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The Really Useless Thread

  • #147,121
  • Jan 20, 2017 4:06am Jan 20, 2017 4:06am
Quoting sisse
European session will be over at the top of next hour and after that is all the politics for inauguration day. Expecting a rather dull and boring session with an early close. Not much to see or do across the board with same levels, same trades, same all.... sisse {quote} lol mate. You don't have much experience in international trade agreements, do you?.... Rest of the world in terms of trade only means China and US (the rest are NZ and a bunch of very poor Commonwealth countries and islands) . Both are HUGE monster countries for a puny and tiny...
And in practice all small businesses in UK that sell products to abroad ( inside EU ) will have a stop of majority off their orders over night . I speak from experience from the other side of the table. We are importing things from other EU countrys. Goods come to our warehouse just as we was ordering locally. With import from outside of EU ( Even like Norway that is EEC member ) Hell with bureaucracy is on. Custom brokers for every small part imported. Delays, transit inside EU if first country inside EU goods arrive to is not the final destination county in EU . Because of this we try to order as much as possible from inside the EU. When UK goes outside even if they should get an good deal with EU I know that we will avoid to order from UK where it is alternatives just because off the extra paper work needed ( and extra cost to custom brokers etc ) So in basic that will stop all small trade from UK to EU countrys ) single orders 500 to 5.000 Euro ) . I do not know how much of the exports from UK is small orders but most of this will stop over night once UK is not member anymore.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #147,122
  • Edited 4:54am Jan 20, 2017 4:40am | Edited 4:54am
I agree with you all that will be a tough time for the UK but I think they will try to revive the old EFTA agreements. It was the pre EU Trade Agreements. Switzerland, Lichtenstein, Norway and Iceland still work work with that agreements. Trade technically not that much changes. I worry way more over capital flow.
Brussel will not let allow UK to build up an tax heaven next to thier door. they closed almost every hole within the EU with showing the OECD Blacklist Bann Hammer.

Quoting Earleone
{quote} .... Goods come to our warehouse just as we was ordering locally. With import from outside of EU ( Even like Norway that is EEC member ) Hell with bureaucracy is on. Custom brokers for every small part imported....
Can not agree completly with this. For trade with EFTA States the customs documentation is around 1-2 docs per preforma Invoice. not really the complicated ones and will be mostly issued by the carrier. charges from the carrier (if charged )are in germany arround 15-25 EUR per whole carrierunit for this kind of work and it takes for a professional arround 10 minutes to issue. as i was a trainee in Supply Chain Managment I did it almost daily. But where I can of course agree with you status now is way more comfortable with no documentation at all
  • #147,123
  • Jan 20, 2017 5:55am Jan 20, 2017 5:55am
Quoting PipJet
.....EFTA States the customs documentation is around 1-2 docs per preforma Invoice. not really the complicated ones and will be mostly issued by the carrier. charges from the carrier (if charged )are in germany arround 15-25 EUR per whole carrierunit for this kind of work and it takes for a professional arround 10 minutes to issue. as i was a trainee in Supply Chain Managment I did it almost daily. But where I can of course agree with you status now is way more comfortable with no documentation at all
Yes, but for small orders people and company prefer no documents at all, I or we ar not different to other in this. Take Amazon.co.uk as an example. I will never order anything from there for my company or personally if there is custom to be done ( which it always will be for companys whatever the order size is ) As a private person I can do as long as the total amount will be below limit size for vat or custom to be paid for import . But then it will be much easyer for us to use amazon.de ( they even has the pages in english now ) . It is just an example and I am qte sure that the small businesses in UK will loose most of their re-export to abroad. I do not know the numbers for export from UK businesses for small orders but I believe that it is a big part of the total exports.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #147,124
  • Jan 20, 2017 6:36am Jan 20, 2017 6:36am
Quoting sisse
. Once the current short term politics settle down and the emotional arguments are over (and they will as they alway do in a few years), history will remember him as one of the best performer US President in history and thats is officially not a theory but a FACT now. Credit where is due. sisse
And for some balance


Inserted Video
Once You See, You Can't Unsee But You Will Get The Odd Poke In The Eye
  • #147,125
  • Edited 7:16am Jan 20, 2017 6:54am | Edited 7:16am
Quoting Stu Effex
{quote} And for some balance https://youtu.be/VsWzfhvvOgg
Dude kind of gives himself up by calling Obama an "Affirmative Action President" don't you think? Hard for me to take seriously after that anyway.

