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  • #147,281
  • Jan 30, 2017 7:31am Jan 30, 2017 7:31am
...watch-out for yen ...shortcircuiting and losing the 114.xx handle via risk. (@ goosebone check the cheatsheet ) and we have BOJ in play. We are about to trigger a change in short term outlooks (via risk) and set a major wide volatility range (both sides clashing with forces in opposite directions) unlocking soft 112.3x before a rather sharp test 105.8x with a short stopover in between (107.9x)....

I personally think it will need a hand from the BOJ tonight as the other option will be a very sharp risk off sell off across the world in equities via risk alone [not convinced yet if NY will play ball with FED later this week].

Without an unexpected tweet from the US front we have late but finally set highs and lows of the M across the board. All eyes on the open today.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,282
  • Jan 30, 2017 7:34am Jan 30, 2017 7:34am
Guys. We all have opinions on this immigration thing. Many of them will not agree. So what? Hashing it out here is counterproductive. (I have fallen into that temptation to debate politics here a few times and looking back at my posts I wish I hadnt). Markets? Let's stay focused so it's a place with a purpose.
  • #147,283
  • Jan 30, 2017 7:49am Jan 30, 2017 7:49am
Quoting sisse
...watch-out for yen ...shortcircuiting and losing the 114.xx handle via risk. (@ goosebone check the cheatsheet ) and we have BOJ in play. We are about to trigger a change in short term outlooks (via risk) and set a major wide volatility range (both sides clashing with forces in opposite directions) unlocking soft 112.3x before a rather sharp test 105.8x with a short stopover in between (107.9x).... I personally think it will need a hand from the BOJ tonight as the other option will...
Am I right that the uj short-circuit via risk in simple terms represents money moving out of the equity markets creating demand for yen?
  • #147,284
  • Jan 30, 2017 7:53am Jan 30, 2017 7:53am
Quoting Devauxt
{quote} So your answer is "wait until a terrorist from one of those countries commits an act of atrocity and then ban them"
Does nyone ever look at the mess the West has made of the MIddle East and the Millions killed by what I am sure the people of the MIddle East class as the 'Western Terrorist' but its ok !!! kettle black pot black
  • #147,285
  • Jan 30, 2017 7:59am Jan 30, 2017 7:59am
I am following this thread since last year at could say that it provides a lot of good things. I totally agree with goosebone regarding recent posts about immigration/politics. Let's focus on areal thing and see what we can get from it.

@Sisse...can you give USDJPY outlook more deeply for a mid term?
  • #147,286
  • Jan 30, 2017 8:04am Jan 30, 2017 8:04am
Quoting sisse
Trump economic plan or impact on inflation go ahead lets go why don't you jump in the very nice and extensive conversation with Chester in the last few pages? ... -->
From a base of being well along the path to normalization before Trumps victory, expectations only grew with a massive rally in benchmark treasury yields right after. His loose fiscal policy and aggressive infrastructure plan are seen as key contributing factors that put already expected + inflation/rates and the dollar into overdrive.

We can try looking at things from a different angle too. There's an interesting sub-plot in the Trump/inflation discussion.

What is the impact of illegal immigration on the labor market?

It's been used at times to explain subdued price pressures since the recession. Many economists seem to agree that it suppresses wages, contributing to deflation, but where they really differ is on the scale of its effect. Maybe their differences of opinion on the magnitude of illegal immigration are a factor in how they reach their respective conclusions.

