Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

One of the BEST Analysts in the World and Manager of the Hussman Funds speaks out.

http://dollarcollapse.com/stock-pric...-point-coming/

Snippet:

Major Inflection Point Coming

JANUARY 30, 2017
Fund manager John Hussman is always good for dramatic charts. Here’s a recent one:
http://i0.wp.com/dollarcollapse.com/...size=600%2C507


This ratio is even scarier than it looks, says Hussman:

Historically-reliable valuation measures now approach those observed at the 2000 bubble peak. Yet even this comparison overlooks the fact that in 2000, the overvaluation featured a subset of very large-capitalization stocks that were breathtakingly overvalued, while most stocks were more reasonably valued (see Sizing Up the Bubble for details). In many ways, the current speculative episode is worse, because it has extended to virtually all risk-assets. To offer some idea of the precipice the market has reached, this chart shows the median price/revenue ratio of individual S&P 500 component stocks. This median now stands just over 2.45, easily the highest level in history. The longer-term norm for the S&P 500 price/revenue ratio is less than 1.0. Even a retreat to 1.3, which we’ve observed at many points even in recent cycles, would take the stock market to nearly half of present levels.

One of the reasons share prices have risen so dramatically relative to revenues is that corporations are earning a lot more on each dollar of sales these days. How are they doing that? By squeezing their workers. The following chart, from the Economic Policy Institute shows labor’s share of corporate income plunging recently.
http://i1.wp.com/dollarcollapse.com/...size=600%2C431

The next chart illustrates the same point from a different angle. Workers, it seems, have been producing more per hour but their pay hasn’t kept up as their bosses held onto more of the resulting profit.
http://i0.wp.com/dollarcollapse.com/...size=600%2C299

A big part of this has been due to offshoring. If you close a factory where the workers make $30 an hour and set up in a place where your new workers make $5, then the $25 difference flows to the bottom line. Other contributors are automation, which is both inexorable and hugely favorable for the guys who own the robots, and the fact that the minimum wage in many states has kept up with neither the true inflation rate nor the increase in free-trade driven corporate earnings.

As EPI’s Josh Bivens puts it:

This 6.8 percentage-point decline in labor’s share of corporate income might not seem like a lot, but if labor’s share had not fallen, employees in the corporate sector would have $535 billion more in their paychecks today. If this amount was spread over the entire labor force (not just corporate sector employees) this would translate into a $3,770 raise for each worker.

For stock market investors, the scary thing about this imbalance between capital and labor is that it’s only temporary. As the details and magnitude of the scam have been exposed, the political tide has shifted. At the national level, fed-up US workers have installed an anti-free trade administration that is already tilting the playing field towards domestic workers. At the state and local level, calls for a higher minimum wage are being heard and acted upon. A major French party has even nominated a presidential candidate who wants to tax robots.

So it’s safe to assume that the above charts will develop serious inflection points going forward, as a rising share of profits flow to the nether regions of the org chart and investors respond by lowering the value they place on a given dollar of corporate revenues.

As Hussman notes, just a return to 1990s valuation levels would cut the average US stock in half.

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/

Snippet: His funds managed...

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/theFunds.html

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ops+to+zero%29

Snippet:
Geopolitical pundits were caught by surprise last Thursday when Donald Trump told ABC he would “absolutely do safe zones in Syria for the people", a statement that was has been viewed as a precursor to further escalation of US intervention in the region. They were just as surprised overnight when instead of challening Trump's decision to potentially send more troops into Syria, Russia Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Moscow may support the US initiative to establish so-called ‘safe zones’ for refugees in Syria, but added that the plan would require close cooperation with the UN and approval from Syrian President Bashar Assad’s government.


“If this is about the people who were forced to leave their homes by the conflict, […] getting their basic needs covered, […] then I think that the idea to create areas within Syria for those internally displaced could be discussed with the UN’s High Commissioner for Refugees and other organizations,” Lavrov said cited by RT.

Lavrov said the American proposal to create secure areas for refugees within Syria was put forward in the context of migrant flows to the neighboring countries, the Middle East, as well as Europe, and “at the end of the day, the US."

He noted that the US initiative is completely different from what Western countries proposed at various stages of the Syrian war. "There have been ideas of creating some areas where an alternative Syrian government could sit, and use those areas for regime change." Such a scheme was seen in Libya, where the establishment of an alternative government in Benghazi was used as a pretext for the Western-led invasion to topple the regime of Muammar Gaddafi, Lavrov explained, adding that the Libyan intervention went ahead despite no green light from the UN Security Council.

While promising, the proposal would require negotiations with Damascus to agree on the principles of creating such safe zones on Syrian territory, Lavrov added.

