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  • #201
  • Jan 23, 2017 4:01pm Jan 23, 2017 4:01pm
Quoting techboy46
Fellow posters on this thread, let us keep our discussions relevant to the topic and trading, let us respect each others opinion,no personal attack as much as possible, what is important is we will learn something from anybody and it can help us all becoming a better trader!
Nice thought.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #202
  • Jan 23, 2017 4:02pm Jan 23, 2017 4:02pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
{quote} Nobody is focusing on you, we are merely reacting to some of your posts.
Then do not make disparaging remarks about me.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #203
  • Edited 4:22pm Jan 23, 2017 4:07pm | Edited 4:22pm
Quoting techboy46
That is why market is unpredictable in nature because of its randomness characteristic
There is of course some randomness, no doubt.

However, this semi-randomness virtually disappears when the markets start a new trend.

Why?

Because mathematicians noticed a long time ago that markets trend longer than would be expected if prices were randomly distributed. Prices have what mathematicians call a fat tail (google for it).

All trend-following techniques are entirely based on this statistical anomaly.
  • #204
  • Jan 23, 2017 4:35pm Jan 23, 2017 4:35pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
{quote} There is of course some randomness, no doubt. However, this semi-randomness virtually disappears when the markets start a new trend. Why? Because mathematicians noticed a long time ago that markets trend longer than would be expected if prices were randomly distributed. Prices have what mathematicians call a fat tail (google for it). All trend-following techniques are entirely based on this statistical anomaly.
In general I agree on major points, but again even on trending market still traders cannot be 100% sure that they can be a winner or loser on a particular trade, that alone justify randomness of the market, there is nothing bad about randomness really because it can be statistically in our favor if we have the right method used in our trading.Mathematicians are good only on data and statistics but they are not good traders and trading is not a science its more psychological(other say its an art), that is why statistics and algorithm does not fit well in trading.
  • #205
  • Jan 23, 2017 8:20pm Jan 23, 2017 8:20pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
{quote} There is of course some randomness, no doubt. However, this semi-randomness virtually disappears when the markets start a new trend. Why? Because mathematicians noticed a long time ago that markets trend longer than would be expected if prices were randomly distributed. Prices have what mathematicians call a fat tail (google for it). All trend-following techniques are entirely based on this statistical anomaly.
Trend is a concept.
That is why trader's disagree.
That is why there is a market.

This describes trend: [COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.8)](2) [/color]Hindsight Bias[COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.8)] — “The inclination, after an event has occurred, to see the event as having been predictable, despite there having been little or no objective basis for predicting it.” [/color]
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #206
  • Jan 23, 2017 8:25pm Jan 23, 2017 8:25pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
{quote} Oh yeah? So if the markets are random, how come you are making money trading (according to your track record) ?
My first answer, lucky, was me being flip but honest and truthful.
In order for my trade to be a winner, other people have to move the market in my favor. (See Mark Douglas).
My trades are based on something that happens every trading day - the market makes new highs/lows and reverses from those levels.
Simple yet profitable.
Can't tell you in advance but know what to do when it happens.
My rules are few and simple.
You don't have to take my word for it.
View my threads and see other traders' success.


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You don't have to take my word for it.
View my threads and see other traders' success.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #207
  • Jan 23, 2017 8:32pm Jan 23, 2017 8:32pm
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} My first answer, lucky, was me being flip but honest and truthful. In order for my trade to be a winner, other people have to move the market in my favor. (See Mark Douglas). My trades are based on something that happens every trading day - the market makes new highs/lows and reverses from those levels. Simple yet profitable. Can't tell you in advance but know what to do when it happens. My rules are few and simple. You don't have to take my word for it. View my threads and see other traders' success. Bruce-Lee-Quote-Right-time.jpg;2152602...
nice,the truth is that there are people who have very huge egos and they cant really accept that they failed in forex trading and thats why they would rather say its impossible to make money in forex trading.
100% KENYAN.
  • #208
  • Jan 23, 2017 8:58pm Jan 23, 2017 8:58pm
Quoting TooSlow
Trend is a concept.
The trend is a mathematical reality, not some concept or philosophical idea.

The most successful hedge funds make billions following this trend on dozens and dozens of uncorrelated markets.
  • #209
  • Edited 9:38pm Jan 23, 2017 9:06pm | Edited 9:38pm
Quoting TooSlow
My trades are based on something that happens every trading day - the market makes new highs/lows and reverses from those levels. Simple yet profitable.
That proves that the market is NOT random!

A chart pattern that makes money consistently is the proof that markets are not random!!

In your example if the market was random, it would make new highs/lows and then reverse 50% of the time and continue 50% of the time, in a totally random manner.
And then you would be totally unable to extract one penny from this random market, your stop would be hit 50% of the time and your target 50% of the time on average (assuming 1 to 1 risk reward).