This one gets my vote for "balance":

https://www.google.com/amp/seekingal...ce-1949-charts
  • #147,126
  • Jan 20, 2017 7:07am Jan 20, 2017 7:07am
Undershoot in UK numbers in a rather uneventful European session. NY opening to kill the day.

sisse

Quoting PipJet
I agree with you all that will be a tough time for the UK but I think they will try to revive the old EFTA agreements. It was the pre EU Trade Agreements. Switzerland, Lichtenstein, Norway and Iceland still work work with that agreements. ....
We are going too far from trading but a bit of background for those interested in international trade agreements while we wait for NY

--> Issue is that EFTA countries pay its contributions for the EU, they all part of Schengen and all adhere to the playing EU field in order to trade.....the UK is announcing that wont follow any rules, or cooperate agreements with anybody anywhere. Leaving the Island in the same position as Belarus and the such in terms of trade in the continent.

Shameful really from a country that gave the world free trade and Adam Smith.

--> Let not go too far in to international trade details but in general the main problem on top more duties, bureaucracy, less market access, less opportunities, less business , and less everything when you are an Island that depends on imports and decide to shut the doors to the neighbours and the world is that you will have to suck it up all the BS that happens from the big players.

--> In international trade: SIZE MATTERS. If you have ever been in Brussels, Washington or Beijing for that matter you will know how painful is to be a small fish in trade negotiations. Ask any Swiss or Norwegian diplomat how painful is to receive by email even month the new regulations/directives for non EU trade partners....

--> Basically the problems is not only in terms of duties, taxes and bureaucracy but in terms of MARKET ACCESS and non Tariff Barriers.

 

  1. Next month the EU (or US) decides (as they usually do) to change the regulation on the size of mattress for health and safety reasons from products coming from outside the EU from Min Height: 123 to Min Height: 123.4 or whatever ...boom done your UK mattress factory is gone for a couple of years out of the market until you adjust to the new standards ,etc etc ....


--> You can say, well the UK can retaliate ...sure it can but it doesn't work when you are the little fish because, retaliation will bring back more and bigger retaliation in other sectors so internally they will be a lot of opposition from those industries that don't want to lose access to the largest and richest market in the world ...etc etc.

In Swiss diplomatic halls its call 'EMAIL Diplomacy", You receive now an then the new rules you need to comply without having anything to say or fight for ...basically you need to suck it up otherwise you lose access....

--> In simple words the UK is moving from position setter in trade to position taker .... which will be very expensive and stupidity at its max expression .... but well politics and politicians in control so ....

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,127
  • Jan 20, 2017 7:18am Jan 20, 2017 7:18am
Quoting sisse
.... --> Basically the problems is not only in terms of duties, taxes and bureaucracy but in terms of MARKET ACCESS and non Tariff Barriers. Next month the EU (or US) decides (as they usually do) to change the regulation on the size of mattress for health and safety reasons from products coming from outside the EU from Min Height: 123 to Min Height: 123.4 or whatever ...boom done your UK mattress factory is gone for a couple of years out of the market until you adjust to the new standards ,etc etc .... -
well very good example... never watched it from this perspective. Was only watching from logistics and customs view but yeah you are right.
  • #147,128
  • Jan 20, 2017 7:45am Jan 20, 2017 7:45am
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Dude kind of gives himself up by calling Obama an "Affirmative Action President" don't you think? Hard for me to take seriously after that anyway. This one gets my vote for "balance": https://www.google.com/amp/seekingal...ce-1949-charts

So you didn't listen to all the detail. Perhaps you need to be in safe space first to take it all in and maybe wrap yourself with a nice cozy blanket too.

And your balance is a hard-on for S&P ? Focus on the "Ugly" details of that page.

This place turned into a den full of Bed Wetting, namby pamby, hand holding nut cutlet munchers.

I voted leave EU too.

