Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...or-first-time/

Snippet:

Posted Jan 25, 2017 by Martin Armstrong
https://armstrongmedia.s3.amazonaws....uro-Crisis.jpg
For the first time, the head of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, has conceded the possibility that the EU may fall apart. Draghi came out and said that any member leaving the Eurozone would need to settle its claims or debts with the blocs payments system before severing ties. This statement reveals the heated discussion at Davos and the rift that is beginning to spread. This statement, released on Friday, was made in a letter to two Italian lawmakers in the European Parliament.


Sentiment in Italy is turning very anti-euro and this view is beginning to emerge in other Eurozone states. While they are blaming Britain, the real issue is the insane management of austerity and negative interest rates. This has created a massive depression in Europe and the unending Quantitative Easing has destroyed the European bond market. Whenever the ECB has to give up, interest rates will soar, for private buyers will not be willing to risk it all when the EU is clearly doomed.

Based on data to end-November, Draghi is saying that Italy would have to pay 358.6 billion euro to leave an exit tax. What Draghi fails to comprehend is that such demands will not keep the Eurozone together, and are more likely to cause it to disintegrate and just default on the ECB. Up until now, the very threat of defaults on cross-border debts has tended to keep the Eurozone together throughout the financial crisis. But pushing this too far will lead to default.

Southern Europe, which are the weaker economies including Italy, Spain, and Greece, have accumulated huge liabilities to keep the euro afloat while Germany stands out as the biggest creditor with net claims of 754.1 billion euros. This alone may set off the massive capital flight to the dollar. We are looking at the complete collapse of the Quantitative Easing carried out by the ECB since 2008 without any success. This will cause Trump problems with trade and currency, which he is not likely to understand.

Chart of EUR/USD with our Indicators.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...9&d=1485776360


Benjaminis

1. Post 414
2. Cleanup
3. Quote
4. Jan 30, 5:54am (1 hr 14 min ago)

1. Albertfxx
2. | New Member | Status: Junior Member | 4 Posts

firstly, discipline is important. Second, you have to have patience; if you have a good trade on, you have to be able to stay with it. Third, you need the courage to go into the market, and courage comes from adequate capitalization. Fourth, you must have a willingness to lose; that is also related to adequate capitalization. Fifth, you need a strong desire to win.

The Big Event is February 1, 2017 at 2 PM Eastern Standard Time.

Here is why !!!

Who Wins The Impending Trump-Yellen Brawl?



Whether the Fed believes that the economy is getting better and thus rates must begin to rise, or if rates are rising from an absence of buyers of U.S. Treasuries, it seems the Federal Reserve is determined to raise rates and potentially very aggressively. While President Trump criticized the Fed for keeping rates excessively low for an excessively long time during the campaign, his campaign to bring jobs back to America will not work with high rates generating a strong dollar. It seems inevitable that a war between the President and the Fed will break out in the near future.


Benjaminis

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ops+to+zero%29

Snippet:
How Long Can China's Debt Continue To Grow Before A Systemic Crisis Strikes?
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
by Tyler Durden
Jan 30, 2017 2:54 AM

Nearly three years ago, Morgan Stanley may have jumped the shark (a little) when its strategists Cyril Moulle-Berteaux and Sergei Parmenov declared that China's Minsky Moment has arrived. While that may have been partially true, the fact that China managed to incur an additional $12 trillion in total debt in the interim period, suggests that Beijing at least managed to postpone the inevitable.

And since in the 3 years since little has changed, questions about how much longer the Chinese debt-fueled growth "farce" can continue have once again emerged, in their latest incarnation courtesy of UBS, whose economist Tao Wang asks "How long can debt continue to grow before a Minsky moment or systemic debt crisis?"
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...hina%200_0.jpg
Here is the proposed answer:
China's debt is set to rise further in the coming years, likely exceeding 300% of GDP within 2 years. As the government continues to rely on credit-fuelled investment growth to offset downward pressures within the domestic economy and from a subdued global environment, unless there is major debt restructuring, China's debt/GDP ratio is set to rise further. We don't think that there is a "magic" level at which a debt crisis will take place. Many countries ran into debt crises at levels of debt significantly lower than China's current level, often because debt was financed by foreign resources due to low domestic savings, and/or because of duration mismatch (Figure 11).