If the impact is great, and, Trump's crackdown on illegal immigration equally so, it would be further justification for rising levels of inflation and tighter monetary policy in response.
  • #147,287
  • Jan 30, 2017 8:12am Jan 30, 2017 8:12am
If usdjpy going south with boj via risk then what about EU?
Re-Incarnated
  • #147,288
  • Edited 8:47am Jan 30, 2017 8:20am | Edited 8:47am
Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote} From a base of being well along the path to normalization before Trumps victory, expectations only grew with a massive rally in benchmark treasury yields right after. His loose fiscal policy and aggressive infrastructure plan are seen as key contributing factors that put already expected + inflation/rates and the dollar into overdrive. We can try looking at things from a different angle too. There's an interesting sub-plot in the Trump/inflation discussion. What is the impact of illegal immigration on the labor market? It's been used at...
Has it suppressed wages contributing to deflation though? I would think that immigrants (or anyone) that filled low wage positions previously held by American workers that moved up the wage ladder just kept the bottom rungs of that ladder in place rather than change the structure of the wage scale as a whole. Taking out those bottom rungs (by eliminating workers that willing to accept those low wages) would change the structure. Hyper inflation at first, collapse second? I guess the idea that wages for the agriculture and construction and to a lesser degree hospitality jobs in question could have simply risen along with the tide and prices along with them as a normal course is hard for me to swallow but that could just be my limited perspective and recency bias.
  • #147,289
  • Jan 30, 2017 8:53am Jan 30, 2017 8:53am
Quoting goosebone
Guys. We all have opinions on this immigration thing. Many of them will not agree. So what? Hashing it out here is counterproductive. (I have fallen into that temptation to debate politics here a few times and looking back at my posts I wish I hadnt). Markets? Let's stay focused so it's a place with a purpose.
Exactly Goosebone but Sissy has a way of looking down his nose at people with his views which is fine for the many subservient followers but don't all raise your arms in horror when there is a response. Stating the new US administration or Brexiteers are racist, xenophobic etc as an unequivocal fact is just plain stupid. It is pure conjecture on his part and would be better presented that way.
Once You See, You Can't Unsee But You Will Get The Odd Poke In The Eye
  • #147,290
  • Edited 9:11am Jan 30, 2017 8:59am | Edited 9:11am
Quoting Stu Effex
{quote} Exactly Goosebone but Sissy has a way of looking down his nose at people with his views which is fine for the many subservient followers but don't all raise your arms in horror when there is a response. Stating the new US administration or Brexiteers are racist, xenophobic etc as an unequivocal fact is just plain stupid. It is pure conjecture on his part and would be better presented that way.
Right on. The comment you quoted was addressed to everyone. Regardless what side you fall on or what you see as conjecture or fact.

Then I posted a total noob question about uj and risk off. I know you hate the "hand holding" and all , but maybe you could answer it for me? In the interest of moving off the other subject?
  • #147,291
  • Jan 30, 2017 9:18am Jan 30, 2017 9:18am
[quote=Devauxt;9497893]{quote} So your answer is "wait until a terrorist from one of those countries commits an act of atrocity and then ban them" and simply ignore what Europe is experiencing with immigrants from those countries. In Europe this is nor fearmongering, it is reality. If the US drops its guard in the same way that Merkel has in Germany, you too could have some of these lovely people. I see nothing wrong in severe vetting[/quote

The answer is having a better congruent system ... I would respect the ban more if he outright banned all Muslim countries harboring terrorist groups... but if you want to be rationale and think like the enemy why would they send a terrorist from the countries anyway if we are obviously vetting for them... and the Europe example you gave is a bust because most of the terrorist attackers were citizens of France and Belgium and not even the countries you want strict vetting against. And to be frank we already have a strict counterterrosist system that has fairly worked ever since 9 11.... the only times our "guard" is down is when we are attacked from within like in Europe so how do you really combat that ? Because if you were trying to protect American citizens you really are putting them in more danger with this Muslim ban rhetoric and especially Americans overseas who are already experiencing backlash and can't get back home
  • #147,292
  • Jan 30, 2017 9:22am Jan 30, 2017 9:22am
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Right on. The comment you quoted was addressed to everyone. Regardless what side you fall on or what you see as conjecture or fact. Then I posted a total noob question about uj and risk off. I know you hate the "hand holding" and all, but maybe you could answer it for me? In the interest of moving off the other subject?
Goosebone I would be only too pleased to help but risk on is when I click to enter, risk off is when I click to close. I don't concern myself with other definitions or applications of that principle. Hand holding is reserved for my Mrs and G/kids. However, if you are interested in my approach to trading of course I will lend a hand, just message me as not appropriate to discuss here. Good Luck
Once You See, You Can't Unsee But You Will Get The Odd Poke In The Eye
  • #147,293
  • Jan 30, 2017 9:32am Jan 30, 2017 9:32am
Sisse or anyone else;

