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AUD/USD

  • #100,541
  • Jan 26, 2017 1:26pm Jan 26, 2017 1:26pm
Guys Ausud in now in a correction.. What for this to complete before taking any long term buys

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  • #100,542
  • Jan 27, 2017 10:28pm Jan 27, 2017 10:28pm
New pattern to look for on a bigger picture.

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  • #100,543
  • Jan 27, 2017 11:34pm Jan 27, 2017 11:34pm
  •  damo
  • | Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Chart Pattern & Trend Trader | 217 Posts
Quoting Jfrancis
New pattern to look for on a bigger picture. {image} {image}
Hey Jf, is there an alternate pattern to this? The fundamentals here in Aus do not support a bullish move. The economy is really bad.

damo
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #100,544
  • Jan 28, 2017 4:46am Jan 28, 2017 4:46am
Damo is right.. AUD is going to backfire.... there is a big sell on USD currency vs most other currencies.

Australia is in a bad place.
  • #100,545
  • Jan 28, 2017 6:06am Jan 28, 2017 6:06am
My 10 Billion Cents .. My Easy and simple plan for next week...
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  • #100,546
  • Jan 28, 2017 8:41pm Jan 28, 2017 8:41pm
Quoting damo
{quote} Hey Jf, is there an alternate pattern to this? The fundamentals here in Aus do not support a bullish move. The economy is really bad. damo
No sorry. My analysis are purely technical based. I only trade the patterns that are formed in the market.
  • #100,547
  • Jan 29, 2017 1:30am Jan 29, 2017 1:30am
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  • #100,548
  • Jan 29, 2017 2:04am Jan 29, 2017 2:04am
Quoting damo
{quote} Hey Jf, is there an alternate pattern to this? The fundamentals here in Aus do not support a bullish move. The economy is really bad. damo
It doesn't matter the shape the Australian economy, it is all about perception. Despite that, there are multiple factors that can contribute towards appreciation of one currency, especially exotic ones like Aussie and Kiwi like: interest rates, etc...
  • #100,549
  • Jan 29, 2017 4:50am Jan 29, 2017 4:50am
Quoting ruma29
73_20170127211419.gif;2161160 {image}
Yes ruma29 there is plenty of resistance above .76XX that can be expected to provide heavy going this week (given the news expected).

4 Hr chart shows a pattern which may well play out...
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  • #100,550
  • Jan 29, 2017 6:48am Jan 29, 2017 6:48am
Quoting damo
{quote} Hey Jf, is there an alternate pattern to this? The fundamentals here in Aus do not support a bullish move. The economy is really bad. damo
Our economy has been bad for years, still the aussie has gone down and up. One thing I've learned is that you cannot predict short-term price movements based on your perception of the health of the economy.

Until something big happens like the AAA rating is lost, nothing is going to affect the currency enough to make it plummet.

AUDUSD looks toppy, but I don't see any clear reason to take any trades. I will be looking to buy above a strong 76 close or below a 75 close. Until then, it's just ranging randomly.
  • #100,551
  • Jan 29, 2017 7:01am Jan 29, 2017 7:01am
Longer Term View
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  • #100,552
  • Jan 29, 2017 2:39pm Jan 29, 2017 2:39pm
Quoting jusstin911
Longer Term View {image}
i agree
  • #100,553
  • Jan 29, 2017 5:18pm Jan 29, 2017 5:18pm
Quoting Starcraftmaz
{quote} Our economy has been bad for years, still the aussie has gone down and up. One thing I've learned is that you cannot predict short-term price movements based on your perception of the health of the economy. Until something big happens like the AAA rating is lost, nothing is going to affect the currency enough to make it plummet. AUDUSD looks toppy, but I don't see any clear reason to take any trades. I will be looking to buy above a strong 76 close or below a 75 close. Until then, it's just ranging randomly.
the way the current govt is borrowing the AAA being downgraded is just a matter of time
I will get my head around this, but always can be wrong
  • #100,554
  • Jan 29, 2017 8:52pm Jan 29, 2017 8:52pm
Quoting lioslim
{quote} remember what you just said and post guru
I hope you can get past whatever hatred you have for me and see how the market moves and is going into correction.

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  • #100,555
  • Jan 30, 2017 1:53am Jan 30, 2017 1:53am
Quoting Jfrancis
{quote} I hope you can get past whatever hatred you have for me and see how the market moves and is going into correction. {image} {image}
yes i love it
Its definitely consolidating. you may be right, can go up
I am favoring the bearish set up. the dark blue channel (which is the current resistance) its a monthly declining trendline, it will be hard to break it up now.
the yellow channel is the correction( if we favor the bearish set up)
so why bearish
A) technical
-touching a monthly declining trendline(which has never been broken)
-braking the current uptrend channel( the yellow one), so = consolidation or changing trend direction
-daily spinning top candle and hanging men as well
B) fundamental
- FOMC minutes( mostly positive expecting 3/4 rate hike from USD vs no cut or raise for AUD)
- NFP fairly low number for expectations

