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Most traders fail because of no discipline!

  • #221
  • Jan 24, 2017 3:47pm Jan 24, 2017 3:47pm
You say the market is not random...
Would you be willing to bet your life on whether or not you can choose the next tick correctly?
NO?
You believe there is a possibility you may choose incorrectly?
What happened to your confidence that the market is not random?
QED
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #222
  • Jan 24, 2017 4:10pm Jan 24, 2017 4:10pm
Quoting BenjaminIs
I use my standard goal of reaching 5% a month each and every month of trading Forex as long as the minimum trading Capital is $50,000
Hi BenjaminIs,

Wow, very impressive, that means you are making 80% a year on a compound basis, almost 10 times the ROI of the S&P 500!

What is your maximum drawdown if I may ask?
  • #223
  • Jan 24, 2017 4:38pm Jan 24, 2017 4:38pm
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} Robert Ringer calls this the Definition Game in Looking Out for Number One. Heres how its played: We are all involuntary participants in the Definition Game. Because each of us is a unique human being with varying desires, tastes, prejudices, experiences and personality traits, we see things differently. . . What further complicates the game is that people have a habit of changing their definitions as they go along.
Agree and it all lead back to the individual psychology of a trader!
  • #224
  • Jan 24, 2017 6:55pm Jan 24, 2017 6:55pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
{quote} Hi BenjaminIs, Wow, very impressive, that means you are making 80% a year on a compound basis, almost 10 times the ROI of the S&P 500! What is your maximum drawdown if I may ask?
Dear Friend

I have no secrets and if you send me a PM , I will send you my trades so you can verify for yourself if you want to. What I did on my thread that I started on December 3, 2016 in advance of my corporate website being finalized is open my own Demo Account on December 20, 2016 and as of earlier today trading in real time and posting all my Forex Trades , I am up over 25% in almost 7 weeks.

I average 10% a month or higher or minimum 120% a year. My method developed is the reason. I would guess that you could do the same or better. I trade using fundamentals and technicals and sufficient capital with a FOOL PROOF Risk Management system designed by myself and OUR EDGE because once you know it belongs to yourself as well is my Money Flow Method. One of my friends and students opened the demo account on December 27, 2016 and KeepCalmfx earned over 20% using my way of trading. That even amazed me.


Benjaminis
  • #225
  • Jan 24, 2017 7:01pm Jan 24, 2017 7:01pm
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...isn-t-priority

 

  1. Treasury nominee says he supports recent moves on transparency
  2. House Republicans seek closer scrutiny of Fed policy actions


https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/...o/v0/-1x-1.jpg
Mnuchin during his confirmation hearing in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 19, 2017.

Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg

U.S. Treasury Secretary nominee Steven Mnuchin isn’t jumping on the Republican bandwagon to audit the Fed.

In written questions by senators following his confirmation hearing on Thursday, Mnuchin was asked about his thoughts on “politicizing decisions made by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and the benefits of an independent central bank.”

Mnuchin’s answer was crafted carefully.
“The Federal Reserve is organized with sufficient independence to conduct monetary policy and open market operations,” Mnuchin responded to Senator Bill Nelson, a Florida Democrat. “I endorse the increased transparency we have seen from the Federal Reserve Board over recent years.”

The response appears to lean against legislation such as the Fed Oversight Reform and Modernization Act of 2015, or FORM Act, which was introduced in the House of Representatives but never became law, that would have subjected the central bank’s monetary policy decisions to greater congressional scrutiny.
As a candidate, President Donald Trump took aim at the Federal Reserve for playing politics, challenging its legitimacy as an independent institution. He accused the central bank of keeping interest rates low to benefit Barack Obama’s administration.

Mnuchin’s comments are “certainly endorsing the principle, if not every current detail of the practice of Fed independence,” said Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP LLC in Jersey City, New Jersey. “He does not want to make waves at this stage.”

Fed Vacancies

The seven-seat Fed Board in Washington currently has two vacancies, while Janet Yellen’s term as chair ends in February 2018 and Stanley Fischer’s term as vice chairman ends in June 2018. Trump can nominate his own choices for those positions, giving him significant scope to shape the Fed’s leadership and raising questions about the central bank’s future relationship with the Treasury and White House.

“People are asking questions and are curious if the Trump appointments could affect the conduct of policy,” said Paul Mortimer-Lee, chief economist for North America at BNP Paribas in New York. “I think it will be very tough to change very much” with the Fed’s mandate for stable prices and full employment so well established.


