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  • #147,261
  • Jan 29, 2017 3:28pm Jan 29, 2017 3:28pm
Quoting chester123
btw. just on top of this discussion. I think its super important to watch FED next week because Its very clear that we may be setting for a war between TRUMP and FED (yellen) which would add a huge risk-off pressure via monetary uncertainty. So fat both sides are quiet but It can take one tweet in these crazy times. No matter what one thinks of FED - breaking the independency of the most important CB may be poison for the whole system.
Well I have a slightly different view in the short term.

I think Yellen is more than happy with Trump noise and announcements short term. FED was in desperate need of a fiscal push taking over and inflation to kick in to finally (and a bit lagging) end the normalisation process. As things stand right now I will even dare to say I wont be surprise FED overshoot and surprise with a hike rather soon.

The economy is ready, inflation expectations are there but not the actual numbers yet (which is very good from a monetary policy point of view), global (european particularly) risk jitters are still a bit ahead coming early Q2 and Trump populism and random policies will be still subdue market wise in greed mode with large corporations in honeymoon expecting all details on the tax cuts and infrastructure blow out...

Sure later, Yellen and any other technocrat won't last Trump tweet spouts especially when macro and monetary policy recommendations start diverging from his ideas. For now I think we are ready for a double whammy on the fiscal and monetary sides....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,262
  • Jan 29, 2017 3:37pm Jan 29, 2017 3:37pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Well I have a slightly different view in the short term. I think Yellen is more than happy with Trump noise and announcements short term. FED was in desperate need of a fiscal push taking over and inflation to kick in to finally (and a bit lagging) end the normalisation process. As things stand right now I will even dare to say I wont be surprise FED overshoot and surprise with a hike rather soon. The economy is ready, inflation expectations are there but not the actual numbers yet (which is very good from a monetary policy point of view),...
well, that would suggest one hike in march (second meeting from now - RMT very soon, after next meeting possible with hand from NFP), after wait if the EU passes and hike right after it again if all goes fine --- all that in order to get in the confrontation with trump around Q3/Q4.
  • #147,263
  • Jan 29, 2017 3:48pm Jan 29, 2017 3:48pm
... ok pre market open...small gaps up and down in Euro and Yen but nothing out of the range .... China is on new years week so expecting rather light and volatile sessions for the rest of the week ....got what I wanted to see ...

GL all this week as we have a lot of action on the table ....

Quoting chester123
{quote} well, that would suggest one hike in march (second meeting from now - RMT very soon, after next meeting possible with hand from NFP), after wait if the EU passes and hike right after it again if all goes fine --- all that in order to get in the confrontation with trump around Q3/Q4.
Why not this week ... .


----

Nothing like a good fun from the Onion to lighten the mood after a very embarrassing and sad week from the US ...From the onion and old one but more relevant than ever ... Just Sit Back...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,264
  • Jan 29, 2017 3:55pm Jan 29, 2017 3:55pm
Quoting sisse
... ok pre market open...small gaps up and down in Euro and Yen but nothing out of the range .... China is on new years week so expecting rather light and volatile sessions for the rest of the week ....got what I wanted to see ... GL all this week as we have a lot of action on the table .... {quote} Why not this week ... . ---- Nothing like a good fun from the Onion to lighten the mood after a very embarrassing and sad week from the US ...From the onion and old one but more relevant that ever ... Just...


well, since my short carear in trading Im used to completely shy FED postponing the cycle and individual hikes all the time so hard for me to imagine they would go for something like a hike next week. But who knows. Looking into history FED hasnt been always like that and times are changing. Just looking at equities: one more hike seems well overdue to stop the madness. Kind of believe the Schiller comment suggesting another "irrational exuberance" formig right now.
  • #147,265
  • Jan 29, 2017 4:01pm Jan 29, 2017 4:01pm
In 1985 it was Science fiction. Now we are here. Trump is Biff. Welcome to the future.

