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The Really Useless Thread

  • #147,341
  • Jan 31, 2017 10:28am Jan 31, 2017 10:28am
Quoting mrcreosote
{quote} Hi Sisse First of all I'd like to say I do enjoy your thread here but how are we to believe in 'free markets' when we see graphs like this? Trade well! C3c6qQJVMAA8Qla.jpg;2165359 {image}
je je je....v. smart argument.

Well let me rephrase .. It's easier to understand, evaluate and forecast when macro and monetary or fiscal policies that can be technically quantify based on numbers are in play rather than those based only in emotional or political factors...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,342
  • Jan 31, 2017 10:39am Jan 31, 2017 10:39am
Waiting for the roll ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #147,343
  • Jan 31, 2017 10:44am Jan 31, 2017 10:44am
Quoting primejarvis
Waiting for the roll ....

roll up?
  • #147,344
  • Jan 31, 2017 10:50am Jan 31, 2017 10:50am
Quoting petehnm
{quote} roll up?
Down ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #147,345
  • Jan 31, 2017 10:54am Jan 31, 2017 10:54am
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} Down ....

awesome thanks...I was thinking the same but for now Ill wait till mr trump stops talking this morning maybe get a short if it goes back to 1.0810 area
  • #147,346
  • Jan 31, 2017 10:59am Jan 31, 2017 10:59am
Quoting mrcreosote
{quote} Hi Sisse First of all I'd like to say I do enjoy your thread here but how are we to believe in 'free markets' when we see graphs like this? Trade well! C3c6qQJVMAA8Qla.jpg;2165359 {image}
1.Currency
2.Debt consolidation

Guess which of this was not sold as initial EZ deal.

"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws"

In 21st century monetary system, its not the currency that is the leading factor (extracted from Rotschilds quote), its debt.

I guess you wont see that chart on economic TV too often eh?
  • #147,347
  • Jan 31, 2017 11:02am Jan 31, 2017 11:02am
Quoting petehnm
{quote} awesome thanks...I was thinking the same but for now Ill wait till mr trump stops talking this morning maybe get a short if it goes back to 1.0810 area
It's just my view ... Try getting your system if it plays out the same with my view....
Re-Incarnated
  • #147,348
  • Jan 31, 2017 11:38am Jan 31, 2017 11:38am
This possible weaken the EURO . Donald T VS Donald T.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-38808504 .
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #147,349
  • Jan 31, 2017 11:57am Jan 31, 2017 11:57am
Quoting Earleone
This possible weaken the EURO . Donald T VS Donald T. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-38808504 .
I think the opposite as EU might be perceived as The continent that stands up against Trump whereas China, Japan are mute.
  • #147,350
  • Edited 12:25pm Jan 31, 2017 12:03pm | Edited 12:25pm
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} I think the opposite as EU might be perceived as The continent that stands up against Trump whereas China, Japan are mute.
I was just thinking Euro as currency. Not that it weaken the Eurozone. I agree that it work to unite the Eurozone and in that way is positive for the EZ. ( if we can say anything is positive about it )

PS:
He will probably manage to unite like 90% of the world population against him including 60 to 80% of the population in the USA. Nothing is currently better for the world at this moment then Trump to unite the world.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #147,351
  • Jan 31, 2017 12:57pm Jan 31, 2017 12:57pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} TRY in play. Building some soft longs (USDTRY) now, but mostly tomorrows pre London to get in. LL play mid intraday with stronger higher short term drive across EMs (MXN, CNY/H, ZAR).
How it goes with MXN for you? Did you change your outlook or are you out?
  • #147,352
  • Jan 31, 2017 1:53pm Jan 31, 2017 1:53pm
Quoting Earleone
{quote} I was just thinking Euro as currency. Not that it weaken the Eurozone. I agree that it work to unite the Eurozone and in that way is positive for the EZ. ( if we can say anything is positive about it ) PS: He will probably manage to unite like 90% of the world population against him including 60 to 80% of the population in the USA. Nothing is currently better for the world at this moment then Trump to unite the world.
--> US is pushing the world to 'choose poison time' across the board. Mid and Long term is little doubt what to choose in my case if protectionist, populism and nationalism trigger a global sell off (as it usually do) later in the year Less free markets will always loose at the end so if Trump and its new junior 'watergirl' May [UK or maybe England alone for that time] go for the full monty no brainer where NO to park and until the storm pass.

--> On the short term there is a whole new world out there now. We are seeing a strong reshuffle back to YEN and Euro in currencies meaning Dollar will start loosing its shine especially after FED gets out of the way. Money will look for a more balance-risk portfolio with Trump pretty much ready to 'nationalize' (for American Standards) all capital and national investments.

--> In Equities short term the US still has the full leverage because of strong numbers and potential fiscal push to big corporations and there is very little to shop around the word. EZ is coming very strong macro numbers wise but populist are still on the rise with elections around the corner, risk and Brexit noise will keep it a bit sidelined until at least markets are clear Holland and France are going to hold Europe in the right side of the free trade and economic policy side.

