Pivot Trading

why not move SL higher to protect more profit?

Thanks buddy for the charts.I anticipate wild moves today during Trump's speech.Overall market is little chaotic then normal.We'll see how it unfolds.If must I will take the loss on AC
regards

Here is the Truth.I keep some funds for emergency situations that should arise either I cut the losers or add to my account to give trades a time.There is set amount $$ I am willing to allow DD which after I cut it. EA came real close but rebounded up and things are looking lot better.
So far up 10% for the month but do have good chunk DD that I will chip away.I don't know if this helps you but overall my strategy is trade small and plan for the worse scenario.
Hope this helps you

or google it.People like spoon feeding.

I'm a big fan of shorting the AC or NC at the moment as well. They always need some breathing space to work.

Hope it all goes your way......

many thanks for your response. But what I mean is how do you monitor when funds are moving from one currency to another, sometimes I use equities ETFs but just want your thoughts.

Thank you

No specific site Berry just my experience.AUD and NZD traditionally has been carry over trades and usually 1st refuge when uncertainty prevail.Looking how AUD and NZD surged last week it was obvious that lots of funds were moving on them since there were no real stats or fundy news.Conclusion was obvious.
regards

Many thanks Davit.

last week of the month, Aussie better slip down.
Have a good day everyone .

Update on UCAD

Good evening pivoters

AJ finally going south and UJ as well.USD still in uncertain territory before Trump clarifies what he wants to do.

good probability trade

Hi Davit, for EA, my target on 1.42xx or 1.44xx.
What do you think?

been holding this for a while and yes 1.44 or close to it.
China growth is weakest now and I think Aussie might start sliding.
Honestly recent Aussie surge was unexpected for me.Luckily my troops are unharmed

Okay Davit, many thanks, now im sure about my target
And i always like how you talk about fundamental things

http://abcnews.go.com/International/...looms-44911544
China's Growth in 2016 Slumps as Trump Trade Struggle Looms
I see big possibility of Euro and Yen getting stronger 1st Quarter as uncertainty with Trump policies looms.Which means Aussie and NZD taking a backseat
If you look at the charts both seem already hit the ceiling

going to bed guys.Will see you later in the morning NY times
green pips
AC going down nicely...

For those who want to watch the videos are still online check post #5491

Whatzzup , been looking for these video's for two weeks !!!! Thank you , thank you , thank you !!! To all NEWBIE TRADERS , commit the lessons about mindset to your memory !!! Say , "THANKS" to whatzzup. HEED the recommendation by DAVIT , to watch these videos !!! I believe that these videos are an ABSOLUTE MUST for any serious trader. Many , many thanks to whatzzup and Davit !!

TRADING IN THE ZONE - MARK DOUGLAS


1. Anything can happen.
Why? Because there are always unknown forces operating in every market at every moment, it takes only one trader somewhere in the world to negate the positive outcome of your edge. That's all: only one. Regardless of how much time, effort, or money you've invested in your analysis, from the market's perspective there are no exceptions to this truth. Any exceptions that may exist in your mind will be a source of conflict and potentially cause you to perceive market information as threatening.

2. You don't need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money.
Why? Because there is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge. (See number 3.) In other words, based on the past performance of your edge, you may know that out of the next 20 trades, 12 will be winners and 8 will be losers. What you don't know is the sequence of wins and losses or how much money the market is going to make available on the winning trades. This truth makes trading a probability or numbers game. When you really believe that trading is simply a probability game, concepts like right and wrong or win and lose no longer have the same significance. As a result, your expectations will be in harmony with the possibilities. Keep in mind that nothing has more potential to cause emotional discord than our unfulfilled expectations. Emotional pain is the universal response when the outside world expresses itself in a way that doesn't reflect what we expect or believe to be true. As a result, any market information that does not confirm our expectations is automatically defined and interpreted as threatening. That interpretation causes us to adopt a negatively charged, defensive state of mind, where we end up creating the very experience we are trying to avoid. Market information is only threatening if you are expecting the market to do something for you. Otherwise, if you don't expect the market to make you right, you have no reason to be afraid of being wrong. If you don't expect the market to make you a winner, you have no reason to be afraid of losing. If you don't expect the market to keep going in your direction indefinitely, there is no reason to leave money on the table. Finally, if you don't expect to be able to take advantage of every opportunity just because you perceived it and it presented itself, you have no reason to be afraid of missing out. On the other hand, if you believe that all you need to know is:
1. the odds are in your favor before you put on a trade;
2. how much it's going to cost to find out if the trade is going to work;
3. you don't need to know what's going to happen next to make money on that trade; and
4. anything can happen;

Then how can the market make you wrong? What information could the market generate about itself that would cause your pain-avoidance mechanisms to kick in so that you exclude that information from your awareness? None that I can think of. If you believe that anything can happen and that you don't need to know what is going to happen next to make money, then you will always be right. Your expectations will always be in harmony with the conditions as they exist from the market's perspective, effectively neutralizing your potential to experience emotional pain. By the same token, how can a losing trade or even a series of losers have the typical negative effect, if you really believe that trading is a probability or numbers game? If your edge puts the odds in your favor, then every loss puts you that much closer to a win. When you really believe this, your response to a losing trade will no longer take on a negative emotional quality.

