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  • #147,321
  • Jan 30, 2017 3:32pm Jan 30, 2017 3:32pm
Real money on the close buying the small dip. US Equities and Euro holding steady but Yen* sitting in launching platform for the BOJ. Very tradable wide range confirmed in UJ triggering the double 'choose your poison time' for the short term with a 'roll play' for today close.

Expecting lots of noise, action and real macro fundamental in play in the next few hours. BOJ first overnight in Asia for the Yen which has a clear but very wide trading range.

Then after lots of noise expected from the Murdoch/Daily Mail Brexit press in article 50 and etc etc as we will get flood with anti Europe, and Scotland, anti all until article 50 is trigger so lots of jitters in Sterling that will enter in untradable cluster fck until the BOE give the go ahead.

FED is the main dish from the macro front this week as it can trigger RMT for the next hike and all that with Tweet mode from Trump for details on the fiscal side to 'fill or kill' the expectations move in US Equities but more importantly from the FX board side inflation and Dollar.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,322
  • Jan 30, 2017 9:19pm Jan 30, 2017 9:19pm
i have boj not making any changes to monetary policy but considering future risk.... with profit taking last week should see more yen strength and test the double bottom at 112.52 ... what do you guys think?
  • #147,323
  • Jan 31, 2017 7:15am Jan 31, 2017 7:15am
Very moving session in Europe. First, good numbers keep coming from the EZ but more important inflation ticking up and we are getting close to ECB targets.

However, one more time a 'Tweet' from the US that is becoming surprisingly the leader of anti free markets in the world this time putting some pressure against Germany and the Euro but more importantly trying to artificially deflate the Dollar with political comments instead of technical ones.

--> Its getting complicate and tricky what is going on as the US is betting in 2 contradictory sides with political mood swings rather than economic reasons. I't wont end up good thats for sure as either is this one or the other in this particular case.

--> Euro to the highs one more time and keep paying handsomely on the long side short term via Trump. On the other hand the extreme hawks from Germany wont really be that disappointing with his comments for now.

--> Markets getting v. politicised in both sides of the Atlantic and we are starting to see some visibly cracks and divergences between markets, economic policy and short term political interest. On equities , I am starting, and to be honest surprisingly, (didn't expect this such a strong divergence so early in the year) becoming bearish by the minute in US Equities. Only Trump fiscal splash expectations for the big corporations is keeping on the bid side.

-->On the Euro it's in the receiving end of both UK and US strong political motivated monetary interventions and strangely at it may have sound a few months ago its's becoming (still need to clear elections and etc) the most liberal free market area and a very attractive place to park mid term while the US and UK play politics.

-->Its clear now, Euro is caught between risk on and off via US and Brexit/EU political issues and real macroeconomic forces. TA wise we are stuck in that range for over a month, unable to lock both the highs and the lows. One more time, both top and floor are 'empty' for the rest of the week, making extremely hard to manage positions for the FED....

For the 4th time in a row this month and for strictly TA reasons triggered by political tweets, it's trailing time in the mid and/or short term positions as we are inches away from a reverso play again to test the 1.08xx handle (1.084x) [getting extremely frustrating in the Euro to trade crumbs all year long so far].

Eyes on NY as we have trading time session for the open.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,324
  • Jan 31, 2017 8:12am Jan 31, 2017 8:12am
Quoting sisse
Very moving session in Europe. First, good numbers keep coming from the EZ but more important inflation ticking up and we are getting close to ECB targets. However, one more time a 'Tweet' from the US that is becoming surprisingly the leader of anti free markets in the world this time putting some pressure against Germany and the Euro but more importantly trying to artificially deflate the Dollar with political comments instead of technical ones. --> Its getting complicate and tricky what is going on as the US is betting in 2 contradictory sides...
As posted i have .084x and even a bit beyond under observation from some days and .076x has already been filled a couple of times, but now risk is higher.

