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  • #147,241
  • Jan 27, 2017 8:11am Jan 27, 2017 8:11am
For those following the Euro we have the first TA update in the short term this year. 1.066x will become irrelevant for good on todays close as we set the fresh map for the FED that looks pretty much crystal clear for next week and beyond ...

Until then tracking 1.074x as only level of interest as long as we are in the current range ....

sisse

Quoting janpec1000
{quote} More like when, hint state department clearout. Eyes on RUB for that one, but the question is will the EU fold too, there is large divergence in EU politics from current US president, there could be some nagging coming for that.
The EU and Europe in general (except the UK) can be the biggest winners in all this if they play the 'right cards right' or better said if they don't shoot themselves in the foot joining the populist nationalistic bandwagon ... lots of politics in play in the upcoming months.

International relations reshuffling as they always do before/during major changes in the world....there will be winners and heavy losers for those who bet in the wrong side ...Russia, the US and the UK already made their bets ...we'll see how things keeps unfolding ....still have China and the rest of Europe to take sides among the heavy weights....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,242
  • Jan 27, 2017 8:31am Jan 27, 2017 8:31am
Quoting sisse
For those following the Euro we have the first TA update in the short term this year. 1.066x will become irrelevant for good on todays close as we set the fresh map for the FED that looks pretty much crystal clear for next week and beyond ... Until then tracking 1.074x as only level of interest as long as we are in the current range .... sisse {quote} The EU and Europe in general (except the UK) can be the biggest winners in all this if they play the 'right cards right' or better said if they don't shoot themselves in the foot joining the populist...
Good point, heavy losers on wrong side and those on right side long term winners...as for China she already took its bet along the Russia long time ago, nothing to see there. The rest that is left on table is only about to be finalized by Trump. Most likely EU cogs will determine direction of EU in some matters no matter of what sides certain countries pick (if they do pick nationalists), thats my take on it.
  • #147,243
  • Jan 27, 2017 8:41am Jan 27, 2017 8:41am
The picture is pretty much crystal clear as sisse said just waiting for the drama to end .... Politicians all around the globe are the same ... Not understanding any situation and just go as their mind says ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #147,244
  • Jan 27, 2017 9:54am Jan 27, 2017 9:54am
Old article. But still relevant perhaps

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...liday-is-a-dud
  • #147,245
  • Jan 27, 2017 3:57pm Jan 27, 2017 3:57pm
...and we are rolling .... Euro bulls held for 6th consecutive weeks but starting to cough at the current highs in desperate need from a 'tweet' before the FED. Irrelevant levels for the close, however TA the highlight is Euro 1.066x is not longer with us leaving the map with only major levels in play next week.

FED/BOE/NFP triple explosive combo next week with talking heads in tweet mode across the world ....sit tight and get ready for some action as the major mover and shakers for the rest of the Q are in play next few days.

On the rest of the board, nothing new all markets 'behaving' so same [some new]levels, same trades, same all for next week....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,246
  • Jan 29, 2017 4:01am Jan 29, 2017 4:01am
possible GBPUSD map for next weeks:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 50 KB
  • #147,247
  • Jan 29, 2017 10:11am Jan 29, 2017 10:11am
--> Sadly the political news over the weekend sending shockwaves across the world. It will start trickling down markets as early as this week but especially after FED for strictly timing reasons. Trump crossing all lines and triggering the most racist, dangerous and xenophobic policy in the develop world we haven't seen since Nazi Germany 1935/37....

--> Sad, embarrass and even sorry to see such a great country betraying its core values and entering in the worst chapter in their history. I still think the majority of real Americans from left, right or centre will make sense of what going on and put the US back on the right track ...

--> Despite the shameful and dangerous message from the US, the line is being crossed way faster than most anticipated. This is going to have a very loooong tale as we are set to enter in permanent risk off mode. Markets will hold for free money and Trump splash of cash for big corporation as much as greed allows but what we are witnessing is way beyond markets noise ratio and wont hold for much long if the US continue in the same line.

--> More importantly for trading. All alerts triggered. Watch-out Dollar and Treasuries triggering a MAJOR game changer risk off blow 'any' minute. Taking defensive positions and precautions and dusting all risk asset classes for short term trading as early as tomorrow open.

