Hi Benjamin
Have you added new positions recently?
Have you added new positions recently?
Whats your best money management method? 52 replies
How to flow with the order flow? 26 replies
Money Management / Risk Management 24 replies
Money management model for multiple strategy trading method 16 replies
Most popular money management method. 7 replies
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JAN
26
Are Interest Rates No Longer Driving the Dollar?
The US 10-year yield is at its highs for the year, and yet the US dollar has been struggling to gain traction. Some suggest that this means that the dollar rally is over. Charts like this one are circulating among market participants.
COMMENTARY FROM BENJAMINIS: Since these comments are within my expertise to understand I will offer my views to help all of us understand. The US 10 Year Yield is at it's HIGH as we have been discussing on our thread only because of the FED position on raising Interest Rates perhaps three times during 2017. This announcement created the situation where they broke the Bond Bubble and TRILLIONS of Dollars were LOST as the Bonds sold off and affected Interest Rates around the World.
The MONEY FLOW rotated in Equities as we can all see surely helped along by the election of President Donald John Trump on November 8, 2016.
Now we see the results by the Dow 30 going over 20,000 in the last few days.
This Great Graphic was created on Bloomberg. The white line is the Dollar Index, and the yellow line is the US 10-year yield. The two look highly correlated over the past six months, until very recently.
COMMENTARY FROM BENJAMINIS: The CORRELATION is starting to maybe CHANGE because of the following reasons. The agenda of the FED and the Central Banks around the World appears to be opposite of President Trump. His agenda is to create jobs and protect Americans and help them improve their lives. The AGENDA of the FED and the Central banks is opposite this.
We are not convinced. First, one can see on the chart other times over the past six months where the relationship looked less tight but did not signal a change in drivers. Second, correlation is not something that can always we eyeballed, especially when the chart shows two-time series with two different scales.
JAN
26
Dollar is Firmer, but Mostly Sidelined, as Equity Charge Continues
The US dollar is mostly firmer against the major currencies but is confined to narrow ranges, and well-worn ranges at that, but the focus has shifted to the strong advance in equities. Yesterday, the Dow Jones Industrials finally rose through the psychologically-important 20k level, and the S&P 500 gapped higher to new record levels.
COMMENTARY FROM BENJAMINIS: We now return to President Trump who wants the US Dollar to go down and the FED wants it to go up. The US Dollar MUST go down otherwise it causes harm to the Global community and in effect now the REAL CURRENCY WAR enters into the next stage.
PLEASE POST QUESTIONS IF I HAVE NOT MADE MY EXPLANATION VERY CLEAR. YOU REALLY NEED TO UNDERSTAND AND IT IS NOT THAT HARD IF YOU UNDERSTAND WHAT I HAVE JUST SAID.
The Nikkei and Topix gapped higher too, helping lead the MSCI Asia Pacific Index to a 1% gain and the third rise this week.
JAN
25
Great Graphic: Mexico and China Unit Labor Costs
This Great Graphic was posted by David Merkel on his AlephBlog with a hat tip to Sober Look. It looks at the divergence of unit labor costs in China and Mexico since 2007 through 2015.
The Mexican peso depreciated 17% last year. The yuan fell 6%. That 11% differential likely swamped the change in productivity and wages. That would translate into even greater divergence in unit labor costs.
Benjaminis
Disliked{quote} Good area on your chart Rocky. I do have some counter trades open here. To keep the thread on track...if and after the bounce on usdx, I'll be looking to get short UJ and DOW30 in the direction of the money flow. {image} {image}Ignored
Disliked{quote} Target hit on UJ counter long position. I'm looking to get short, but with DOW above 20,000 and risk on currently, I'm not sure if UJ short will work out. {image}Ignored
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DislikedWill have to agree with you on the equity market collapse. but I do not trade forex as a investment - and defiantly not long term exposure. I scalp and very rarely am I In a forex trade for a full day. I try to have as little exposure as possible - for many reasons. I have been able to average well over 5% with my methods but I am in agreement with you on the risk on. So I have taken other measures to protect equity -- much of what you write about on this thread.Ignored
Disliked{quote} I have learned in life that what we give and share is what we get back. We are all human and like to know that we have value and are appreciated and being appreciated on Forex Factory as Davit said on his thread does not last long since there are more takers in this world then givers. BenjaminisIgnored
Dislikedhttp://blog.afraidtotrade.com/steppi...de.com+Blog%29 Snippet: Finally, we have an exciting and profitable bullish breakout OUT OF our sideways (highlighted) trading range. Unfortunately, we don’t have clear Fibonacci or other key price levels to use as overhead resistance (or support). We’re seeing Breadth (Advancing minus Declining Issues) with price. While Breadth was indeed strong on the...Ignored