Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

Hi Benjamin

Have you added new positions recently?

I closed my SHORT EUR/USD that I put on at 1:47 AM EST when I woke up for a few minutes, following my strategy that I shared yesterday and I have a profit of
$399.00 US Dollars. I shorted at 107.43 and closed at 1.07023.

I now have on 5000 ounces of Long Silver at $16.197 and I shorted 100 units of USD/JPY at 113.628 and these trades were done at 1:45 AM and 1:46 AM EST

I still hold my 5 positions of Short US 30 and I am keeping it open without any Stop Loss and I can wait until it reaches my targets as I am not in any danger of margin calls. I cannot see the Dow 30 not reversing however anything is possible. If I saw it start to head to 21,000 then that would change my thinking immediately.


Benjaminis

https://mishtalk.com/2017/01/26/trum...2-to18-months/

Snippet:
Trump’s Expected Ambassador to EU Says “Short the Euro, Collapse May Come in 12 to18 Months”

26ThursdayJan 2017

Posted by Mish | January 26, 2017 2:57:09 | Economics

Professor Ted Malloch, Trump’s expected ambassador to the EU says “The one thing I would so in 2017 is short the euro.”

Partial Transcript
“I am not certain there will be a European Union in which to have negotiations… The one thing I would do in 2017 is short the euro. I think it is a currency that is not only in demise, but has a real problem and could in fact collapse in the coming year or year and a half.”
It nothing else, Trump is sure to provide fodder for media discussion for four full years.
That aside, it is refreshing to hear such discussions. The breakup of the Eurozone or EU is a very distinct possibility.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock

This Post Can Be Used for this Forex Trading Day good until 6 PM EST. (January 26, 2017)

I start by posting these links as I have done before.


NEWS EVERY FEW SECONDS - CLICK ON LINK

http://finviz.com/news.ashx


5 Minute Chart on US 30 DJIA - Dow 30

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=YM&p=m5


5 Minute Chart on US Dollar Index

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=m5


5 Minute Chart on US 10 Year Bonds

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZN&p=m5


5 Minute Chart on EUR/USD

http://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=EURUSD&tf=m5


5 Minute Chart on USD/JPY

http://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=USDJPY&tf=m5


Benjaminis


NOTE: You can click on other time frames to see the other time frames.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ops+to+zero%29

Snippet:
New Home Sales Collapse In December As Trump Rate Surge Hits
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
by Tyler Durden
Jan 26, 2017 10:09 AM

With soaring mortgage rates and plunging mortgage applications, it should be no surprise that new home sales crashed in December. Analysts expected a modest 0.7% decline but sales crashed 10.4% - the most since March 2015 - and at 536k SAAR, this is the lowest since Feb 2016.
First annual decline since February...
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...125_NHS2_0.png
Home sales in The Midwest crashed 41% sequentially and 29% YoY.
The supply of homes for sale increased to 5.8 months, the highest since September 2015, from 5 months in November. There were 259,000 new houses on the market at the end of December, the most since 2009.
This is the first clear indication that higher rates are crushing the housing market...
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...126_NHS1_0.jpg

And Median home price surges to $322,500, second highest in series history, just lower than the record $323,700 in September
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...70125_NHS3.png

As Bloomberg points out, the figures indicate that the increase in mortgage rates curbed momentum in the housing market after steady job gains and historically low borrowing costs helped push full-year sales to the highest since 2007. Stricter lending standards also remain a hurdle for buyers this year.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ops+to+zero%29

Snippet:

The tweet comes after Mexico’s president on Wednesday once again declared that “Mexico will not pay for any wall” but stopped short of cancelling a visit to Washington after Donald Trump signed executive orders that include building the border barrier.


Enrique Peña Nieto reiterated that Mexico would not put a single peso towards the new US president’s signature project. In a televised address he said: “I regret and reject the decision of the US to build the wall.”

“I have said time and time again, Mexico will not pay for any wall,” Peña Nieto told the nation in his short video statement on Wednesday night.