However, just hours after his interview, the narrative regained some sense of normalcy after the state-run Sana news agency published a statement from the government pouring cold water all over the proposed plan, and saying that any attempt to install safe zones without its consent would constitute an "unsafe action" that is a "violation of Syria's sovereignity." Syria's foreign ministry and the United Nations refugee agency had agreed on the issue during a meeting in Damascus, SANA said.

According to a document seen by Reuters, Trump is expected to order the Pentagon and State Department to craft a plan for setting up the safe zones, a move that could risk escalation of U.S. military involvement in Syria's conflict. Rebel backers including Qatar have welcomed Trump's support for safe zones, and Turkey says it is waiting to see the outcome of the U.S. president's pledge. As noted previosly, cCreation of safe zones could ratchet up U.S. military involvement in Syria, including increased U.S. air power to enforce "no fly" restrictions and ground forces to protect civilians in those areas.

But where things again take a twist for the bizarre, is a report over the weekend from Al Arabiya according to which news has been circulating on the internet since Friday stating that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is experiencing serious health problems. The website reports that according to some media outlets said that Assad had suffered a stroke; while others said that he was shot and has been taken to Damascus Hospital for treatment. Some details:
France’s Le Point, speculated that Assad might have been assassinated by his personal Iranian Bodyguard Mehdi al-Yaacoubi, going so far as to say that he shot him in the head.

Lebanese newspaper, al-Mustaqbal, quoted “reliable sources” as saying that Assad suffered from a cerebral infraction and was transferred to Damascus Hospital where he is being treated under high security.

As for the Saudi newspaper Okaz, Assad is suffering from a “brain tumor.” He tried to cover up his illness through short and frequent appearances. According to its sources, Assad is being treated by a Russian-Syrian medical team on a weekly basis, adding that he has undergone medical tests when he was in Moscow in October.

Furthermore, pro-Syrian regime Lebanese newspaper al-Diyar reported on Friday that Assad suffered from a stroke, but later denied the news. There were also rumors that Assad is at the American University Hospital (AUH) in Beirut. However, Al Arabiya contacted the hospital and no information on the issue was given. Al Arabiya has also tried to contact Damascus Hospital, but there has been no response.
On the other hand, in a statement carried by the Presidency of the Syrian Arab Republic page on Facebook, Syrian authorities said that such rumors were incorrect.

While the rumor remains unsubstantiated, the death of Assad is sure to complicate any political resolution in Syria, as it would immediate promp both sides in the proxy war to present their handpicked candidates ahead of an election for the country's next president as suddenly the political - and not military - process will become the pathway to decide who has veto rights over any potential Qatar nat gas pipeline crossing the nation and entering Europe. If so, expect Rex Tillerson to be very busy over the coming months as Syria once again becomes a primary object of US diplomacy in the middle east.

https://mishtalk.com/2017/01/30/anot...ent-explained/

Snippet:
Another Greek WTF Showdown Moment Explained

30MondayJan 2017

Posted by Mish | January 30, 2017 1:58:18 | Economics

The IMF has once again threatened to pull out of the Troika following a warning that Eurogroup Loan Measures Not Enough for Greek Debt.

Greek debt yields had already been rising and spiked on the news.

Lets take a look at whats happening, culminating with an explanation of seemingly preposterous positions from all involved.
In the IMFs baseline scenario, Greeces government debt will reach 275 percent of its gross domestic product by 2060, when its financing needs will represent 62 percent of GDP, the report obtained by Bloomberg says. The government estimates public debt around 180 percent of GDP at present.

Europe Responds
The IMF board is set to discuss Greeces ability to service its debt on Feb. 6. The fund has resisted pressure from countries including Germany and the Netherlands to contribute to the bailout program, seeing it as doomed unless Greece takes further steps to rein in spending or euro-area governments ease the terms of the loans.

Europes aid program for Greece is credible and backed by contingency measures to handle unforeseen events, a spokesman for the European Stability Mechanism, an EU agency that provides bailout loans to Greece, said in e-mailed statement Sunday.

IMF Proposals
As in the past, the IMF is proposing that Europe extend grace periods and maturity dates on the loans. The document also calls for further deferral of interest payments and to lock in interest rates.

Greek debt is highly unsustainable and even with the full implementation of policies agreed under the European Stability Mechanism program, public debt and financing needs will become explosive in the long run, the document says. A substantial restructuring of European loans to Greece is required to restore debt sustainability, it says.

The IMF agrees with Greeces euro-area creditors on one point. Both want Greece to introduce a law triggering austerity measures if the country fails to maintain a budget surplus before interest payments of 3.5 percent of GDP. Greek Finance Minister Euclid Tsakalotos last week rejected that demand as unacceptable.

