probably be it for this week unless market suddenly finds a direction.
Really? Market knows what it wants to do. Getting us retail traders confused and frustrated is one of those goals. Trade safe and prosper.
KP
Simplicity of system + Consistent efficiency
Comments from Benjaminis: We KNOW what the MARKETS KNOW because WE just Follow the MONEY FLOW until it reverses and we execute our 4 Trade Plans using CORRELATION along with Risk Management.
Benjaminis