“Mexico reaffirms its friendship with the people of the United States and its willingness to reach agreements with its government.”

He left up in the air the question of the 31 January meeting with Trump in the White House – saying his decision would depend on an evaluation by a team already in Washington and officials at home.
While the costs of "building the wall" are largely unknown, estimates have been made by both political parties...
https://infographic.statista.com/nor...ico_wall_n.jpg

Mexico now finds itself in a double bind, squeezed not only by Trump, but also by its partner Canada, which as we reproted last night, has left Mexico on its own. Recall that Canada will focus on preserving its U.S. trade ties during talks to renegotiate NAFTA and may not be able to help Mexico avoid being targeted by the Trump administration, Canadian government sources say.

"We love our Mexican friends. But our national interests come first and the friendship comes second," a source said on the sidelines of a cabinet retreat in Calgary, Alberta. "The two are not mutually exclusive," the source added.

In other words, when it comes to preserving NAFTA, it's important, but what is more important is being on good enough terms with Trump to be able to cobble together a bilateral treaty should NAFTA fail. As Reuters reports, the comments are some of the starkest yet by Canadian officials, "who are increasingly convinced Mexico will suffer the most damage from changes to the North American Free Trade Agreement."

Reuters' government sources note Mexico and Canada would appear to have little in common. Trump is unhappy about the large U.S. deficit with Mexico and has promised to punish firms with manufacturing bases there. "Our negotiating positions are totally different. Mexico is being hung out of an skyscraper window by its feet," said a second government source."Mexico is in a terrible, terrible position. We are not," said another Canadian person involved on the trade file.

Nieto just may have to pay for that wall after all.

http://www.marctomarket.com/

Snippet:
Marc to Market

Making Sense of Global Capital Markets

1. Home
2. About
3. As Seen On
4. Noteworthy Posts
5. Making Sense of the Dollar
6. Disclaimer

https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-9C-Z27w3R...7012631346.gif
JAN
26

Are Interest Rates No Longer Driving the Dollar?
The US 10-year yield is at its highs for the year, and yet the US dollar has been struggling to gain traction. Some suggest that this means that the dollar rally is over. Charts like this one are circulating among market participants.

COMMENTARY FROM BENJAMINIS: Since these comments are within my expertise to understand I will offer my views to help all of us understand. The US 10 Year Yield is at it's HIGH as we have been discussing on our thread only because of the FED position on raising Interest Rates perhaps three times during 2017. This announcement created the situation where they broke the Bond Bubble and TRILLIONS of Dollars were LOST as the Bonds sold off and affected Interest Rates around the World.

The MONEY FLOW rotated in Equities as we can all see surely helped along by the election of President Donald John Trump on November 8, 2016.

Now we see the results by the Dow 30 going over 20,000 in the last few days.

This Great Graphic was created on Bloomberg. The white line is the Dollar Index, and the yellow line is the US 10-year yield. The two look highly correlated over the past six months, until very recently.

COMMENTARY FROM BENJAMINIS: The CORRELATION is starting to maybe CHANGE because of the following reasons. The agenda of the FED and the Central Banks around the World appears to be opposite of President Trump. His agenda is to create jobs and protect Americans and help them improve their lives. The AGENDA of the FED and the Central banks is opposite this.

We are not convinced. First, one can see on the chart other times over the past six months where the relationship looked less tight but did not signal a change in drivers. Second, correlation is not something that can always we eyeballed, especially when the chart shows two-time series with two different scales.

JAN
26
Dollar is Firmer, but Mostly Sidelined, as Equity Charge Continues


The US dollar is mostly firmer against the major currencies but is confined to narrow ranges, and well-worn ranges at that, but the focus has shifted to the strong advance in equities. Yesterday, the Dow Jones Industrials finally rose through the psychologically-important 20k level, and the S&P 500 gapped higher to new record levels.