Greek Bond Yields Soar
Reuters reports Greek Bond Yields Soar on Worries about IMF role in Bailout.
Yields on short-dated bonds spiked 300 basis points, on track for their biggest one-day jump since July 2015, while 10-year bond yields rose to their highest in almost three months.

Germany said on Monday it believed the IMF would participate and that it was too early to start thinking about other possible scenarios.
But concerns were heightened after a leaked report that the Fund expects Greek debt to explode to 275 percent of GDP by 2060, analysts said.

Theres a bit of disquiet regarding the IMFs role, said Orlando Green, European fixed income strategist at Credit Agricole.
The bottom line is that the IMF wants debt relief for Greece and the EU has taken baby steps towards this, but it is not what the IMF is looking for long-term. When there are divisions between the EU and IMF, that arouses concerns about Greece.

He was answering a question about a report in the Bild newspaper that said Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble would argue for a Greek exit from the euro zone should the IMF withdraw from the third bailout programme.


Short-dated government bond yields in Greece rose as far as 9.98 percent, their highest level in about seven months.
Five and 10-year Greek bond yields also rose sharply, with 10-year yields climbing 50 bps to around 7.76 percent their highest since early November.

Perpetual Nonsense
The IMF argues correctly that Greek debt is unsustainable. Previously the IMF correctly argued Greece could not maintain a primary account surplus of 3.5 percent.

Yet the IMF now demands Greece automatically implement rules forcing it to have a primary account surplus of 3.5 percent of GDP as far as the eye can see.
Last week Eurointelligence reported that Greek officials were elated the much-despised IMF might exit the program. Although Greece hates the IMF, the IMF has at least been partially on Greeces side, arguing for debt reductions.

Were the IMF to actually pull out to happen, Schaeuble wants Greece out of the Eurozone.
Meanwhile, Eurozone officials pretend the program is working when they know full well its not.

WTF Moments
This is one of those WTF moments where statements from Greece, from the IMF, and also the Eurozone make no apparent sense.
Yet, despite the obviously apparent nonsense, its possible to piece together whats happening.

1. Neither Germany nor the Netherlands is willing to throw Greece the smallest of bones for fear of election consequences. Its far easier for Eurozone nannycrats to pretend things are running smoothly.
2. Schaeuble has long wanted Greece out of the Eurozone. But Germany does not want to take the blame. Instead, Schaeuble wants the IMF or Greece to take the blame.
3. The IMF does not want the blame either, so it takes a preposterous stance that the debt is not sustainable but a 3.5% primary account surplus for as far as the eye can see is sustainable. The IMF takes this view despite having argued many times that 3.5% is not sustainable.
4. By pretending to now be in favor of 3.5% perpetually, the IMF can argue it is not one-sided to Greece.
5. Despite the fact the IMF is more on Greeces side than Germany or the Eurozone nannycrats, Greece hates the IMF so much that its position of not wanting the IMF involved overrides common sense.
6. As an alternative to point 5, consider the possibility that Greece wants outs of the Eurozone, but none of the politicians want to take the blame. Instead, the politicians want to blame the IMF or Germany and are just itching for the IMF to get the hell out so they could do what they wanted to years ago (exit the eurozone). In this possibility, Greece looks to place the blame elsewhere and is waiting for the right moment.

Troika Blame Game Theory
Points 1-4 are certain. Points 5-6 are pick one. Despite the apparent absurdity of conflicting views and the IMFs changing stance, blame game theory explains all you need to know. Here is a shorter synopsis.

1. Greece wants to blame the IMF and Germany
2. Germany wants to blame Greece and the IMF
3. The IMF wants to blame Greece and Germany

Mike Mish Shedlock

NEW IMPORTANT DEVELOPMENT - TRAVEL BAN...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ops+to+zero%29

Snippet:
In what those with a flair for the dramatic might be allowed to call "mutiny", Deputy Attorney General Sally Yates, who is the current acting Attorney General, has given orders to Justice Department lawyers not to defend Trump's executive order.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...70130_AG_0.jpg
Her just released statement is below:
On January 27, 2017, the President signed an Executive Order regarding immigrants and refugees from certain Muslim-majority countries. The order has now been challenged in a number of jurisdictions. As the Acting Attorney General, it is my ultimate responsibility to determine the position of the Department of Justice in these actions.

My role is different from that of the Office of Legal Counsel (OLC), which, through administrations of both parties, has reviewed Executive Orders for form and legality before they are issued. OLC's review is limited to the narrow question of whether, in OLC's view, a proposed Executive Order is lawful on its face and properly drafted. Its review does not take account of statements made by an administration or it surrogates close in time to the issuance of an Executive Order that may bear on the order's purpose. And importantly, it does not address whether any policy choice embodied in an Executive Order is wise or just.