The US is officially playing with fire ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,248
  • Edited 11:30am Jan 29, 2017 11:12am | Edited 11:30am
Quoting sisse
--> Sadly the political news over the weekend sending shockwaves across the world. It will start trickling down markets as early as this week but especially after FED for strictly timing reasons. Trump crossing all lines and triggering the most racist, dangerous and xenophobic policy in the develop world we haven't seen since Nazi Germany 1935/37.... --> Sad, embarrass and even sorry to see such a great country betraying its core values and entering in the worst chapter in their history. I still think the majority of real Americans from left, right...
Sisse, (or anyone else) do we look at yields to determine the degree of the risk off move? In other words, strong risk off moves money from equities to bonds driving yields down, much stronger risk off moves money from most all markets to cash and commodities driving yields (and $) up?
  • #147,249
  • Jan 29, 2017 11:57am Jan 29, 2017 11:57am
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Sisse, (or anyone else) do we look at yields to determine the degree of the risk off move? In other words, strong risk off moves money from equities to bonds driving yields down, much stronger risk off moves money from most all markets to cash and commodities driving yields (and $) up?
We have mentioned a few times in the thread. As a very broad general cheatsheet:

-> Soft risk -> Gold
-> Medium risk -> Gold -> Yen/(CHF less now that is a quasi fix CB rate) -> Dollar ->
-> High risk -> Dollar -> Treasuries (German Bonds)
-> Extreme panic -> Treasuries as ultimate haven.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,250
  • Jan 29, 2017 12:11pm Jan 29, 2017 12:11pm
Sisse: Thank you for your update. I think one of major problem with what Trump says compared to opposition is, Whatever Trump says make sense for average american. The argument of those who oppose doesn't make sense easily other than the opposition are people who are really smart and successful unlike Trump.. So I tend to believe them even though I do not understand completely why they oppose...I am listing Trump's view vs opposition. I also list why Trump's view make sense. Can you please fill in details of opposition (as i believe you are one of smart successful opposition) as to why you think it is a wrong idea??

Border Tax:

  1. Trump'view: Trade deficit of over $500 billion with China. The natural solution to this is Chinese currency increase in value making them less competitive hence reduction in the deficit but it is not happening because of the Chinese artificially lower the value of currency. So it make sense to look for a tough solution like Tariff.
  2. Opposition view: ??


Immigration: I completely agree with opposition because it is easy to see why they oppose....

Environment:

  1. Trump'view: The regulation makes the products made in US more expensive due to the cost of confirming to regulations. The major issue here is these products need to compete with the products from countries that do not have high EPA standards hence reducing the regulation to make level playing field.
  2. Opposition view: ??


Quoting sisse
--> Sadly the political news over the weekend sending shockwaves across the world. It will start trickling down markets as early as this week but especially after FED for strictly timing reasons. Trump crossing all lines and triggering the most racist, dangerous and xenophobic policy in the develop world we haven't seen since Nazi Germany 1935/37.... --> Sad, embarrass and even sorry to see such a great country betraying its core values and entering in the worst chapter in their history. I still think the majority of real Americans from left, right...
  • #147,251
  • Jan 29, 2017 12:24pm Jan 29, 2017 12:24pm
Quoting sisse
Exactly @Fadhl @change @Fisher755 ...and @Pharm0r Bonds are the exact definition of HAVEN . Even more Treasuries. --> Investors will ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS prefer to invest in a zero risk asset over a riskier one. --> That raise the second point. The higher the expectations of YIELDS to raise the more pressure you will get in Equities. Now you can clearly...
Sorry. Should have learned by now it's search first, ask questions later. Thanks. And here's a relevant one if anyone is thinking about the same thing.
  • #147,252
  • Jan 29, 2017 12:53pm Jan 29, 2017 12:53pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} We have mentioned a few times in the thread. As a very broad general cheatsheet: -> Soft risk -> Gold -> Medium risk -> Gold -> Yen/(CHF less now that is a quasi fix CB rate) -> Dollar -> -> High risk -> Dollar -> Treasuries (German Bonds) -> Extreme panic -> Treasuries as ultimate haven. sisse
sisse, can you comment on EUR carry trade? The logic of risk-off as you described is clear. However, dollar on E/U may be different via carry trade on EUR as it has been intact almost always we had an outer-EU zone risk. One you said the carry trade does not happen if we have an inside-EU risk-off. But in this case its outside = the carry trade shall be intact?
  • #147,253
  • Jan 29, 2017 12:56pm Jan 29, 2017 12:56pm
Quoting Xxavier
...... The regulation makes the products made in US more expensive due to the cost of confirming to regulations. The major issue here is these products need to compete with the products from countries that do not have high EPA standards hence reducing the regulation to make level playing field. Opposition view: ?? {quote}
--> I think you are missing the point in all this. What is happening is not about opposition say this or that. Is not even about policy issue A vs policy B.What we are witnessing is not the normal typical debate between Republican ABC vs Democrats XYZ. We are witnessing a xenophobe, racist populist billionaire with purely private and selfish interest threatening all the values that have make America great and flirting to destroy US and global trade, security and economy.