--> On the more international political side. Its still way too early to call anything. The US have a massive unilateral muscle and a few free riders will happily sell themselves cheap in the short term to take advantages of markets and geopolitical gaps to be fill.

So far its only circus and kicking the door when you enter the room against weaker opponents for the media to make a feast and to please his constituency. Soon we'll see how it pans out when the honeymoon with the Russian oligarch ends, China, Europe, and even in his own 'backyard' LATAM as a whole enter in the ring ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,353
  • Jan 31, 2017 2:40pm Jan 31, 2017 2:40pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} --> US is pushing the world to 'choose poison time' across the board. Mid and Long term is little doubt what to choose in my case if protectionist, populism and nationalism trigger a global sell off (as it usually do) later in the year Less free markets will always loose at the end so if Trump and its new junior 'watergirl' May go for the full monty no brainer where NO to park and until the storm pass. --> On the short term there is a whole new world out there now. We are seeing a strong reshuffle back to YEN and Euro in currencies meaning...
I like your explanations. For people with little economy knowledge like me is a fresh way read you
Try don't lose pants never...
  • #147,354
  • Jan 31, 2017 2:41pm Jan 31, 2017 2:41pm
Quoting goosebone
Stopped on eu. ... This one likes to prove to me repeatedly how out of my league I am. Consistency continues to evade me. Got to dumb it down to my level somehow.
A shout @goosebone and anybody else interested in the conversation.

I saw your last 2 or 3 trades in the last weeks and you haven't done anything wrong but markets hasn't pay you back. You sound v. frustrated so let's open a quick ++++ exceptional iteration ++++ for the upcoming moves just for the sake of regaining synch and perspective whatever you decide to trade later.

--> Before we start. and before the close. If I ask you how much you are willing to lose in a FX trade in the next 3 months. What would be the closest answer to reality. I mean how much you are realistically willing to risk. Its not a dick swing competition, neither judgment, neither there is a right or wrong answer is just for putting trades in an investment perspective:

Question 1: How much you are willing to invest/risk:

a. $10
b. $100
c. $500
d. $1000
e. $5000

Charts coming right after...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,355
  • Jan 31, 2017 2:46pm Jan 31, 2017 2:46pm
3. 500. On A trade in the next 3 months.
  • #147,356
  • Jan 31, 2017 2:53pm Jan 31, 2017 2:53pm
5000 usd
  • #147,357
  • Jan 31, 2017 2:55pm Jan 31, 2017 2:55pm
Quoting goosebone
3
Perfect. Thanks.

This is not about capital management but the obvious apply:

--> meaning you capital should be no less than $10.000 for that otherwise you are overleveraged or/and undercapitalized.

Now lets go in order. Always from the macro to the micro as the order of analysis changes everything in trading.

--> Define your macro direction. Where are we in the mid term?

Here is a quick overview just to make it clear where we are in the outlook.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chartupdatemid.png Size: 225 KB


We entered in red zone last year via the last RMT and cleared T3 target @1.037x with the FED (classical expectation / fact case) and we started the pullback that we currently are for the advanced final potential entry.

Direction and outlook is no brainer (until now) here. Can you spot the 2 or max 3 POI (points of interest) in this chart?

...
sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,358
  • Edited 3:08pm Jan 31, 2017 2:56pm | Edited 3:08pm
[quote=sisse;9506363]{quote} A shout @goosebone and anybody else interested in the conversation. I saw your last 2 or 3 trades in the last weeks and you haven't done anything wrong but markets hasn't pay you back. You sound v. frustrated so let's open a quick ++++ exceptional iteration ++++ for the upcoming moves just for the sake of regaining synch and perspective whatever you decide to trade later. --> Before we start. and before the close. If I ask you how much you are willing to lose in a FX trade in the next 3 months. What would be the closest answer to reality. I mean how much you are realistically willing to risk. Its not a dick swing competition, neither judgment, neither there is a right or wrong answer is just for putting trades in an investment perspective: Question 1: How much you are willing to invest/risk: a. $10 b. $100 c. $500 d. $1000 e. $5000 Charts coming right after... sisse[/quo


i would go for
d.

1.last month high
2.the fliparea
3.range top
regards
  • #147,359
  • Jan 31, 2017 3:15pm Jan 31, 2017 3:15pm
...now where are we in the Short term?

--> Define you short term swing positioning MAP. We are here:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chartupdate.png Size: 78 KB


You knew that already. Short term in the top of the range on cheap tickets available. All look terrible bullish and a shift in direction looks very tempting and nearly 'unavoidable' (not talking about FA or outlook just charts and TA), isn't it?

Now we move to the third step:

What is the only 'rule' for CONSISTENT [any]trading and the only thing you have to do first, second and third:

--> Minnimize RISK

Question 2: So if you want to define risk define maximum risk TA wise (only) what is the exact area you will set yor natural max stops (Long or short is irrelevant whatever you want to choose with the information given):

Give the exact max are for example Short stops 1.124x ot Long Stops 1.059x or whatever. where you will 100% sure you were wrong in the call according to your TA.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,360
  • Edited 3:40pm Jan 31, 2017 3:21pm | Edited 3:40pm
Attachment g.
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