Price-Structure-Order flow

EUR/JPY - Short:

As you may recall I was stopped out with a small profit (100 pips). Price returned back into the weekly balance zone and gave another opportunity, which I found a bit late. I am short on the lower of these entries indicated here, but am anticipating another retest that may trigger one or more these positions. So we'll just have to keep an eye on this.

Update EUR/USD - Long:

This market has triggered all my entries just prior to the election. I have moved my stop up slightly to create a 50 pip risk. I am anticipating that this move may move briskly (assuming no news to the contrary) up to engage the higher balance zones on the weekly chart. As longer term sellers stop out, this may create a steep and rapid move higher...

Update GBP/USD - Long:

This market triggered only one of my entries after which it balanced and, like the EUR/USD, moved higher. I have moved the stop to create only 15 pip risk, and anticipate the next move on the stop will lock in a small profit. The limit on this trade is set near the last weekly high. It appears this market is creating a range now at the lowest lows in 15 years. This is a good sign for all the GBP bulls out there, as the market must first balance, long term before it reverses. However, I have no idea IF this range will hold or how long it will last...

WTI crude - short:

Still short on this market and expecting it to move lower once the longs stop out. As I mentioned earlier on this trade, this trade will NOT be quick or easy as it is moving counter trend to the fundamentals, AND technicals, but this top has been balancing now for 4 weeks and is showing signs of breaking down. Buyers don't seem to be able to push prices to higher highs...however they are coming in stronger around the 52 level. So, if price moves lower than 52, I suspect a great deal of stops to be triggered, and create a move lower into my limit....keep your fingers crossed.

Update on EUR/USD - Long:

Not a whole lot to comment on here...just moved my stop up to break even (on the aggregate position). Price has stalled a bit at yesterday's high, most likely some profit taking on short term longs.

Update on WTI - Short:

The position continues to struggle, as intraday traders are now trapped in a range...and I along with them. Stop is as tight as I can make it so nothing to see here...no real volume in the buying, but seller's aren't convinced yet. Soooo, patience!!

Put this market on your radar: AUD/USD - Short

Price has moved into my target area...where I look for reversal signs. Buyers have lost dominance and sellers are balancing the order flow. This is and important requirement for order flow reversal. I am now waiting for sellers to demonstrate dominance

update on GBP/USD - Long:

Buyers have push price higher during the London session and price is now consolidating near the high of the day. I have moved my stop up to lock approx. 150 pips.

Update on EUR/JPY - Short:

It appears that buyers are still active on the dips both intraday and intraweek. (day and swing traders). Sellers appear to be mostly intraday. I have cancelled all pending orders that have not already been triggered, and moved the stop down to reduce risk to approx. 56 pips. I am "hopeful" that price may still continue my direction as there still appear to be some intraday sellers active at the intraday highs, but I feel the probabilities on this trade being successful are dropping rapidly. This is what happens when I try to call a "top"...counter trend rarely works.

Update on WTI - Short:

This trade is NOT looking good. I have moved my stop down to just a little over break even to cover my costs. I seriously doubt it will survive the day.

Position entered - Short AUD/USD:

I have been triggered short on AUD/USD with another pending order a little higher up. You can see that these entries are aligned with the lower border of the larger weekly balance zones.

do you have a stop on that one? where is the place where your setups are no longer valid and considered failed?
edit: sorry , now i see the SL on the first chart. but still, my question remains

This is an excellent question and with two of my recent trades they provide an excellent example in the live market. First the principle. I consider a setup "failed" or cancel my orders when: A break of a balance zone pulls back and closes on the opposite side that I was anticipating trading. In other words, what many here call a "false break". It moves one way then quickly reverse and moves the other way, and then breaks the opposite side of the balance zone...IF one is always following the larger market flow, this rarely happens...you may get a spike on the opposite side (what I call the "flush") that is more like a stop hunt but it doesn't do that very often, IF I am following the trend correctly. The other way I consider a failure, is that I get a break and then NOTHING...price balances again. It may trigger an entry, or it may not. But it is more an extension of the balance zone and not a break...

This later condition can be seen in my two recent trades on WTI and EUR/JPY...note they are both COUNTER trend trades. This means that there may still be some participants willing to extend the move, or that no one is committed to selling quite yet, and thus the counter trend volume just isn't there, or is being absorbed by the willing buyers.

Take a look at my most recent posts on EUR/JPY and WTI...these are prime examples of set ups that later turn sour and should be take off with a small profit, or at least have the stop tightened to reduce exposure to loss.

First the bad news... WTI - short: Stopped out

Position was stopped out with just a little over break even. Oh well...you can't win them all.

Next the not so great news: EUR/USD - Long:

Price has caved on a liquidation move, blowing out the stops on most of the short term buys. But price is now in an area where I would anticipate more buying to resume...assuming bullish sentiment. My stop was moved to break even (on the aggregate) a couple of days ago, so I will not lose this trade but will show no profit either, if my stop is hit. I will be very interested to see if we get a buy signal in the next couple of days, probably not until Monday or Tuesday next week. If I am not yet stopped out I may add to my position at that point...we'll just have to see.

Better news: GBP/USD - Long:

Yesterday saw a near vertical move on this market allowing me to move my stop higher to lock 200+ pips. The pull back currently seen on the left hand edge has started to stall intraday. So perhaps this will give me another opportunity to move my stop in closer and/or move on to hit my target...fingers crossed.

Good news!! AUD/USD - Short:

Only one of my positions has triggered but now seems to be working at least for the moment. However price is bouncing along the top of a support area I have drawn in and if it get through this, there will be another challenge a little further down, near the 0.7350 area. Of note however...we are at a "do or die" point with this market...if we stop out here, it will create a new higher high...and if we do not, it may create a new higher low...either of which are indications of change toward a more bullish outlook.

Update on EUR/USD - Long:

This market has stalled now for the last 36 hrs and appears (intrday) to be attempting to lift off the bottom (this recent bottom) to eventually form a higher low. Should this prove successful, I will hold this position into the limit orders seen on the weekly chart. However, I have moved my stop up to just below this low that will lock a small profit of 35 pips on the aggregate. Not a tremendous profit, but not a loss either.

Update on GBP/USD - Long:

Price has moved into a target zone and appears to want to reverse. The intraday charts are starting to turn, but I'm pretty sure this turn (if it does happen, will not occur today. I have left my stop where it is for now, as it appears as tight as I can make it without choking off the trade. I will hold this position over the week end, and hope price does not gap down at the open next week. For now, there is a 200+ profit locked in with the current stop. Price came to within 30 pips of my take profit point then turned quickly...I may have overestimated this run and set the limit just out of reach.

hows it going. i am not dropping eurusd. but seems we will be forcing out some first...