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The Really Useless Thread

  • #147,161
  • Edited 8:59am Jan 23, 2017 8:32am | Edited 8:59am
Major announcements from Trump. Making a mockery of all institutions in the US that work on economic policy....we have border taxes, devaluation, protectionism, currency, trade, political and economic threats ...and what have you ...US suddenly in only days starting to sound more like a banana republic (it reminds me of Chavez a bit) rather than the 'leader of free trade and the free world'.

NY triggering choose your poison time in the Euro and more importantly updates for the Dollar side after that,

--> Changing short term outlook in Dollar for strong buy to extreme Buy.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,162
  • Jan 23, 2017 8:32am Jan 23, 2017 8:32am
I might be wrong but I have a imminent breakdown alert in eu ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #147,163
  • Jan 23, 2017 8:50am Jan 23, 2017 8:50am
TPP was no mystery of course. And scrapping a deal before it's made is naturally different than 'renegotiating' the existing NAFTA. He certainly has wasted no time on this initial talk. Should get interesting from here out.
  • #147,164
  • Jan 23, 2017 9:00am Jan 23, 2017 9:00am
Possible micro squeeze setting up. Could mark the line for 700 EU for now.
  • #147,165
  • Jan 23, 2017 9:41am Jan 23, 2017 9:41am
interesting to see that he did not back down on basically anything he promised. and hes rolling very fast with his policies.

on the boarder text adjustment. just in case anyone needs the basic economic theory behind it. it helped me to get the basics straight. see the article:

http://taxfoundation.org/blog/exchan...der-adjustment
  • #147,166
  • Edited 1:49pm Jan 23, 2017 10:09am | Edited 1:49pm
Quoting janpec1000
Possible micro squeeze setting up. Could mark the line for 700 EU for now.
There we go with nice squeeze, setting some short dollar entries on gold and EU. (0714 EU and 1211 gold). This is very short term or better to say micro term entry, not expecting anything more than that. Counter swipe now could be much more interesting though, opening agressive dollar move, lets see.

EDIT: Tracking EU 0706 on dollar side tomorrow. Another one is 0755 if we get agressive flip it could start there, though for now there is nothing good on balance of probabilities. Completing both of them however would trigger the perfect run afterwards.
  • #147,167
  • Jan 23, 2017 10:14am Jan 23, 2017 10:14am
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don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #147,168
  • Jan 23, 2017 10:14am Jan 23, 2017 10:14am
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don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #147,169
  • Jan 23, 2017 10:16am Jan 23, 2017 10:16am
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don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #147,170
  • Jan 23, 2017 11:09am Jan 23, 2017 11:09am
Quoting sisse
Major announcements from Trump. Making a mockery of all institutions in the US that work on economic policy....we have border taxes, devaluation, protectionism, currency, trade, political and economic threats ...and what have you ...US suddenly in only days starting to sound more like a banana republic (it reminds me of Chavez a bit) rather than the 'leader of free trade and the free world'. NY triggering choose your poison time in the Euro and more importantly updates for the Dollar side after that, --> Changing short term outlook in Dollar for...
I am a long time lurker and giving all my respect and gratitude for your hard work commentating and teaching the less informed traders .
Thank you!
I know that your long term view FA and TA is strong USD via rate hikes etc. Can you please elaborate though why the protectionalism and Trump's idiotic (pardon my french) policies are also a USD positive?
I would assume cutting ties with the world economy are bad for the US economy and as you said- this always leads to bad things..
Is it not possible that this scenario will change the long term (or mid term) outlook and cause a weak USD (Sell USD) ?
From a look at the charts- we are also at an important area 1.0740 Yearly pivot point next is 1.0840 and then we can get the mother of short squeezes to 1.10/1.11 and if things continue to de-escalate who knows? Anything is possible in forex- maybe 1.200 on the cards before a drop back down to 0.98...
Maybe i am hallucinating?