In the long run the broker will take all your money, due to transactions costs, end of story.

This is what I have been trying to explain to you all day!
  • #210
  • Jan 23, 2017 10:56pm Jan 23, 2017 10:56pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
{quote} The trend is a mathematical reality, not some concept or philosophical idea. The most successful hedge funds make billions following this trend on dozens and dozens of uncorrelated markets.
If that is the case, there would exist a trend indicator and sooner or later the market would cease to exist.

Ask a dozen traders what the trend is.
Some say long.
Some say short.
Some say sideways LOL!

What does it matter to you what hedge funds make?
What matters to me is what I make.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #211
  • Jan 23, 2017 11:02pm Jan 23, 2017 11:02pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
{quote} That proves that the market is NOT random! A chart pattern that makes money consistently is the proof that markets are not random!! In your example if the market was random, it would make new highs/lows and then reverse 50% of the time and continue 50% of the time, in a totally random manner. And then you would be totally unable to extract one penny from this random market, your stop would be hit 50% of the time and your target 50% of the time on average (assuming 1 to 1 risk reward). In the long run...
You have at least one incorrect assumption.
What is random?
Can you say with 100% certainty the high will occur before the low?
No one can.
One day the high occurs after the low.
Perhaps the next the same.
And maybe the day after that the same.
What about the fourth day?
Is there a 50/50 chance?
No.
This isn't a coin flip nor a dice game nor a card game.
Probabilities in trading do not exist.
What happens next in trading is random.
Whether it be the next tick or the next high.

You assume I need you to explain things to me.
Not the case at all.

The chart contains my rules.

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It bothers me to post results because it only creates questions and accusations.
Sometimes it is necessary to get someone off my case.
Real US$ not demo.

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Can't with them all
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #212
  • Jan 23, 2017 11:32pm Jan 23, 2017 11:32pm
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} If that is the case, there would exist a trend indicator and sooner or later the market would cease to exist.
That's it, I give up.
  • #213
  • Jan 23, 2017 11:50pm Jan 23, 2017 11:50pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
{quote} That's it, I give up.
Here is the FACTUAL take on this issue. I only state facts 100% accurate and not because I say so. The charts are moved by either fundamental facts such as the decision in London tomorrow about what the Parliament needs to do concerning Brexit. Whatever the decision GBP/USD will move and probably EUR/USD as well.

However the 100% accurate fact is the Money Flow. When we have Risk Off money flows in one direction for safety whether in USD/JPY or USD/CHF or 2 Year Us Bonds and 5 Year US Bonds or 10 Year US Bonds or 30 Year US Bonds.


When we have Risk On the reverse takes place.


A move of 100 to 300 PIPS is not uncommon anymore.

Brexit and US Elections are two of those examples.

Charts are only an X Ray of the moment. That is how it works so whomever want to use the information please go ahead.

Our Thread confirms these facts everyday. President Donald John Trump wants a weaker US Dollar so that is what we can expect. Tonight it is below 100.000

5 Minute Chart on US Dollar Index

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=m5

Have a great trading day. Time for bed.


Benjaminis
  • #214
  • Jan 24, 2017 12:01am Jan 24, 2017 12:01am
Quoting BenjaminIs
A move of 100 to 300 PIPS is not uncommon anymore.
In 2008 some currency pairs moved 1,000 pips or more almost daily.

I miss those moves.
  • #215
  • Edited 12:36pm Jan 24, 2017 2:03am | Edited 12:36pm
@TooSlow, @Mr Breakout:

I'm not trying to be a kiss-ass, but you guys are both correct. You merely have a different perspective on what the word "random" means. I recognize this because randomness is often discussed in trading forums, and this type of confusion in terminology inevitably occurs.

If I understand correctly.......

Mr Breakout shares my own definition of "random", as also implicit in 'expectancy theory' that's understood by statisticians and professional gamblers. If the market was a completely random walk -- i.e. if price had exactly a 50/50 probability of rising or falling at all times -- then ALL trading systems would have a net expectancy of zero minus costs, and hence ALL traders would eventually lose. Skeptics, and academic proponents of 'efficient market hypothesis', believe that this is actually the case, i.e. that all P/L is merely fortuitous. I disagree with these skeptics. I believe that 'fat tails' exist, i.e. that macroeconomic, geopolitical, central bank intervention, heavyweight manipulation, trader psychology and a host of other factors occasionally cause longer-than-'normal' trends to occur, and that this non-randomness (some more examples in myth #22 here) can potentially be exploited by the skilled trader. In other words, a systematic income is possible if you're knowledgeable enough (example here). That is what statisticians and professional gamblers call an 'edge'. Mark Douglas explains this in some detail in his popular book Trading in the Zone. [Note: mzvega's earlier post is also a good read, IMHO].