Thats whay I will go short. But I may be wrong , always have a SL
So We should see , may be you are right Jfrancis


world hold on

-
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  • #100,556
  • Edited Jan 31, 2017 12:01am Jan 30, 2017 11:27pm | Edited Jan 31, 2017 12:01am
  •  damo
  • | Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Chart Pattern & Trend Trader | 217 Posts
Quoting Starcraftmaz
{quote} Our economy has been bad for years, still the aussie has gone down and up. One thing I've learned is that you cannot predict short-term price movements based on your perception of the health of the economy. Until something big happens like the AAA rating is lost, nothing is going to affect the currency enough to make it plummet. AUDUSD looks toppy, but I don't see any clear reason to take any trades. I will be looking to buy above a strong 76 close or below a 75 close. Until then, it's just ranging randomly.
Remember the metals boom when WA was the economic powerhouse? Well WA has since lost its credit rating and unemployment is sky-hi. NSW and Vic states are being propped up with fed govt taxes like GST. However, there is no economy or produce there either, so it will come crashing down. Holden is set to close this year along with Ford and possibly Toyota and Nissan. Today another mine (Iluka) closed down axing several hundred jobs.

The only reason the Aus$ goes up is that the Brits and the Americans still believe that the economy is booming. I get calls every second day from brokers in these two countries who are in shock when I tell them how bad our economy really is. Our backstabbing pollies should be hung (Gillard first) for the lies they tell and the damage they have caused.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #100,557
  • Jan 30, 2017 11:59pm Jan 30, 2017 11:59pm
Quoting damo
....Our backstabbing pollies should be hung (Gillard first) for the lies they tell and the damage they have caused.
Does reported data support your story?
  • #100,558
  • Edited 2:09am Jan 31, 2017 1:44am | Edited 2:09am
  •  damo
  • | Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Chart Pattern & Trend Trader | 217 Posts
I'm not sure what part you are questioning, but re my story, I've lived and worked here all my life and have never seen so many colleagues out of work. The poor state of the economy is all anyone talks about. Re the reported data, it is progressively negative, last month there was tremendous pressure for out pollies to admit we are in a recession, they keep putting it off month by month stating "If the data is bad next month we will announce it". This goes on an on.

Also, the method that Australia reports its data is different to the rest of the world. Abbott tried to correct this about two years ago, he sent the stats in such a spin they had to go back to the old (manipulated) methods of data collection and reporting.

For example, if husband suddenly becomes unemployed but his wife works, he cannot be counted unemployed or receive any assistance unless BOTH are out of work.

Hey ruma29, I'm curious, from where you reside, what was the message you received re the AUS economy?
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #100,559
  • Jan 31, 2017 3:27am Jan 31, 2017 3:27am
Quoting damo
I'm not sure what part you are questioning...
don't get me wrong , I am not questioning anything : you said closing automotive industry, mining........Our backstabbing pollies should be hung (Gillard first) for the lies they tell and the damage they have caused....

so all of this you said should be reflected somehow in economic data...I just ask does economic data that australia reports to world ( employment, GDP...etc) reflects what you said...I assume you know better, since you live there , than me who never been there...

That's all.
  • #100,560
  • Jan 31, 2017 7:18am Jan 31, 2017 7:18am
  •  damo
  • | Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Chart Pattern & Trend Trader | 217 Posts
Hi rum29, I wrote that in a rush, it wasn't meant to look as though I was having a go at you. I also worked in politics for 18 years, I left becuase I was sick of typing up so many official documents that lie about our economy. Over here, everywhere you look its doom and gloom, the government spends more money and time fiddling the figures that actually correcting them. Think about this, name 10 industries we have in Australia. Now thats too hard, so name 5, thats also to hard so I dare anyone to name 1. And no, don't say mining, they are closing faster than it takes for a shovel to hit the dirt. Besides, there was no refining done over here, we just dug the dirt out and sold it. Once refined we repurchased it for a higher price. Go figure!

During the boom my home state (W.A.) brought in more money than almost any other state/ect.. in the world. Somehow, within a few years we are broke, unemployment everywhere and the govenment is bankrupt, and yes we lost our AAA rating. For those who don't believe me, read here:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-1...rating/4965982
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-12-1...y-2017/5150034
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-10-0...-years/7909836
http://www.smh.com.au/business/minin...05-gnbn39.html
https://www.australianmining.com.au/...o-impairments/
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-2...e-jobs/8041536

Also, the data being released is coming out negative, these are the cracks showing from a decade of cover-ups. I guess because I'm local I know what data to look at and what not to. But if you do a quick google you'll see all of the negative data I was talking about. Regarding all the lies the gov. tells, I could write a book so i won't go on. I just can't believe how gullible Australian's are. If it were the US or UK they would make a movie about it but in Australia we just like to "grin and bear it".
Trade what you see, not what you think.
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