Similarly, in litigation, DOJ Civil Division lawyers are charged with advancing reasonable legal arguments that can be made supporting an Executive Order. But my role as leader of this institution is different and broader. My responsibility is to ensure that the position of the Department of Justice is not only legally defensible, but is informed by our best view of what the law is after consideration of all the facts. In addition, I am responsible for ensuring that the positions we take in court remain consistent with this institution's solemn obligation to always seek justice and stand for what is right. At present, I am not convinced that the defense of the Executive Order is consistent with these responsibilities nor am I convinced that the Executive Order is lawful.

Consequently, for as long as I am the Acting Attorney General, the Department of Justice will not present arguments in defense of the Executive Order, unless and until I become convinced that it is appropriate to do so.


While it is clear that Yates is making a purely political statement, her glaring insubordination to the Trump administration will take on a largely symbolic hue, and may be imitated by various other government agencies which still have interim or permanent democratic leadership, as is the case with every instance of political "mutiny."


As The New York Times notes, Mr. Trump has the authority to fire Ms. Yates, but as the top Senate-confirmed official at the Justice Department, she is the only one authorized to sign foreign surveillance warrants, an essential function at the department.

That said, Donald Trump's response, once he realizes he may have a mini mutiny on his hands, should be interesting.

USD/JPY Chart

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...9&d=1485824874

Bank of Japan decision in the next few hours.


Benjaminis

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ops+to+zero%29


NEWS FLASH !!!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...n-ban-iykwbo7j

Bank of Japan Announcement

http://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1701a.pdf

5 Minute Chart USD/JPY

http://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=USDJPY&tf=m5


Benjaminis

More on DISCIPLINE and Common Sense

 

1. mrhigurashi
2. Joined Mar 2015 | Status: Pending | 783 Posts | Invisible

Most traders will say that a big part of becoming a good trader is to control emotion. However it is clearly evident from peoples posts that many traders have trouble controlling this.

Sometimes its post where they discuss how "I should have waited" or i should have done this or that.... The other part is how quick to react to other people and how emotional they get when posting.

If someone tells you that you are wrong or how you trade is wrong, why can you not just say "Thanks for the advice" and move on with your day? Why do people insist on getting into arguments that are ultimately un-winnable because each person has their own beliefs and agendas.

If a trade goes against you, do you get angry and revenge trade? Or do you just get over it, learn something and move on to the next one? Id say most people would go with the first answer as their posts seem to reflect this need to be right and get revenge...

If your a great trader, or even a good one then that is good for you. Why do you feel the need to have others agree with you? One thing successful people have is confidence. Always trying to prove yourself and argue until the point someone tells you that you are correct is both narcissistic and lacks any confidence...

Im no guru, nor do i claim to be. And im sure many people will disagree with my post or what i say, but thats fine. My way of thinking works for me and thats the only person i need it to work for.

http://wolfstreet.com/2017/01/30/is-...-big-to-solve/

Snippet:
They said it was contained, but now hit the largest bank.


By Don Quijones, Spain & Mexico, editor at WOLF STREET.

Ever since the European Commission and ECB jointly decided that Italys government could bend EU banking rules out of all recognition in order to bail out the countrys third largest bank, Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Europes financial stocks have been on a tear. But the good times were brought to a grinding halt Monday after Italys largest bank, Unicredit, which employs 55,000 people in 17 countries, announced losses for 2016 of 11.8 billion.

By the banks logic, it would have announced profits if it hadnt had to write off 12.2 billion, including billions of euros of non-performing loans (NPLs) festering on its balance sheets.

But it got worse. In the registration document for its pending recapitalization, published on its website today, Unicredit also announced that its capital ratios at the end of 2016 might fall short of ECB requirements. It was enough to prompt a 5.45% slide in its shares. As detected in the ECBs latest stress test, Unicredit already had the slimmest capital buffer of all Europes Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs). And it just got slimmer.

The reality today is not comforting: a bank that is officially too big to fail, with over 1 trillion of assets on its books, just admitted that things are even worse than initially feared. Somehow, Unicredit will need to raise 13 billion in new capital by the end of June. If successful, it would be the biggest capital expansion of Italian stock market history.

Earlier this month, the bank has pushed through a 10:1 reverse stock split, cutting its shares outstanding by a factor of 10 and multiplying the share price by 10. So its shares today plunged 5.45% to 26.20 instead of to, say, 2.62. It makes the shares look more palatable, but it does absolutely nothing to banks market capitalization, which is down to just 16.2 billion.

The bank is also planning to cut 14,000 jobs by 2019, close 944 of its 3,800 branches, and offload almost 18 billion of bad loans a gargantuan ask even at the best of times. And for Unicredit and Italy as a whole, these are most certainly not the best of times.