Inserted Video
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #147,266
  • Edited 6:54pm Jan 29, 2017 5:35pm | Edited 6:54pm
sisse,

Fun article you posted. Unfortunately, it may not be if there isn't a collectively amount of everyone (Legislative-House, Senate, Judicial- Supreme Court and Executive-Cabinet and President and FED) working together on fiscal, political, foreign polices (this was my biggest concern if Trump was elected) and ect....in the US, media suggests this ban on green cards, and FOREIGNERS crossing borders (Iran, Iraq, Syria and ect) has created chaos and not welcomed; but, some Big Heads are stating this is only affecting 1% of the population and is not as big of a deal as everyone is making it out to be. Furthermore, they are stating it only affects the new foreigners applying for permission and not the ones already approved. However, my issue with it all is why it had to be implemented right now without thoroughly having DD involved and its impact worldwide. There are big issues with our borders as is with other countries but this is extreme order at the moment. I believe this was done too soon and without proper planning; and, perhaps, an entire department should have been designed for all of this i.e. like Homeland Security. My concern is how this will affect the US globally in TRAVEL. After all, the US is basically immigration at its finest. We are all immigrants much like President Trump's family.

Quoting sisse
...and we are rolling .... Irrelevant levels for the close, however TA the highlight is Euro 1.066x is not longer with us leaving the map with only major levels in play next week. FED/BOE/NFP triple explosive combo next week with talking heads in tweet mode across the world .... sisse
Now, as ignorant as this may sound.....Why is .066X (MY FLIP-posted in past posts) irrelevant now? I still see this level on my chart (WEEKLY) as a a major area. I remember you gave me an AH HA moment when you told wrote in this thread that just because a level was protected and guarded and shows that visually on a chart that it doesn't mean that anymore. I didn't about that. Is this .066X area not being protected anymore or an area of interest for what reason?

(MID) has my TOP: .084X-.086X w/ ext to .097X (Doubt this as I believe .074X holds now w FED)
FLIP: .066X (Short Term) .059X (MID)
BOTTOM: .02XX

MOMENTUM LEG: Close under .049X
  • #147,267
  • Jan 29, 2017 6:42pm Jan 29, 2017 6:42pm
That's a short-circuit I would like to see as probability of a hike this week is currently below 5% according to fed funds futures prices.
It doesn't seem too scatty to think Euro bulls will then loose the 1.05xx handle, triggering the momentum leg.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #147,268
  • Jan 30, 2017 2:42am Jan 30, 2017 2:42am
Quoting sisse
{quote} They are the consequence not the cause of the problem. It's not their fault until you support consciously and openly with your vote an openly racist, xenophobe populist etc etC, etc etc knowing the outcome (Trump or Farrange and etc etc have been openly consequent with their comments). Trump openly campaigned, humiliating and declaring what he was going to do against Mexicans, Muslims, Women and (pretty much all non white rural Americans) etc, etc ..this time there is no excuse that politicians lie during the campaign neither of globalisation...
How hypocritical and pompous you are. Yes let's leave the conversation but only once your say is over comparing events to Nazi Germany. Very democratic of you not wanting any opposing opinions to your continual leftist rhetoric, racism blah blah.
Once You See, You Can't Unsee But You Will Get The Odd Poke In The Eye
  • #147,269
  • Jan 30, 2017 3:00am Jan 30, 2017 3:00am
Damn you Sisse and all your rhetoric !
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #147,270
  • Jan 30, 2017 3:24am Jan 30, 2017 3:24am
let alone explanation of your reasoning
  • #147,271
  • Jan 30, 2017 3:45am Jan 30, 2017 3:45am
Any God damn I feel such an illiterate
And may your God go with you
  • #147,272
  • Jan 30, 2017 3:50am Jan 30, 2017 3:50am
Quoting sisse
--> Sadly the political news over the weekend sending shockwaves across the world. It will start trickling down markets as early as this week but especially after FED for strictly timing reasons. Trump crossing all lines and triggering the most racist, dangerous and xenophobic policy in the develop world we haven't seen since Nazi Germany 1935/37.... --> Sad, embarrass and even sorry to see such a great country betraying its core values and entering in the worst chapter in their history. I still think the majority of real Americans from left, right...
The USA finally got some sense. The countries in question are the top countries on the Terrorism Index https://www.screencast.com/t/3MoH8LkwsrFO . Intelligence agencies around the world estimate between 15 and 25% of the members of the dominant religion in this region have terrorist or radical beliefs. Why shouldn't the USA adopt a much more stringent vetting policy? It could be argued that the existing policy was willingly importing terrorists and people whose views were incompatible the normal life in the USA. It is a real shame that other world leaders are so afraid to talk about "the Elephant in the room"
  • #147,273
  • Jan 30, 2017 4:20am Jan 30, 2017 4:20am
Dollar stalling on resistance at 102.36/1.050 support on Fiber until further information from the ECB/FED. Benchmark treasury yields halting at 2.5 with
the hard work already done and pointing to more bullish action after claiming 2.2 & 2.3 on last years close.