In general i find unconfident in trading this messy and political biased markets (well i feel uneasy in general in this historical moment) ... mid term think euro will'be stuck in range for some time at least until some big knot is untied on one side or the other of the ocean (meantime some tweet/surprise move, especially by trump, may easily cause a deep spike).

For sure a war and an international alliances reequilibration is fought, there will be winners and loosers and blood (hope only financial). Trump wants EU weakening or even disintegration, you can say anyrthing about the man but, as a lion, he has identified EU as the weakest and sickest prey in the herd of the great world powers, the one to kill and to feed upon

My 2 cent is that Trump is playing an all-in and if he keep going full throttle and europe solve elections problems and find the way to do the minimum needed without shooting in his foot EU has the "chance of is life" to solve his problems (finacial fragmentation, etc) and become an even big player (on this have faith in Trump full throttle, less in EU actions ...)

China is a question mark, a big one, silent untill now what will do? the new strange US-UK-URSS alliance that is emerging may force China to back EU as a preferred economical partner and only viable alternative?
  • #147,325
  • Jan 31, 2017 8:36am Jan 31, 2017 8:36am
if I look at my mid term map = its super hard to trade with these political actions in place BUT if trump keeps it course without anouncing border tax adjustment, fiscal stumulous and tax cuts euro is gonna keep up via carry trade. It can now break the ST top and run for ST extrem via risk-off prior to FED (on the move now!!)

Only hawkish FED can cap the E/U forcing it into very short term chop betweem rates on USD and risk-off on EUR. Dovish FED may be contradictory as well = chop very short term (dovish FED = bearish dollar but risk-on = carry trade off = bearish eur). So seems that only trump is gonna decide the short term leg: either he moves with fiscal and tax reforms = the short term leg can happen via rates/fiscal expansion and risk-on on EUR or it does not and the risk-off takes over via destroying the post WW2 political and economic order = short term chop on EUR again!

The only problem I see that if we remain in ST chop the time window to finish the MT leg is closing via europe getting macro speed and ECB - so the sooner the happens the deeper it can go. If later we can just see a double bottom on E/U.
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  • #147,326
  • Jan 31, 2017 8:41am Jan 31, 2017 8:41am
Quoting chester123
if I look at my mid term map = its super hard to trade with these political actions in place BUT if trump keeps it course without anouncing border tax adjustment, fiscal stumulous and tax cuts euro is gonna keep up via carry trade. It can now break the ST top and run for ST extrem via risk-off prior to FED (on the move now!!) Only hawkish FED can cap the E/U forcing it into very short term chop betweem rates on USD and risk-off on EUR. Dovish FED may be contradictory as well = chop very short term (dovish FED = bearish dollar but risk-on = carry...

think we just got a trump tweet "Trump: Other countries take advantage by devaluation. So much for the strong dollar"
  • #147,327
  • Jan 31, 2017 8:44am Jan 31, 2017 8:44am
Quoting sisse
Very moving session in Europe. First, good numbers keep coming from the EZ but more important inflation ticking up and we are getting close to ECB targets. However, one more time a 'Tweet' from the US that is becoming surprisingly the leader of anti free markets in the world this time putting some pressure against Germany and the Euro but more importantly trying to artificially deflate the Dollar with political comments instead of technical ones. --> Its getting complicate and tricky what is going on as the US is betting in 2 contradictory sides...
WE have seen Draghi talking down the euro for several years
  • #147,328
  • Jan 31, 2017 9:04am Jan 31, 2017 9:04am
i wonder... trump tweeting to devalue dollar... bad reports coming out .. and equities selling off... do you think it will create mass panic?
  • #147,329
  • Jan 31, 2017 9:09am Jan 31, 2017 9:09am
Stopped on eu. No Loss this time cuz I got my tp1 but breather time for me. Looking for a market with fundamentals easier for me to grasp. (Hog futures?) This one likes to prove to me repeatedly how out of my league I am. Consistency continues to evade me. Got to dumb it down to my level somehow.
  • #147,330
  • Jan 31, 2017 9:15am Jan 31, 2017 9:15am
enthusiasm ....sell.
  • #147,331
  • Jan 31, 2017 9:20am Jan 31, 2017 9:20am
Another very strong opening range with Trump tweet single hand making a mockery of free markets every single day. Expecting this to last the first 100 days until the honeymoon is over. Markets wont like this for long and will end up in tears if we doesn't change soon.