The Italian government has so far pledged 20 billion of taxpayer funds to partially bail out the bondholders of Monte dei Paschi and of a clutch of other banks that will probably include Banca Popolare di Vicenza, Veneto Banca and Genoa-based Carige. Thats already four times the initial estimated outlay of 5 billion. Expect it to keep growing.



It was hoped that the governments intervention would, at the very least help, steady investor nerves in anticipation of Unicredits high-risk capital expansion. Unicredits new CEO Jean-Paul Mustier more or less admitted as much when he claimed in December that he was confident MPSs efforts to raise capital would be resolved by the end of December and would have no impact on his own banks fundraising.

But Italys financial problems are not contained to MPS; they encompass Italys entire rickety financial edifice, which is home to roughly one-third of Europes entire reported stock of non-performing loans. Its not just the bad loans that are worrying investors; its the good loans that will sooner or later turn sour if Italys economy continues to stagnate something it has been doing to varying degrees since joining the euro 17 years ago.

Steve Eisman, the American money manager famed for shorting securitized subprime home mortgages prior to the US financial crisis, has voiced concerns about Italian banks Texas Ratio (TR), a common measure of a banks credit troubles. The TR is calculated by dividing the total value of a banks non-performing loans by its tangible book value plus reserves or as Eisman put it, all the bad stuff divided by the money you have to pay for all the bad stuff.

Banks tend to fail when the ratio reaches 100%. In Italy, the two largest banks, Unicredit and Intesa Sanpaolo, have TRs of over 90%, according to Eisman. Every other bank is over 100%. As long as they stay that way, they will continue to drag down the two bigger banks.

Unicredit is scrambling to raise as much money as possible before it has to turn to investors to fill the rest of the gaping holes on its balance sheets. The bank has already parted with its holdings in Turkey. It is also extracting a special dividend of 3 billion from its German subsidiary HVB, triggering fears among German supervisory authorities that HVB will be weakened by the outflow of funds.

We are not pleased, an insider told the German financial daily Handelsblatt.

As Unicredit weakens its subsidiaries to keep its core business in tact, its future remains shrouded in uncertainty. Its fate depends as much on how well it can persuade investors that its capable of restructuring its operations and pay them a dividend at some point in the future as it does on whether Italys government can forestall the collapse of the smaller banks and ease investor fears in time for Unicredits capital expansion, while somehow managing to keep elections at bay. Its the mother of all balancing acts, and the odds are growing slimmer by the day. By Don Quijones. Check out his new blog, Rigged Game.
In the European Commission, they have come up with a new way to protect citizens from threats, as defined by these apparatchiks.

5 Minute Chart on EUR/USD

http://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=EURUSD&tf=m5


COMMENTARY FROM BENJAMINIS: Things are getting worse by the minute in Europe whether Italy or Greece or anywhere both politically and financially. Good Evening !!! My Bedtime finally.

Good day

Hope everyone is doing well.

Here is the 1 hour charts.

Here is 15 min charts.

Good Morning - Thank you KeepCalmfx for your charts. They are very helpful and necessary as we have our X Ray for the start of the day.

Then we turn to Money Flow and Risk Management.

On that note more thoughts on trading and winning in Forex.

 

1. Post 490
2. Cleanup
3. Quote
4. Jan 31, 4:53am (2 hr 11 min ago) | Edited Jan 31, 5:07am

1. http://cdn.assets.forexfactory.net/n...ar484831_2.gif hak444
2. | Joined Aug 2016 | Status: knowing is not enough,we must apply | 17 Posts

What i say is that there are 3 stages through which i think almost all traders go through

1st. Just getting into this business...thinking its so easy to make lots of money. This way i can be a millionaire just within few weeks or even days.
And this belief gets even more stronger after having first few profitable trades without a loss.

2nd. Beginners luck runs out, now its time to face the reality of the market. And this is when most traders get their mind all messed up. If i don't know anything about the market and i can get this many winning trades, imagine if i learn something about the market i will be able to make lot more money than before and will never have losing trades. So now he is going to learn all the different kinds of systems, indicators, all the analysis that is available to him ....and the list of tools goes on.
To me this is why traders use so many indicators (trying to filter all the bad trades) and jump from system to system because they think there is something that they need to learn and apply so that they can avoid all losing trades, which in fact is not possible. You will have losing trades, what u can do is just limit the damage.

