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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #2,761
  • Jan 24, 2017 7:56am Jan 24, 2017 7:56am
Current value is inside yesterday pit value. And obviously we still are inside yesterday pit range. So nothing happened till now.
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  • #2,762
  • Jan 24, 2017 7:59am Jan 24, 2017 7:59am
Quoting Lock
{quote} So C took out the weak 26645 and was not able to stay below early morning low. Now we are at the opposite side of our narrow range again. And we know that it is not a so strong ref. too. Let's see if it will need more balance before to eventually make some test outside range.
It broke this weak resistance and is now testing 25122.
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  • #2,763
  • Jan 24, 2017 8:01am Jan 24, 2017 8:01am
Quoting Lock
Remember the two most important pit references for today: yesterday afternoon pull back low at 24645 and the spike base at 2496. Overnight inventories for now are almost 100% short from yesterday unch at 2533.
Note that preUS and pit US are correcting short inventories left by Tokyo and GB.
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  • #2,764
  • Jan 24, 2017 8:03am Jan 24, 2017 8:03am
Note min. dev. of C period above early morning B high and below current D low: we need to preserv some of it for any meaninfull continuation upside of this test.
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  • #2,765
  • Jan 24, 2017 8:05am Jan 24, 2017 8:05am
Remember that GB D period high 2533 is the top of the shakeout made this morning during news.
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  • #2,766
  • Edited 9:16am Jan 24, 2017 9:04am | Edited 9:16am
Quoting Lock
Note min. dev. of C period above early morning B high and below current D low: we need to preserv some of it for any meaninfull continuation upside of this test.
Note that even if we preserved a clean space above B period, it is only 1 single pip above it and it is also a low (E low) made at round number (2500): so overall it is clearly a weak ref. In the meanwhile we also took out the morning GB D high (the news shakeout high 25325), consequently watch out. This action upside could last in order to take out the poor Tokyo high, but it is weak.
The contrasting aspect of this weaknesses coming higher is the fact that we are in a short term trend upside, supported by 2 consecutive gaps and by current one timeframing higher of the pit sessions' action*.

*I'm referring to the one timeframing higher action of the last 5 pit sessions from 19.01.

Finally note that we already reached the yesterday pit unchanged price (yes pit close at 2533) so the overnight inventories that were too short at pit start are now substantially covered. For any meaningfull continuation upside we now need acceptation above yes pit unch and above yes pit high at 2537.
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  • #2,767
  • Edited 11:30pm Jan 24, 2017 11:14pm | Edited 11:30pm
17/01/25 WEDNESDAY 08:14+1GMT
EARLY MORNING REPORT

We are in a monthly balance, a weekly balance and a daily short term uptrend. There is the possibility of mid term buyers at the bottom of the major barcket also, as shown in the attached daily chart. Currently price is retesting the previous major trend line of the initial short covering after the 07.10.16 fall.
The current short term up trend is confirmed by the fact that all the major sessions are one timeframing higher too: Tokyo, GB and US. Also it is supported by two consecutive gap zones both for GB and US pit.
On the smallest scale we are in a two day GB/pit sessions balance. Pit range is 24435-2542 while GB range is 24183-25325.
So balance rules will apply here:

  1. we could remain in balance;
  2. test upside or downside and fail (natural initial direction, opposite side of the first breakeven) or
  3. test upside or downside and succeed, in this case we will have to monitor for continuation.

Note that currently both GB and pit sessions have their respective value overlapping to higher from previous one. See chart attached.
Current short term auction upside results uncompleted as all the last sessions highs are back to back one each other in the clustering zone 2544.
This does not mean we cannot have a liquidation from here, but it means that the short term auction upwards appears incomplete and without a test above that cluster the odds are that any action downside should only be old business (readjusting of too long inventories) and not new business (new short term money selling)