The FORM Act would have required the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed’s policy panel, to submit its policy rule to Congress. If the Fed deviated from its rule, it would be subject to review by the Government Accountability Office and potentially an audit.


Bogged Down
The bill got bogged down in the Senate. Yellen opposed the FORM Act in a letter to Congress in November 2015, calling some of its provisions “significantly flawed.” A bill with similar requirements for the Fed called the Financial Choice Act hasn’t proceeded since being introduced last year.

Mnuchin’s comments point to the fact that the Fed doesn’t have constitutional independence. That’s protected more by organization of the system, as Mnuchin highlighted, where the heads of 12 regional Federal Reserve banks are appointed by private citizens. That’s a check against the influence of the White House appointees on the Fed Board.


Mnuchin also limited his discussion of independence to monetary policy. That could be significant if it suggests that Fed decision-making on financial regulation and crisis management will be up for challenge and debate under Trump.


“There needs to be more democratic accountability at the Fed but he seems to be OK with the status quo,” said Jeff Hauser from the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington.

COMMENTARY FROM BENJAMINIS: Ladies and Gentleman , The GAME IS RIGGED !!! We will see more on February 1, 2017 at the next FED rate Announcement.


Fascinating !!!

  • #226
  • Jan 24, 2017 8:08pm Jan 24, 2017 8:08pm
Quoting dukas_trader
in the forex market more then 90% of the retail trader fail. and they have to fail offcourse, because the forex market is a zero sum game like poker.
Where do you guys get those ideas?

Forex market IS NOT zero sum game!

Forex market exists to facilitate international trade. Simply as that. Just because some speculators decided to gamble on it, it does not mean it is any kind of the game for all participants.

Let me give you a real life example. Couple months ago Singapore Airlines hedged contract for fuel at $80 per barrel (if I recall correctly), when price was at around $40 and was heading toward $20. Do you recon they somehow "lost", because they paid such a high price and some speculator and minor fund facilitated their position taking other side of the trade? I can say, they did not cared and are not interested in any zero-whatever-sum games. For them is it a cost, to make sure they can run business that brings them real money.

Have you been following COT reports? Have you noticed that entries of "commercials" are not the most accurate? Why now? Are those "commercials" so stupid that they cannot outsmart an average retail speculator trading from a bedroom? Or maybe simply they dont care to call accurately bottom or top, because for them it is more important to align their business with general economy sentiment, rather they play games? Does it make sense?

Retail speculators fails, because (among other reasons) dont have enough capital and play catch-me-if-you can with a broker and (indirectly) LPs. It does not mean the serious market participants are in the same game at all, even if they are in the same market.

BenjaminIs gives some other good ideas in his thread, on fundamental side, why specific markets/instruments might move. Read that and you might have a chance to do some winning, rather then following tons of (mostly useless) indicators.

Understand your market first. Understand that market is moved by sentiment. And sentiment is created by people. And people are affected by economic and political fundamentals. Anything else is a fluctuation, some wobbling due to day-to-day operations.
  • #227
  • Jan 24, 2017 8:16pm Jan 24, 2017 8:16pm
Quoting kpclick
{quote} Where do you guys get those ideas? Forex market IS NOT zero sum game! Forex market exists to facilitate international trade. Simply as that. Just because some speculators decided to gamble on it, it does not mean it is any kind of the game for all participants. Let me give you a real life example. Couple months ago Singapore Airlines hedge contract for fuel at $80 per barrel (if I recall correctly), when price was at around $40 and was heading toward $20. Do you recon they somehow "lost", because they paid such a high price and some speculator...
Great Post - Thanks , I love reading things based on Common Sense and logic. Nice to see you post again. Good Evening !!!


Benjaminis
  • #228
  • Jan 24, 2017 8:53pm Jan 24, 2017 8:53pm
Quoting kpclick
{quote} Forex market IS NOT zero sum game!

Oh boy!

So when you earn 100 pips in the Forex market, where does the money come from?
Who is paying you?


Quoting kpclick
Couple months ago Singapore Airlines hedged contract for fuel at $80 per barrel (if I recall correctly), when price was at around $40 and was heading toward $20. Do you recon they somehow "lost"
You must be joking, right?

When a corporation uses the Futures or the Forex market to hedge their commercial activity, they DO lose money on that transaction when they are on the wrong side of the market. And that money goes into the pocket of the speculator who took the other side of the trade.

Of course these hedgers get that money back in the cash market but they still lose in the Futures or the FX market, sometimes millions of dollars or euros.