3rd. Most traders will never reach to this stage, they either quit or are stuck in the 2nd.
This is the stage when trader realize that he cant win all the time and his belief about trading has to change so that he can stay positive as long as he is trading and any negativity will drastically affect his equity. So now he is more focused on doing simple things, like following a simple system that gives him an edge, which he may have used in the first stage but left it because of wrong beliefs. More focus on risk management/money management. Taking full responsibility of his actions, what ever the outcome is.
And above all he is totally aware that trading is not about getting rich quick, its a long road with obstacles that he has to strive and struggle to get through.
More focus on the process of trading than on money, money is just a by-product.
And all this should be done consistently without a break. Surely if he can do this for at least 2-3 years he will see positive changes not just in the process of trading (how easy it becomes just the way he thought in the first stage) but also the end result he gets.

Peace...
I can accept failure but i can't accept not trying. (Michael Jordan)

Morning Thoughts - Daily

The perfect start for our new corporate website. Enjoy...

 

1. xecutivefx
2. | Joined Oct 2015 | Status: GOD ABOVE EVERYTHING. | 167 Posts

The 9 Stages of a Forex Traders Development
https://static.wixstatic.com/media/8...02f41e476.webp
Stage 1 – Intrigued by Forex

1.1 We accumulate information, we learn - buying books, buy the Best Forex Course we can find, maybe going to seminars and researching what really works in trading.
1.2 We begin to trade with our ‘new’ found knowledge.
1.3 We make profits only to give it back very quickly and then realize we may need more knowledge or information.


Stage 2 – Back to school

2.1 We accumulate more information.
2.2 We switch the currency pair or strategy we are currently following and trading.
2.3 We go back into the market and trade with our better Forex trading system. This time it will work.
2.4 We lose even more money and begin to lose of confidence that we can even be traders. The reality of losing money sets in.


Stage 3 - Discouragement

3.1 We start to listen to other traders and what works for them.
3.2 We go back into the market and continue to lose more money.
3.3 We completely switch our style and method.


Stage 4 - Optimism

4.1 We search for more information and resources online.
4.2 We go back into the market and start to see a little progress.
4.3 We get ‘over-confident’ in a single trade and put on a big position believing it is a sure thing and the market quickly takes our money.
4.4 We start to understand that trading successfully is going to take more time and more knowledge than we ever anticipated.


MOST PEOPLE WILL GIVE UP AT THIS POINT, AS THEY REALIZE WORK IS INVOLVED.


Stage 5 – Limbo “it’s easy to get stuck here for some time”

5.1 We get serious and start concentrating on learning a ‘real’ methodology & Forex strategies that work.
5.2 We trade our methodology with some success, but realize that something is missing.
5.3 We begin to understand the need for having rules to apply our methodology.
5.4 We take a sabbatical from trading to develop and research our trading rules.
5.5 We start trading again, this time with rules and find some success, but over all we still hesitate when we execute.
5.6 We add, subtract and modify rules as we see a need to be more proficient with our rules.
5.7 We feel we are very close to crossing that threshold of successful trading.


Stage 6 - Belief

6.1 We start to take responsibility for our trading results as we understand that our success is in us, not the methodology.
6.2 We continue to trade and become more proficient with our methodology and our rules.
6.3 As we trade we still have a tendency to violate our rules and our results are still erratic.
6.4 We know we are close.


Stage 7 - Reward

7.1 We go back and research our rules.
7.2 We build the confidence in our rules and go back into the market and trade.
7.3 Our trading results are getting better, but we are still hesitating in executing our rules.
7.4 We now see the importance of following our rules as we see the results of our trades when we don’t follow the rules.


Stage 8 - Realization

8.1 We begin to see that our lack of success is within us (a lack of discipline in following the rules because of some kind of fear) and we begin to work on knowing ourselves better.
8.2 We continue to trade and the market teaches us more and more about ourselves.
8.3 We master our methodology and our trading rules.
8.4 We begin to consistently make money.
8.5 We get a little over-confident and the market humbles us.
8.6 We continue to learn our lessons.


Stage 9 - Victory

9.1 We learn smaller positions lower the volume of our emotions so we trade smaller and this surprisingly makes us better with our discipline.
9.2 We learn that risk management is one of the biggest keys to winning as a trader.
9.3 We stop thinking and allow our rules to trade for us (trading becomes boring, but successful) and our trading account continues to grow as we increase our position size only as our account grows.
9.4 We are making more money than we ever dreamed possible.