Having said that, let's see where the next GB session is willing to open: for now we are inside yesterday GB range (24183-25325)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 84 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image2.png Size: 138 KB
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  • #2,768
  • Jan 25, 2017 12:07am Jan 25, 2017 12:07am
GB opened inside yesterday GB range, so we are in balance. Note "O" period of Tokyo testing yesterday Tokyo close at 24925. Remember also that till GB "B" period close we will have Tokyo perticipants in the market.
Now GB is testing the important 25122 level. We told about it in the last days.
Note that in a balance environment our expectations should be more modest than if we were in an outside environment, because an open in balance means at least initial acceptation of the previous price range.
An exception could be when price opens and immediately goes outside of previous balance.
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  • #2,769
  • Jan 25, 2017 12:17am Jan 25, 2017 12:17am
Remember that yesterday GB session made a final little test downside, closing at the bottom of its range: even if very little it was a spike. (spike base 2436) So price opened above that level. This could be read as an initial rejection of that attempt downside.
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  • #2,770
  • Jan 25, 2017 12:22am Jan 25, 2017 12:22am
Highest close for current year is for GB at 25305, while for pit session slightly above it at 2533. Highest high for GB is again only some pips above the close at 25325 as pit highest high is at 2542 and tokyo highest high is at 25435. This cluster of highest references is clearly very interesting for current market participants of all sessions.
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  • #2,771
  • Jan 25, 2017 12:40am Jan 25, 2017 12:40am
Note that in a balance environment the most dangerous/profitable zones are its extremes. The top and the bottom of the balance. If something has to go wrong is below balance high or above balance low. Serious/professional traders buy above balance and sell below balance. Or, if they saw other weaker traders in troubles, they will sell below balance high or buy above its low in order to squeeze them. This is a general behaviour, so consider this while we are approaching the top of GB 2 sessions range.
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  • #2,772
  • Jan 25, 2017 1:02am Jan 25, 2017 1:02am
Obviously all of you noted B inside A.
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  • #2,773
  • Jan 25, 2017 1:22am Jan 25, 2017 1:22am
Quoting Lock
Note that in a balance environment the most dangerous/profitable zones are its extremes. The top and the bottom of the balance. If something has to go wrong is below balance high or above balance low. Serious/professional traders buy above balance and sell below balance. Or, if they saw other weaker traders in troubles, they will sell below balance high or buy above its low in order to squeeze them. This is a general behaviour, so consider this while we are approaching the top of GB 2 sessions range....
As you see. Now we are inside a previous big GB gap downside that has its top at 26353. And we are tagging a previous Tokyo poor high at 2567. Next closest composite poc is at 2587. Note that for any continuation upside we need acceptation above the cluster we were speaking about this morning (2544 level)
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  • #2,774
  • Jan 25, 2017 1:25am Jan 25, 2017 1:25am
Quoting Lock
{quote} As you see. Now we are inside a previous big GB gap downside that has its top at 26353. And we are tagging a previous Tokyo poor high at 2567. Next closest composite poc is at 2587. Note that for any continuation upside we need acceptation above the cluster we were speaking about this morning (2544 level)
And remember that 26345 is the November 2016 high, previous monthly breakeven.
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  • #2,775
  • Jan 25, 2017 1:28am Jan 25, 2017 1:28am
Quoting Lock
{quote} As you see. Now we are inside a previous big GB gap downside that has its top at 26353. And we are tagging a previous Tokyo poor high at 2567. Next closest composite poc is at 2587. Note that for any continuation upside we need acceptation above the cluster we were speaking about this morning (2544 level)
2567 obviously taken out.
and here we are at the closest composit poc 2587 (3 pips below it).
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  • #2,776
  • Jan 25, 2017 1:29am Jan 25, 2017 1:29am
Note the huge amount of single pips of current C break period. Carry this info forward.
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  • #2,777
  • Jan 25, 2017 1:36am Jan 25, 2017 1:36am
Quoting Lock
{quote} And remember that 26345 is the November 2016 high, previous monthly breakeven.
*Is the pit session break even. Not the absolute November high obviously that is instead at 2673 (made by GB 11.11.16).
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  • #2,778
  • Jan 25, 2017 1:40am Jan 25, 2017 1:40am
Quoting Lock
{quote} 2567 obviously taken out. and here we are at the closest composite poc 2587 (3 pips below it).
Now tagged.
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  • #2,779
  • Jan 25, 2017 1:47am Jan 25, 2017 1:47am
I'm off for a while.
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  • #2,780
  • Jan 25, 2017 2:34am Jan 25, 2017 2:34am
E period is only 1 single pip short of D low. Consequently it can be considered an inside period. Balance rules apply again here.
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