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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #2,921
  • Jan 30, 2017 8:29am Jan 30, 2017 8:29am
Quoting Lock
As said before the game here is all focused on Friday pit low at 25225 and the possible new gap below it. If we have the gap, the scenarios are those underlined in post 2913. If instead it will open above it, we could have a correction of the Friday poor low and then a correction of the 3 back to back poor highs. Or the opposite of it. Naturally the closer the open will be to Friday poor low, the higher the possibility to correct it first, before to eventually go...

Note price location at pit open...
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  • #2,922
  • Jan 30, 2017 8:39am Jan 30, 2017 8:39am
Note preUS C high at Friday preUS open 2535: carry this info forward.
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  • #2,923
  • Jan 30, 2017 8:39am Jan 30, 2017 8:39am
Quoting Lock
Note that 2500 zone is an old pit cluster of m30 lows (from 24.01 pit session) never corrected by following pit sessions. I'm not saying it has to correct it today but carry this info forward.
All the weak stops of the last 4 pit sessions are below 2500. Carry this information forward too: if it take them out, and then no continuation, next natural target are the 3 poor hhighs. If continuation below it it means that we also found there sellers. If never reached, carry this info forward anyway.
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  • #2,924
  • Jan 30, 2017 8:45am Jan 30, 2017 8:45am
Note A low at preUS open..
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  • #2,925
  • Jan 30, 2017 9:05am Jan 30, 2017 9:05am
Quoting Lock
Note A low at preUS open..
TAgged.
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  • #2,926
  • Jan 30, 2017 9:06am Jan 30, 2017 9:06am
Note also today GB low as a tag of previous 25.01 Tokyo low: it is weak. And consequently it is possible that during the correction of 2500 zone this level could be taken out too. It's only a possibility anyhow.
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  • #2,927
  • Jan 30, 2017 9:07am Jan 30, 2017 9:07am
Quoting Lock
{quote} TAgged.
Then taken out.
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  • #2,928
  • Jan 30, 2017 9:09am Jan 30, 2017 9:09am
Quoting Lock
{quote} All the weak stops of the last 4 pit sessions are below 2500. Carry this information forward too: if it take them out, and then no continuation, next natural target are the 3 poor hhighs. If continuation below it it means that we also found there sellers. If never reached, carry this info forward anyway.
Watch out now. We could find (stronger)buyers or (stronger) sellers below it.
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  • #2,929
  • Jan 30, 2017 9:15am Jan 30, 2017 9:15am
Quoting Lock
Note also today GB low as a tag of previous 25.01 Tokyo low: it is weak. And consequently it is possible that during the correction of 2500 zone this level could be taken out too. It's only a possibility anyhow.
For now it has been tagged.
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  • #2,930
  • Jan 30, 2017 9:15am Jan 30, 2017 9:15am
Quoting Lock
{quote} Then taken out.
Hello Lock

You are very fit ..... thanks for the analisys
Animum debes mutare non caelum
  • #2,931
  • Jan 30, 2017 9:21am Jan 30, 2017 9:21am
Quoting giorgio1448
{quote} Hello Lock You are very fit ..... thanks for the analisys
You're welcome. Best L.
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  • #2,932
  • Jan 30, 2017 9:30am Jan 30, 2017 9:30am
Quoting Lock
{quote} For now it has been tagged.
I don't know if it could be able to retrace from above it, without a test below it. I would have preferred a test because stronger hands do not buy at exact refs. It's suspect for now. At the same time it took out the main pit ref so: conflicting information here. A buy is licit but monitor for continuation back inside Friday range. If not...
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  • #2,933
  • Jan 30, 2017 9:47am Jan 30, 2017 9:47am
Quoting Lock
{quote} I don't know if it could be able to retrace from above it, without a test below it. I would have preferred a test because stronger hands do not buy at exact refs. It's suspect for now. At the same time it took out the main pit ref so: conflicting information here. A buy is licit but monitor for continuation back inside Friday range. If not...
And here we are at Friday pit low 25225: we need acceptation back above it for continuation and eventually for the take out of the 3 poor highs (25795, 2612 and 2638).