Original Article Author: Stephen Burns “40 steps in the Traders Journey “, July 2012


http://www.spotonforex.com/single-po...rs-Development
POWER IS THE ULTIMATE CURRENCY.

https://www.forexcrunch.com/eurusd-b...trump-trouble/

Snippet:
EUR/USD opened the week with a weekend gap to the upside, but this episode is already behind us. The reason for the rise was Trump’s Muslim ban. The executive order from the new president about banning entries from 7 Muslim countries caused chaos in US airports and resulted in a global crisis.
However, as time passed by, the US issues moved away and in came some bearish data from Europe. Germany reported a drop of 0.6% in prices in January, lowered than 0.5% expected. Also on the year over year figures, the data points were a miss: 1.7% according to the HICP and 1.9% in the national CPI.
Germans were worried about the jump in inflation last month, albeit the blame was pointed at German holiday packages at the time. Those suspicions proved correct. Draghi had already dismissed the temporary rise in inflation as energy-related and today he is vindicated, at least according to the German data. Tomorrow we will get the full euro-zone data.
Risk off
In addition, the Trump troubles have another effect. The bad news triggers a “risk-off” sentiment. This aids the safe-haven Japanese yen first and foremost, but the greenback is also a beneficiary. This can also help explain the slide in EUR/USD.
The low so far has been 1.0620, under support at 1.0650. Yet following this move, the pair bounced back. At the moment this seems to be a false break. Further below, we find 1.0520 and 1.0460. On the topside, 1.0710 and 1.0780 await the pair.
More: EUR/USD: To Rally Towards 1.10 Short-Term; Sell Into This Rally Long-Term – SEB
US data has been OK, with the Core PCE price index hitting 1.7% exactly as expected. Personal income is up 0.3% and spending is up 0.5%. Pending home sales came out at 1.6%, better than projected.
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Quoting BenjaminIs

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{quote} Great Work, KeepCalmfx Perhaps later on today or whenever you have the time to review and reflect on your experiences since December 27, 2016 which was 34 days ago or 5 weeks tomorrow. You can share with everyone that comes to our thread that I started on December 3, 2016 which is 58 days ago and our joint experience together after 86 pages of text was produced by many here who have shared and posted here. I have accomplished my GOAL which was to confirm that what I have learned in the last 14 years of training and education, that I taught...

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Here is my feedback on my experiences since December 27.

I will not lie, at first I was overwhelm with all of this new information, articles to read to absorb and to understand. It was very difficult for me as I only know very little about the economics. I also did not truly understand the basic jargon.

I decided to take it day for day, as I knew that you cannot be a consistent successful trader only focusing on the technical aspect of trading. I made a promise to myself to be open minded and follow this different way of thinking/trading and to do my best to learn as much as I can for the next 3 months. I had nothing to lose and a huge desire to become a consistent profitable trader.

So I started to only read the morning thoughts and evening wrap ups on the thread, then while I was doing that I started to study the basics of economic, what is a bond and interest rates, what is the monetary policy and fiscal policy, what is inflation and how these things relate to each other and also effect each other. It was hard just to get my head around it, but with time it got easier. Then I got my head around the money flow and perception vs reality or the fact, the bigger picture.

I started to understand more each week. By reading the posts from page 1, the words/jargon became more familiar and I could understand the articles/posts better. I still go back to my notes each day when I read new articles/post. Also at times when Benjamin explained how the money flow works it got easier to understand, I picked up something different each time.

I think that people struggle to get their head around this way of trading, because they are set in their own ways, routines and beliefs. In the beginning it is hard work, you have to study these article so you can understand what is being said. You have to know how everything fits in together and you have to be open minded and think in a new way. You must accept this new way of thinking and this all gets easier with your results you get when trading this way.

Last week I made a few losses, I knew the main direction of the trend, but I was not patient enough to wait for it to be risk off before entering on some of the trades and they hit my SL as a result. Other trades just didnt work out, luckily we use a very good money management plan. And not all of our trades will be winners. Every day you have to work on your patience and have the discipline to follow the trading plan. I also like that we only focus on a few instruments, that way you get to learn that particular instrument. I mainly focused on US30 and JPY our 1st 2 trade plans.

Fundamentals drive the market, Technical time the market and perception change the direction of the markets even if the fundamentals have not changed.

In my opinion the way Benjamin teach is great in getting the bigger picture and then trading according to that. I also think our trading plan works, you must just follow it with discipline and have patients with the results. The best way to learn and practice patience and discipline is when trading and what better way to do that as on a Demo account, were you also learn not to be greedy or to trade with fear and ego.

I still have a lot to learn about the markets, being more discipline and having more patience, but it is a process and all you can do is to give it your best each day.

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/a...n-ban-iykwkot4

Trump Fires Acting Attorney General, Deepening U.S. Immigration Conflict

President Donald Trump fired acting Attorney General Sally Yates as conflict escalated over his executive order banning entry to the U.S. by citizens of seven predominantly Muslim nations.
Yates, an Obama administration holdover, was ousted Monday just hours after she told Justice Department staff not to defend the ban in court because she didnt think it was legal. The White House said in a statement she was removed for refusing to enforce a legal order designed to protect the citizens of the United States.
Trump quickly named another Obama appointee to the post, Dana Boente, the U.S. attorney for the Eastern District of Virginia, who instructed the departments lawyers to defend the immigration ban against legal challenges. Boente would stay until Trumps choice for Attorney General, Jeff Sessions, is confirmed by the Senate -- though Democrats are vowing a vicious fight to block the nomination.