COMMENTARY FROM BENJAMINIS: We now return to President Trump who wants the US Dollar to go down and the FED wants it to go up. The US Dollar MUST go down otherwise it causes harm to the Global community and in effect now the REAL CURRENCY WAR enters into the next stage.
PLEASE POST QUESTIONS IF I HAVE NOT MADE MY EXPLANATION VERY CLEAR. YOU REALLY NEED TO UNDERSTAND AND IT IS NOT THAT HARD IF YOU UNDERSTAND WHAT I HAVE JUST SAID.



The Nikkei and Topix gapped higher too, helping lead the MSCI Asia Pacific Index to a 1% gain and the third rise this week.
JAN
25


Great Graphic: Mexico and China Unit Labor Costs
This Great Graphic was posted by David Merkel on his AlephBlog with a hat tip to Sober Look. It looks at the divergence of unit labor costs in China and Mexico since 2007 through 2015.

The Mexican peso depreciated 17% last year. The yuan fell 6%. That 11% differential likely swamped the change in productivity and wages. That would translate into even greater divergence in unit labor costs.


Benjaminis

Target hit on UJ counter long position. I'm looking to get short, but with DOW above 20,000 and risk on currently, I'm not sure if UJ short will work out.

Updated Chart

https://dailyreckoning.com/david-sto...20Notification

Snippet:
https://dweaay7e22a7h.cloudfront.net...ro-650x360.jpg
https://dweaay7e22a7h.cloudfront.net...raigWilson.jpg
BY CRAIG WILSON
VIDEO POSTED

JANUARY 26, 2017


David Stockman: Trump Sitting On Ticking Fiscal Time Bomb

David Stockman joined Fox Business and Maria Bartiromo on the morning flagship show Mornings with Maria to discuss the growing battle over the U.S national debt.

The conversation started with testimonial hearing notes from Congressman Mick Mulvaney, a Republican from South Carolina, who is currently the nominated to be the incoming White House Director for the Office of Management and Budget.
https://dailyreckoning.com/wp-conten...1/Mulvaney.jpg
Rep. Mulvaney told the confirmation committee hearing, “If you were an ordinary American family the equivalent to you of a $20 trillion debt is a credit card bill of $260,000. American families know what that would mean to them. It is time that this government learns what this means to us.”

In order to expand on Rep. Mulvaney’s insights former OMB director under Ronald Reagan, David Stockman unleashed his debt and budgetary analysis.

Stockman began by saying, “We are a society with baby boomers that are now 35 years older. We are heading into an absolute fiscal bloodbath. As the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) put out, there is $10 trillion more debt built in over the next decade. Even before one dime of tax cuts from Trump, infrastructure spending or an increase in defense takes place.”

David Stockman worked in the Reagan Administration where he oversaw the budget for four years. He is a former two term Congressman who also worked at various Wall Street institutions. Stockman is the current bestselling author of Trumped! A Nation on the Brink of Ruin… And How to Bring It Back.
[Ed. Note: To learn how to score your own FREE copy of Trumped! And have it sent directly to your door CLICK HERE. In it, you will learn the 10 Great Deals Donald Trump must make… and much more. All from Reagan’s former budget confidant.]

“So what I suggest is that we have an even more absurd fiscal proposition from Donald Trump today than we did back in 1981 when we tried to cut taxes, increase defense substantially and balance the budget. They are going to be in crisis within weeks. The debt ceiling was suspended arbitrarily until March 15. When it comes back into effect, there will be $20 trillion of debt.”


“Before they can do anything with all of this stimulus they are talking about they are going to have to raise the debt ceiling. Where are the votes going to come from? It is going to make 2011, and the debt ceiling crisis then, look like a Sunday school picnic.”

When pressed on entitlement spending and the incoming administration, “I think he is clueless about the fiscal mess he is inheriting… We can’t keep drifting toward this wall. When he says we are not going to cut social security or medicare, that is $1.6 trillion per year in spending. When he says we are going to add to Veteran care that is $185 billion. When he says we need much more defense to get strong again, which is not true – we have more defense than we need, that is already $650 billion.”
https://dailyreckoning.com/wp-conten...ed-In-Text.jpg
“What I am telling you is, he is going to increase everything, cut none of the entitlements, argue that he is going to reduce taxes, add a trillion of infrastructure as well. This does not add up. This is worse than what the Reagan administration proposed in 1981. Even then is was called a “riverboat gamble.”