Conversely, there are countries (e.g. Japan, Figure 2) where debt levels have risen ever higher without triggering any obvious financial sector distress.

Four factors make a typical systemic debt crisis unlikely for China. Typical debt crises are often liquidity crises of the financial system. In China,

1) over 95% of debt is domestic debt financed mainly via banks;
2) there is a very high domestic savings & under-developed capital markets, so saving largely exists as deposits or quasi-deposits in the banking system to finance debt (Figure 12);
3) capital controls still exist to keep liquidity at home; and
4) a high degree of government control over the financial sector and largest borrowers (SOEs) means that debt restructuring can take place gradually with government coordination rather than in a disorderly manner forced by the market. A central bank that always stands ready also helps to shore up depositor confidence in the banking system, helping to reduce the risk of liquidity events. This is why we still think that China's credit cycle may be a more drawn out process than one that is disrupted by a typical liquidity-related debt crisis.

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...hina%201_0.jpg
However, while a conventional debt crisis may be avoidable, UBS admits that ever-rising debt is problematic even if problems do not manifest themselves in a crisis.

The fact that debt is rising much faster than output year after year and an increasing share of debt is allocated in nonproductive or excess capacity sectors means misallocation of resources. Such systematic misallocation will depress long term productivity and economic growth, and wasted resources mean more potential bad debt will be created. While the aforementioned unique factors can allow China's credit cycle to last much longer than in other economies and with less volatility, this lack of a market-clearing mechanism could depress corporate profitability and investment, leading to lower or stagnant economic growth over a prolonged period of time. Eventually, the cost of accumulating so much bad debt will have to be borne by the financial sector and savers, asset prices will have to correct, and the ultimate cost of adjustment may be substantially larger.

How will this debt cycle play out and what to watch?
In the likely scenario that China's debt cycle is a drawn out process, the government would have to balance the need to stabilize growth and defuse debt problems by slowing credit expansion gradually, taking actions to gradually restructure the stock of debt (including by writing off bad debts, divesting some state assets and closing down "zombie" companies), and reform to encourage growth in less debt-dependent sectors. In any large credit event, banks and related financial institutions would likely be required by the government to bring some of the culprit debt on to their balance sheets, to gradually restructure its underlying assets to help the economy avoid a serious liquidity/credit crunch. If confidence in shadow bank channels drops, so long as the government retains control over the capital account, liquidity would most likely flow back to the banking system

Risk of a more disruptive break in the credit cycle has risen in recent years. The credit cycle could be more easily disrupted if 1) banks run out of "free" liquidity and have to rely on wholesale funding to finance balance sheet expansion, which provides less reliable funding. Banks may be forced to slow credit expansion sharply in the event of a market confidence collapse or asset price plunge; and 2) Large capital outflows persist for a prolonged period, with the resultant domestic liquidity tightening increasing banks' exposure to international market conditions. Indeed China is experiencing rising capital outflows as a result of the government's earlier push for capital account opening and the more recent weakening of market confidence (Figure 13).

The rapid shadow credit expansion is a risk. Shadow credit is less regulated and adds multiple layers of intermediation that increases risks and financing costs. More importantly, when multiple layers of shadow credit underpins the economy's overall funding structure, it becomes much harder for the government to quickly identify where funding problems may be or as they appear, compromising their ability to promptly oversee and manage any liquidity situation to prevent it from warping into a bigger systemic issue. As shadow credit becomes increasingly important, the government's ability to use banks to bailout the shadow banking sector will also be diminished.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...hina%202_0.jpg
So while on net UBS is not yet sounding the alarm on the imminent bursting of the world's biggest debt bubble, here are the four warning signs investors should watch for when it comes to China:

1. Liquidity (LDR) in the broad banking system after adjusting for shadow credit;
2. change in profit margins and/or return on assets in the corporate sector;
3. size of shadow credit relative to traditional banking; and
4. net capital outflows – persistent large outflows will erode China's domestic liquidity buffer.