Red Flag protectors can step in and ban me now
Once You See, You Can't Unsee But You Will Get The Odd Poke In The Eye
  • #147,129
  • Jan 20, 2017 7:47am Jan 20, 2017 7:47am
Quoting sisse
--> In international trade: SIZE MATTERS. If you have ever been in Brussels, Washington or Beijing for that matter you will know how painful is to be a small fish in trade negotiations. Ask any Swiss or Norwegian diplomat how painful is to receive by email even month the new regulations/directives for non EU trade partners....

--> Basically the problems is not only in terms of duties, taxes and bureaucracy but in terms of MARKET ACCESS and non Tariff Barriers.

 

  1. Next month the EU (or US) decides (as they usually

...

spot on
  • #147,130
  • Jan 20, 2017 8:12am Jan 20, 2017 8:12am
Quoting Stu Effex
{quote} And for some balance https://youtu.be/VsWzfhvvOgg
I did watch the entire video. It is completely correct - factually. Americans have also been bombarded with Obama's popularity this week. These pollsters are the same ones that told us Brexit was DOA and that Hillary would be the big winner. Internals of the two main polls showed that only 23 -25% of those polled were republicans. Same pollsters, same bs, asme all.
Defending Truth, Capitalism and the US Constitution
  • #147,131
  • Jan 20, 2017 8:21am Jan 20, 2017 8:21am
Quoting Stu Effex
{quote} So you didn't listen to all the detail. Perhaps you need to be in safe space first to take it all in and maybe wrap yourself with a nice cozy blanket too. And your balance is a hard-on for S&P ? Focus on the "Ugly" details of that page. This place turned into a den full of Bed Wetting, namby pamby, hand holding nut cutlet munchers. I voted leave EU too. Red Flag protectors can step in and ban me now
Ok. Never mind. Have a nice day.
  • #147,132
  • Jan 20, 2017 10:18am Jan 20, 2017 10:18am
Interesting opening range. Equities and Commodities on the move joining Treasuries from earlier in the week.

Only Dollar painfully slow this week. Euro also looks extremely narrow and tired crashing against 1.066x for 5 weeks in a row. Current levels are unsustainable for much longer and area looks set to give up in the next couple of sessions. I wouldn't be surprised if we got a runner after the fix....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,133
  • Jan 20, 2017 10:33am Jan 20, 2017 10:33am
Surreal watching this live .... a few years ago one may have thought was the end of the Apprentice season XXVII ...god save America and I honestly hope I am wrong with this one ...because it looks rather scary what it could happen ...

Keep eyes on market 'just in case' in the next few minutes...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,134
  • Jan 20, 2017 10:34am Jan 20, 2017 10:34am
any maps for particular session (trump inauguration).... any1 ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #147,135
  • Jan 20, 2017 10:37am Jan 20, 2017 10:37am
Quoting primejarvis
any maps for particular session (trump inauguration).... any1 ...
Not really beyond what is already in play.

Only a very random comment but not expecting anything ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,136
  • Jan 20, 2017 10:44am Jan 20, 2017 10:44am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Not really beyond what is already in play. Only a very random comment but not expecting anything ... sisse
expanded my S/l to a much greater extent with making lots of lower volume .... t/p all set and wont even touch it lets c whether trump is going to give me some money to get a beer for me and members of the thread ... one extra for sisse ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #147,137
  • Jan 20, 2017 11:03am Jan 20, 2017 11:03am
Heads up just in case...DJ 20000, Dollar 105.xx

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,138
  • Jan 20, 2017 11:06am Jan 20, 2017 11:06am
dont know why but i have a feeling that we will again get a run during thin hours just before market close ..... really dont see anything before that ...

correct me if i am wrong ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #147,139
  • Jan 20, 2017 11:11am Jan 20, 2017 11:11am
...and here we go...protectionism at centre stage in the US for the first time in history and infrastructure spending on the go. As long as it doesn't mention Dollar ... we are set to confirm what we already know.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,140
  • Jan 20, 2017 11:16am Jan 20, 2017 11:16am
Important updates although widely anticipate since last month from the US:

--> Changing long term outlook in US Equities from buy to neutral

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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