That's why the Forex and the Futures markets are called zero-sum game (in fact it is a slightly negative game due to transactions costs).
  • #229
  • Jan 24, 2017 9:02pm Jan 24, 2017 9:02pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
{quote} Oh boy! So when you earn 100 pips in the Forex market, where does the money come from? Who is paying you? {quote} You must be joking, right? When a corporation uses the Futures or the Forex market to hedge their commercial activity, they DO lose money on that transaction if they are on the wrong side of the market. And that money goes into the pocket of the speculator who took the other side of the trade. Of course these hedgers get that money back in the cash market but they still lose in the Futures or the FX market, sometimes millions...
You have speculator's mindset. I am afraid it is not curable... at least not easily.

When you say: "When a corporation uses the Futures or the Forex market to hedge their commercial activity, they DO lose money on that transaction if they are on the wrong side of the market" - you have not idea what are you talking about. You have no idea how those people operate and what is their mindset.

Look at the interview with Singapure Airline's CEO - it should be somewhere on Bloomberg. Maybe that voice with spark your mind. Obviously you dont care for my word and logical argument... so there is not point to argue... use it or loose it, as they say...
  • #230
  • Jan 24, 2017 9:08pm Jan 24, 2017 9:08pm
Quoting kpclick
{quote} You have speculator's mindset. I am afraid it is not curable... at least not easily. When you say: "When a corporation uses the Futures or the Forex market to hedge their commercial activity, they DO lose money on that transaction if they are on the wrong side of the market" - you have not idea what are you talking about. You have no idea how those people operate and what is their mindset. Look at the interview with Singapure Airline's CEO - it should be somewhere on Bloomberg. Maybe that voice with spark your mind. Obviously you dont care...
Again, I will repeat the (very simple) question: When you win $1000 in the Forex or Futures market, where does the money come from?
Who is paying you?
  • #231
  • Jan 24, 2017 9:13pm Jan 24, 2017 9:13pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
{quote} Again, I will repeat the (very simple) question: When you win $1000 in the Forex or Futures market, where does the money come from? Who is paying you?
And again I am repeating my answer: dont be lazy and look for an interview with Signapure Airline's CEO.

You are NOT arguing with me how large commercials operate. You are arguing with one of the hand-on-job guys. You know, one of the fellows who actually run multi-billion dollars commercial operation, not couple cent account in local bucket shop. Find his arguments and oppose them. Surely you have more practice and experience in their business then them!

Sorry boy, as I said, speculator's mindset is not easily curable...
  • #232
  • Jan 24, 2017 9:25pm Jan 24, 2017 9:25pm
Quoting kpclick
{quote} And again I am repeating my answer: dont be lazy and look for an interview with Signapure Airline's CEO. You are NOT arguing with me how large commercials operate. You are arguing with one of the hand-on-job guys. You know, one of the fellows who actually run multi-billion dollars commercial operation, not couple cent account in local bucket shop. Find his arguments and oppose them. Surely you have more practice and experience in their business then them! Sorry boy, as I said, speculator's mindset is not easily curable...
You obviously have no idea how hedging works.

Here is a website that explains the hedging process with a simple example:
http://www.theoptionsguide.com/wheat...ort-hedge.aspx

Read and reread the part that says:
With 100 contracts covering a total of 500,000 bushels of wheat, the total loss [for the hedger] from the short futures position is USD 285,000.

That $285.000 will end up in the pocket of the traders who took the other side of the trade.
  • #233
  • Jan 24, 2017 9:44pm Jan 24, 2017 9:44pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
{quote} You obviously have no idea how hedging works.
No no... you are saying that Goh Choon Phong is not aware if hedging has impact on his businesses and he is not able to define its core operation and do revenue/cost analysis. In other words you are saying Goh Choon Phong does not know how to run his business

Additionally you are saying that 300K cost of hedging has significance for a company that runs $15,228 million revenue. And that is really funny. I always though 300k cost would be more like basic salary of 2-3 of higher-level managers, which for an organisation that size means really nothing.

Again, you dont understand their mindset... and your small scale speculator's one is not easily curable... obviously you will insist on your position against facts, you even did not bother read my first post properly...
  • #234
  • Jan 24, 2017 9:57pm Jan 24, 2017 9:57pm
Randomness equates to luck. For example a person winning the lottery is totally random. So even in a random market someone wins.
A zero sum games assumes no one wins in the end. It is theory. In reality, it does not matter if the market is random or not random. Someone wins.
When you can identify a non random event and know how to make money from it and do it consistently, it becomes trading skill and talent.
You came here for the truth and let me unveil it for you
  • #235
  • Jan 24, 2017 10:00pm Jan 24, 2017 10:00pm
Quoting kpclick
{quote} No no... you are saying that Goh Choon Phong is blah blah blah
What some guy is saying is not the issue here!