Dollar feeling the after shocks with Euro finally ticking to the 1.08xx handle getting stronger and stronger as best short term risk off alternative. Stops absolutely naked at the highs but is no point r:r in closing manually intraday so sitting tight with same level same trades same all....

More importantly US Equities sending major signals to Trump that they need a Tweet on the real economy soon before uncertainty start trickling down on market sentiment.


Quoting roobii
{quote} think we just got a trump tweet "Trump: Other countries take advantage by devaluation. So much for the strong dollar"
Indeed.

Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} WE have seen Draghi talking down the euro for several years
??? I am not sure what you mean

Draghi has been saving the boat pumping up the Euro from the abyss almost every single year since the debt crisis. Thats his actual job description.

One is a technocrat whose job is making monetary policy (that has been consistent with inflation, rates and QE) and the other is a politician who is the US President who his trying to defy economic logic with two opposite policies for political reasons.

He is trying to make Dollar skyrocket with his economic plan and protectionism while at the same pulling it back down with his tweets.... This may help to visualize what is going on in monetary policy terms:

Attached Image


...and you know what happen when you keep pulling a rubber band to opposite sides ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,332
  • Jan 31, 2017 9:25am Jan 31, 2017 9:25am
Quoting sisse
Another very strong opening range with Trump tweet single hand making a mockery of free markets. Markets wont like this for long and will end up in tears if we doesn't change soon. Dollar feeling the after shocks with Euro finally ticking to the 1.08xx handle getting stronger and stronger as best short term risk off alternative. Stops absolutely naked at the highs but is no point r:r in closing manually intraday so sitting tight with same level same trades same all.... More importantly US Equities sending major signals to Trump that they need a...
hey sisse is there any historical evidence of what trump is doing in another economy to see what the effects would be?
  • #147,333
  • Jan 31, 2017 9:30am Jan 31, 2017 9:30am
Quoting roobii
{quote} hey sisse is there any historical evidence of what trump is doing in another economy to see what the effects would be?
hi read this article.

http://www.marctomarket.com/2017/01/...nd-dollar.html

excerpt:

Looser fiscal and tighter monetary policy was the policy mix under Reagan-Volcker that led to a dramatic dollar overshoot in the early 1980s and was the first dollar rally since the breakdown of Bretton Woods in 1971. It was also the policy mix in Germany when the Berlin Wall fell. The fiscal laxity needed to finance the leveraged buyout of East Germany was offset by the tightening of monetary policy by the Bundesbank. The Deutschemark overshoot that resulted spurred an ERM crisis that ultimately paved the way for monetary union.

so any furter research may focus on those two periods
  • #147,334
  • Jan 31, 2017 9:35am Jan 31, 2017 9:35am
Quoting chester123
{quote} hi read this article. http://www.marctomarket.com/2017/01/...nd-dollar.html excerpt: Looser fiscal and tighter monetary policy was the policy mix under Reagan-Volcker that led to a dramatic dollar overshoot in the early 1980s and was the first dollar rally since the breakdown of Bretton Woods in 1971. It was also the policy mix in Germany when the Berlin Wall fell. The fiscal laxity needed to finance the leveraged buyout of East Germany was offset by the tightening of monetary policy by the Bundesbank. The Deutschemark overshoot...
nice ... thanx for the article... reading now...
  • #147,335
  • Jan 31, 2017 9:35am Jan 31, 2017 9:35am
Quoting roobii
{quote} hey sisse is there any historical evidence of what trump is doing in another economy to see what the effects would be?
Well more than his economic plan (still waiting for details) is the monetary side tweets on talking down Dollar what is short -circuiting. On examples, on the monetary side, well the opposite will be easier to reply 'When has something like that ever worked'.

Despite technicalities, you can choose any.