“This is the most irresponsible fiscal equation ever presented to Washington. We have the markets today celebrating 20,000 because they think it is going to be a great stimulus. This is ‘rosy scenario’ all over again.”


“The CBO said $10 trillion in spending over the next decade to be spent if we never have another recession. Think about that. The last one was in 2009, through 2027 they are saying no recession. That is 220 months without a recession. That has never happened in human history.”


To catch the full interview with David Stockman on Fox Business click here.
Thanks for reading,
Craig Wilson, @craig_wilson7
for the Daily Reckoning

Thank You piphunting.

Excellent Analysis and all of us should understand as this gives us more direction in operating our Four Trade Plans.

We need to go to Risk Off which we should have shortly. Shortly can be next week or anytime so just be aware.


Benjaminis

http://www.financialsense.com/charle...9&utm_term=FSO

Snippet:
Want to Bring Back Jobs? It's Impossible Unless We Fix these Four Things


Charles Hugh Smith 01/25/2017

It's your choice, Americayou can keep your cartels and the captured government that enables and protects them, or you can fix what's broken and unaffordable.

If there is any goal that might attract support from across the political spectrum, it's creating more full-time jobs in the US But this laudable goal is dead-on-arrival (DOA) unless we first fix these four things. Why is job growth stagnating? Many point to automation, and yes, that is a systemic dynamic that will only expand going forward.

But much of the stagnation is the direct result of the high costs and structural failures in these four inputs to the job market. US healthcare costs more than twice as much per person as healthcare per person in our advanced-economy competitors. Why would anyone open a business in a nation so poorly run that healthcare costs twice as much as it does everywhere else?

The American people are not healthy. Obesity/obesity-related diseases and opiate addiction are both epidemics. Workers struggling with lifestyle-caused chronic diseases cost more to hire and to help.

If you set out to destroy the nation's ability to create jobs, you'd impose the unaffordable healthcare system we have and the overly complex and costly tax/regulation system we have. And you'd push your students to get useless credentials instead of the real-world skills, moxie and values they need to get ahead and fulfill their potential in a fast-changing economy.

Do you want to create jobs? First, fix these four things, or your goal is DOA.

1. Healthcare, and even more importantly the health of the American people.
2. Taxes. Lower the business/corporate tax rates, simplify tax codes, eliminate the loopholes, skims and scams exploited by the tax avoidance industry.
3. Regulation. Weigh the cost of every regulation against the public good it generates. Include business owners, employees and citizens in the decision processnot just protected, privileged "experts" with no skin in the game, i.e. poobahs whose own fat salaries and benefits are never exposed to the costs or risks of the regulations they impose with such abandon.
4. Education. Instead of focusing on political correctness and "software coding" while shoehorning everyone into useless, rip-off four-year college degrees, focus on providing students with real-world knowledge bases, entrepreneurial moxie and the eight essential soft skills needed to prosper in a fast-changing economy. I explain how to do this in my books Get a Job, Build a Real Career and Defy a Bewildering Economy and The Nearly Free University and the Emerging Economy


Let's do a chart-dump on our sick and unaffordable system of healthcare. Want a quick summary? Prevention isn't profitable, managing chronic illnesses is immensely profitable.