This is a very valuable post from Albertfxx. Thank you

Good Day Everyone

Today we start with Risk Off and we watch where the money is flowing starting in 14 minutes or so. EUROPE is gone by Noon today and at 5 PM so is North America although as we all know in Forex we open around 3 PM in Wellington New Zealand each Sunday and we close each Friday in North America at 5 PM.

Tonight the BOJ (Bank of Japan) makes decisions and announces it that will effect USD/JPY so please take note of it. I will close my 3 open USD/JPY positions by 5 PM tonight Eastern Standard Time.

At the moment I have open Short 5 US 30 positions of 100 units. $100,000 US contracts.

Follow the Money Flow along with your charts for entry and exit and never be afraid to take a good profit. Anything over $250 US Dollars.

Use Risk Management and have DISCIPLINE to follow the rules. Trade with a peaceful mind without FEAR or GREED and you will do well. What we do here works as anyone reading the rules and using our method can see with your own eyes.

Have a great Forex trading day and please share your thoughts and questions here.

Thank You.


Benjaminis

I closed 3 positions with good profits of well over $750 US Dollars and now I will be patient and let my Limit Out's work. The KEY on the Dow 30 is to go below 20,000

We will see by Noon today and watch Short Covering between 11:30 AM and Noon as Europe finishes for the day.


Benjaminis

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sho...teid=rss&rss=1

Short-term Treasury yields tick lower as Trump enacts travel ban

Treasury yields edged lower Monday as a controversial executive order restricting U.S. immigration from predominantly Muslim countries provoked market unrest.
The executive order, signed by President Donald Trump late Friday, temporarily bans citizens from seven countries from traveling to the U.S., permanently bans Syrian refugees from entering the country while also temporarily suspending the U.S.s refugee program.
It has provoked widespread protests, as well as fears that Trump is prioritizing several of his more extreme campaign promises over his reputedly pro-growth fiscal policies like infrastructure spending and tax cuts. Also, some legal experts have argued that the executive order violates the first amendment by prioritizing Christian refugees.

While the news sapped demand for risky assets like global stocks, the rise in safety plays like Treasurys, German bunds TMBMKDE-10Y, -1.88% gold GCJ7, +0.36% and the Japanese yen USDJPY, -0.72% were unexpectedly muted, said David Schnautz, fixed income strategist at Commerzbank.
The yield on the two-year TMUBMUSD02Y, -0.65% Treasury was down marginally at 1.220%, while the yield on the 10-year TMUBMUSD10Y, +0.00% rose 0.8 basis point to 2.493%. The yield on the 30-year TMUBMUSD30Y, +0.65% Treasury bond rose three basis points to 3.089%
Specifically, the great unknown at this stage is whether or not [Trump] burns through his political capital so quickly with his more controversial campaign promises that by the time the pro-business agenda is addressed Washington is in deadlock, said Ian Lyngen and Aaron Kohli, a team of fixed-income strategists at BMO Capital Markets.

Theres certainly much more going on than the bund price action or the Treasury price action gives away, Schnautz said.
Demand was strongest for short-term U.S. debt, as signs of rising consumer prices helped dampen demand for longer-term bonds like 30- and 10-year Treasurys.
The 12-month PCE inflation rate for 2016, released early Monday, showed consumer prices rose in December at their fastest annualized rate since September 2014. The so-called personal-consumption expenditure is the Feds preferred method of tracking inflation.
Meanwhile, European yields moved higher after official data showed inflation in Germany accelerated at its fastest pace since 2012. Typically, when bond investors expect consumer prices to rise more rapidly, they demand higher yields to offset the increases.

Investors are now looking ahead to Wednesdays Federal Reserve policy announcement. Many will scrutinize the language of the central banks statement for any clues as to whether it intends to follow through with raising interest rates three times in 2017.

Updated charts
I have 2 positions open. 1 x US30 and 1 x JPY

I took a few losses last week. Not a good feeling, but it is part of trading, cost of doing business.

I had a total of 8 positions today, all positions closed now with total profit of $2 116.

Great Work, KeepCalmfx

Perhaps later on today or whenever you have the time to review and reflect on your experiences since December 27, 2016 which was 34 days ago or 5 weeks tomorrow.