--> The mass and {social} media has lobotomised a good segment [mostly and sadly rural and low educated groups] of the population who are not even smelling what is in play (same apply in the UK). Populist and nationalist always do that. You keep the 'masses' in check believing and cheerleading for false patriotic values and thinking that this is about policy and the opposition.

--> Sadly, this is about the future of the US...I mentioned many times history is not in the side [and by a large margin] with populist, nationalistic, greedy and dangerous 'leaders'. He doesn't give a damn about the environment, the mexicans or any of this. This is just political circus to keep the masses and media in check ...the real deal is happening in the background ...

--> There is time you can avoid politics altogether and live a simple life or discuss policy A vs policy B for ideological reasons. However there are very few times that you MUST take a stand and a SIDE otherwise you will be responsible for the consequences to you, your family and your country. Republican or Democrats policy positions are irrelevant in what is going on right now.

Ask the Europeans (it applies everywhere) what happen when they turned a blind eye on what was going on in front of them but wasn't really affect them directly [change mexicans, muslim, christians or jews, etc ...is the same) ....until it was already too late....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,254
  • Jan 29, 2017 1:16pm Jan 29, 2017 1:16pm
Thank you again for the response. To be absolutely clear, I am not a Trump supporter. The reason I do not support Trump is, all the smart people that i follow and listen to are against him + It is clear to me that he is a Liar + racist.

Here is summary of what I understood from your post below. Correct me if i am wrong.

1) Trump has hidden/private agenda, like may be expanding his business or whatever.. (I can clearly see this point)
2) All these ban Muslims, trade war etc are political circus to make his private agenda works
3) By the time he leave office he will accomplish what he wanted in the background and all the noise/actions he is making to cover the private agenda will create a mess for the US citizens and may be for the world

Now follow up question: Let's say he really mean to implement some of his policy items (along with his private agenda) like trade deficit reduction with China and Mexico. Do you believe this is a good policy move? Do you agree with him on how he is executing it?


Quoting sisse
{quote} --> I think you are missing the point in all this. What is happening is not about opposition say this or that. Is not even about policy issue A vs policy B.What we are witnessing is not the normal typical debate between Republican ABC vs Democrats XYZ. We are witnessing a xenophobe, racist populist billionaire e for the consequences to you, your family and your country. Republican or Democrats policy positions are irrelevant in what is going on right now. Ask the Europeans (it applies everywhere) what happen when they turned a blind eye...
  • #147,255
  • Jan 29, 2017 1:16pm Jan 29, 2017 1:16pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} sisse, can you comment on EUR carry trade? The logic of risk-off as you described is clear. However, dollar on E/U may be different via carry trade on EUR ....
I must admit it's a very tricky one now.

I still think that the carry trade in Euro will hold on soft and moderate risk but not on risk triggered from Europe. However, things have become very very complicate now with Trump killing the independence of Dollar.

--> We have Brexit in play and also Dutch / French /German elections coming. That without Trump was the non brainer deadline for the end of the risk-off carry trade correlation and to start changing especially given that we would be entering in RMT from ECB and end of QE.

--> Now if we clear the European election and with the EZ economy turning, and with UK and US moving to the dark side on free markets, the Euro could become a full haven in its own right mid term and beyond especially with US warmongering and blocking non American business and flows and with London potentially isolating from Europe and the world Economy after Brexit.

As you can see we are in too early to make a final call on this one because Dollar (via Trump) triggered a game changer for this year. On the one hand Euro is still in the middle of EU collapse crisis with Brexit and key elections in play and on the other hand becoming day by day a very attractive safe place to park and invest while US and UK play 'RISK' (the boardgame I mean).