Our healthcare system is ill because our lifestyle makes us ill. There is no other output that is possible with these inputs other than sickness and chronic illness.

http://www.financialsense.com/sites/...healthcare.png

We are what we eat. Oopsno wonder we're in such poor health:

http://www.financialsense.com/sites/...ystem-4-16.png

For every $1, nations like Spain and Japan spend per person on healthcare, the US spends $2.50. If you want to bankrupt the nation and wipe out our global competitiveness, then, by all means, keep the insanely unaffordable system we have:

http://www.financialsense.com/sites/...althcare-2.png

America's Hidden 8% VAT: Sickcare (May 10, 2012)
Sickcare Will Bankrupt the NationAnd Soon (March 21, 2011)
Why America's Healthcare (Sickcare) System Is Broken and Unfixable (July 16, 2014)


We spend twice as much per person yet our life expectancy and other measures of health are tankingdo you see a problem for potential employers? Wake up, America: either get healthy and overhaul sickcare or the nation is doomed. It really is that simple.

http://www.financialsense.com/sites/...are-system.png

If you think this chart will gladden the hearts of potential employers, you've lost your mind: out-of-control government sickcare spending, check; rapidly aging populace of ill people, check; a political system that has been captured by insurers, Big Pharma, and every other cartel that's reaping enormous profits off a sick populace and a sick system, check.

http://www.financialsense.com/sites/...t-medicare.png

We have a simple choice: either fix these four broken systems or go down the drain. The crony-cartel-state system we have is broke and broken. It's your choice, Americayou can keep your cartels and the captured government that enables and protects them, or you can fix what's broken and unaffordable.
For more, please check out Why Our Status Quo Failed and Is Beyond Reform

GREAT GREAT CHART WITH GRAPHICS !!!

http://ritholtz.com/2017/01/biggest-...Big+Picture%29


Biggest Problem Facing America, by Incoming President
January 26, 2017 9:00am by Barry Ritholtz
http://ritholtz.com/wp-content/uploa...7/01/chart.png
Source: Vox




Benjaminis

I sense that some of our Forex Traders here might not be sure how to handle the STATUS QUO that we have at the moment in the markets.

I have been reading the EUR/USD thread and the USD/JPY thread and what I observed there is similar in both threads.

We have three types of Forex traders on Forex Factory. First there are those quite new to trading say one year or less. Then there are those with experience of one to five years and then the veterans of five years and over.

I would say that at least 75% of all Forex traders on this website are traders that use the technical indicators whether just reading the charts to going further really understanding Support and Resistance or Supply and Demand or to more specialized methods such as Pivot Points.

That type of trading was much more effective before the meltdown during 2008. Today it is not sufficient to make profits constantly and if you somehow do when we have major new events such as Brexit and the Election of a new different type of President and all the very many other complex issues out there which many on this thread are now aware about.

I have not pointed out anything new that I have not said before however I now have a new observation because of my new corporate focus on teaching people how to maybe become a professional Forex trader and not everyone can get there.

So in the EUR/USD thread you can see that the mindset is that EUR/USD is going back to 110.00 and not to 105.00 so they try to use the charts to go long and of course this confuses the issue if the TREND for EUR/USD and it most likely will be that way because of the many fundamental and Geopolitical issues.

In the USD/JPY thread not understanding about Risk On and Risk Off and Money Flow and CORRELATION they think that USD/JPY will more likely go back to 120.00 before it goes back to 110.00 or even 105..00.

CLEARLY that is not possible especially when the EQUITY markets collapse and they will.

It now becomes much more clear why those Forex Traders end up with the 95%.

However excellent Forex Traders that are more experience most likely make good profits however over 5% highly unlikely in my opinion. I could be wrong and I hope that I am since I want everyone to make money. Those kind of Forex Traders because of the great unknown ahead of us surely need a Great Risk Management Strategy.

I drew some heat in the last week or so by saying that WE had a FOOL PROOF Risk Management Strategy and I explained it then and again now by saying what it means is that it guarantees that a FOOL cannot become a professional Forex Trader.

Perhaps in our Politically correct world , I should just say instead of FOOL , a foolish person.

Please reply back and give me your own thoughts on my post and if there are other topics that you have questions on please ask me as I am around all day at my home/office doing many things while on and off the computer.


Best regards


Benjaminis

In my last post 1614 , I pointed out my observations on the EUR/USD thread. I just read post number 1,088,635 and here is what it said.