Appreciate your input and thanks again
  • #147,171
  • Jan 23, 2017 11:14am Jan 23, 2017 11:14am
Quoting Bud Foxx
{quote} I am a long time lurker and giving all my respect and gratitude for your hard work commentating and teaching the less informed traders . Thank you! I know that your long term view FA and TA is strong USD via rate hikes etc. Can you please elaborate though why the protectionalism and Trump's idiotic (pardon my french) policies are also a USD positive? I would assume cutting ties with the world economy are bad for the US economy and as you said- this always leads to bad things.. Is it not possible that this scenario will change the long term...
I was reading the article @chester123 linked to a few posts above here. It answers some of your questions.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #147,172
  • Jan 23, 2017 11:30am Jan 23, 2017 11:30am
Quoting chester123
interesting to see that he did not back down on basically anything he promised. and hes rolling very fast with his policies. on the boarder text adjustment. just in case anyone needs the basic economic theory behind it. it helped me to get the basics straight. see the article: http://taxfoundation.org/blog/exchan...der-adjustment
One thing you arent getting with Trump for sure is a politican. He isnt about words. This isnt usual promise and then rollover play like in most elections, should have been clear since he started campaign. Then only thing that however does stays in air are the "brakes" or certain aparatus/goverment cogs that are set in place to still prevent certain actions to take place no matter how much president wants them. Think this more of like Grexit play, radical policy moves but not neceseraly all will be completed, market will price them on bear side (expectations), but they wont necesarily all come to fruition.
  • #147,173
  • Jan 23, 2017 11:38am Jan 23, 2017 11:38am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} I was reading the article @chester123 linked to a few posts above here. It answers some of your questions.
yep, understood.
Thank you pointing the article out.
I have a BA in Finance but unfortunately this macroeconomic stuff evaporated from my brain long ago
  • #147,174
  • Edited 12:18pm Jan 23, 2017 11:48am | Edited 12:18pm
Quoting Bud Foxx
{quote} yep, understood. Thank you pointing the article out. I have a BA in Finance but unfortunately this macroeconomic stuff evaporated from my brain long ago
This is almost like "Blue Horseshoe Loves Anacott Steel" Or more correct "Blue horseshoe Loves USD"
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #147,175
  • Jan 23, 2017 2:41pm Jan 23, 2017 2:41pm
who's crazy enough to buy us equities at all time highs ? something we don't know, or bankster are that stupid ?

it looks like a distribution to weak hands before massive fall
Make money by doing the opposite of Giveachance aka loser
  • #147,176
  • Jan 23, 2017 3:04pm Jan 23, 2017 3:04pm
A rather soft day in trading in contrast of the huge news that are taking place in front our eyes.

US Equities literally in a flat line balancing now wishing greed short term via Trump short term cash splash and fear of what is cooking in the world economy.

Nothing but pure insanity what is going in the develop western world. Most markets analyst, experts and pretty much any investor/trader with more than 2 neurones are rather bemuse more than whats is happening but actually what is going to happend....

As per today greed short term still will prevail in a blind manic exhaustion leg before we enter in the new playing field for trading. Equities in desperate need of good news to move from the comatose action.

On the rest of the board, commodities like usual happily riding conflict, risk and warmonger US and there are the only one behaving in normal flows. On the FX board, Dollar still very heavy and Euro bulls holding steady and chopping all day long around 1.073x.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,177
  • Jan 23, 2017 3:35pm Jan 23, 2017 3:35pm
...and that was pretty much it for the day with a very important highlight.

Dollar completing the full retrace and entering in major mid term 'choose your poison time'. It's crunching time in the DX 99.4x naked after todays moves. 101.7x is the rain maker for 105.7x and beyond.

Trump triggering a selloff in Dollar taking the 99.xx handle unlocks a WTF moment across the FX board as the move can extend as low as 95.7x in one quick and sharp move. Key levels in play these next few sessions.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,178
  • Jan 23, 2017 3:47pm Jan 23, 2017 3:47pm
Quoting sisse
...and that was pretty much it for the day with a very important highlight. Dollar completing the full retrace and entering in major mid term 'choose your poison time'. It's crunching time in the DX 99.4x naked after todays moves. 101.7x is the rain maker for 105.7x and beyond. Trump triggering a selloff in Dollar taking the 99.xx handle unlocks a WTF moment across the FX board as the move can extend as low as 95.7x in one quick and sharp move. Key levels in play these next few sessions. sisse
0755 taken in fumes of NY. Things could go haywire from now. 0752 was no brainer but now we could be triggering large (less probable, altough on handle of catalysts not so much) move. Its like a frigate with 100 ready cannons, but no man on board, ready for a big squeeze. Key micro levels on bear side of dollar all holding in last two sessions never a good bull sign.

0708, 0760, 08X.
The only thing to flip that would be major swipe now to get 0708. Anything else has upwards game.
  • #147,179
  • Jan 23, 2017 3:49pm Jan 23, 2017 3:49pm
..and now Euro now completing the full retrace for the roll confirming the 'choose your poison time' form the earlier in the morning. Lots of air if we broke above these levels that extend as high as 1.084x without much in between ....

For those who have asked just a quick short term chart update ...

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sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,180
  • Jan 23, 2017 3:59pm Jan 23, 2017 3:59pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} 0755 taken in fumes of NY. Things could go haywire from now. 0752 was no brainer but now we could be triggering large (less probable, altough on handle of catalysts not so much) move. Its like a frigate with 100 ready cannons, but no man on board, ready for a big squeeze. Key micro levels on bear side of dollar all holding in last two sessions never a good bull sign. 0708, 0760, 08X. The only thing to flip that would be major swipe now to get 0708. Anything else has upwards game.
Brexit noise, UK talking heads BS and Trump Tweets ruling markets not economics neither fundamentals.... as fun as it seems in the short term, markets and economic forces will prevail at the end and for the way the Trumpeters and the Brexiters are leading the world we are set for tears, lots of tears in the mid term and beyond...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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