Note that A B periods highs are now a fourth poor high in a row..
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  • #2,934
  • Jan 30, 2017 10:50am Jan 30, 2017 10:50am
Quoting Lock
{quote} I don't know if it could be able to retrace from above it, without a test below it. I would have preferred a test because stronger hands do not buy at exact refs. It's suspect for now. At the same time it took out the main pit ref so: conflicting information here. A buy is licit but monitor for continuation back inside Friday range. If not...
And in fact it went down again and took it out. Now is crucial: we could have accptation below this level or rejection. If rejection we could eventually aim at the now 4 poor highs in a row. If acceptation this thing could continue downside to the lower major composite poc.
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  • #2,935
  • Jan 30, 2017 1:16pm Jan 30, 2017 1:16pm
So current situation is very uncertain: we got acceptation below GB low and value is lower from Friday pit value. At the same time we left above 4 pit poor highs in a row and this is extremely rare. Price is now balancing at a new major composite poc 2478, so the session could also end around here. But if so, next pit session should be interesting because the current situation could lead to 2 different scenarios, both of which could be of high impact: A retracement to take out the now 4 poor highs (2525, 25795, 2612 and 2638), going against current value developing or a substantial liquidation after a new gap downside in order to create a resistence capable to limit any correction upside at least temporarily.

About current session period I is an inside one and J is attepting a break above it. If failed back to the opposite side of I and eventually elongation downside..
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  • #2,936
  • Edited 1:22am Jan 31, 2017 1:11am | Edited 1:22am
17/01/31 TUESDAY 08:11+1GMT
EARLY MORNING REPORT

We are in a monthly balance (price is inside November monthly balance after the failed attempt dowside of current Genuary.) We are in a weekly balance (or maybe a weekly uptrend if current one will close above the last one). We are in short term daily trend downside (last 4 days are in one timeframing down mode). So overall the situation is very uncertain. Current cable situation is mirrored in the last days by the USDX environment that is also very uncertain.
The current short term downtrend is characterized by two main factors: first it happened without the participation of China (China bank holiday from last Friday to the next one). Second, it started from a very exact reference (2673, GB November 2016 breakeven).
Furthermore, specially during the last 4 pit sessions we experienced a very weak participation, underlined by the 4 poor highs in a row left above coming downside.
All these factors could lead us to think that this action downside is particularly weak and fragile. The conflicting information here is that we got value clearly building downside in the last 4 days and we got huge weaknesses and havily weak structure left downside in the last short term uptrend from 16.01.

Yesterday GB session made a final attempt downside with I and J periods (a spike): the base of which is at 25085. This is our main reference for upcoming GB session. Yesterday we also saw price build a new major composite poc at 2478: and this is our next most important ref.
Downside the top of the old GB gap upside is at 24183 and this could be our third ref for today Gb session (also because it is very close to the lower composite poc at 2417.)

In any case I think that the real question here is to watch and see what upcoming pit session is going to do: pit participants has not a good high* for this short term action plus they left upside 4 poor highs in a row (2525, 25795, 2612 and 2638) as written numerous times: only a substantial new gap downside could allow us to skip this extremely rare sequence of weaknesses. Or, and it is also possible, an exogenous event could drastically change the situation.

Finally note that today is the last day of the month.

*it is not good for intraday because it is a poor high: it might look different if you consider major timeframes because on the daily chart 25.01 pit session can be seen as an excess above both 24.01 and 26.01 pit sessions (a selling tail).
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  • #2,937
  • Jan 31, 2017 1:46am Jan 31, 2017 1:46am
Note that 24437 is a very important level too for both GB and pit sessions. As it is the top of the first weekly balance (week 09.10) after the break of the week 02.10. As it is very important also the 25122 weekly inside balance high. As written numerous times in the last reports.
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  • #2,938
  • Jan 31, 2017 2:29am Jan 31, 2017 2:29am
Quoting Lock
17/01/31 TUESDAY 08:11+1GMT EARLY MORNING REPORT ...Yesterday GB session made a final attempt downside with I and J periods (a spike): the base of which is at 25085. This is our main reference for upcoming GB session. ....
For any meaningfull continuation upside we need to have acceptation above this level. If not...
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  • #2,939
  • Jan 31, 2017 2:54am Jan 31, 2017 2:54am
B inside A
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  • #2,940
  • Jan 31, 2017 2:58am Jan 31, 2017 2:58am
Very weak environment with B low at yes GB low and B high at yes spike base. Both day timeframe references.
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