I never understood why there are gap open some weeks...especially like today no reason. I mean If anyone even you or me can ask to buy 1.0700 EU at begining of today who buy from 1.0720, and why. Except classic replies. deep market, different outlooks etc etc. Is not that one because of spakulation even if you now generellay gaps are closed in smaller timeframes. thanks for replies.
  • #147,295
  • Jan 30, 2017 9:44am Jan 30, 2017 9:44am
FX markets open (to some) 24/7. Gaps are mostly an illusion created by the fact that our charts cover a section of that time, not all of it. That's what I always thought anyway.

UJ broke through 114
  • #147,296
  • Jan 30, 2017 9:44am Jan 30, 2017 9:44am
Quoting Stu Effex
{quote} Exactly Goosebone but Sissy has a way of looking down his nose at people with his views which is fine for the many subservient followers but don't all raise your arms in horror when there is a response. Stating the new US administration or Brexiteers are racist, xenophobic etc as an unequivocal fact is just plain stupid. It is pure conjecture on his part and would be better presented that way.
stu ... if i agree whit sisse doesn't mean, to use your own words, i am a "subservient follower" and stating this is "plain stupid" ... maybe i'm on this idea BEFORE and INDEPENDENTLY from sisse's post, no?

Plus Sisse and many others of us repeatedly said not al brexiters are xenophobic and racist as you stated but that nearly all xenophobic an racists are brexiters ... there is a considerable difference between these two statements: Brexiters=xenophobic NO xenophobic=brexiters YES ... AND HOW COULD BE DIFFERENT? could ever a xenophobic want to stay in EU? it's just stating the obvious!

anyway agrre with Goose, back to trading
  • #147,297
  • Jan 30, 2017 9:51am Jan 30, 2017 9:51am
Very strong opening range ...and should cap it for today till the FED otherwise we are going for a major clean sweep across the board. Important updates coming from the European close too...

sisse

@goosebone and @roobii @change...why bother mate, it takes less than 1 min and reading 2 sentences to recognise an honest opinion from a different side from those with limited education and IQ alpha chimps, chest beating, dick swinging trolls ... don't feed them, with such a major moves in the making across the board....or better engage after hours in the more economic discussion with those who have make real arguments like @ClinicalEx and some others
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,298
  • Jan 30, 2017 9:57am Jan 30, 2017 9:57am
Quoting sisse
...watch-out for yen ...shortcircuiting and losing the 114.xx handle via risk. (@ goosebone check the cheatsheet ) and we have BOJ in play. We are about to trigger a change in short term outlooks (via risk) and set a major wide volatility range (both sides clashing with forces in opposite directions) unlocking soft 112.3x before a rather sharp test 105.8x with a short stopover in between (107.9x).... I personally think it will need a hand from the BOJ tonight as the other option will...
Thanks for the heads up
  • #147,299
  • Jan 30, 2017 10:08am Jan 30, 2017 10:08am
Does a sell off in equities can drop oil also? as TA it is loking quite ready.
  • #147,300
  • Jan 30, 2017 10:10am Jan 30, 2017 10:10am
Quoting sisse
Very strong opening range ...and should cap it for today till the FED otherwise we are going for a major clean sweep across the board. Important updates coming from the European close too... sisse @goosebone and @roobii @change...why bother mate, it takes less than 1 min and reading 2 sentences to recognise an honest opinion from a different side from those with limited education and IQ alpha chimps,...
I know. I hear you. You fuel that fire but I'm sure you know that.

Euro close looks risk off with Equities stumbling and uj under 114. US 10 Y yields not cracking 2.5. Wish I knew how to translate that to Dollar short term.
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