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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #2,861
  • Jan 26, 2017 7:30pm Jan 26, 2017 7:30pm
Hello, and thank you for your tread. Is there a postnumber where I can see a bit about f.ex. E inside D inside C.
Are there images on the tread? Thank you. Oddbj.
All the best to all of you. But don't follow me. I am a learner.
  • #2,862
  • Jan 26, 2017 11:25pm Jan 26, 2017 11:25pm
Quoting Oddbjorg
Hello, and thank you for your tread. Is there a postnumber where I can see a bit about f.ex. E inside D inside C. Are there images on the tread? Thank you. Oddbj.
Hi ... with the permit of Lock that is a very kind sir go to the link in another thread http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...41#post9132341

Regards
g.
Animum debes mutare non caelum
  • #2,863
  • Jan 26, 2017 11:42pm Jan 26, 2017 11:42pm
Quoting giorgio1448
{quote} Hi ... with the permit of Lock that is a very kind sir go to the link in another thread http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...41#post9132341 Regards g.
Thank you.
All the best to all of you. But don't follow me. I am a learner.
  • #2,864
  • Jan 27, 2017 1:45am Jan 27, 2017 1:45am
17/01/27 FRIDAY 08:45+1GMT
EARLY MORNING REPORT

First thing first is that from yesterday till next Friday we will have China bank holiday. So all what you will see during overnight (current Asia session included) will not see the participation of China: carry this very important fact forward.

Having said that, note that yesterday pit session eventually closed near the composite poc at 2587, just above it. So part of our hypothesis was correct. Also, pit session left a poor low at 2563, but it also left a new poor high: so currently we have two poor highs in a row for pit session. At 2638 (Wednesday) and at 2612 (yesterday).
Now, we could read these market generated information in two different ways: short term participants (those who supported the last 8 days of one timeframing higher action) went too long, no more short term buyers, then market need a substantial liquidation in order to find downside new short term buyers and eventually complete the short term auction upside.
Or, those two back to back poor highs are simply the lack of day timeframe buyers in both sessions and what they did downside is already enough in order to come up again and complete the auction.
Just to complicate the analysis, note that yesterday pit session value was overlapping to low from previous one: this could underline a possible change. And also note that this is the first interruption of the one timeframing higher action on the daily base in the last 8 days. Meaning that yesterday took out the low of Wednesday.

About the remaining portion of our yesterday late afternoon post note that yesterday pit session was actually an inside session (its range is included inside the range of the previous pit session). So, for upcoming pit session, any open of it outside yesterday range 2563-2612 could be considered immediately as an attempted breakout from balance.

About upcoming GB session, note that yesterday high is not a good one at 2673 because it is a perfect tag of a very important GB reference: only weak hands sell at exact references. The difference in this case is that reference is a monthly one: so it is possible that short term traders used it too. Remember that short term generally hold a position for at least a couple of days to a max of 8/10 days generally.

Also note that the GB profile looks extremely elongated and left upside 6 anomalies underlining the emotions that leaded that action. Stronger money do not act in this way and generally their presence in a market is visible when you see a more smoothed profile than the one we had yesterday.

Finally GB session made a final test, spiking downside in the last two periods and the base of this spike is at 2592. Furthermore, current Tokyo action could eventually build a new GB gap downside for upcoming GB session because current price is below yesterday GB session low at 2570.

Remember that a spike is a form of excess as it is a gap: so if you will have an excess downside made yesterday plus a new excess downside made today, consider the possibility to continue lower as exponentially increased. If you will not see an immediate or at least a very quick correction of the new possible gap and of the yesterday spike: go in the direction of those two consecutive excess.

In conclusion our most important levels for today GB session will be 2673, 2592 and 2570.