Oil is in the midst of a reversal off its post-recession support.

It's hard to bet against the Dollar as proposed deregulation and expansionary fiscal policy complement the continued and- so far- very smooth transmission of tightening monetary policy. The latter will mitigate the former though.



Quoting sisse
--> Sadly the political news over the weekend sending shockwaves across the world. It will start trickling down markets as early as this week but especially after FED for strictly timing reasons. Trump crossing all lines and triggering the most racist, dangerous and xenophobic policy in the develop world we haven't seen since Nazi Germany 1935/37.... --> Sad, embarrass and even sorry to see such a great country betraying its core values and entering in the worst chapter in their history. I still think the majority of real Americans from left, right...
I feel churlish trying to admonish you since you've had such a huge impact on my trading but I do truly believe that you have a political blind-spot regarding Trump/Brexit. There's so much hyperbole in your posts regarding politics today and, often, a very demeaning characterization of those who don't share your political views. It's the opposite of what I've come to expect from you- an emotional rather than impartial way of digesting facts.
  • #147,274
  • Jan 30, 2017 4:25am Jan 30, 2017 4:25am
Trump give them the bad Immigration Policy ( bad news ) sucker punch

Hopefully the tax cuts and new construction policies ( good news ) within the next couple of days .
We may have short term happy days equietes
  • #147,275
  • Jan 30, 2017 4:50am Jan 30, 2017 4:50am
Quoting Devauxt
{quote} The USA finally got some sense. The countries in question are the top countries on the Terrorism Index https://www.screencast.com/t/3MoH8LkwsrFO . Intelligence agencies around the world estimate between 15 and 25% of the members of the dominant religion in this region have terrorist or radical beliefs. Why shouldn't the USA adopt a much more stringent vetting policy? It could be argued that the existing policy was willingly importing terrorists and people whose views were incompatible the normal life in the USA. It is a real shame...
sounds like you're falling for the same fear mongering tactic.. surface level its easy to point the finger at these top terrorist index countries but it seems odd to me that historically the 7 countries on the ban haven't had terrorist attacks on the US and the ones that we certainly can link terrorists from we kept off the list. and also most of the recent major american "terrorist' attacks have been from american citizen converts. so where are the imported terrorist that you speak of?
  • #147,276
  • Jan 30, 2017 6:13am Jan 30, 2017 6:13am
1.002 dollar tested, lets see if taken out. Could unlock some micro and short term upside on it. Lets see NY for better view.
  • #147,277
  • Jan 30, 2017 6:22am Jan 30, 2017 6:22am
Ufff .... a bit of a detour from markets when we have such a massive trading week ahead.

Well I think the reaction in the thread exemplifies what is going to be the general playing field from now onward. Pure political BS taking over economic factors.... markets are still keeping it steady on free fiscal money expectations but is clear that America is set for a very painful and emotional ride that will reflected in markets sooner rather than later.

For now European session triggering a soft risk off thanks to Trump but the real deal to see if we play ball only comes from NY.

sisse


Quoting PayTheLimit
Damn you Sisse and all your rhetoric !
je je je ... I knew I was for a big angry mob especially from the haters.

You know there is time to be passive and there is time to take a side loud and clear. Some of the haters are so aggressive on and offline and vocal that most of the normal people don't take a clear stand against hate, racist and xenophobia .... not in my case, not from what is happening in front of our eyes.

Ignoring and turning a blind eye on what is going on it only gives them more leverage and will lead to even worst times ahead.....they don't represent real American principles and thats a fact.