Quoting ForexIdiot69
{quote} It's not uncommon for it to run headfirst into a level and immediately reverse without losing momentum first. Looking at the market profile, I think we've probably printed today's low, or are close to it. Especially now that London is closed. See that purple line at today's current low? That is actually a point of control from the 19th. Bounced right off it, almost perfectly. And we have started to build some value at current prices, as there is volume starting to fill in now. {image}
hi forexidiot69

nice to see you
what is your indicator in your platform? i think your indicator is nice
can you share for me?

The point again NO INDICATOR CAN TELL YOU THE FUTURE with 100% certainty since what you see is an X RAY and nothing more or less. When you have a change in the Trend and do not know why the Trend has changed you are guaranteed to suffer substantial loses before you realize in hindsight what has happened.

That cannot happen here since now even many of you understand now that you have learnt and know that as I have said many times the first and most important part of making Forex Trading a business and a very successful business is yourself. Not to embarrass KeepCalmfx all the qualities that a professional needs KeepCalmfx has. We can see that by the fact that if I was not around KeepCalmfx could carry on.

Then we go to the need to understand MONEY FLOW and why and we do and not just understand it. We have 100% logic and CORRELATION to back up our NEW KNOWLEDGE.

Thirdly because WE are all humans a mistake is always possible and probable so we need PROTECTION from ourselves and that is where Risk Management comes in. You CANNOT HAVE A MARGIN CALL if you follow the rules.

Then we come to the Technical Indicators which most or 75% of Retail and Other Professional Forex Traders use.

While fundamentals which is NEW information put out by the economists whether the information is accurate or not such as NFP once a month. (Non Farm Payroll) it surely MOVES the Currency and other Equity and Commodity markets. The Bond Markets are the KEY to understanding Money Flow.

So now we have our complete package and now it is time and energy and the time to learn and improve..

All Feedback is Good Feedback !!!


Benjaminis

Will have to agree with you on the equity market collapse. but I do not trade forex as a investment - and defiantly not long term exposure.

I scalp and very rarely am I In a forex trade for a full day. I try to have as little exposure as possible - for many reasons. I have been able to average well over 5% with my methods but I am in agreement with you on the risk on. So I have taken other measures to protect equity -- much of what you write about on this thread.

Thank you for your reply and it makes me very happy if I was of help to you in any way. Anytime you have a question or need some information it will be my pleasure to be helpful. I have learned in life that what we give and share is what we get back. We are all human and like to know that we have value and are appreciated and being appreciated on Forex Factory as Davit said on his thread does not last long since there are more takers in this world then givers.

You are one of the good people on Forex Factory. Thank You.


Benjaminis

http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/steppi...de.com+Blog%29

Snippet:
Finally, we have an exciting and profitable bullish breakout OUT OF our sideways (highlighted) trading range.
Unfortunately, we don’t have clear Fibonacci or other key price levels to use as overhead resistance (or support).
We’re seeing Breadth (Advancing minus Declining Issues) with price.
While Breadth was indeed strong on the breakout, we’re seeing fewer stocks advance along with the market.
That’s a negative divergence with price and indeed we’re seeing a pullback take place at the moment.
Take a moment to review our recent post on “Creeper Trend Days” and add that knowledge to today’s market.

COMMENTARY FROM BENJAMINIS: Although I refer to Dow 30 of course SP500 is as important as Dow 30.

KNOWLEDGE IS POWER and Using it gives you another EDGE !!!

Should we call our website the EDGE ?

Actually since this is a public forum and my corporate business is not part of Forex Factory , part of my corporate name is Learning Edge Corporation.

I agree with you, this is very true! And we do appreciate all the info and time you have spent in trying to help us become professional traders. It is hard to have people think otherwise, especially if you really want to help and give so much of your time. Then those word of the "other thread" hurts and I think you could have thought by yourself what is the use, but I know you don't take things personal, even the comments I got, left I bitter taste in my mouth.

But we know what we are doing here and what we are working towards.

I think we have a winner! I like the EDGE