We'll keep a close eye for now stay the same correlation unit further developments.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,256
  • Jan 29, 2017 1:22pm Jan 29, 2017 1:22pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} --> I think you are missing the point in all this. What is happening is not about opposition say this or that. Is not even about policy issue A vs policy B.What we are witnessing is not the normal typical debate between Republican ABC vs Democrats XYZ. We are witnessing a xenophobe, racist populist billionaire with purely private and selfish interest threatening all the values that have make America great and flirting to destroy US and global trade, security and economy. --> The mass and {social} media has lobotomised a good segment [mostly...
Agree with said, pattern fitting X into Y is one of the worst thing that human can do. Generalizing whole muslim population as possible terrorists, or mexicans as extractors is trully the worst example of that. Traders do that all the time on price field but at least they only hurt themselves and their capital, whole another cattle when guy in White house does it.
The last point however is what is the key point which i think you got it too generalized. Its not the problem of turning blind eye, becouse that isnt general problem. Rationalization of situation from all perspectives surely yes cures the blind eye problem, but the main problem is that powderkeg of progressive globalization that is expanding too fast always causes this populist/nat/whatever politicans to come in front, and simply masses are taking priority view becouse they do not rationalize situation completly, until its too late already. Globalization and its realitve children flows are usually good and non destructive when they come at certain peace, when pushed too hard, the retraces always come in such shape as we see it now, and the whole thing becomes destructive. So there is as much to blame one side as it is the other side (masses). But masses and populist politicans usually think that what they are doing is trully in best interest of them and their country, again its irrational or perhaps to say less-rational view on the whole situation that then leads to ruins. In the end you get Venezuelan type of structure, where a guy on top of board really wants best for his people, thinks he can construct economy better than "free market" can, it works for while, until the history sways the pattern and exposes the Achilles heel. But to get back to point, by no means is all fault of masses.
  • #147,257
  • Jan 29, 2017 1:24pm Jan 29, 2017 1:24pm
Quoting Xxavier
Thank you again for the response. To be absolutely clear, I am not a Trump supporter. The reason I do not support Trump is, all the smart people that i follow and listen to are against him + It is clear to me that he is a Liar + racist. Here is summary of what I understood from your post below. Correct me if i am wrong. 1) Trump has hidden/private agenda, like may be expanding his business or whatever.. (I can clearly see this point) 2) All these ban Muslims, trade war etc are political circus to make his private agenda works 3) By the time he leave...
I dissagree with that, one thing that populist politicans often do not have is hidden agenda. Its generally pretty bland and open ended. You dont get to use Twitter on instant thoughts while leading hidden agenda, unless you have seriously good game.
  • #147,258
  • Edited 2:16pm Jan 29, 2017 1:51pm | Edited 2:16pm
Quoting janpec1000
... is all fault of masses.
They are the consequence not the cause of the problem. It's not their fault until you support consciously and openly with your vote an openly racist, xenophobe populist etc etC, etc etc knowing the outcome (Trump or Farrange and etc etc have been openly consequent with their comments).

Trump openly campaigned, humiliating and declaring what he was going to do against Mexicans, Muslims, Women and (pretty much all non white rural Americans) etc, etc ..this time there is no excuse that politicians lie during the campaign neither of globalisation this or that if you voted for him. There is no excuses ...neither justification on external causes....they will have to face the consequences of their vote and actions. For good and / or for bad.

Globalization A, B or C is a lame excuse to justify extreme positions especially when your country (the US) became the largest and richest country in the world becasue of it .

If you are in the areas that haven benefit from globalisation is fair enough you need to raise your voice and ask for policy change and solutions....destroying the core structure of your society and economy, dismissing everybody else who has cosmovision bigger than 2 blocks away from your little town, dismissing history, economic evidence, ignoring and insulting all sound technical & educated advice and everybody else that doesn't' look like you, and I can go forever, etc etc...its just show you not how bad is globalisation but how much good people has been completely brainwashed by a very very few who knows exactly what they are doing ....

Soon the Brexit Trumpeters bots will start making a detour in this conversation so lets leave the conversation open but related to markets and the economy instead ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,259
  • Jan 29, 2017 1:57pm Jan 29, 2017 1:57pm
Quoting sisse
More importantly for trading. All alerts triggered. Watch-out Dollar and Treasuries triggering a MAJOR game changer risk off blow 'any' minute..
Hello sisse and all!
Can you please tell if this will change the short term outlook of Dollar from strong buy?
Sometimes it's better to be wrong,to learn..
  • #147,260
  • Jan 29, 2017 2:32pm Jan 29, 2017 2:32pm
btw. just on top of this discussion. I think its super important to watch FED next week because Its very clear that we may be setting for a war between TRUMP and FED (yellen) which would add a huge risk-off pressure via monetary uncertainty. So fat both sides are quiet but It can take one tweet in these crazy times. No matter what one thinks of FED - breaking the independency of the most important CB may be poison for the whole system.
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