Quoting ClinicalEx
I feel churlish trying to admonish you since you've had such a huge impact on my trading but I do truly believe that you have a political blind-spot regarding Trump/Brexit. There's so much hyperbole in your posts regarding politics today and, often, a very demeaning characterization of those who don't share your political views. It's the opposite of what I've come to expect from you- an emotional rather than impartial way of digesting facts.
--> I hear your point. You are just making one wrong assumption in what you say. I am very and will continue to be very vocal, bias and inflexible with haters, racist and xenophobes not with left, right, green or whatever is your political side or opinion.

--> There are economic principles that can be discussed, there are different policy and political options that need to be respected, there are arguments to be listen and understand even if they go against a particular view. However, there are universal principle and values that ARE NOT open for interpretation.

--> I can't care less if you voted for A, B or C or if you think policy A, B or C is good or bad. However if you start discriminating and destroying basic principles that extend far beyond the REAL American values. If you want to jump in and discuss about Trump economic plan or impact on inflation go ahead lets go why don't you jump in the very nice and extensive conversation with Chester in the last few pages? ...

--> If you think racial and xenophobes slurps are something for debate ....well we are going nowhere as there is no margin for discussion ...there is no such think as 'half-racist' 'half rapist' or half-thieve, half-killer or 'half-terrorist' for that matter.

--> Let me wrap it up as you sound like a reasonable person. I am not making a characterization of those who don't share my political views. I am only taking a strong inflexible position for those haters, racists, xenophobes that are flirting to lead to a disaster in the US and the world.

--> If you read my previous post I am 100% convince that only the minority of Trump voters represent the scumbag of the world (racists, KKK and etc), but a good majority are good people that voted for Trump for completely different reasons [real ones] but they are been sucked in a populist spiral and maybe like in trading can't see the forest for the trees yet (thanks mass and social media for that)...

History is not in your side ...time will tell but If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably.... is a duck. ... the US is set for a rather painful ride if things continue like this for a only bit longer....

--> I know that I am hitting nerves for some here so let try to keep it related to the market during trading times at least. What do you think is Trump short term outlook in the US economy and especially the impact in Dollar?

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,278
  • Jan 30, 2017 6:42am Jan 30, 2017 6:42am
Q. What do you think is Trump short term outlook in the US economy and especially the impact in Dollar?

Ans. : to me as per my thinking and understanding about economy ... we are going to see good amount of volatility (dollar positive) in the near/short term which will just be a kick start for a new end of the US economy .... fiscal policy (trump) just gave yellen a chance to hike in the upcoming meeting which is already fully normalized in terms of timing from the last hike (and i hope everyone remember that trump was against low interest rates) ..... as sisse said he even tough me wont be surprised if fed hikes 25bps tomorrow ....

its just a view ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #147,279
  • Jan 30, 2017 7:06am Jan 30, 2017 7:06am
What do you think is Trump short term outlook in the US economy and especially the impact in Dollar?

Short term I feel trump and the Fed are together bullish for usd. Trade related inflation expectations should push on the Fed. He's going full speed. Next stop the government spending should get more real. In the short term jobs will be created by that and inflation expectations should push on the Fed again.
Mid and longer term is fuzzier and events dependent. If it was a Republican or a Democrat in the white house that course would be easier to chart from here. Expect the unexpected is hardly a reassuring environment for prediction. I have a feeling I'll be using nothing larger than a short term map for the next few years.
  • #147,280
  • Jan 30, 2017 7:25am Jan 30, 2017 7:25am
Quoting roobii
{quote} sounds like you're falling for the same fear mongering tactic.. surface level its easy to point the finger at these top terrorist index countries but it seems odd to me that historically the 7 countries on the ban haven't had terrorist attacks on the US and the ones that we certainly can link terrorists from we kept off the list. and also most of the recent major american "terrorist' attacks have been from american citizen converts. so where are the imported terrorist that you speak of?
So your answer is "wait until a terrorist from one of those countries commits an act of atrocity and then ban them" and simply ignore what Europe is experiencing with immigrants from those countries. In Europe this is nor fearmongering, it is reality. If the US drops its guard in the same way that Merkel has in Germany, you too could have some of these lovely people. I see nothing wrong in severe vetting
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