The ouster of Yates intensified the drama and confusion that has been building since Trump issued the ban on Friday. It caps three days in which incoming international travelers were temporarily detained, protests sprung up around airports and many congressional Republicans criticized the White House over the order. Former President Barack Obama broke with tradition by entering a dispute with his successor by publicly backing the demonstrations.

Sessions Questions
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said Sessions, a Republican senator from Alabama, should be required to address questions about his independence from the White House before being voted on, as Democratic concerns over his nomination intensified in the aftermath of Yatess firing.
The attorney general should be loyal and pledge fidelity to the law, not the White House, Schumer said in a statement. The fact that this administration doesnt understand that is chilling.

Trump chose to continue his feud with Democrats Tuesday morning on Twitter, needling Schumer for the second day about appearing to fight back tears at a news conference in which he pledged to fight the new policy.
Nancy Pelosi and Fake Tears Chuck Schumer held a rally at the steps of The Supreme Court and mic did not work (a mess)-just like Dem party! Trump wrote. When will the Democrats give us our Attorney General and rest of Cabinet! They should be ashamed of themselves! No wonder D.C. doesnt work!
The ouster of a sitting attorney general -- albeit an Obama administration holdover who would have left the job upon Sessionss confirmation -- inevitably echoes a dark moment in American history: the 1973 Saturday Night Massacre, when President Richard Nixon dismissed a special prosecutor probing the Watergate scandal, prompting the resignations of the Justice Departments top two officials.
For as long as I am the acting Attorney General, the Department of Justice will not present arguments in defense of the executive order, unless and until I become convinced that it is appropriate to do so, Yates said in her statement, released hours before she was fired.
Politicized System

Stephen Miller, a White House senior adviser who helped write the Trump administration order, said on MSNBC Monday evening that Yatess statement was a further demonstration of how politicized our legal system has become. He said the president has the absolute right under immigration law to exclude any class of visitors from entering the country.
The president has that authority, Miller said. Its been delegated by Congress.

Trumps order temporarily barred entry for people from Syria, Iraq, Iran, Sudan, Somalia, Yemen and Libya, tripping up people who were already legal residents of the U.S. or visa holders, and suspended refugee immigration programs.
Legal challenges to the executive order have been mounted across the country already, with civil liberties groups saying they will work to have the entire action overturned by the courts. The Justice Department would be tasked with defending the order in court, a mission that Boente pledged to carry out as he rescinded Yates policy statement late Monday night.
White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer defended the ban at a press briefing Monday, saying no one should be surprised since the idea was a key theme of Trumps presidential campaign.

But the immigration action provoked unease stretching from foreign capitals to corporate suites, as people who hoped Trump might moderate some of his more far-reaching campaign promises are finding hes carrying them out just as he said he would.
State Department
Controversy also erupted at the State Department last week, where several veteran career officials stepped down as Trump moves to put his stamp on U.S. foreign policy. Other foreign service officers then began circulating a draft of a so-called dissent memo criticizing Trumps immigration executive order after it was issued on Friday.

Boente was sworn in about 9 p.m., shortly before the firing was announced, said White House spokesman Michael Short.
I am honored to serve President Trump in this role until Senator Sessions is confirmed," Boente said in a statement released by the White House. "I will defend and enforce the laws of our country to ensure that our people and our nation are protected."

Update on charts

I currently have 3 positions on 2 x JPY short and 1 x US30 Short.

Today just might be the day with help from KeepCalmfx

I am on my Notebook HP Pavilion connected to the Internet.

I hope to have both of the $50,000 US Dollars FXCM UK Demo accounts all in cash today. One of the Accounts I opened on December 4, 2016 and my main one here was opened on December 20, 2016.

Please give me the instructions one more time the steps that I take to do my SCREENSHOT so I can share my results here today other than through Copy and Paste.

Thank You


Benjaminis

Well one of my Forex Demo accounts is now all in cash with no open positions. I started with trading capital of $50,000 US Dollars on December 4, 2016 , one day after I started my Thread. My balance is now $65, 273.51 US Dollars in 58 days of trading in real time and with real results.

PLUS 30% !!!


Benjaminis

After Noon today when Europe goes home I expect unless there is INTERVENTION that the Dow 30 will be down over 250 points. Gold is Up because EUR/USD is up short term and US Dollar Index is down and now there can be NO DOUBT that Money Flow Trading works as we can all see where USD/JPY has gone.

We live in interesting times.


Benjaminis