Lower major composite poc is at 2479 while upper one is at 2587, as said.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,865
  • Jan 27, 2017 2:27am Jan 27, 2017 2:27am
Note that current GB action is occurring inside the C minus development form 25.01 GB session (2528-2566). Watch out if after the possible correction of it you will not see continuation below its lower limit. At the same time, watch out if you will not see continuation below overnight low (Tokyo poor low at 25305): any meaningfull continuation downside needs acceptation below it. If not...
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,866
  • Jan 27, 2017 2:45am Jan 27, 2017 2:45am
If we will have continuation below Tokyo low, our most important level before the composite poc at 2479 is 25122.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,867
  • Jan 27, 2017 3:01am Jan 27, 2017 3:01am
If something will go wrong downside remember also an other important reference made yesterday during GB session: it is the rally high at 26255. It was a test upside, also in order to adjust invetories too short after the first periods, made by period G.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,868
  • Jan 27, 2017 3:16am Jan 27, 2017 3:16am
Huge indecision and lack of participation. Note C period high at open and a new poor high tagging A high. In any case it is a very narrow range: it should unfold from it.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,869
  • Jan 27, 2017 3:21am Jan 27, 2017 3:21am
Quoting Lock
Note that current GB action is occurring inside the C minus development form 25.01 GB session (2528-2566). Watch out if after the possible correction of it you will not see continuation below its lower limit. At the same time, watch out if you will not see continuation below overnight low (Tokyo poor low at 25305): any meaningfull continuation downside needs acceptation below it. If not...
It was not even able to test it. Consequently here we are upwards. Btw B low is a very weak one jst for this reason. Day timeframe buyers there: carry this info forward.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,870
  • Jan 27, 2017 3:23am Jan 27, 2017 3:23am
Rotational environment for now: watch out again if it is not able to fill the new gap downside or if it will fill it and you will not see continuation inside yes GB range. For any meaningfull continuation upside you want to see acceleration inside yes GB range, not a stallmate.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,871
  • Jan 27, 2017 3:40am Jan 27, 2017 3:40am
Quoting Lock
Huge indecision and lack of participation. Note C period high at open and a new poor high tagging A high. In any case it is a very narrow range: it should unfold from it.
Note D low again at open.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,872
  • Jan 27, 2017 3:52am Jan 27, 2017 3:52am
D inside C for now.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,873
  • Edited 4:12am Jan 27, 2017 4:01am | Edited 4:12am
Quoting Lock
Rotational environment for now: watch out again if it is not able to fill the new gap downside or if it will fill it and you will not see continuation inside yes GB range. For any meaningfull continuation upside you want to see acceleration inside yes GB range, not a stallmate.
As you see..
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,874
  • Jan 27, 2017 4:05am Jan 27, 2017 4:05am
Quoting Lock
{quote} It was not even able to test it. Consequently here we are upwards. Btw B low is a very weak one jst for this reason. Day timeframe buyers there: carry this info forward.
Note here that if it will be able to take it out and, again, you will not see continuation, it could reverse again, this time just to remain in balance at current poc for a while. But, because current action is an attempted breakout from D inside period/balance, if it will fail downside the initial natural direction will be the opposite side of D period.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,875
  • Jan 27, 2017 4:42am Jan 27, 2017 4:42am
Tokyo poor low taken out. (and also the previous GB minus development).Now watch out: we need acceptation below it for continuation, if not..
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,876
  • Jan 27, 2017 5:04am Jan 27, 2017 5:04am
Quoting Lock
If we will have continuation below Tokyo low, our most important level before the composite poc at 2479 is 25122.
Here we are 2 pips above it. Note the F minus development belowB period low: for a double distribution trend day we have to preserve at least a part of it "clean". If not, moderate your expectations downside because in this case we will probably conclude the session in a rotational environment..
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,877
  • Jan 27, 2017 6:07am Jan 27, 2017 6:07am
Quoting Lock
{quote} Here we are 2 pips above it. Note the F minus development belowB period low: for a double distribution trend day we have to preserve at least a part of it "clean". If not, moderate your expectations downside because in this case we will probably conclude the session in a rotational environment..

So we are still in a rotational environment as expected after the filling of F min dev. Now: value is lower from yesterday GB value and if current poc will migrate lower from current half back we could eventually have a new spike. But I really don't know. Currently I'm focusing on upcoming preUS and pit sessions and specially I'm very interested upon the last gap upside that is currently above price location.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,878
  • Edited 6:30am Jan 27, 2017 6:18am | Edited 6:30am
Price is currently below yes poor low at 2612 and I'm thinking about the following possibilities.
If it will open around current location (or below current one), the old gap upside will be overlapped by a new gap downside and will become a double pass one, price will be automatically in an out of balance environment, a breakout downside from yesterday inside pit session. In this case we could have 3 options:

  1. continue lower preserving the new overlapping gap.
  2. continue lower after the filling of the new overlapping gap (at least partially).
  3. Retrace the overlapping gap and obtain acceptation back inside yesterday pit session range (above yes pit low at 2563), aiming at the opposite side of the balance, meaning the last 2 back to back poor highs at 2638 (Wednesday pit) and at 2612 (yesterday pit).

A second possibility could be if price will open inside yesterday pit range. In this second case we could have 3 options:

  1. Remaining in balance doing nothing but rotation.
  2. Test downside, taking out the yesterday poor low at 2563 and all or at least a portion of the old gap, coming back inside balance and continuing higher to the opposite side of the balance, meaning the last 2 back to back poor highs at 2638 (Wednesday pit) and at 2612 (yesterday pit).
  3. Test downside, find acceptation below yesterday pit low at 2563 and continue lower, with a minimum of acceleration.


Third and last possibility is: open inside yes pit range, test initially above the 2 back to back poor highs at 2638 and at 2612 and then coming downside towards the opposite side of yes pit in order to take out the yes pit poor low 2563 and eventually the previous gap.

PS: in the case of a huge preUS action before pit open we could also find ourselves with a pit open above the 2 back to back poor highs with a new gap upside. In this case, considering the new gap upside, we could imagine a continuation of the short trend upside after yesterday liquidation. This very last possibility has not so much odds to happen but it reamain a possibility just for the fact that we re in short term trend upside interrupted only once for now.

Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #2,879
  • Jan 27, 2017 6:27am Jan 27, 2017 6:27am
Quoting Lock
Price is currently below yes poor low at 2612 and I'm thinking about the following possibilities. If it will open around current location (or below current one), the old gap upside will be overlapped by a new gap downside and will become a double pass one, price will be automatically in an out of balance environment, a breakout downside from yesterday inside pit session. In this case we could have 3 options: continue lower preserving the new overlapping gap. continue lower after the filling of the new overlapping gap (at least partially). Retrace...
Lock...you are talking about an overlapping gap... but I don't see an overlapping uspit or GB GAP at the moment...?
What are the GAP ranges you talking about....


mhhh I'm missing here something
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #2,880
  • Jan 27, 2017 6:29am Jan 27, 2017 6:29am
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} Lock...you are talking about an overlapping gap... but I don't see an overlapping uspit or GB GAP at the moment...? What are the GAP ranges you talking about.... mhhh I'm missing here something
Ow gush.....I've got him... you mean if open below the US-pit....then we have the GAP...

yes ofcourse....
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
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