Hedgers DO lose money in the Futures/Forex Markets, end of story.
Yes they get it back in the cash market but that's not point.

The point is when the hedger loses money (in the Futures/FX market), that money simply goes to another trader/speculator/hedger, period, that's why these markets are called zero sum games.

The Futures and Forex markets create absolutely no wealth overall, they just take money from the losers and give it to the winners.
  • #236
  • Jan 24, 2017 10:14pm Jan 24, 2017 10:14pm
Guys lets get back to the topic which is all about discipline in trading, Mr Breakout and kpclick maybe both right, maybe it is just a matter of perspective that really differs here, but anyway I am just an ordinary retail trader and I dont have a very broad understanding of the market, what I did know that I have a specific strategy to follow and I am discipline in implementing its rules and at the end of the month my profits is up, whether you agree or not that trading is a zero sum game or random in nature, it does not matter what matter most is you make money, end of story. Peace!
  • #237
  • Jan 24, 2017 10:21pm Jan 24, 2017 10:21pm
Quoting techboy46
what I did know that I have a specific strategy to follow and I am discipline in implementing its rules and at the end of the month my profits is up
I am totally with you on that one.

It is impossible to trade with discipline without very clear trading rules and very specific entry/stop/exit points.
  • #238
  • Jan 24, 2017 10:38pm Jan 24, 2017 10:38pm
Quoting techboy46
Guys lets get back to the topic which is all about discipline in trading, Mr Breakout and kpclick maybe both right, maybe it is just a matter of perspective that really differs here, but anyway I am just an ordinary retail trader and I dont have a very broad understanding of the market, what I did know that I have a specific strategy to follow and I am discipline in implementing its rules and at the end of the month my profits is up, whether you agree or not that trading is a zero sum game or random in nature, it does not matter what matter most...
No, it is not a matter of perspective and it is not the end of story.

What you are saying is that you have some sort of price setup (most likely based on technical analysis) and based on some back testing and statistics you are willing to gamble in hope that past performance will repeat in the future.

Also what you are saying is that you are willing to execute this strategy with super-human discipline (because you think discipline is the most important haha), even if it goes against you, because you are not willing to consider other factors that in fact drive you instrument.

Also you said "I am just an ordinary retail trader and I dont have a very broad understanding of the market", which really means "I am too lazy to understand economics and politics and I refuse to learn that, because it is too hard". In other words, you are admitting you dont want to learn anything new. You are comfortable in your little silo. You are willing to ignore facts, ignore people who actually move the market and you are willing to swim against the tide with great discipline (I admit), perhaps right to the end... All in sake of believe, that discipline will save you.

And so lemmings do, they have fantastic discipline ...

That is what I said before: I can give you an mechanical, legitimate system and you can ignore fundamentals and execute this systems with great discipline... right to the big zero

Of course you choose your path and at the end of day, nobody can save your from yourself, if you not allow it. Some people cannot be safe, sad but true.

Quote: "whether you agree or not that trading is a zero sum game or random in nature" - and that statement only shows your level of ignorance. But I am not surprised, you admitted yourself you are not willing to learn. What is interesting though is observing how people defense their believes in random, zero-sum forex market and call anybody who thinks differently "mental" along with word "peace"... almost at level of religious fanaticism....
  • #239
  • Jan 24, 2017 10:46pm Jan 24, 2017 10:46pm
Quoting kpclick
"I am too lazy to understand economics and politics and I refuse to learn that, because it is too hard".
If trading was about understanding economics and politics, economics and political science teachers would all be billionaires by now.

Please stop talking nonsense and go easy with the insults.
  • #240
  • Jan 24, 2017 10:50pm Jan 24, 2017 10:50pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
{quote} If trading was about understanding economics and politics, economics and political science teachers would all be billionaires by now. Please stop talking nonsense and go easy with the insults.
Maybe you start to learn how to read with comprehension? That could be a good step...

When exactly I said that trading is only about understanding economics and politics, economics and political science?

Here is something useful for you:

https://prezi.com/if1lsgcj6hvy/how-c...th-problem-so/
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