TooSlow (again, if I understand correctly) has a different take on "random". What he is saying is that coin toss and casino-type games have predictably calculable odds, whereas markets -- which always consist of a mix of anonymous participants whose agendas are unknown to the retail trader -- lack this uniformity, and he defines this lack of predictability as "randomness". But he nonetheless sees systematic profit as being attainable.

(OK guys, do I have it right?)

There's also a third widely used definition of "randomness" used in trading forums, namely that markets are "random" because they don't behave in entirely predictable fashion. In other words, that we can't be 100% certain where price will be at any given future point. The folk who use this definition see anything less than 100% certainty as being "random".
________________________
[EDIT] Re randomness and randomly generated (fake) charts........ some more possibly relevant context here here and here.
  • #216
  • Jan 24, 2017 4:56am Jan 24, 2017 4:56am
in the forex market more then 90% of the retail trader fail. and they have to fail offcourse, because the forex market is a zero sum game like poker. if you calculate the Spread and commission in, then its even a minus game in the sum for all retailtraders.

because different to the stock market, in forex market allways some/someone needs to lose when som/someone win. there needs a counterpart in the opposite direction.
when there are no loser in forex, there are no winners. so its just the game, same in poker.

offcourse, there are additionally aspects that kill retail traders accounts fast:
- flash crashs
- brokers busting
- technical errors
- human errors

but some of this problem can also be good if you are on the right site of the market offcourse, there will be a winner too for each loss. without brokers busting.
  • #217
  • Jan 24, 2017 6:43am Jan 24, 2017 6:43am
Mark Douglas book "the disciplined trader" and Brett Steenbarger book "daily trading coach" are great resources for improving discipline. They helped me lots!
  • #218
  • Jan 24, 2017 1:54pm Jan 24, 2017 1:54pm
Quoting hanover
coin toss and casino-type games have predictably calculable odds, whereas markets -- which always consist of a mix of anonymous participants whose agendas are unknown to the retail trader -- lack this uniformity
That's not entirely true Hanover.

Any profitable trading system has its own predictable mathematical expectancy too, which is simply the average profit per trade.
Some systems make $500 profit per trade per lot/contract on average , while other more robust systems make $1000 per trade and so forth.

Granted, this average profit can vary from time to time but not that much.
  • #219
  • Jan 24, 2017 3:25pm Jan 24, 2017 3:25pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
{quote} That's not entirely true Hanover. Any profitable trading system has its own predictable mathematical expectancy too, which is simply the average profit per trade. Some systems make $500 profit per trade per lot/contract on average , while other more robust systems make $1000 per trade and so forth. Granted, this average profit can vary from time to time but not that much.

Good Day Mr Breakout

On a associated subject are you familiar with Barclay's not the bank I do not think , however what they do monthly is rate all traders in all categories as long as they manage over One Million Dollars US and the second category is from Ten Million up. Going back to the start of the year 2000 , you rarely see one of the Top Forex Traders stay in the Top Ten in any category more than one or two years in a row. Fast forward to the last few years on a 12 month basis occasionally you see the Top Ten reach around 60% ROI. Return On Investment.

I use my standard goal of reaching 5% a month each and every month of trading Forex as long as the minimum trading Capital is $50,000 US Dollars.

Is there anyone that averages 5% a month or better that you know, yourself included or any Forex Trader that posted or still posts on Forex Factory ?

I ask the question for my own personal reason since I have been doing that for the last 5 years and of course I understand why my results are such.

Today the markets were Risk On and yet there was no change in the STATUS QUO except the markets returned to PERCEPTION and forgot REALITY.

The markets go back and forth between REALITY and PERCEPTION or Risk Off and Risk On.

A Most Fascinating business. My assumption right or wrong is that you are an excellent Forex Trader and the reason that I say that is that you are consistent and stick to your views based on your own experience and understandings.

Take care.


Benjaminis
  • #220
  • Jan 24, 2017 3:42pm Jan 24, 2017 3:42pm
Quoting hanover
@TooSlow, @Mr Breakout: I'm not trying to be a kiss-ass, but you guys are both correct. You merely have a different perspective on what the word "random" means. I recognize this because randomness is often discussed in trading forums, and this type of confusion in terminology inevitably occurs. If I understand correctly.......  Mr Breakout shares my own definition of "random", as also implicit in 'expectancy theory' that's understood by statisticians and professional gamblers. If the market was a completely random walk -- i.e. if price had...
Robert Ringer calls this the “Definition Game” in Looking Out for Number One. Here’s how it’s played:
We are all involuntary participants in the Definition Game. Because each of us is a unique human being with varying desires, tastes, prejudices, experiences and personality traits, we see things differently. . . What further complicates the game is that people have a habit of changing their definitions as they go along.
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