Interesting cases in terms of size, scope and relation. Germany and Europe in general in the interwar period. You have the the break up of the gold standard after the 70s. You will have nice flawless examples of similar actions both in the US and UK (when the UK [last country in Europe before Greece] was bailout by the IMF). More recent decades you have plenty of cases from Mexico, the Asian Tigers and some complex and obscure cases in small former Soviet Countries and Latam.

This is not a political view or a judgment of the validity of Trump policy. Its a technical argument of simply 2 opposite concepts that cannot work together without triggering a monetary policy fck up in the middle. He needs to choose one or the other ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,336
  • Jan 31, 2017 9:48am Jan 31, 2017 9:48am
if still gold is not skyrocketing does not it mean there is nothing to worry ...except shaking.
  • #147,337
  • Jan 31, 2017 9:51am Jan 31, 2017 9:51am
Quoting sisse
....watch-out for yen ...shortcircuiting and losing the 114.xx handle via risk. (@ goosebone check the cheatsheet ) and we have BOJ in play. We are about to trigger a change in short term outlooks (via risk) and set a major wide volatility range (both sides clashing with forces in opposite directions) unlocking soft 112.3x [check] before a rather sharp test 105.8x with a short stopover in between (107.9x)....
...and I will take that. Clearing first target in Yen on the test 112.3x making things a lot easier to manage at least here for the FED. Well done all riding Yen.

Very different flows the last few days. First time since 2012 that we have a soft risk off event triggered by US uncertainty making Dollar lose it's shine in favour of Yen and Euro.

Tracking very closely US equites as losing the current floor wont be that nice ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,338
  • Jan 31, 2017 10:14am Jan 31, 2017 10:14am
...and Europe going home with finally DX testing major and key 99.4x ....it's crunching time again across the FX board...

Quoting goosebone
Stopped on eu. No Loss this time cuz I got my tp1 but breather time for me. Looking for a market with fundamentals easier for me to grasp. (Hog futures?) This one likes to prove to me repeatedly how out of my league I am. Consistency continues to evade me. Got to dumb it down to my level somehow.
I hear you mate. Trading red zones on the final exhaustion leg (especially mid term) is a very very complex and advanced environment (remember the sketch annotations...well now we are live). The 'widow maker' whatever is the TF ....

I actually have no problems understanding fundamentals what I find a lot more complicate and a pain in the ass are the talking heads and politicians fiddling with free markets ...

You sound frustrated with the Euro. I would be lying to you if I tell you that it has been a nice 'expected' ride this month but my 2 cents and as painfully long this leg has been ....we still stuck in the same short term range with FED still to come which is the deal maker ... just to put it in perspective and not to dismiss that those long on the short term pullback this month has been flawless and pain free (now on hindsight of course)....we'll update charts later...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,339
  • Jan 31, 2017 10:22am Jan 31, 2017 10:22am
Quoting goosebone
Stopped on eu. No Loss this time cuz I got my tp1 but breather time for me. Looking for a market with fundamentals easier for me to grasp. (Hog futures?) This one likes to prove to me repeatedly how out of my league I am. Consistency continues to evade me. Got to dumb it down to my level somehow.

On short side there probability side were against bears , 0.773 was pretty much naked and done deal to break if thats where you were hidding. If you were long then its sad becouse after the micro squeeze 0.66Xish if you were wiped there on BE you could reentered. Dollar side especially was clean view to go, no need for complex mapping on this one after 003 failed to break on micros on further upside and 0996X failed to bounce on probability side its generally one way to go (completed the probability target at 0988 (EU 080). EUR map was a bit more complicated but not that much more. I guess it aint much help now posting while development is done take it for what it is.
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  • #147,340
  • Jan 31, 2017 10:23am Jan 31, 2017 10:23am
Quoting sisse
the talking heads and politicians fiddling with free markets ...
Hi Sisse
First of all I'd like to say I do enjoy your thread here but how are we to believe in 'free markets' when we see graphs like this?
Trade well!
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used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
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