3. There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge.
If every loss puts you that much closer to a win, you will be looking forward to the next occurrence of your edge, ready and waiting to jump in without the slightest reservation or hesitation. On the other hand, if you still believe that trading is about analysis or about being right, then after a loss you will anticipate the occurrence of your next edge with trepidation, wondering if it's going to work. This, in turn, will cause you to start gathering evidence for or against the trade. You will gather evidence for the trade if your fear of missing out is greater than your fear of losing. And you will gather information against the trade if your fear of losing is greater than your fear of missing out. In either case, you will not be in the most conducive state of mind to produce consistent results.

4. An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another.
Creating consistency requires that you completely accept that trading isn't about hoping, wondering, or gathering evidence one way or the other to determine if the next trade is going to work. The only evidence you need to gather is whether the variables you use to define an edge are present at any given moment. When you use "other" information, outside the parameters of your edge to decide whether you will take the trade, you are adding random variables to your trading regime.
Adding random variables makes it extremely difficult, if not impossible, to determine what works and what doesn't. If you're never certain about the viability of your edge, you won't feel too confident about it. To whatever degree you lack confidence, you will experience fear. The irony is, you will be afraid of random, inconsistent results, without realizing that your random, inconsistent approach is creating exactly what you are afraid of. On the other hand, if you believe that an edge is simply a higher probability of one thing happening over another, and there's a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge, why would you gather "other" evidence for or against a trade? To a trader operating out of these two beliefs, gathering "other" evidence wouldn't make any sense. Or let me put it this way: Gathering "other" evidence makes about as much sense as trying to determine whether the next flip of a coin will be heads, after the last ten flips came up tails. Regardless of what evidence you find to support heads coming up, there is still a 50-percent chance that the next flip will come up tails. By the same token, regardless of how much evidence you gather to support acting or not acting on a trade, it still only takes one trader somewhere in the world to negate the validity of any, if not all, of your evidence. The point is why bother! If the market is offering you a legitimate edge, determine the risk and take the trade.

5. Every moment in the market is unique.
Take a moment and think about the concept of uniqueness. "Unique" means not like anything else that exists or has ever existed. As much as we may understand the concept of uniqueness, our minds don't deal with it very well on a practical level. As we have already discussed, our minds are hardwired to automatically associate (without conscious awareness) anything in the exterior environment that is similar to anything that is already inside of us in the form of a memory, belief, or attitude. This creates an inherent contradiction between the way we naturally think about the world and the way the world exists. No two moments in the external environment will ever exactly duplicate themselves. To do so, every atom or every molecule would have to be in the exact same position they were in some previous moment.
Not a very likely possibility. Yet, based on the way our minds are designed to process information, we will experience the "now moment" in the environment as being exactly the same as some previous moment as it exists inside our minds. If each moment is like no other, then there's nothing at the level of your rational experience that can tell you for sure that you "know" what will happen next. So I will say again, why bother trying to know?! When you try to know, you are, in essence, trying to be right. I am not implying here that you can't predict what the market will do next and be right, because you most certainly can. It's in the trying that you run into all of the problems. If you believe that you correctly predicted the market once, you will naturally try to do it again. As a result, your mind will automatically start scanning the market for the same pattern, circumstance, or situation that existed the last time you correctly predicted its movement. When you find it, your state of mind will make it seem as if everything is exactly as it was the last time. The problem is that, from the market's perspective, it is not the same. As a result, you are setting yourself up for disappointment. What separates the best traders from all the rest is that they have trained their minds to believe in the uniqueness of each moment (although this training usually takes the form of losing several fortunes before they "really" believe in the concept of uniqueness). This belief acts as a counteracting force, neutralizing the automatic association mechanism. When you truly believe that each moment is unique, then by definition there isn't anything in your mind for the association mechanism to link that moment to. This belief acts as an internal force causing you to disassociate the "now" moment in the market from any previous moment filed away in your mental environment. The stronger your belief in the uniqueness of each moment, the lower your potential to associate. The lower your potential to associate, the more open your mind will be to perceive what the market is offering you from its perspective.

I agree, and it does in fact seem like au and nu hit the ceiling, however, we should also keep in mind that they might stay relatively supported during trumpcertainty as investors scramble for yield, by looking at the charts and like you mentioned a ton of funds hit nu and au lately, as long as trumpcertainty takes centre stage, those funds might hold on to the yield.