You can share with everyone that comes to our thread that I started on December 3, 2016 which is 58 days ago and our joint experience together after 86 pages of text was produced by many here who have shared and posted here.

I have accomplished my GOAL which was to confirm that what I have learned in the last 14 years of training and education, that I taught myself could be taught to others.

The numbers that KeepCalmfx achieved is beyond even my expectations and confirms that for the right Forex traders that have an open mind and are willing to look at Forex trading in a completely different way then there are no limits to success.

This has been a most rewarding experience for me as everyone wants to be able to have confirmation of their knowledge and maybe earn some respect which on Forex Factory is more difficult to achieve for the normal human nature reasons.

I thank everyone here who has been helpful to me for their cooperation.


Benjaminis

I see my friend online now , piphunting so I can now share my thoughts about what I read on most of the posts on the most active thread on Forex Factory , EUR/USD in the last few minutes.

I do not like it when anyone loses money trading Forex even if they are perfect strangers, however it makes it so very very clear why 95% of all RETAIL Forex Traders lose trading Forex.

You CANNOT JUST TRADE OFF of Charts and if somehow you can, great.

However it is just not the way to go and yet I am sure that even if many on the EUR/USD thread came here it would not change much for most of them.

The only reason that I continue on with these points of view is that it confirms my strongest view and WHY , I KNOW, that to do my job properly I need to see how someone trades their demo account.

Our BEST STUDENT, as the results show is KeepCalmfx and the way that the efforts were put in showed me that only with desire and work and discipline which is what I surely have, then most Forex traders should just move on to other things unless they want to learn the proper way to make money in the Forex business.

Otherwise they will most likely continue to lose money and keep dreaming that one day that they will find their HOLY GRAIL, which unfortunately does not exist and will never exist unless you believe in Peter Pan and Santa Claus.




Benjaminis

Hello wayfarer !!! How are you doing ? I miss you posting your charts and your observations and how you are doing in your trading. Nice to see you online.


Benjaminis

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...6&d=1485793627


http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...7&d=1485793639


Benjaminis

Hi, everybody! Was unwell a little, out of the market so far. I will return to work soon.

Get well soon and thanks for letting us know.


Benjaminis

Hi Wayfarer

Hope you are feeling better now.

I came across this clip and post. Very interesting and very fitting to what Benjamin teaches.

http://broadcast.ino.com/education/t...eboard_6/?blog

'Fundamentals Drive the Markets. Technical Time the Markets. AND !!!

Perceptions CHANGE the DIRECTION of the Markets EVEN IF the Fundamentals have NOT changed. This is where knowing the DIFFERENCE between SPIN and REAL FACTS gives YOU the EDGE and makes you along with control of your EMOTIONS, " FEAR, GREED and EGO" a WINNER !!!

Risk Management and Event Management are also needed along with a Trading Plan. The BEST position to be in is to wait all day if need be for that good opportunity. Do not TRADE just to trade. Have a Good Reason to enter the trade with advance knowledge of exit point whether a STOP to limit losses or a LIMIT OUT to take profits off the table into your pocket."

Hi Benjamin

I am busy with my reply, will post as soon as I am done, will probably be tomorrow.

All have a nice evening, I am off to bed.

Great Video KeepCalmfx

I use that website and they have great resources.

Here is what Adam says about his video.


Governments lie, corporations lie, and politicians bend the truth.

O.K., so what don't we know?

So what doesn't lie, and what tells the truth every time?

Well that's something you need to know and that's what I call the F.T.P. market approach.

I have just finished the sixth video in our complimentary "Traders Whiteboard" series. This new video shows how you can separate fact from fiction in the markets.


This new video lesson shows how even the smart people can be duped by the market, and how you can avoid making many of these same mistakes.


You are not going to find anything on this subject on the web, because I looked for it before I made this video. Once you have seen this six minute video lesson, you will be able to detect and avoid bad markets in the future.


The F.T.P. approach makes more sense and tells the truth more than anything else I have ever witnessed in my 30 plus years of trading.

There are no registration requirements to watch the video.

Enjoy,
Adam Hewison

Published: 2008-03-13